Friday, November 14, 2014

Overcoming the Butt Fumble, Plus NFL and College Game Picks





The Butt Fumble. It’s one of the most memorable, bad, iconic plays of the last decade. We’ve all seen it, and when we think of Mark Sanchez, that’s the thing that comes to our mind before anything else. And in fairness, it was a bad play. It looked terrible. It was the “Worst of the Worst” on Sportscenter for so long that they eventually retired it because they thought nothing would ever be worse than that. However, I thought that play was less about Sanchez, and more about just how far the Jets had fallen under head coach Rex Ryan, and just how inept they had become. That play sent a message, or at least it did to me, that if they were ever going to be contenders in New York, they were going to have to fire Ryan and move on to someone else. You know what’s really sad? The date of “The Butt Fumble” was November 22, 2012. You mean to tell me that Ryan is still the head coach, even two years after that organization-wide embarrassment of a play? Sheesh. If you want to know why the Jets are now one of the worst teams in the NFL, you’ve got your answer.

 

But back to Sanchez. Mark had three huge obstacles early in his Jets’ career, two self-imposed, and one completely out of his control:

 

  1. He threw his name into the NFL hat too early

Sanchez only really started one full season at USC (2008), and pieces of the 2007 season while John David Booty was injured, for a total of 16 career starts. For comparison, Andrew Luck started 38 games over 3 years (but spent 4 years in college), Matt Ryan started 36 games over 3 years (but spent 4 years at Boston College), and Joe Flacco started 26 games over 2 years at Delaware (but spent 5 years in college). You know, only three of the most successful quarterbacks to come into the league since 2008. At the press conference to announce that he was going pro, in a curious and never seen before or again move, his OWN HEAD COACH Pete Carroll was unhappy that Sanchez was leaving, saying things like “He’s going against the grain with this decision” and talking about how previous Trojan quarterbacks had spent as much time as possible in the program. A lot of media pundits at the time thought Carroll was just unhappy because he was losing his starting quarterback, someone that he wouldn’t be able to easily replace. I went a different way. Carroll, by all accounts, is an extremely nice and caring guy, someone who is legitimately interested and concerned for the well-being of everyone he encounters. I think he had spent a ton of time around Sanchez, and he’d seen his habits, and was concerned that he wasn’t ready to be an NFL quarterback. Should he have expressed those concerns at the press conference? No, probably not, but the point still remains that Carroll, who had coached this guy for FOUR YEARS, thought he needed some more experience under his belt.

 

2.  The Jets traded up to get him

To acquire Sanchez, the Jets traded their own first and second round pick, as well as three players, to the Browns for the right to move up to the fifth pick of the draft. This made Jets’ fans view him as the savior, and the one the quarterback that would return them to prominence after so many whiffs at that position over the years. And when things started to sour for Sanchez and the Jets in his third year (2011), they turned on him. Never mind that he had the worst weapons in the league, and an extremely reliable defense that suddenly got a little shaky.

 

3. The Infamous GQ Spread

I don’t really feel great about showing the pictures, because it’s a bunch of pictures of a shirtless man, but I’ll go ahead and link it here if you’re interested. While I don’t necessarily think it’s a big deal that Sanchez posed for any magazine, I think it was just further ammunition for Jets’ fans, as the team started slipping in 2011, almost immediately after that issue hit newsstands. It reminded them that Sanchez wasn’t really like them; he wasn’t a true “New Yorker”, an everyday grinder like them. He was just a pretty boy from Hollywood, and they hated him because of it.

 

Honestly, I think it’s a shame that “The Butt Fumble” and some GQ pictures are the defining moments of Mark Sanchez’s career to most people. Granted, he never lit it up in New York, and in many ways, he failed there. I don’t think he got any better at the quarterback position from 2009-2012 (his last year with the Jets), and in many ways, I’d say he regressed. Then again, the Jets never really put any solid, consistent weapons around him, and he introduced Rex Ryan as his head coach for the first four years of his career. I think he just got warn down by all the beatings, both from opposing teams and the media, that football probably stopped becoming fun for him, and maybe he didn’t put in as much time as he should have. But it wasn’t like his entire time with in New York was just “The Butt Fumble”. Let’s not forget that he won four road playoff games in his first two NFL seasons (which tied him for the second most in NFL history), and that he appeared in back-to-back AFC Championship Games. And as mediocre as his regular season stats are (68 TDs, 69 picks, 55.06 completion percentage), his postseason stats are actually pretty impressive (9 TDs, 3 picks, 60.5 completion percentage). And two of those road playoff victories were in Indianapolis and New England, against Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, only the two of the best quarterbacks of all time.

 

I don’t think Sanchez is a great quarterback, and I don’t think he’s even close to being one of the most naturally talented quarterbacks in the NFL. He doesn’t have an extremely strong arm, and he doesn’t move all that well outside the pocket. But if you put him in the right system, with the right head coach, I think he can be extremely successful. In Sanchez’s lone season starting at USC (2008), the Trojans played one of the toughest schedules in the last 15 years, as every single one of their games was against a team from a BCS conference. Sanchez and the Trojans beat all of them, except for a still confusing loss at Oregon State on a Thursday night. But that was still a really good team, and Sanchez was surrounded by pretty good talent on both sides of the ball. There was never a time where he could say that during his Jets’ tenure. You couldn’t even say that he had competent offensive personnel around him in New York.

