I was putting the finishing touches on my “Week in Football” blog (which you can find here, in case you missed it) on Monday, when I felt a loud vibration from my phone. I quickly glanced over and noticed that it was from the Major League Baseball App, informing me that the Atlanta Braves had traded Gold Glove winning outfielder Jason Heyward to the St. Louis Cardinals for starting pitcher Shelby Miller. I was surprised, but I was also preoccupied with something else, so I quickly texted my Angry Old Man, a fellow Braves’ fan, to ask him if he’d heard the news, before going back to writing. It wasn’t until hours later that I fully began to digest exactly what that trade meant, or what I thought it meant: the Braves were cleaning house, a rebuild was on the way, and things might get to
“Rebuilding”, “bad”, and “76ers” isn’t something I’ve ever
associated with the Braves. As a 21 year old, I was fortunate to miss the
1970s and ‘80s, a time that saw Atlanta
go through 15 losing seasons, appear in the playoffs only one time, and have
zero playoff victories. See, I was born at just the right time, when the Braves
were one of the best organizations in baseball, making the playoffs every year.
In 1995, when I was two years old, Atlanta
won the World Series, and they subsequently appeared in the playoffs every year
until 2006, when I was 13. And even when they missed the playoffs 4 straight
years from ’06 to ‘09, they never completely committed to a rebuild and blew
everything up, and they did almost everything they could to win each season.
But the trade of the J Hey Kid to St. Louis represented a shift
and a different way of thinking in the Atlanta organization, as did the
continuing rumors that both Evan Gattis and Justin Upton (who will forever be
known as the Better Upton, to clear up any confusion with his brother, BJ, who
will now be known as the Worse Upton) would be traded if the right deal came
along.
In all honesty, once I got beyond the shock of the Heyward
trade, I wasn’t completely disappointed that he was dealt. Yes, I realize he
was the Braves’ best defensive outfielder, but if we were being honest with
ourselves, hasn’t he been also been a disappointment? For all the hype
and excitement surrounding this guy when he came up (including this resounding home run in his first big league at bat), he never
developed into the power hitting, clean up, build-your-lineup-around-him type
of hitter he was expected to become. He only hit 11 home runs this year, and
through 681 career games, he sits at a disappointingly low 84 blasts over the fence. He’s
never had a season over 100 RBIs (his high for a year was 82, in 2012), and
he’s never had a year in which he batted over .300 (his high for a season was
.277, his rookie year in 2010). And yes, I realize he hit in leadoff spot a lot
recently for Atlanta , which hurt
his power numbers, but I’d argue he was slotted there because he wasn’t
consistently hitting the ball with enough power to justify sticking him in the
middle of the order.
So why not deal him for someone like Miller, who had a pretty impressive rookie season in 2013 (15-9, 3.06 ERA). It’s not like the Braves couldn’t use the pitching. Don’t forget that three of their “arms of the future” a few years ago have all had multiple Tommy John surgeries. Starters Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy had their second Tommy John procedures this season, and their left handed flamethrower out of the bullpen ,Jonny Venters. just had the surgery for the THIRD time. Three times! The prospects aren’t very good for pitchers coming off their second surgery; Of the 40 pitchers who have had the surgery multiple times, 10 of them have had the procedure recently enough that they either haven’t had enough appearances to give us anything really conclusive about their careers, or they haven’t pitched at all, leaving us with just 30 subjects. And of the 30, current Royals’ reliever Jason Frasor has probably had the most success, as he’s appeared in 647 games (all in relief), and now, at age 36, is coming off a 2014 season in which saw him finish the year with a 1.53 ERA for the World Series runner ups. But Frasor had both of his Tommy John surgeries before he ever made his major league debut, and while he’s a solid MLB reliever, he’s never been a dominant, All Star-caliber pitcher. Plus, Frasor has always come out of the bullpen, and both Medlen and Beachy are starters, somethingAtlanta
will probably need them to do if they can remain healthy. The most successful
starting pitcher after two Tommy John surgeries has unquestionably been current
free agent Chris Capuano. He had his second surgery in 2008, didn’t make it
back until 2010, and didn’t really return to being a full time starter until 2011.
