Friday, November 7, 2014

The Most Important Saturday in College Football; Plus, the end of Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers?


 
 
 
Saturday is, at least up to this point in the season, the most important day in college football. I count six games between ranked teams with playoff implications. And speaking of playoffs, how awesome is it that we now finally have one in college football? Without the playoff system in place, we’d already know (more than likely) that the National Championship Game would feature Florida State (who’s going undefeated), and the SEC Champion (assuming that team has no more than one loss). But now? No one really has any idea what’s going to happen. Almost every one loss team is still alive, and there’s so much more at stake for so many more teams as the season winds down. Interesting. I thought the playoff would kill the importance of the regular season? Oh wait, that’s just what the clowns who supported the BCS said.  

 

College Football Picks (home team in CAPS)…..

 

#15 OKLAHOMA over #12 Baylor

 

Shockingly, this is only the second most important game in the Big 12 this week. I thought this contest would be the one that decided the Big 12 (shows how much I know), but thanks to the Sooners’ two losses, it doesn’t quite have the same sense of importance around it. However, it is a must win for Baylor, who, despite having only one loss, sits at #12, with a ton of teams to jump over if they’re going to have any shot to sneak into the playoffs. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but this game will swing on two things; Oklahoma’s physicality, and their ability to get pressure on the quarterback. Baylor’s biggest problems in their one loss this season (at West Virginia) was the fact that the Mountaineers were so much more physical than them, and that they were able to get pressure on Bryce Petty (he was sacked 4 times). The Sooners have a better and more physical defense, and they’re significantly better at rushing the passer than WVU. The Bears will score some points, but Petty’s also going to be spending a lot of time on his back, staring at the Oklahoma sky, on Saturday afternoon.

 

#9 ARIZONA STATE over #10 Notre Dame

 

The Irish have gotten way too much credit for their close loss at FSU. This is the same Notre Dame team that gave up 43 points to a bad North Carolina squad. Plus, how good is FSU? They could easily have five losses this year. Then again, I’ve never thought, “Oh my gosh, that’s one of the ten best teams in the country. Dang, they’re national title contenders” after watching Arizona State this season. If anything, I was (and have been) disturbed how they got completely destroyed by an above average UCLA team at home. Plus, is there a more shady character in college football than Todd Graham? This is a guy that pulled a Lane Kiffin (heartlessly and nefariously leaving a school after just one season) twice in his coaching career. In his last Kiffin-esque move (when he left Pitt), he didn’t even meet with the players, which is customary when a head coach leaves a school. Instead, he had a text message forwarded to all of them from the director of football operations. Spineless. He makes John Calipari look like a choir boy. I hate even picking a team he coaches, but I just think they’re a little bit better than the Irish. Plus, it’s so hard for college teams to fly across the country and play extremely well, which is exactly what Notre Dame is going to have to do. I like the Sun Devils to win close, and stay alive in the playoff race.

 

#6 TCU over #7 Kansas State

 

I think TCU is going to win the Big 12 (and maybe sneak into the playoffs), despite spending the entire season playing as little defense as possible. I thought they’d trip up last week at West Virginia, but as poorly as they played (particularly Trevone Boykin, who was 12 out of 30 passing for only 166 yards), they somehow found a way to squeak it out. Plus, it helps when an “air it out” coach like Dana Holgorsen inexplicably decides to start playing as conservatively as possible in 4th quarter when his team has the lead. Nice job Coach H. I don’t expect Boykin, or that offense, to struggle two weeks in a row (this is the same unit that scored 82 points against Texas Tech on October 25th). They’ll get back on track this week.