 

I have no idea how long Nick Foles will be out in Philadelphia, but even if it’s for the rest of the season, I think the Eagles will be fine. They’ve been able to score points almost at will with Sanchez playing (just like they did with Foles), and they have a ton of talent at the skill positions, a pretty good defense (even with the loss of linebacker DeMeco Ryans), and one of the best coaches in the NFL, the offensive genius Chip Kelly. For the first time in his NFL career, Sanchez is in a stable environment, with the right head coach and the right front office. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m buying some stock in Mark Sanchez.

 

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Now, onto my Week 11 NFL picks (Home Team in Caps)……

 

SAINTS over Bengals

 

Cincinnati is crumbling. I have no faith in them to travel to New Orleans and escape with a victory. The Saints haven’t lost consecutive home games since 2009, and the Bengals defense is ranked 31st in the league since their bye week. Plus, this is a huge game for Cincy, as they try to stay alive in one of the toughest divisions in football. When has Andy Dalton ever played well in a big game? He’s lost three straight playoff games, and his most recent showing in a big game, last Thursday against Cleveland, he finished the game 10-33 for 86 yards and three picks, before he was finally pulled. That’s Rex Grossman/Jamarcus Russell-level ineptness. I wonder how the Bengals feel about that six year, 115 million dollar deal they just gave Dalton now.

 

CARDINALS over Lions

 

I badly wanted to pick the Lions to win this game because of the Drew Stanton factor, but I decided to stick with the Cards. Arizona is undefeated at home this season, and their defense turns into the ’85 Bears in the 4th quarter. I have no idea what gets into these guys during that period, but they’ve forced 12 turnovers in that quarter this season, good for a turnover margin of plus 11. After Carson Palmer tore his ACL last week, that defense started mauling the Rams, and had two defensive touchdowns, including a miracle pick six by Patrick Peterson. Detroit’s defense has been ferocious all season as well, and I could easily see this contest being an old fashioned, gut it out, 10-7 or 13-10 type of game. I’ll give the Cards the edge because they’re at home.

 

PACKERS over Eagles

 

Green Bay has played extremely well over the last few weeks, with the exception of that puzzling performance in New Orleans. They still aren’t great defensively (and probably never will be), but I liked how they moved Clay Matthews around last week. He started playing inside linebacker, and then would rotate to the outside from time to time. He did a great job in run support, and as always, did a great job of getting pressure on the QB when he was rushing from the edge. It gave that defense a different feel, and I hope the Pack continue to let him play like that. And while I expect Mark Sanchez to play well, Aaron Rodgers is playing so well that he should probably be the NFL MVP (25 TDs, 3 picks, 2407 yards), and they’re at home, playing in cold temperatures (there is a high on Sunday of 31 degrees, and a low of 15 degrees), with 13 mile and hour winds. The Packers will win.

 

Patriots over COLTS

 

The dirty little secret of Indy’s season is that their wins haven’t really been all that impressive, especially when you compare it to their losses.

 

Indianapolis wins:

At Jacksonville, home against Tennessee, home against Baltimore, at Houston, home against Cincinnati, at the Giants

 

Indianapolis losses:

At Denver, home against Philadelphia, at Pittsburgh

 

Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston, and the Giants are all not playoff teams, Cincinnati is struggling to keep its head above water, and Baltimore hasn’t beaten a quality team either besides Pittsburgh in Week 2.

 

Meanwhile, New England has been extremely impressive since their embarrassing loss to Kansas City on Monday Night Football (except for the Thursday Night Game against the Jets)

 

New England wins since Kansas City:

 

New England 43, Cincinnati 17

New England 37, Buffalo 22

New England 27, New York Jets 25

New England 51, Chicago 23

New England 43, Denver 21

 

As you can see, they’ve been blowing everyone out just about every week. The Pats are also 10-4 off their bye week under Belichick, something they have the benefit of this week. New England is playing better than anyone right now, and I expect that to continue on Sunday night.

 

Other NFL Picks

 

DOLPHINS over Bills

 

I swear I had Miami over Buffalo in the first true playoff elimination game of the NFL season. I’m sorry Buffalo, it’s been a nice run, but it’s over now. Good luck digging your way out of a 5-5 hole. Like always, never trust a team that starts Kyle Orton at quarterback.

 

BROWNS over Texans

 

Falcons over PANTHERS

 

The “How the BLEEP are we still alive for a playoff spot, despite the fact that we actually suck?” bowl. Congratulations, NFC South.

 

Vikings over BEARS

 

Jared Allen told the Chicago media this week that the Bears aren’t out of it yet. I’m sorry, but did you watch what happened to you guys on Sunday night?

 

Broncos over RAMS

 

Seahawks over CHIEFS

 

49ers over GIANTS

 

The G-Men, at some point last week, decided they didn’t want to tackle Marshawn Lynch anymore (he had 4 rushing TDs). There only hope on Sunday is often ignored rule that it’s extremely hard for a team from the West Coast to play well in a game at 1 o’clock Eastern time, but I'm not even sure that will save them.

