Monday, November 3, 2014

The Week in Football: Butch Jones is a Genius? Plus, another Ole Miss Gut Punch Loss, and NFL Power Rankings




On Saturday night in Columbia, Tennessee pulled off their most improbable victory since the 2005 game in Baton Rouge against LSU. You know, the game where the Vols trailed 21-0 at halftime, Erik Ainge played so horribly that he got pulled midway through the second quarter for Rick Clausen (Ainge finished the game 7-19 for 54 yards, with a pick six and a horrible fumble that set up an LSU touchdown), only Clausen was amazingly able to bring Tennessee back to win 30-27 in overtime. It’s been nine years since the Vols pulled one out that they shouldn’t have, and that’s why this one was so special. For years and years, Tennessee has been on the wrong side of these games (13 men on the field against LSU in 2010, the blocked kick at the end of the game against Alabama in 2009, the Florida games the last two years, etc.). It was just nice to finally win one.

 

Which brings me to my next point…..

 

Why in the world was Josh Dobbs not starting at the beginning of the year?

 

This literally, and never will, make any sense to me. It’s been obvious since he stepped on the field that he completely changes the make up and dynamic of the offense. It’s funny how no one has mentioned how bad the offensive line is the last two weeks, because when there are breakdowns in protection (and there’s still been many the last two weeks), Dobbs can use his legs to escape the pocket and make a play, either by running the ball (which he did for a school record 166 yards on Saturday night) or throwing downfield to those big, physical, speedy receivers. Justin Worley and the Worst Quarterback in the History of the Program had no chance when there were rushers in the backfield, because those guys are about as mobile as a house phone. But Dobbs changes everything for them. They don’t win that game on Saturday with anyone else back there.

 

Also, I find it interesting how the narrative on Butch Jones among Vol fans has completely flipped. Since the Florida game, everybody’s been down on him, questioning his decision making in crisis, his clock management, and wondering why in the BLEEP he wasn’t starting Dobbs at the beginning of the year. His stock had never been lower. But on Saturday night, after their comeback victory, Vol Nation was suddenly acting like Butch was the second coming of Christ, and that Tennessee had won the national title. I saw you guys on Twitter and Facebook, and it was a little…. disconcerting. Let’s not forget that this was the same guy who threw his hands up and trotted Nathan Peterman out there on multiple occasions. And yes, I realize Butch wanted to redshirt Dobbs this season so he’d have 3 years eligibility remaining, but that doesn’t mean it was a smart decision, or a defensible one. What if the Vols had started Dobbs at the beginning of the year? How many wins would they have? I don’t think they’d win at Oklahoma, at Ole Miss, or against Alabama, but besides that, what games would they have lost? As well as Worley played against Georgia, I still think the Vols win that game if Dobbs had started it. Tennessee jumped all over Georgia early, and they would’ve been able to keep their foot on the gas if Worley hadn’t gotten hurt. His injury forced Peterman into action, who played like a scared freshman suiting up for the first time with the varsity. I’m pretty sure they’d still have that lead over Georgia early if Dobbs started, and they would’ve been able to keep it with him at the helm. And there’s no way they’d lose that Florida game if Dobbs was in there. All they needed to do was score more than 9 points. Heck, they scored 14 points in the last 4:52 of the fourth quarter on Saturday. I think he could’ve managed that. And no, I don’t hate Butch, and in a lot of ways, I’m a fan of his. But that doesn’t mean I think he’s done a great job this year. I’m a pretty big Vol homer, but I can’t just suddenly forget about the questionable things that have happened in Knoxville, on Butch’s watch, this season, after they win one SEC road game. This fan base was, and still is, desperate for a winner. Why not start the guy that gives you the best chance to win? Why not go all in on this season? Do you realize that if Tennessee had won the Florida and Georgia games, they’d be 6-3, and in control of their own destiny in the SEC East? And it’s not like they’ve got a brutal end to the season. The two toughest remaining games on the schedule, Missouri and Kentucky, are both at home. They could’ve easily been the SEC East champions this year. How much momentum and pride would that give this program heading into next season if they’d played in the SEC Championship Game, regardless of the result? The division was there to be won. If only Butch had decided this year was more important than the 2017 season.