However, he did start 84 games from 2011-13 (and 105 total since his return),
by far the most by a guy coming off his second Tommy John procedure. But like
Frasor, Capuano has never been close to being a All Star-caliber pitcher. And
if you just look at the names of guys who have “come back” from the second
procedure, it’s a lot of guys like Victor Zambrano, Darren Dreifort, and Steve
Ontiveros. Not exactly household names. And if Atlanta
ends up getting two Capuanos and one Jason Frasor (which is probably being
extremely optimistic), then they’re going to need some more arms. More than
likely though, two out of the three, or all three, are done. And if that’s the
case, they’ll definitely need some pitching, which is way more important than
batting, by the way. I don’t have to go any further than this year’s postseason
to illustrate that point. The Giants had one great starting pitcher, Madison
Bumgarner, who nobody could hit, while Kansas City
had a three headed monster in the bullpen that made everybody swing and miss
throughout the entire postseason. It made sense that they met in the World
Series. Teams like the Angels, who had a bunch of legitimate bats, but not many
great arms, lost in the Divisional playoffs, as did the Dodgers, who had the
best lineup in the National League, but a below average bullpen and poor pitching from their ace, Clayton Kershaw.
So why not deal him for someone like Miller, who had a pretty impressive rookie season in 2013 (15-9, 3.06 ERA). It’s not like the Braves couldn’t use the pitching. Don’t forget that three of their “arms of the future” a few years ago have all had multiple Tommy John surgeries. Starters Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy had their second Tommy John procedures this season, and their left handed flamethrower out of the bullpen ,Jonny Venters. just had the surgery for the THIRD time. Three times! The prospects aren’t very good for pitchers coming off their second surgery; Of the 40 pitchers who have had the surgery multiple times, 10 of them have had the procedure recently enough that they either haven’t had enough appearances to give us anything really conclusive about their careers, or they haven’t pitched at all, leaving us with just 30 subjects. And of the 30, current Royals’ reliever Jason Frasor has probably had the most success, as he’s appeared in 647 games (all in relief), and now, at age 36, is coming off a 2014 season in which saw him finish the year with a 1.53 ERA for the World Series runner ups. But Frasor had both of his Tommy John surgeries before he ever made his major league debut, and while he’s a solid MLB reliever, he’s never been a dominant, All Star-caliber pitcher. Plus, Frasor has always come out of the bullpen, and both Medlen and Beachy are starters, something
Those pitching injuries, as well as Atlanta ’s
high number of strikeouts last season, cost them dearly in 2014. The only thing
that’s happened more times in the last two years than Braves’ strikeouts is
Jameis Winston’s number of incidents with police in Tallahassee .
In 2014, Atlanta struck out 1,369
times, the fourth most in baseball, and in 2013, they struck out 1,384 times,
the third most. In fact, since the 1990 baseball season, only one team, the
2004 Red Sox, have finished in the top five in most strikeouts and won the
World Series. Interestingly enough, during that same stretch, 13 teams have won
the title while finishing in the top ten in fewest strikeouts. And these K’s
haven’t come accidentally, as they’ve employed a bunch of free swingers the
last two seasons, including guys like Dan Uggla (211 in 184 games), the Worse
Upton (324 in 267 games, and a batting average of .198! .198!), the Better
Upton (332 in 303 games), and Heyward (171 in 253 games); even their “low strikeout
guys”, Freddie Freeman and Chris Johnson, struck out 145 and 159 times
respectively, this season. Atlanta
had 4 players in the top ten in strikeouts in National League in 2014, and 3 in
the top 5 in 2013. Throw in guys like Evan Gattis (97 in 108 games this year)
and it’s easy to see why Atlanta came up
short in the Divisional Playoffs in 2013, and had their first losing record
since 2008 this season. Granted, I’m not saying it’s a problem to have a few
guys on your roster that strikeout a lot. You need some pop and power in your
lineup, and guys that are capable of hitting 40 home runs in a season tend to
swing and miss more often, because they’re trying to drive the ball out of the
yard on more pitches. One or two of those high strikeout guys is fine. But five
or six? That’s too many. Ideally, you’d want as many consistent, contact
hitters in your order as possible. Putting the ball in play is so important
(even if you don’t get on base), because oftentimes it gives the runners on
base opportunities to move up a base, or even score. A strikeout gets you
nowhere. Where are all the contact hitters in Atlanta ?