 

#8 MICHIGAN STATE over #14 Ohio State

 

The Buckeyes last victory over a Top 15 team was when they beat #12 Wisconsin, in Columbus, on October 29th, 2011. You have to go all the way back to 2009 to find the last time they won a road game against a Top 15 team. And then you look at their schedule this year; where are the impressive wins? Who have they beaten that makes you say, “Wow, Ohio State is pretty good”? If anything, that Virginia Tech game, as long ago as it was, is still front and center in my mind when I think about the Buckeyes this season. Granted, Michigan State’s resume isn’t much better, though they do have a victory over a pretty good Nebraska team, as well as an okay showing at Autzen Stadium against Oregon earlier in the year. Everyone has been raving about Ohio St quarterback J.T. Barrett these last few weeks, but it’s not like he’s been lighting up the ’85 Bears every week. Rutgers? Maryland? Illinois? He’s never faced a defense as good as Michigan State’s (which gives up only 279.4 yards per game, 5th best in the country), and he’s still just a freshman, starting on the road in a tough environment against the best and most physical team he’s ever faced. The drought against Top 15 teams on the road will continue for Ohio State, and the Spartans will keep their playoff hopes alive for another week.

 

#4 Oregon over #17 UTAH

 

What a gut punch loss for the Utes last week. Their kicker, “Amazing Andy”, (who made 87% of kicks this season) missed both of his attempts on the game tying field goal in overtime, allowing the Sun Devils and shady Todd Graham to eek out a close victory. What makes that even worse is that they don’t even get a chance to catch their breath after that heartbreaker, because the Ducks from Oregon are coming to town. Oregon is firing on all cylinders right now, and they’re just blowing teams off the field. Just ask Stanford, their latest victim, who they overwhelmed from start to finish. I thought this game would be close last week. Now? Not so much. I expect it to be another good ole fashioned Oregon whooping, something like 45-24.

 

#5 Alabama over #16 LSU

 

I went back and forth on this one more than any other game this week. Tiger Stadium, at night, is a crazy place. Weird stuff happens. The ball just seems to bounce LSU’s way almost every time, and they catch every break. It’s one of the few home venues in sports that really make a difference. Plus, Les Miles has been dynamite in night home games, as he’s 46-3 in them since taking over the program. Physically, the Tigers can match up with the Tide. Why am I fighting this? Why don’t we just do this….

 

#16 LSU over #5 Alabama

 

For all the reasons I just mentioned. Plus, I don’t completely trust ‘Bama’s quarterback, Blake Sims, in a big spot, on the road, in a crazy environment like Death Valley. You saw what that place did to Bo Wallace, who I think is a better QB. And yes, I realize Vegas is in love with the Crimson Tide, and they’d be a favorite against every single team in the country. And yes, I did have Alabama ranked 2nd in my most recent college football playoff rankings, but that doesn’t mean I think they’re incapable of losing, particularly in a place like Tiger Stadium, which seems to give LSU magic powers. This game will be close throughout, but I think the Tigers will catch some weird break at the end of the game that propels them to the victory. And yes, this game will be ugly, and low scoring. It might end up being 13-10, or even the iconic 9-6 like this game was three years ago.

 

 

NFL Picks

 

This is a strangely weak NFL slate. There just isn’t a whole lot there on Sunday, or at least compared to the last few weeks. At any rate, let’s run through some of the highlights…..

 

CHIEFS over Bills

 

I have an admission to make before I continue any further with this game. About two weeks ago, when the Bills rolled into their bye week an impressive 5-3, I overreacted and said I thought the Bills were going to win 10 games and make the playoffs. I came to this conclusion mostly because I stupidly overlooked how good Kansas City was, and how well they’d been playing. I also forgot that I probably should’ve made the rule “You should never pick a team quarterbacked by Kyle Orton to make the playoffs, because that’ll probably blow up in your face quicker than Mount St. Helens”. The Chiefs are just better than Buffalo, and will prove it this week. I haven’t given them enough credit for being good, mostly because I don’t trust Alex Smith. But in the regular season, he’s fine (most of the time), and you can make the playoffs if you start him. Buffalo’s pretty good in the trenches (they absolutely whooped the Jets their two weeks ago), but KC isn’t bad either, and they’re a little bit healthier (Buffalo’s two best backs, CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, are both banged up). They’ll take care of business on Sunday in Buffalo.