 

Ole Miss Clemson’d for the second straight week

 

It’s really a shame. For those of you that don’t know what “Clemson’d” means, it’s pretty much when you blow a game after you’ve been given chance after chance to win it, just like the Clemson Tigers do at least once a year on the football field (see this year’s Florida State game if you still have any questions). But back to Ole Miss. After last week’s debacle in Tiger Stadium, the Rebels followed it up with another gut punch loss, this time at the hands of Auburn. Ole Miss fumbled on back-to-back possessions in the red zone late in the game as they were driving for the winning touchdown. Plus, on that second fumble, they lost their best receiver, Laquan Treadwell, for the rest of the season with a broken leg and dislocated ankle, as the pain from his injury caused him to lose the ball on the one yard line. Oh, and I forgot to mention that they’ve essentially been eliminated from the college football playoff. Not a great two weeks for the Rebels. And honestly, I feel bad for them. I really do. This was their best team since the ‘60s, or at least since Eli Manning was there. They’ve had some great moments this year, but almost all will be forgotten after what’s happened over the last two games. All they really have left is to play the role of spoiler (they host Mississippi State the Saturday after Thanksgiving), but if that’s what this season turns into, it will be extremely disappointing, because they had the potential for so much more.

 

How much luckier can Auburn get?

 

Let’s run through the lucky breaks Auburn has gotten since they fired Tommy Tuberville after the 2008 season….

 

  1. Cam Newton got paid thousands of dollars to play football for Auburn for one season. His dad was literally selling his sons services to the highest bidder, only the NCAA was unable to find “sufficient evidence” to do anything about it (probably because that would mean forcing Auburn to vacate a national championship, something the NCAA doesn’t want to do). Cecil Newton, Cam’s father, reportedly told Mississippi State boosters that it would take between 100,000 and 180,000 dollars for his son to attend that school, something the boosters were willing to pay for. Apparently, they weren’t the only ones willing to throw some cash around, because if they were, Cam would’ve ended up there. But since he didn’t, it’s obvious that Cecil had the same deal with the Tigers (and probably many other schools), and that Auburn outbid everyone. Also, your not going to convince me that Cam was clueless about what his father was doing, which the NCAA claimed to be the case. Why would, or how could, Cecil be selling his son to schools if he had no guarantee that Cam would go play for that program? Did he think he’d be able to convince his son to go play for the highest bidder without telling him about how that school was dropping thousands of dollars for his services? There’s a better chance of Lil Wayne putting out a good album than that being true. The NCAA blew this one, and they stuck their heads in the sand, once again proving how hypocritical and corrupt that organization is. In fact, the only good thing about that situation was that everybody could make the, “Cam Newton took a pay cut to go to the NFL” joke. Classic.
  2. During that same season, Auburn got off to a horrible start against Alabama and trailed 24-0 during the second quarter. Suddenly, the Tigers began to catch a bunch of breaks (including the first fumble of the season for Mark Ingram as he was nearing the end zone), and they shockingly came back to win the Iron Bowl 28-27. It was the biggest comeback victory in the history of the program, and the Tigers won the national title a little over a month later.
  3. After a 2012 campaign that saw Auburn go 3-9 (and 0-8 in conference), Gene Chizik, who had won a national title only two years earlier, was fired. The Tigers hired former offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, who immediately and curiously turned everything around, as they won the SEC title and played in the National Championship Game. Only Auburn would be able to fire a national championship winning coach two years after he won it, and then hire a guy who would immediately take them back there.
  4. During that miracle 180 degree 2013 season, they had this amazing hail mary to beat Georgia, which was somehow only the second most improbable victory of the season.
  5. The Kick Six. Honestly, I don’t really need to say anything besides that.

 

So while the two Ole Miss fumbles in the red zone late in the game on Saturday night would be thrilling and amazing for every other school, it’s just typical for Auburn. I’d feel bad for them blowing a big lead against Florida State last year, except that was really the only time over the last few years that they were unlucky. The breaks have to go against them at some point right? Regardless, I’m tired of Auburn and their luck. I’ll probably root against them in every game for the rest of eternity.

 

Will Muschamp saves his job…. for now

 

