My 2014-15 College Basketball Preview, Plus Early NBA Season Thoughts

The college basketball season officially tips off tomorrow, so, in celebration of that, I thought I’d run through a few of the highlights coming into the season….

 

Kentucky and their superstar freshmen are preseason number 1

 

Isn’t that a familiar sentence? Last year, the Wildcats, on the strength of “The Greatest Recruiting Class since the Fab Five” were also ranked number 1 coming into the season. However, it was an up and down season from the start, as Kentucky didn’t beat a ranked team all year, and had some puzzling defeats, including a loss at LSU, at South Carolina, and two defeats against Arkansas. After losing the SEC Tournament Championship Game to Florida, the selection committee slotted the Wildcats as an eight seed in the Midwest Region. Suddenly, something flipped for this team. After dispatching Kansas State in their first game, Kentucky improbably won 4 straight games against what would’ve been considered superior competition. They knocked off previously undefeated Wichita State in the next round, handed Rick Pitino his first ever loss in the Sweet Sixteen, as they beat Louisville in the Sweet Sixteen, ended Michigan’s season in the Elite Eight, and barely beat Wisconsin in the Final Four, before losing to one of the most surprising champions in NCAA Tournament history, Connecticut. Despite this, it was still a magical run for the Wildcats. They benefited from huge, game winning Aaron Harrison three pointers at the end of three tournament games, and got, in my opinion, the best coaching performance of John Calipari’s career. It’s no secret that I’m not a fan of Coach Cal (he will/has been a frequent target of mine in this space). He reminds me of a sketchy car/insurance salesman, someone who is always putting out a false, coldly concocted and controlled image of himself to the public. But not even I can deny that he’s a great basketball coach. Last year, Calipari became one of six coaches to take a program to three Final Fours in his first five years at the school, joining Harry Combes, Fred Taylor, Ed Jucker, Steve Fisher, and Ben Howland. Only Fisher, Howland, and Calipari have accomplished this feat with the modern, 64-68 tournament field, though Fisher had his ’92 and ’93 Final Four appearances vacated because Chris Webber took money while at Michigan. But the fact that he was able to take this team, one that relied heavily on five freshman, who had all struggled at various times throughout the season, (seriously, the Harrison twins were absolutely abysmal for almost all of last season, before they started to light it up in the tournament) to get their act together, start playing as one unit, and fully maximize their skills and abilities, is one of the most impressive coaching performances of my lifetime. And somewhere along the way, Calipari won me over, though I still trust “The Boy Who Cried Wolf” a million times more than I trust Cal.

 

As always, Calipari did an excellent job recruiting, but I’m actually more impressed with what they brought back. They did lose freshman stars Julius Randle and James Young, but both Harrison twins have returned, and if their strong play in the tournament is any indication, they should only get better this season. They also bring back Willie Cauley-Stein, a great defender/rim protector, and Alex Poythress, an up and down junior who finally showed flashes of being the player he was recruited to be. It’s been no secret that Coach Cal and Poythress haven’t exactly seen eye-to-eye since he committed to Kentucky. In fact, it wouldn’t be THAT much of a stretch to say that Poythress has spent more time in Calipari’s dog house than his own dog the last two seasons. But if he can keep his head on straight, and recapture some of that magic he showed at the end of last year, he could really make an impact for this team. I think the Wildcats will rip through the SEC this season, and they may only lose two or three games in the regular season. If they aren’t a number 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, then they had a disappointing regular season.

 

Kansas reloads better than any program in the country

 

As long as Bill Self is the coach at Kansas, I’ll go ahead and pencil them in as the Big 12 champions. It almost doesn’t matter who they lose year-to-year (and it’s a lot of guys, because college basketball has more roster turnover every season than all other sports combined), because they always seem to just fill in the gaps with another equally capable player. They’ve either won the regular season or conference tournament every season since Self’s second year (he’s been there 11 years). I’m not even worried that they lost Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid, their two best players from last year’s team, because I know Wayne Selden and Perry Ellis and a host of other guys will be able to step up and fill that void. It happens every single year in Lawrence, and I expect it to happen again. They’ll have a great regular season and get either a 1 or 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. But that’s where Self’s trouble has been. In his 11 years at Kansas, he’s lost 4 tournament games to double digit seeds (including last year), one to a number 9 seed, and blew a 14 point lead in the final minutes to Michigan in 2013. It’s not like he’s stunk in the tournament (he won a national title in 2008, and lost in the championship game in 2012), it’s just that the Jayhawks haven’t exactly been reliable in the tournament. That’s the only question I really have with this team.

