What In The World Is Going On With The Atlanta Braves?

I was putting the finishing touches on my “Week in Football” blog (which you can find here, in case you missed it) on Monday, when I felt a loud vibration from my phone. I quickly glanced over and noticed that it was from the Major League Baseball App, informing me that the Atlanta Braves had traded Gold Glove winning outfielder Jason Heyward to the St. Louis Cardinals for starting pitcher Shelby Miller. I was surprised, but I was also preoccupied with something else, so I quickly texted my Angry Old Man, a fellow Braves’ fan, to ask him if he’d heard the news, before going back to writing. It wasn’t until hours later that I fully began to digest exactly what that trade meant, or what I thought it meant: the Braves were cleaning house, a rebuild was on the way, and things might get to Philadelphia 76ers we-don’t-care-about-winning-level bad. Ok, maybe not that bad, but still.

 

“Rebuilding”, “bad”, and “76ers” isn’t something I’ve ever associated with the Braves. As a 21 year old, I was fortunate to miss the 1970s and ‘80s, a time that saw Atlanta go through 15 losing seasons, appear in the playoffs only one time, and have zero playoff victories. See, I was born at just the right time, when the Braves were one of the best organizations in baseball, making the playoffs every year. In 1995, when I was two years old, Atlanta won the World Series, and they subsequently appeared in the playoffs every year until 2006, when I was 13. And even when they missed the playoffs 4 straight years from ’06 to ‘09, they never completely committed to a rebuild and blew everything up, and they did almost everything they could to win each season.

 

But the trade of the J Hey Kid to St. Louis represented a shift and a different way of thinking in the Atlanta organization, as did the continuing rumors that both Evan Gattis and Justin Upton (who will forever be known as the Better Upton, to clear up any confusion with his brother, BJ, who will now be known as the Worse Upton) would be traded if the right deal came along.

 

In all honesty, once I got beyond the shock of the Heyward trade, I wasn’t completely disappointed that he was dealt. Yes, I realize he was the Braves’ best defensive outfielder, but if we were being honest with ourselves, hasn’t he been also been a disappointment? For all the hype and excitement surrounding this guy when he came up (including this resounding home run in his first big league at bat), he never developed into the power hitting, clean up, build-your-lineup-around-him type of hitter he was expected to become. He only hit 11 home runs this year, and through 681 career games, he sits at a disappointingly low 84 blasts over the fence. He’s never had a season over 100 RBIs (his high for a year was 82, in 2012), and he’s never had a year in which he batted over .300 (his high for a season was .277, his rookie year in 2010). And yes, I realize he hit in leadoff spot a lot recently for Atlanta, which hurt his power numbers, but I’d argue he was slotted there because he wasn’t consistently hitting the ball with enough power to justify sticking him in the middle of the order.



So why not deal him for someone like Miller, who had a pretty impressive rookie season in 2013 (15-9, 3.06 ERA). It’s not like the Braves couldn’t use the pitching. Don’t forget that three of their “arms of the future” a few years ago have all had multiple Tommy John surgeries. Starters Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy had their second Tommy John procedures this season, and their left handed flamethrower out of the bullpen ,Jonny Venters. just had the surgery for the THIRD time. Three times! The prospects aren’t very good for pitchers coming off their second surgery; Of the 40 pitchers who have had the surgery multiple times, 10 of them have had the procedure recently enough that they either haven’t had enough appearances to give us anything really conclusive about their careers, or they haven’t pitched at all, leaving us with just 30 subjects. And of the 30, current Royals’ reliever Jason Frasor has probably had the most success, as he’s appeared in 647 games (all in relief), and now, at age 36, is coming off a 2014 season in which saw him finish the year with a 1.53 ERA for the World Series runner ups. But Frasor had both of his Tommy John surgeries before he ever made his major league debut, and while he’s a solid MLB reliever, he’s never been a dominant, All Star-caliber pitcher. Plus, Frasor has always come out of the bullpen, and both Medlen and Beachy are starters, something Atlanta will probably need them to do if they can remain healthy. The most successful starting pitcher after two Tommy John surgeries has unquestionably been current free agent Chris Capuano. He had his second surgery in 2008, didn’t make it back until 2010, and didn’t really return to being a full time starter until 2011. However, he did start 84 games from 2011-13 (and 105 total since his return), by far the most by a guy coming off his second Tommy John procedure. But like Frasor, Capuano has never been close to being a All Star-caliber pitcher. And if you just look at the names of guys who have “come back” from the second procedure, it’s a lot of guys like Victor Zambrano, Darren Dreifort, and Steve Ontiveros. Not exactly household names. And if Atlanta ends up getting two Capuanos and one Jason Frasor (which is probably being extremely optimistic), then they’re going to need some more arms. More than likely though, two out of the three, or all three, are done. And if that’s the case, they’ll definitely need some pitching, which is way more important than batting, by the way. I don’t have to go any further than this year’s postseason to illustrate that point. The Giants had one great starting pitcher, Madison Bumgarner, who nobody could hit, while Kansas City had a three headed monster in the bullpen that made everybody swing and miss throughout the entire postseason. It made sense that they met in the World Series. Teams like the Angels, who had a bunch of legitimate bats, but not many great arms, lost in the Divisional playoffs, as did the Dodgers, who had the best lineup in the National League, but a below average bullpen and poor pitching from their ace, Clayton Kershaw.