They don’t really have any.
Honestly, I don’t think they can win a World Series with
this roster, the one constructed by former GM Frank Wren. It helps that they
were able to get rid of Dan Uggla during the season, a guy who had the worst
approach at the plate than anyone in baseball (he literally went up and just
swung for the fences every single time at almost every single pitch. It
probably would’ve been better for him to go up there with his eyes closed), but
they’re still locked into that horrendous contract they gave the Worse Upton
for THREE more seasons. The deal, originally signed after the 2012 season, was
a 5 year, 75 million dollar overpayment that may have indirectly cost Wren his
job. The Worse Upton has, as mentioned before, has batted .198, hit 21 home
runs, had 61 RBIs, and collected 180 hits in two seasons as a Brave. Since his
contract was back loaded, he’s brought home 27.1 million through the first two
years of the deal, meaning he’s made:
- 1.29 million dollars per home run
- 444,262 dollars per RBI
- 150,555 dollars per hit
Just thinking about all that gave me a head injury. It’s one
of the worst contracts in the history of sports, and one of the main reasons Atlanta
has one playoff victory the last two years. If the Braves were going to deal
anyone, I wish it would’ve been him, though there’s a better chance of the Duck
Dynasty guys buying a Justin Bieber CD for their own listening pleasure than
another Major League team throwing their hands up and saying, “Sure, we’d love
to trade for, and pay, a .198 hitter 14.45 million in 2015, 15.45 million in
2016, and 16.45 million in 2017! Please, give him to us! WE MUST HAVE HIM!!!”
So he’s probably stuck in Atlanta
for the duration of that albatross of a contract. And I can’t wait to see how
bad he slumps when his brother gets dealt. And “can’t wait” is definitely
sarcasm, because he’s going to be abysmal, and I hate having that word
associated with anyone or anything on my favorite teams. Could all of the
starting pitchers in Atlanta hit
for a higher average than him? I feel like it’s in play, and as bad as he’s
been the last two seasons, I could believe any negative outcome for the Worse
Upton next season. Could he have a season with less than 5 homers, less than 20
RBIs, and over 200 strikeouts? Sure, why not?
Just as a side note, I wish there were more dopey things
people could gamble on. I myself hardly ever gamble on sports, but if Vegas
started creating things like, “Over/under 40.5 stadium-wide boos at Turner
Field for the Worse Upton this season”, I might start laying down some more
cheddar. If I can bet on the number of times Verne Lundquist will chortle during a game, I should be able wager on something like
that. And just for the record, I’d definitely take the over. He just needs to
average a .5 boos per home game to get there. You’re going to tell me that the
Worse Upton, in the middle of the season, on the seventh game of a ten game home
stand, fresh off back-to-back-to-back games with 3 plus strikeouts, won’t start
hearing it from the fans multiple times a game, as he goes up there and whiffs
on pitch after pitch after pitch? He’s not going to get booed every night, or
most nights, but there are going to be those games where his soul-crushing
contract becomes a bigger and bigger middle finger to the fans, and the
collective frustration in the park boils over. And no, I don’t have anything
against the Worse Upton personally, and if he has a great season (heck, if he
just hit .240 I wouldn’t complain) I’ll be overjoyed because he plays for my
team. But how likely is that to happen?