I don’t understand what happened in Jacksonville on Saturday. It was probably the most confusing victory of the entire football season. Florida had looked so bad all year, and their offense was anemic from day one. But suddenly, this physical, overpowering running game sprouted up out of nowhere. The Gators ran for 418 yards, and Treon Harris only attempted 6 passes the whole game. Honestly, I’m not sure which stat is more amazing. And how did Georgia allow themselves to be dominated by this run-heavy Gators’ offense? How could they not just load up with nine guys in the box and stop them? Florida obviously wasn’t interested in throwing the ball, and their play calling indicated that. I don’t have any answers. If I did, I wouldn’t have picked Georgia to win by at least 4 touchdowns. In fact, the only thing that I really can make sense of with this game is that Will Muschamp probably bought himself a tiny bit of job security. He got his first win in this rivalry (he was 0-4 as a player at Georgia, and 0-3 as Florida’s coach), and they did it in a dominating fashion, as they completely dominated from the opening kickoff to the final whistle. I don’t think Muschamp is a good coach, and as a Vol fan, I actually hope Florida has a good finish to the year, and does enough to convince Athletic Director Jeremy Foley to bring back that clown next season. Anytime the Gators are horrible and inept, it brings me joy. Then again, as terrible as Florida has been during his tenure, Tennessee hasn’t beaten him yet. Those are the types of things that make me want to smother myself with a pillow.

 

My 4 Team Playoff

 

  1. Mississippi State. The Bulldogs held on late at home to beat Arkansas 17-10, though they looked far from the dominant force that they were earlier in the season. Still, they belong at number 1, because of they’re undefeated in the best conference in the country. It will be interesting to see how they play in two weeks when they travel to Alabama, who I think is the most underrated team in the country. And how bad do you feel if you’re an Arkansas fan? They haven’t won an SEC game since they beat Kentucky on October 13th, 2012. It’s been a rough two years in Fayetteville.
  2. Alabama. I bumped the Crimson Tide over Florida State this week, because I haven’t been impressed by the ‘Noles at any point this season. Vegas says ‘Bama would be favored over any team in the country right now, and I believe them. They seem to have gotten back on track offensively after their middle of the season offensive no-shows against Ole Miss and Arkansas. This week, they’ll play in one of my favorite rivalries of the season, as they travel to Tiger Stadium, at night, to take on LSU. Crazy things happen in night games against the Bayou Bengals at home. Just ask Bo Wallace. I think the Tide will win, but Les Miles is 46-3 in these situations. Don’t be shocked if the Tigers pull of their second huge upset at home in two weeks.
  3. Florida State. The Seminoles, in my opinion, aren’t one of the ten best teams in the country. They easily could’ve lost five games this year (on a neutral field against Oklahoma State, at home against Clemson, at home against Notre Dame, at NC State, and at Louisville), and yet, they’ve always found a way to gut it out. And honestly, as much as I’ve been critical of Jameis Winston for being a clown off the field, I’ll give him credit for being great every time his team’s been trailing. But that still doesn’t change the fact that they’d have at least two losses if they were in the SEC. They’re fortunate that they play in the cupcake conference, the ACC, which has allowed them to be mediocre and still remain undefeated. I think they’ll finish the year that way, because the schedule really isn’t that challenging (home against Virginia, at Miami, home against Boston College, home against Florida, and the ACC Championship Game), which will allow them to make it into the playoff, where they’ll lose their first game.
  4. Oregon. I’ll defiantly keep the Ducks here, mostly because I’m just tired of Auburn, though they did show me something this week by going into Oxford and winning. It was their first really impressive showing of the season, unless you want to count their victory over an LSU team that was starting a true freshman at quarterback for the first time on the road. But let’s not forget how good Oregon has been. Besides the Arizona game, where they were extremely banged up on the offensive line, they’ve been blasting people every week. Stanford was just the latest victim in a long line of butt-kickings. Plus, if they win out, they’re going to make it into the playoff. The Pac 12 is the second best conference in the country, and if they can make it through that league with only one loss, it’d be extremely impressive. I think they will.

 

I’d rank Auburn 5th and TCU 6th. Keep an eye on the Horned Frogs. They won at West Virginia this week, destroying my prediction that the Mountaineers would win the Big 12 (darn you Dana Holgorsen and your suddenly conservative play calling at the end of the game!). If they can win at home against Kansas State this week, they might be able to sneak into the playoff as another one loss conference champion. It’s in play.

 

NFL Power Rankings

 

A lot of interesting things happened in the NFL on Sunday. And in celebration of the NFL reaching the halfway point, I’ll celebrate it the only way I know how: power rankings, but this time in reverse order, from 32 to 1.

 

32. Oakland Raiders

31. Tampa Bay Bucs

30. Jacksonville Jaguars

29. New York Jets

28. Atlanta Falcons

27. Tennessee Titans

26. Washington Redskins

 

Lots and lots of bad football. And here’s the hilarious thing: The NFC South is so bad that Atlanta, who is one of the five worst teams in the league, is still in contention for the division! They’re only two games out! How is that possible? They haven’t won since Week 3! But besides Atlanta, all these teams have pretty much been eliminated from postseason play. And the Falcons would be if they were in any other division.