 

It’s all about Jahlil

 

Duke freshman Jahlil Okafor is a monster, and he was the only newcomer to the college game to be selected to the preseason All American team. He’s going to be extremely important for the Blue Devils if they want to go anywhere this season, because this is one of the weaker Duke rosters in recent memory. Rasheed Sulaimon, Amile Jefferson, and Quinn Cook are their best returning guys? I think they’re all solid basketball players, but I’m not sure they can win a title if they have to rely on those guys to be extremely important players for them. They have two other potential superstars in freshman Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow, but I hate relying on freshman-dominated teams. Only one has ever won a national title, 2012 Kentucky, and most of them end up finishing closer to the disappointing 2013 Wildcats than the group led by Anthony Davis. In all honesty, I actually like North Carolina in the ACC. They’ve got the best point guard in the nation in junior Marcus Paige. They’ll only start one freshman, and they return some good players from last year’s team, like Brice Johnson and J.P. Tokoto.

 

It’s going to be a long year on Rocky Top

 

This will probably be the Vols worst team since Buzz Peterson was on the sidelines in Thompson-Boling Arena. If Josh Richardson is your best returning player, you’re probably destined for a 11^th place finish in conference. And that might be generous. They’ve got no size (Armani Moore will start at power forward), and Donnie Tyndall hinted in late September that they’d be starting Kevin Punter, Devin Baulkman, and Willie Carmichael, names even the most devout Vol fans have never heard of. I’m interested to see how Robert Hubbs III (a Cuonzo Martin five star signing who had his freshman season ended by a shoulder injury), Memphis transfer Dominic Woodson, and four star late signee Detrick Mostella play this season, but I’m not crazy or delusional enough to expect them to be saviors for the program this year. It’s going to be a tough year in Knoxville, and I don’t expect this team to be a serious NCAA Tournament threat.

 

Your 2015 NCAA Tournament Champions will be……

 

The Wisconsin Badgers. My Angry Old Man might have a heart attack reading this, because while I made fun of Badger center Frank Kaminsky for almost the entire tournament, he staunchly and ardently defended him, before it eventually devolved into him gargling a bunch of nothing. What can I say? Kaminsky looks like the type of guy that would sit in his parent’s basement all day playing World of Warcraft and downing Dr. Pepper’s. Look at this picture!

He’s just goofy, and that’s why it took me a while to be a believer in Frank the Tank. I was even shocked when ESPN ranked him as the best player in college basketball in the preseason, before I remembered just how good he was in last year’s NCAA Tournament. He was unguardable and unstoppable in the Elite Eight against Arizona (he finished the game with 28 points and 11 rebounds), and was the number 1 reason they played in the Final Four. They’re one of the most experienced teams in the country, as they return 4 starters, including 3 seniors (Kaminsky, Josh Gasser, and Traevon Jackson), a talented junior (Sam Dekker), and the uber athletic sophomore Nigel Hayes. It’s the best starting lineup in the country, and this experienced group will carry Wisconsin to their first national title since 1941.

 

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We’re two weeks into the NBA season, and while I don’t like to make sweeping declarations about the association until we’re about 20-25 games in, a few things have happened since the opening Tuesday that I feel the need to touch on.

 

KEEP FIRING ‘EM UP KOBE!

 

Bryant has been putting up shots at an alarming and extremely inefficient rate this season, as he’s shooting 38.8% from the floor on 24.5 field goal attempts a game. Here’s his game by game shooting performances:

 

Game 1: 6-17 from the floor, 35.3% shooting, 19 points

Game 2: 11-25, 44%, 31 points

Game 3: 6-15, 40%, 21 points

Game 4: 12-28, 42.9%, 28 points

Game 5: 14-37, 37.8%, 39 points

Game 6: 7-20, 35%, 21 points

Game 7: 10-26, 38.5%, 28 points

Game 8: 10-28, 35.7%, 33 points

 

He’s chipped a lot of paint off the rim this season. 44% is his best shooting percentage in a game this year? That may be one of the main reasons why the Lakers are an abysmal 1-7. Obviously, they have a terrible roster, but it doesn’t help when your 36 year old two guard decides to break the offense on multiple occasions throughout the game and start putting up as many shots as he pleases.