 

Those pitching injuries, as well as Atlanta’s high number of strikeouts last season, cost them dearly in 2014. The only thing that’s happened more times in the last two years than Braves’ strikeouts is Jameis Winston’s number of incidents with police in Tallahassee. In 2014, Atlanta struck out 1,369 times, the fourth most in baseball, and in 2013, they struck out 1,384 times, the third most. In fact, since the 1990 baseball season, only one team, the 2004 Red Sox, have finished in the top five in most strikeouts and won the World Series. Interestingly enough, during that same stretch, 13 teams have won the title while finishing in the top ten in fewest strikeouts. And these K’s haven’t come accidentally, as they’ve employed a bunch of free swingers the last two seasons, including guys like Dan Uggla (211 in 184 games), the Worse Upton (324 in 267 games, and a batting average of .198! .198!), the Better Upton (332 in 303 games), and Heyward (171 in 253 games); even their “low strikeout guys”, Freddie Freeman and Chris Johnson, struck out 145 and 159 times respectively, this season. Atlanta had 4 players in the top ten in strikeouts in National League in 2014, and 3 in the top 5 in 2013. Throw in guys like Evan Gattis (97 in 108 games this year) and  it’s easy to see why Atlanta came up short in the Divisional Playoffs in 2013, and had their first losing record since 2008 this season. Granted, I’m not saying it’s a problem to have a few guys on your roster that strikeout a lot. You need some pop and power in your lineup, and guys that are capable of hitting 40 home runs in a season tend to swing and miss more often, because they’re trying to drive the ball out of the yard on more pitches. One or two of those high strikeout guys is fine. But five or six? That’s too many. Ideally, you’d want as many consistent, contact hitters in your order as possible. Putting the ball in play is so important (even if you don’t get on base), because oftentimes it gives the runners on base opportunities to move up a base, or even score. A strikeout gets you nowhere. Where are all the contact hitters in Atlanta? They don’t really have any.

 

Honestly, I don’t think they can win a World Series with this roster, the one constructed by former GM Frank Wren. It helps that they were able to get rid of Dan Uggla during the season, a guy who had the worst approach at the plate than anyone in baseball (he literally went up and just swung for the fences every single time at almost every single pitch. It probably would’ve been better for him to go up there with his eyes closed), but they’re still locked into that horrendous contract they gave the Worse Upton for THREE more seasons. The deal, originally signed after the 2012 season, was a 5 year, 75 million dollar overpayment that may have indirectly cost Wren his job. The Worse Upton has, as mentioned before, has batted .198, hit 21 home runs, had 61 RBIs, and collected 180 hits in two seasons as a Brave. Since his contract was back loaded, he’s brought home 27.1 million through the first two years of the deal, meaning he’s made:

 

• 1.29 million dollars per home run
• 444,262 dollars per RBI
• 150,555 dollars per hit

 

Just thinking about all that gave me a head injury. It’s one of the worst contracts in the history of sports, and one of the main reasons Atlanta has one playoff victory the last two years. If the Braves were going to deal anyone, I wish it would’ve been him, though there’s a better chance of the Duck Dynasty guys buying a Justin Bieber CD for their own listening pleasure than another Major League team throwing their hands up and saying, “Sure, we’d love to trade for, and pay, a .198 hitter 14.45 million in 2015, 15.45 million in 2016, and 16.45 million in 2017! Please, give him to us! WE MUST HAVE HIM!!!” So he’s probably stuck in Atlanta for the duration of that albatross of a contract. And I can’t wait to see how bad he slumps when his brother gets dealt. And “can’t wait” is definitely sarcasm, because he’s going to be abysmal, and I hate having that word associated with anyone or anything on my favorite teams. Could all of the starting pitchers in Atlanta hit for a higher average than him? I feel like it’s in play, and as bad as he’s been the last two seasons, I could believe any negative outcome for the Worse Upton next season. Could he have a season with less than 5 homers, less than 20 RBIs, and over 200 strikeouts? Sure, why not?