 

25. Chicago Bears

24. New York Giants

23. Minnesota Vikings

22. Carolina Panthers

21. St Louis Rams

20. Houston Texans

All these teams are teetering on the brink of elimination, and they’d better start stringing together some wins if they want their season to continue. In fact, I’d say that all these  teams that aren’t on their bye week have virtual elimination games this week (except Carolina, because their division sucks). Chicago travels to Green Bay; the Giants play at home tonight against the Colts, and then are at Seattle; and the Rams play in Arizona. Good luck.

 

19. San Francisco 49ers

18. New Orleans Saints

 

These disappointing teams, who both had Super Bowl aspirations at the beginning of the year, actually play each other in New Orleans this week. This is almost a must-win for the Niners. They really can’t afford, like the Saints, to drop to 4-5. Their division is too strong, and they would have too many NFC teams to jump over in the Wild Card race. I’ve been higher on San Francisco than most this year, but if they lose on Sunday, this season has a lot of potential to quickly and furiously spiral downwards. That loss to the Rams yesterday was awful. Granted, St Louis has shown some signs this year, and been impressive at times, but if you’re the Niners, that’s a game you have to win. You can’t, at home, score only 10 points and give up eight sacks. You just can’t.

 

17. Cleveland Browns

16. Buffalo Bills

15. Baltimore Ravens

 

All middle of the road teams, though I still maintain that the Bills will find a way to incredibly slip into the playoffs (their schedule is too easy for them to not win at least 10 games). Cleveland, as shocking as it is that they’re 5-3, did lose to Jacksonville, and I’m actually not sure how good Brian Hoyer is. I was a fan of his last year, and earlier this season, but he didn’t exactly light up the three worst teams in the league the last three weeks (3 TDs and 3 picks in those games, including a terrible performance against the Jaguars where he completed only 39% of his passes). Plus, they’re the worst team in their division, and I think they’ll finish in last even if they go 8-8. And I have no idea what to do with Baltimore. They only have one win against a really good team (Pittsburgh in Week 2); besides that, they’ve struck out against the best of the NFL (Indy, Pittsburgh last night, and twice against Cincinnati). Maybe they just aren’t that good.

 

14. San Diego Chargers

 

My Angry Old Man texted me angrily yesterday about my preseason AFC Super Bowl pick, saying, “You fool! I told you San Diego wasn’t that good, but like always, you never listen to your Pops! 37-0 yesterday?! What a bunch of clowns! There’s a better chance of me going to a Kanye West concert than there is of the Bolts going to the Super Bowl! You don’t know how lucky you are to have me around to tell you how the world works! Why don’t you go back to salivating over regular season NBA games instead of insulting our intelligence with your crappy football picks?”

 

Like always, he was riled up. And yeah, it’s been a rough three weeks for the Chargers. Rivers was Geno Smith-level-bad yesterday (52.2 completion percentage, 138 yards, 0 TDs, 3 picks), and the defense was abysmal for the third straight game. Is there a team that needed its bye week more than San Diego?

 

That loss yesterday was terrible, and I don’t have any excuses for it. Sometimes you just don’t have it on a particular day, and you get embarrassed in every facet of the game. It happens. They’re just so banged up right now (Donald Brown returned from injury yesterday, but wasn’t much help, as he only had 4 carries for 23 yards), but having this week off will only help them, as it gives them a chance to catch their breath, and it also gives those guys who are banged up an extra week to get healthy. I’m sticking by this team. Plus, they’ve always been a squad that plays better in December than they do in October. Heck, just last year, they looked done after starting the year 5-7, before they won their last 4 games to sneak into the playoffs. And in those playoffs, they defeated Cincinnati in the Wild Card Round, and followed that up by giving Denver everything they could handle in the Divisional Playoffs. They’re a second half team. They’ll be fine.

 

13. Miami Dolphins

12. Kansas City Chiefs

 

I’ve got the Chiefs in front of the Dolphins only because they won in South Florida in Week 3. But Miami certainly has been impressive over the last few weeks, including the aforementioned dismantling of the Chargers yesterday. Here’s the only question for these teams: can you really see Alex Smith or Ryan Tannehill lifting up the Lombardi Trophy? In fact, that’s a good question for every team that thinks its a contender: can you see your starting quarterback holding the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the year? If the answer is no, then go ahead and mentally prepare yourself for a disappointing and unsatisfactory end to the season. Every quarterback since Brad Johnson in 2002 has either been one of the best QBs in the league, or got extremely hot in the playoffs (Eli Manning in 2007, Joe Flacco in 2012). You’ve got to have elite play from the quarterback position to win the Super Bowl. I can’t see Smith or Tannehill (who aren’t among the best QBs in the league) putting together a 4 game run of dominance like Flacco did two years ago.

