Tennessee Will Beat Missouri, and Other College and NFL Game Picks

 

 

Tomorrow, for what seems like the 5^th or 6^th time this season, is another day full of a bunch of average college football games. There just aren’t a whole lot of compelling and important ones. Still, like always, I’ll be here to break things down for you. And, like always, I’ll whiff on a ton of picks tomorrow and Sunday, and follow that up by climbing out of bed every Monday morning, scratching my head, wondering how I could’ve been such an idiot. Ok, that doesn’t happen EVERY Monday. Maybe just half the time. Still, regardless of what happens from week-to-week, I'll be here every Friday, throwing every team at the wall and seeing what sticks. Plus, I think it’s important to include some comedy in pretty much everything I write. Well, with my Friday picks, the jokes are found in pretty much every prediction I make. Your welcome.

 

So, without further ado (Home team in CAPS)….

 

#19 Usc over #9 UCLA

 

This is actually a really important game in the Pac 12 South, as the winner will be in first place in the division. With a win, the Trojans would finish 7-2 in conference, eliminate the Bruins (and Arizona) from the division title race, and put immense pressure on Arizona State to win their last two games (that would be the only way the Sun Devils could win the division, as they sit at 5-2 in conference, as they beat USC on this hail mary during the season). For me, this game has less to do with USC, and more to do with UCLA. I’ve been so disappointed in the Bruins this year. They were touted by many pundits as a national title contender before the season started, but instead, they’ve been the biggest phonies in college football. How in the world are they ranked 9^th right now? They have one impressive win this season, a 62-27 beat down at Arizona State on September 25^th, and a bunch of crappy performances. They beat a bad California team by 2, needed double overtime to beat Colorado (who is winless in the Pac 12), eeked 7 point win over Memphis, and escaped with a three point victory over Texas early in the season when the Longhorns were bad. They’re the worst “top 10” team in the country, and honestly, I don’t have any real faith in them to show up and play well on Saturday night. Why would I? They’ve looked really good one time this year.

 

#8 Ole Miss over ARKANSAS

 

I just want everyone reading right now to stop what they’re doing, stand up, and give a round of applause for Arkansas, who, on Saturday, got their first SEC win since October 13^th, 2012, as they defeated LSU 17-0. Bret Bielema got his first big win since he took over as the Razorbacks head coach, and it was the greatest day in Arkansas football since former head coach John L. Smith screamed about how this was the state of Alabama program. Honestly, it's been a long time coming. They’d had some brutal, gut punch losses this season (a 7 point loss against Texas A&M, a 1 point loss to Alabama, and a 7 point loss to Mississippi State), and it was just nice to see Bielema get that big W. I think he’s a smart guy, and a good head coach. I just felt (and still do) that he and Arkansas were a weird cultural fit, and because of that, it may not end up working out.

 

Whatever happens, it won’t matter tomorrow, because Ole Miss is just a better team. My only concern for the Rebels is how they’ll look for their first game against a legitimate opponent since their best receiver, Laquon Treadwell, broke his leg on near the goal line against Auburn. Obviously, they’ll miss his play making ability on the outside, but I don’t think that will be enough to keep them from winning. They’ve got the best defense (that money can buy) and quarterback in this game, and Arkansas is 1-5 in conference for a reason. Let’s not overreact to one big win.

 

TENNESSEE over #20 Missouri

 

The Vols have outscored their opponents 115-65 since Josh Dobbs set foot on the field against Alabama. This guy and his lack of eyebrows changes everything for Tennessee, and demonstrates once again just how important the quarterback position is in the game of football. The defense is on the field less because the Vols can put together and sustain drives, the offensive line suddenly doesn’t look like it’s full of a bunch of middle schoolers and unathletic stiffs, and those read option plays suddenly work a whole lot better because the defense actually has to worry about Dobbs keeping the football. And yes, while I realize it is Kentucky, when was the last time Tennessee really put it on another SEC team for 4 quarters? 2009, Kiffin’s one year? I know I’ve been going on and on and on about how Tennessee left an East division title on the table this season, but instead of crying over it (and believe me, I’ve already done that, like multiple times), I’m going to look forward to next season, one in which I think the Vols could easily win the SEC East, and may even be the favorite coming into the year. Yeah, they’ll be on the road at Alabama, Florida, and Missouri, but they also get Georgia, South Carolina, and Arkansas at home. I could easily see them going 5-1 in those games. Why not? Georgia will have a new quarterback, South Carolina will still probably have a bad defense, Arkansas is still Arkansas, Florida will have a new head coach, and Missouri could be ok, but it’s not like Tennessee couldn’t win that game. The contest in Tuscaloosa will be the tough one, but other than that, I feel like every game on the schedule is winnable. Even Oklahoma in Knoxville isn’t an impossibility. I feel great about next season, and that’s what happens when you have the right guy playing quarterback for you.