 

Just as a side note, I wish there were more dopey things people could gamble on. I myself hardly ever gamble on sports, but if Vegas started creating things like, “Over/under 40.5 stadium-wide boos at Turner Field for the Worse Upton this season”, I might start laying down some more cheddar. If I can bet on the number of times Verne Lundquist will chortle during a game, I should be able wager on something like that. And just for the record, I’d definitely take the over. He just needs to average a .5 boos per home game to get there. You’re going to tell me that the Worse Upton, in the middle of the season, on the seventh game of a ten game home stand, fresh off back-to-back-to-back games with 3 plus strikeouts, won’t start hearing it from the fans multiple times a game, as he goes up there and whiffs on pitch after pitch after pitch? He’s not going to get booed every night, or most nights, but there are going to be those games where his soul-crushing contract becomes a bigger and bigger middle finger to the fans, and the collective frustration in the park boils over. And no, I don’t have anything against the Worse Upton personally, and if he has a great season (heck, if he just hit .240 I wouldn’t complain) I’ll be overjoyed because he plays for my team. But how likely is that to happen?

 

I am a fan of the Better Upton, and he actually had a really nice second year in Atlanta (29 homers, 102 RBIs), though I would like to see him hit for a higher average (just .270 this season), because I know he’s capable. However, he does strike out way too much, and 7 full seasons into his career, that might just be who he is. The Better Upton has gone down swinging more than 120 times every season since his second year, and his 171 strikeouts last season were only two behind his brother’s team high 173. So he may be hurting more, or just as much, as he’s helping. Plus, his contract is up after this year, and if they’re going to be fully committed to this rebuild, I can’t see them signing him to a long term extension, which means he’s going to get traded either before the season, or during it. I’ve read in a lot of different places that the Mariners are a likely suitor for his services, and I’m sure Atlanta would get back a bunch of prospects back for the 27 year old outfielder.



And if they do end up dealing him, then expect a crappy 2015 season. It was probably going to be a rough one anyway, but losing their two best outfielders makes things that much tougher. I can’t see any way the Braves win more than 72 games with what they’d have coming back. How are they going to score any runs? They had enough trouble doing that last season, and that was with Heyward and Upton. Still, I don’t hate the young pitching staff; Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, and Shelby Miller are all 24 years old and under Atlanta’s control until at least 2018, and they still have the 27 year old Mike Minor. But none of those guys have proven to be aces of a staff, and there’s no guarantee all 4 will end up being successful, or even serviceable long term starting options. They’ve got the best closer in the game in Craig Kimbrel, and one of the best first baseman in Freeman (though he did have a disappointing 2014 season, compared to his production in 2013. He finished with 18 homers, 78 RBIs, and a .288 batting average this season, compared to 23 homers, 109 RBIs, and a .319 average in 2013), as well as one of the best defensive shortstops in Andrelton Simmons (he’s won back-to-back Gold Gloves) locked up at least through 2018. So if they ship the Better Upton, get back some quality prospects, continue to build around the young pitching staff and their young infield (centered around Simmons and Freeman’s work in the field) all while they develop some young, contact hitters who don’t strike out every other at bat to hit around Freeman’s power bat, I think they could really have something special by the time they open their new ball park in 2017. They’ll need to get better at second and third base, as well as in the outfield, particularly if both the Better Upton and Gattis both get dealt. They’ll also need to hope that Christian Bethancourt is everything at catcher that he’s been promised to be. I’ve been hearing about how good this guy was going to be for what seems like ten years now. It's time for him to go out there and do it. I’m a little confused as to why they’re meeting this week with free agent pitcher Jon Lester, just because splurging on a big name free agent seems like the last thing they’d want to do right now, particularly when they just dealt Heyward. But I wouldn’t be completely opposed to the signing, and that trade did open up about 10 million dollars of salary. It just wouldn’t make all that much sense with what I thought they were doing.

 

Regardless of what happens with Lester, I do have faith in new President of Baseball Operations John Hart, the same guy that ran the Cleveland Indians in the ‘90s when they went to two World Series in three years. I just hope they do things that make sense, and that each and every decision helps to ultimately push them in a positive direction. It’s really easy to become the Kansas City Royals from 1986-2013, or the Pittsburgh Pirates from 1993-2012. Those once proud franchises wandered in the wilderness for two decades because of botched signings, inept ownership, clowns in the front office, and cheap, corner-cutting moves from those in leadership positions. Eventually though, they got the right guys in those spots, and they figured out how to build a winning organization. I don’t want to root for, or follow, a completely clueless organization for the next twenty years of my life. I don’t want my future kids to have to lie to me about being Braves fans, because they actually secretly don’t want to root for a team that sucks. They can’t screw this up. Be smart. And then, once the rebuild is over, go win the World Series. It's been almost twenty years since their last title. Nothing would make me happier.