 

REDSKINS over Buccaneers

 

CHARGERS over Raiders

 

If San Diego loses this week to the hapless Raiders, then it is over for my AFC Super Bowl team. They can’t lose to Oakland can they? CAN THEY?

 

Steelers over TITANS

 

College Football

 

No, I haven’t forgot about the college game. It is disappointing that this week doesn’t quite have the same sense of importance that last week did. There were SIX legitimately huge games last week, and it was a great Saturday. At least Tennessee is back on the schedule again. Speaking of the Vols…..

 

TENNESSEE over Kentucky

 

A few weeks ago, I was really worried about this game, until Butch Jones finally decided it was a good idea to stop trotting out Nathan Peterman, and instead send out the best quarterback on scholarship, Josh Dobbs. Plus, the Wildcats actually started playing like the Kentucky team we all know and love, not the one that was competing in almost every game. They got beat down 41-3 by LSU, and didn’t show up until the second quarter (when it was too late) last week against Georgia. Dobbs changes everything for that offense and for that team, and I don’t expect that to be any different this week.

 

#20 WISCONSIN over #16 Nebraska

The most important game early in the history of the Big 10 West, as the winner would have the inside track at advancing to the Big 10 Championship Game. Minnesota is also a “contender” in that division, but they travel to both Wisconsin and Nebraska in their last two games, and they also have an extremely tough game this week in Minneapolis against Ohio State. Good luck. I don’t really have a solid reason for picking Wisconsin other than that I just haven’t been all that impressed with Nebraska this year. Granted, Wisconsin hasn’t been world beaters this season either, but they are at home, in one of the best home field advantages in the country, Camp Randall. Plus, the visiting team’s locker room, which used to be painted pink, was eventually repainted “prison blue” because they thought that the pink color was irritating their opponents. The new color is supposed to elicit a calming response, and is the same one used in the Wisconsin prison system. I have no idea if it works or not, but since the change, the Badgers are 43-4 at home.

 

#9 Auburn over #15 GEORGIA

 

The Bulldogs get their best player, Todd Gurley, back this week, and while I’m sure he’ll make a huge impact on the field this Saturday, I’m still sticking with the Tigers. I just don’t know what Georgia team is going to show up. Two weeks ago, against Florida, they played one of the worst games I’ve ever seen a ranked team play. They then followed it up last week with a dominating performance, from start to finish, against Kentucky. I know that Auburn’s defense has more holes than Swiss Cheese, but at least Nick Marshall and that offense are always going to show up. That’s really the only thing I’m assured of from week-to-week in this matchup. Plus, I just can’t see Auburn, with as much talent they as they have, getting their 3rd loss of the season at this point in the year. And as much grief as I’ve given Clemson for blowing games, Georgia kind of does the same thing all the time. Last year’s Auburn game is a perfect example of this, as well as this year’s South Carolina game, where the Bulldogs had a first and goal late in the game, trailing by 3, only they ended up having to settle for a field goal (because they stupidly decided it was a good idea to not hand the ball to Todd Gurley three straight times) which they missed. I could easily see something like that happening again this week, and that’s why I can’t pick Georgia.

 

#5 ALABAMA over #1 Mississippi State

 

I’m siding with the Crimson Tide, mostly because I can’t bring myself to pick Mississippi State, a program that’s done mostly nothing but produce bad football year after year my entire life, to go into Tuscaloosa and win. The Bulldogs have really impressed me this year though, as they’ve got a really good defense, a Heisman-contender in Dak Prescott at QB, and a really smart head coach in Dan Mullen. The Tide have just been such a good team at home. Their most impressive victory of the season, the 59-0 blasting of Texas A&M, happened at home, as well as their 42-21 dismantling of Florida. I think, like last week in Baton Rouge, that this game will be a physical, hard fought, slugfest. But ‘Bama, on the strength of their defense and home crowd, will find a way to squeak this one out.

 

Personally, particularly if it’s close, I don’t think Miss St should drop out of the playoff if they lose this game. They’ve still got some really good wins (at LSU, home against Auburn, home against Texas A&M). Plus, they’re in the best conference in the country, and they never blew a 21 point 4th quarter lead (I’m looking at you TCU). If I was on the committee, and Alabama wins this game, I’d move the Tide up to number 1, keep Oregon at number 2, leave FSU at number 3, and drop MSU to number 4. Regardless of the what happens next Tuesday though, I still expect this to be the best college football game of the week.

 

Other college picks

 

#8 Ohio State over #25 MINNESOTA

 

#22 GEORGIA TECH over #19 Clemson

 

#24 TEXAS A&M over Missouri

 

#17 Lsu over ARKANSAS

 

#3 Florida State over MIAMI

 

As badly as I wanted to pick the Hurricanes, I just couldn’t. They haven’t done anything (besides beating Duke) that really impressed me this season. Unfortunately, I think the Seminoles are going undefeated, which means they’ll steal a playoff spot from someone who is way more deserving and better than them.

 

So, like always, enjoy football this weekend. You deserve it.

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