 

In terms of the game on Saturday, I’m optimistic, even though the Vols will be without their best linebacker, and heart and soul of the defense, A.J. Johnson, who is involved in a rape investigation. It may not matter though, because Missouri has one of the worst offenses in the SEC. The Tigers average the second least yards per game in the conference, and Maty Mauk hasn’t had a great year (10 picks, 53.1 completion percentage). Tennessee is playing their best football of the season, and they’ll get their third straight SEC victory tomorrow, the first time that’s happened since 2010.

 

Other college picks

 

#23 NEBRASKA over #25 Minnesota

 

The Cornhuskers still haven’t tackled Melvin Gordon (408 yards rushing last week!), but it probably won’t matter this week, because the Golden Gophers don’t have anyone close to his caliber in the backfield.

 

#3 FLORIDA STATE over Boston College

 

The Seminoles barely escaped (for the what seems like the tenth time this season) their last true regular season test of the year last week in Miami. Boston College stinks, but if FSU struggles with them, I think the playoff selection committee should sit down, put their heads together, and boot them out of it. I, along with many others, don’t think they’re one of the best 4 teams in the country. But if they have to squeak one out against the Golden Eagles at home? Come on. It would be time for them to go.

 

#15 Arizona over #17 UTAH

 

I don’t have a great feel for this game, but ever since I started talking up the Utes, and declaring that they were pretty good, they’ve done nothing but disappoint me. So I can’t pick them. Thanks a lot guys.

 

#16 Wisconsin over IOWA

 

Melvin Gordon won’t have 408 yards rushing again, but the Badgers won’t need that to beat the Hawkeyes. Fun fact about Iowa: their head coach, Kirk Ferentz, is the ninth highest paid coach in the country, at a little more than 4 million a year. Really? Since 2010, here are his records:

 

2010: 8-5

2011: 7-6

2012: 4-8

2013: 8-5

2014: 6-3

 

If you’re an Iowa fan, do you feel great about paying a guy 4 million a year that’s gone 33-27 over the last 5 seasons? I know I wouldn’t.

 

Now, onto my NFL picks….

 

CHARGERS over Rams

SEAHAWKS over Cardinals

 

Week 12 produces two more “Win, or your season is over, and you’ve disappointed your fans greatly” games, ironically involving both of my preseason Super Bowl teams, San Diego and Seattle. Both these teams have brutal schedules remaining. San Diego follows up this week with games at Baltimore, home against New England, home against Denver, at San Francisco, and at Kansas City. Sheesh. Seattle’s isn’t any better; they’ll have games at San Fran on Thanksgiving, at Philly, home against the Niners, at Arizona, and home against St. Louis. Neither of these teams can afford to drop to 6-5. There are just so many teams they’d have to jump over if that happens, and they both have two of the toughest remaining schedules in the league.

 

St. Louis is feisty, and that worries me a little bit for the Chargers. Three of the Rams’ victories this season are over the Niners, Seahawks, and Broncos, and it’s not like San Diego has looked all that good recently. In fact, they haven’t played a great game since they shut out the Jets 31-0 in Week 5. Week 5! Still, I think they’re better than St. Louis, and they’ll find a way to win. Plus, Rivers and Antonio Gates are both past due for a big game. Why not this week?

 

Honestly, I’m more worried about Seattle. I haven’t liked anything that’s come out of their locker room this season (Russell Wilson isn’t “black” enough, this is definitely Marshawn Lynch’s last year in Seattle, Percy Harvin was a terrible teammate, and he popped Golden Tate in the face last season, etc.) Plus, Russell Wilson just looks so….. limited. For all the love he got last season, which he partially deserved, it is interesting to see how the narrative flipped on him this season. Mike Greenberg (I know, not a guy with a high football IQ, but still) said earlier in the season that he’d rather have Wilson than Andrew Luck. Now? No one would ever say that. He’s never been a guy that made a bunch of plays down the field with his arm, and now, with no weapons, it’s that much harder for him. Plus, what happened to the Legion of Boom, and where’s the great pass rush? They’ve been physically whooped so many times this season by opposing offensive lines (Dallas and Kansas City, for example), and they’ve lost that edge they had last season. Nobody is scared of them anymore (or the 12^th man), and teams are no longer afraid to throw on them. I could easily talk myself out of Seattle, though I’ll stick with them, just because I can’t imagine the defending Super Bowl Champs being all but eliminated from playoff contention in Week 12 (I still think they have some pride in that locker room). But it could easily happen.