 

11. Green Bay Packers

10. Seattle Seahawks

 

Two teams with fatal flaws that could ultimately end up preventing them from reaching their goal. For the Pack, they’re too Aaron Rodgers dependent, as they can’t run the ball (they’re 24th in yards per game) or stop anybody on defense (they’re 25th in yards allowed per game). And Seattle isn’t good offensively at all. They don’t get any big plays from the passing game, and while they still run the ball well (they’re second in the league in rush yards per game), you can’t win playoff games, much less the Super Bowl, if you have to dink and dunk your way down the field because you don’t have any game breaking plays (see the New England Patriots since 2004).

 

9. Pittsburgh Steelers

8. Cincinnati Bengals

 

These two will be fighting out for the division title, and as much as I’d like to side with the more dependable quarterback (Roethlisberger), Cincy’s roster is just better, and I ultimately think they’ll gut it out and win this division, which might be the best in the NFL. Quick tangent on the Steelers: who thought James Harrison, at age 36, a guy who hadn’t had a meaningful NFL moment in years, would make a huge impact, both culturally, and on the field, for this team? This defense looks like the Steelers of five years ago. They’re constantly flying to the ball, and they get pressure on the quarterback whenever they want. And how good has Roethlisberger been the last few weeks? Sheesh. This is a Super Bowl contender.

 

7. Philadelphia Eagles

6. Dallas Cowboys

5. Detroit Lions

 

I’ve got the Eagles ranked this low because they’ll now be starting Mark Sanchez at quarterback for the next several weeks. Who knows when Nick Foles will be back from his broken collarbone? Dallas has got their own issues at quarterback. Tony Romo, who had back surgery at the end of last season, just suffered ANOTHER back injury. Reportedly, he has two fractured vertebrae in his back, which sounds about as fun as going to the dentist. They aren’t going to win a playoff game starting Brandon Weeden at QB, a guy who looked lost almost the entire game yesterday.

 

And then we’ve got the Lions, who I don’t completely trust yet. Yeah, statistically they’ve got the best defense in the NFL, and Matt Stafford has played pretty well this year, but there’s just something shady about this team. It probably has something to do with the fact that they’ve been inept for half a century. But for now, with as well as that defense is playing, coupled with how the other NFC contenders have struggled with injuries or poor play, I can’t put them lower than 5th.

 

4. Indianapolis Colts

3. Denver Broncos

2. New England Patriots

 

The class of the AFC thus far. Indy should bounce back tonight, fresh off their torching in Pittsburgh. I expect them to be in the thick of things for the rest of the year in the AFC.

 

I’ve been a seller on the Pats all year, and I still don’t think they can win the Super Bowl because they don’t have any weapons on the outside. But anyone that was panicking earlier in the season, declaring Brady and Belichick’s run to be over, is a fool. They’ve really struggled early in the regular season the last few years, before they inevitably round into shape in October in November. And they kick everyone in the head for two straight months. It happens every year. They’re going to be AFC contenders as long as Brady and Belichick are involved.

 

I was a little worried about Denver going into that game yesterday as soon as I heard the forecast: cold and windy. Basically, Peyton Manning’s kryptonite. He’s never been the same dude outside in cold weather, and now that he’s had 3 neck surgeries, his ball flutters through the air at times, even on warm days. But when it’s cold and windy outside, with a weakened arm, it becomes so much harder for him to be successful. Brady isn’t bothered by the weather (and never has been), as he can still power his throws through the elements. That’s why Brady’s been so much more successful in the playoffs than Manning. The possibility of having a playoff game, either in Denver or somewhere else, with snow or heavy winds, could ultimately cripple the Broncos this season.

 

1. Arizona Cardinals

 

This is a team that’s 7-1, despite the fact that they started Drew Stanton at quarterback for a long stretch of the season. They’ve got a great defense, playmakers everywhere on offense, and one of the best coaches in the NFL in Bruce Arians, who should be the coach of the year. Carson Palmer, who everybody thought was done 3 years ago, has been really good (11 TDs and only 2 picks in five games this year). In fact, that’s really the only question for this team: can Palmer keep it up? Because they’re awesome everywhere else. Regardless, they’ve been the best team in the NFL through the first 9 weeks.

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