 

LIONS over Dolphins

 

Or in other words, “The Majority of People Don’t Actually Think We’re Legit” Bowl. I have my doubts about both teams, though they have spent most of the year winning the games they should win. I actually think the Jim Caldwell hiring has done wonders for Detroit. As much as I’ve made fun of him for his blank facial expression (he’d react the same way to winning the Mega Millions Jack Pot as he would to having all of his limbs cut off Anakin Skywalker-style in the movie Revenge of the Sith), I think he’s actually got the right temperament to deal with all the brash and loud characters on this team. Jim Schwartz, an overbearing, arrogant, and out of control maniac, only reinforced, and sometimes sent overboard, this team’s attitude and swagger. Caldwell has combated that, and he’s mellowed them out a little bit. And they definitely needed it. Plus, there defense is ferocious (they allow the fewest yards per game in the league), and Matthew Stafford is playing very well this year, mostly without his best weapon, Megatron. I think they eat up Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins this week, and move to 7-2, something almost no one predicted at the beginning of the year.

 

PACKERS over Bears

 

This is the end for Chicago this season (and maybe Mark Trestman forever, though I think he deserves another year. That defense is awful, and he was brought in to fix that offense, something he’s done fairly well). Jay Cutler is 1-9 all time against Green Bay, and this team, reeling after so many horrible performances, isn’t going into Lambeau and winning. I don’t trust Cutler in a big game (like this one), and it’s more likely that my limbs will start stretching like Mr. Fantastic than it is that the Chicago defense will finally show up and stop somebody. Fun fact: I picked the Bears to go to the NFC Championship Game before the season started. Whoops.

 

SAINTS over 49ers

 

The biggest game in the NFL this week, in my opinion. It’s basically an elimination game for the Niners, as they really can’t afford to drop to 4-5 with only seven games left. Off their bye week last Sunday, San Francisco played one of their worst games since Harbaugh got there, as they only managed 10 points at home while giving up 8 sacks. Meanwhile, New Orleans has quietly been impressive two weeks in a row (their beat down of Green Bay on Sunday night, followed by their victory in Carolina last Thursday), and seem to be rounding into the team we thought they’d be before the season started. I get Brees and Payton, at home, against a 49ers team that’s falling apart, quarterbacked by Colin Kaepernick, the NFL’s version of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde…. I mean, isn’t it pretty obvious? It’s got to be the Saints.

 

And if they do lose on Sunday, this will be the end of Jim Harbaugh. And it’s a shame, because I think he’s one of the five best coaches in the NFL. I don’t think he’ll get fired on Monday, but he won’t be back next season. It’s been established that he and general manager Trent Baalke get along about as well the Bloods and Crips, but they’ve managed to make it work because they’ve been winning. But now, with the number of appalling losses that have piled up, coupled with the fact that Harbaugh’s contract is up after next season makes me think he won’t be around in 2015 (and believe me, he won’t be back next year unless he gets a new contract. He’s not going into next year as a lame duck head coach. He’s going to want some security). If Harbaugh doesn’t return, won’t the Niners be an interesting job, with many smart people vying for that head coaching position? An extremely talented roster that just spent the 2014 season underachieving, with an inconsistent yet spectacular young quarterback. This will be the best job opening in the NFL.

 

Other NFL picks

 

BENGALS over Browns (Yes, I whiffed on this one. Badly. Thank you Andy Dalton!)

 

RAVENS over Titans

 

Cowboys over Jaguars (in London)

 

Don’t start Tony Romo this week. Give his back another two weeks (their bye week is next week) to heal. You should be able to beat the Jags with Brandon Weeden. Heck, you should be able to beat the Jags starting Jamarcus Russell. Just have him turn and hand it to Demarco Murray and Joseph Randle 40 times if you need to. You don’t want Romo to take another shot and miss significantly more time.

 

Steelers over JETS

 

Falcons over BUCS

 

Atlanta picks up their first victory since Week 3! Congrats! Despite being one of the five worst teams in the league, they’re still somehow alive in the NFC South race.

 

Broncos over RAIDERS

 

SEAHAWKS over Giants

 

CARDINALS over Rams

 

EAGLES over Panthers

 

I can’t believe I’m picking a team that’s starting Mark Sanchez at quarterback. What am I thinking? Then again, he did look surprisingly competent last week when he came in against Houston. So who knows?

 

Like always, enjoy football this weekend. You deserve it.

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