 

PATRIOTS over Lions

 

This is one of those games that will, on Sunday, represent a truth about the NFL. We view and talk about the Patriots in a certain way because of games like this, and we view and talk about the Lions in a certain way because of games like this. Detroit has been inept for half a century because they lose games like this one, and everyone has respected New England for over a decade because they win games like this. Why should I have any faith in Matt Stafford, on the road in New England, against Brady and Belichick? Yes, I realize the Lions have the top ranked defense in the league, but they, for some reason, were only able to score 6 points, and none after halftime, last week in Arizona. I could easily see them showing up and getting blasted from the opening kickoff to the final whistle, partially because New England is playing so well right now, but also because they’re the Lions, and I don’t have any faith in them in big games. It actually kind of reminds me of last week’s Mississippi State-Bama game; The Tide are the Pats, the team that’s been consistently dominant, while Detroit is MSU, the upstart that’s been mostly irrelevant for the greater part of their history. I would’ve believed the Bulldogs would beat Alabama when I saw it, and I’ll believe the Lions can beat the Patriots when I see it.

 

BRONCOS over Dolphins

 

Every NFL fan needs to take a collective chill pill with the Broncos after last week’s embarrassing defeat in St. Louis. Granted, it was bad, and Peyton hasn’t been great in 3 weeks (6 picks). Plus, his ball looks terrible right now, as itt wobbles through the air. He doesn't have a tight spiral anymore, and he barely has any zip on his throws. They can’t run the ball, and don’t appear to be interested in trying (28 rushing yards on 10 carries last week!). Then again, I hate overreacting to a bad three game stretch by any NFL team, particularly one quarterbacked by Manning that looked awesome through its first seven games. I remember it happening a lot with New England after their first three games, and now everyone feels stupid because they haven’t lost since then. A lot of these games come down to this: do I have any faith in this coach/quarterback combo going on the road and winning a big game? Joe Philbin and Ryan Tannehill in Denver? As much as he’s impressed me this season, let’s not overreact, and act like this guy is Aaron Rodgers or anything. The Dolphins can rush the passer extremely well (they have 30 sacks, tied for fourth most in the league), but Denver could also get tight end Julius Thomas back this week (he practiced today). Every team has lulls and low points during the season. It happens. I’m always willing to side with the team and the quarterback that’s done it for years and years over the upstarts with the questionable quarterback. Plus, it’s not like Manning’s ball has looked great at any point during the season. It’s always wobbled. We just notice it more now because they’re struggling so much.

 

Other NFL picks

 

Chiefs over RAIDERS

 

Yeah, I whiffed on that one. Who would’ve thought that Oakland would beat a team that was 7-1 over their last 8 games? I certainly didn’t.

 

Browns over FALCONS

 

Atlanta sucks, and I won’t pick them to beat anyone outside the NFC South until they do it. I still can’t believe they’re a division leader after 10 games.

 

EAGLES over Titans

 

Coming off Chip Kelly’s worst loss as a head coach on any level, Philly gets the best possible medicine: Tennessee.

 

Packers over VIKINGS

 

Green Bay is the best team in the NFC right now, and Minnesota couldn’t even beat the crappy Bears last week.

 

COLTS over Jaguars

 

Do I even need to say anything about this one? It’s Jacksonville!

 

Bengals over TEXANS

 

This game is going to blow up in my face at about 1:30 on Sunday, after Andy Dalton has already thrown two picks and fumbled once. I’ll then remind myself of the “Never pick a team quarterbacked by Dalton” rule I’ve made like a zillion times, and silently shake my head. But Cincy is better on paper, and they should win.

 

BEARS over Buccaneers

 

Incredibly, Chicago won their first home game of the season last week. How is that even possible? It was Week 11! Fortunately for them, they found an easy way to get their second home win. It’s called the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

 

49ERS over Redskins

 

Apparently, RG3 was doing a lot of preparation for San Francisco this week. It won’t matter. The Niners seem to have gotten back on track recently, as they’ve won back-to-back road games. I’m still interested to see what kind of an impact Aldon Smith will have for them going forward (he had no sacks or tackles in last week’s game in New York, but he did face constant double and triple teams), but they won’t need him to be great on Sunday to beat the Redskins.

 

Cowboys over GIANTS

 

This one’s real simple; Dallas has the second best rush offense in the league (153.2 yards per game), and the G-Men have the worst rush defense.

 

BILLS over Jets

 

The only reason this game would be close is because of all the craziness that’s gone on in Western New York this week that forced this game to be moved to Detroit. But the Jets are just terrible, and I’m sure every New York fan will be happy when the Rex Ryan era comes to an end at the conclusion of the season.

 

Ravens over SAINTS

 

The home field advantage of the Superdome appears to be gone, as New Orleans has lost back-to-back home games. In fact, they’ve lost 5 indoor games this season, including at Dallas, at Atlanta, and at Detroit. But wait, I thought the Saints were great indoors? I guess not, or at least not anymore.

 

So, like always, I encourage everyone to sit back, relax, and enjoy football this weekend. You deserve it.