I am a fan of the Better Upton, and he actually had a really
nice second year in Atlanta (29
homers, 102 RBIs), though I would like to see him hit for a higher average
(just .270 this season), because I know he’s capable. However, he does strike out way
too much, and 7 full seasons into his career, that might just be who he is. The
Better Upton has gone down swinging more than 120 times every season since his second year, and his 171 strikeouts last season were only two behind his brother’s team
high 173. So he may be hurting more, or just as much, as he’s helping. Plus,
his contract is up after this year, and if they’re going to be fully
committed to this rebuild, I can’t see them signing him to a long term
extension, which means he’s going to get traded either before the season, or
during it. I’ve read in a lot of different places that the Mariners are a
likely suitor for his services, and I’m sure Atlanta
would get back a bunch of prospects back for the 27 year old outfielder.
And if they do end up dealing him, then expect a crappy 2015 season. It was probably going to be a rough one anyway, but losing their two best outfielders makes things that much tougher. I can’t see any way the Braves win more than 72 games with what they’d have coming back. How are they going to score any runs? They had enough trouble doing that last season, and that was with Heyward and Upton. Still, I don’t hate the young pitching staff; Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, and Shelby Miller are all 24 years old and underAtlanta ’s
control until at least 2018, and they still have the 27 year old Mike Minor.
But none of those guys have proven to be aces of a staff, and there’s no
guarantee all 4 will end up being successful, or even serviceable long term
starting options. They’ve got the best closer in the game in Craig Kimbrel, and
one of the best first baseman in Freeman (though he did have a disappointing
2014 season, compared to his production in 2013. He finished with 18 homers, 78 RBIs, and a .288
batting average this season, compared to 23 homers, 109 RBIs, and a .319
average in 2013), as well as one of the best defensive shortstops in Andrelton
Simmons (he’s won back-to-back Gold Gloves) locked up at least through 2018. So
if they ship the Better Upton, get back some quality prospects, continue to
build around the young pitching staff and their young infield (centered around
Simmons and Freeman’s work in the field) all while they develop some young,
contact hitters who don’t strike out every other at bat to hit around Freeman’s
power bat, I think they could really have something special by the time they open
their new ball park in 2017. They’ll need to get better at
second and third base, as well as in the outfield, particularly if both the Better Upton
and Gattis both get dealt. They’ll also need to hope that Christian Bethancourt
is everything at catcher that he’s been promised to be. I’ve been hearing about
how good this guy was going to be for what seems like ten years now. It's time for him to go out there and do it. I’m a little
confused as to why they’re meeting this week with free agent pitcher Jon
Lester, just because splurging on a big name free agent seems like the last
thing they’d want to do right now, particularly when they just dealt Heyward.
But I wouldn’t be completely opposed to the signing, and that trade did open up
about 10 million dollars of salary. It just wouldn’t make all that much sense
with what I thought they were doing.
And if they do end up dealing him, then expect a crappy 2015 season. It was probably going to be a rough one anyway, but losing their two best outfielders makes things that much tougher. I can’t see any way the Braves win more than 72 games with what they’d have coming back. How are they going to score any runs? They had enough trouble doing that last season, and that was with Heyward and Upton. Still, I don’t hate the young pitching staff; Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, and Shelby Miller are all 24 years old and under
Regardless of what happens with Lester, I do have faith in new President of Baseball
Operations John Hart, the same guy that ran the Cleveland Indians in the ‘90s
when they went to two World Series in three years. I just hope they do
things that make sense, and that each and every decision helps to ultimately push them in a positive direction. It’s really easy to become the Kansas City Royals from 1986-2013,
or the Pittsburgh Pirates from 1993-2012. Those once proud franchises wandered
in the wilderness for two decades because of botched signings, inept ownership,
clowns in the front office, and cheap, corner-cutting moves from those in
leadership positions. Eventually though, they got the right guys in those
spots, and they figured out how to build a winning organization. I don’t want
to root for, or follow, a completely clueless organization for the next twenty
years of my life. I don’t want my future kids to have to lie to me about being
Braves fans, because they actually secretly don’t want to root for a team that
sucks. They can’t screw this up. Be smart. And then, once the rebuild is over,
go win the World Series. It's been almost twenty years since their last title. Nothing would make me happier.
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