 

One more Kobe tangent: on Tuesday, Bryant surpassed John Havlicek as the all time leader in missed shots in NBA history. I thought it was curious that many media pundits raced to defend Kobe. Honestly, I don’t really think it’s that big of a deal. Anybody that’s watched basketball for Bryant’s entire career knows he’s a gunner, and someone who will go down shooting in every single night. It makes sense that the Black Mamba, an almost indestructible athlete that’s played with so many ailments over the years (broken finger, torn wrist ligament, multiple knee issues that he had to fly over to Germany to solve) who also happens to have a propensity to put up as many shots as humanly possible, would break this record. He’s played 18 years and been given free reign to shoot as many times as he wants. We shouldn’t be shocked that this happened. In fact, I think this record perfectly captures Kobe’s career; a volume scorer who was just good enough at putting the ball in the basket to justify all of his misses.

 

Derrick Rose alienates the entire city of Chicago

 

Rose’s comments about sitting out because he didn’t want to be sore when he was older were understandable, yet also a little concerning at the same time. Just as a basketball fan, I don’t really care if he’s out there gutting it out every night right now, because it’s November, and these games largely don’t mean all that much. I’d much rather him be healthy and flying around in April and May than now. Then again, I can certainly understand why Chicagoans would be upset. That’s a tough, gritty city, and a lot of people in their 30’s, 40’s, 50’s, and beyond, who never played professional sports, wake up in that city sore every day. Heck, I’m 21, and sometimes I wake up feeling discomfort somewhere. It happens to almost everyone. Plus, a ton of people in that city are dropping hundreds or thousands of dollars every year on Bulls’ tickets, only to hear that Rose won’t be playing because he doesn’t want to be sore when he goes to his children’s high school graduation. Add in the fact that the city has two terrible baseball teams, and a football team that plays worse defense than any other Bear team has before, and that Rose is making more than 18 million dollars this year, and I understand the city-wide frustration. I really do. Rose’s biggest problem was that he was TOO honest. Obviously, telling the truth is really important, but sometimes, holding back some details isn’t the worst thing in the world. You may not want to be sore when your older, but you can’t say that, because those words are so contrary to the character and image of Chicago, and frankly, the character and image of the team he plays for. That’s a physical, defense-first team that includes players like Joakim Noah, who played with the extremely painful plantar fasciitis all of last season and never really complained about it. Regardless, I hope Rose is able to get healthy, and find his way back on to the court full-time once again. Because the NBA is better when it’s full of athletes like him.

 

The Greatest Draft Class in the History of the NBA?

 

Early returns haven’t been as great as projected on this class, particularly at the top. Andrew Wiggins is averaging 10 points and 3.1 rebounds on 43.8% shooting, while Jabari Parker is averaging a slightly better 10.9 points and 5.9 rebounds on 41.9% shooting. Not a great start for these two, though we are only two weeks into the season. I haven’t been able to watch as much of Jabari as I would like, but I did watch almost all of the Rockets-T’Wolves game last night. Athletically, Wiggins looks like he belongs on the court, and defensively he’s going to be fine. But it’s still a nightmare to see him on the offensive end. Originally, I thought he was cut from the Ben McLemore/young Rudy Gay mold, an extremely talented basketball player who could spend entire stretches of the game just drifting, not touching the basketball or do anything noteworthy. But after watching him the first two weeks, he just looks like he doesn’t know what to do on the offensive end. He can’t create a shot for himself, and he doesn’t do a good job of moving when he’s off the basketball. He doesn’t have a consistent jump shot, and when he does dribble, it doesn’t go anywhere. Wiggins won’t be able to get by on athleticism alone anymore. I’m more worried than ever that he’ll end up becoming a more athletic Tony Allen, one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, as well as a guy who couldn’t make a 20 footer if his life depended on it, and someone who will never sniff an All Star team. Then again, it is early, and Wiggins is just 19. He’s got a whole career ahead of him.