I can't believe it's Week 9 of the college football season already. It seems like just yesterday that I wrote a 4000+ word manifesto about the 2018 season in which I picked Michigan State to make the playoff. Yikes!
Onto the games!
Tennessee
at South Carolina
Will Muschamp and his
beer gut have somehow never lost to the Vols as a head coach, going 6-0 against them during his tenures
at Florida and South Carolina. This is made more incredible by the fact that he’s only a mediocre 40-35 against
every other opponent. Not breaking any news here, and
I’ve said this before, but if Muschamp weren’t a head football coach, he’d be
out of shape strength coach who downs entire cases of tall boy Natty Lights seven
nights a week. As a head football coach, he pops in his second year with a school and tricks everyone into thinking he’s going to be great, until the program goes in
the toilet Year 3, which leads to an awful Year 4, which then finds him unemployed. That was exactly
the way his tenure played out at Florida, and he’s torpedoing in that direction
again at South Carolina. The Gamecocks are 3-3 this season, and their signature
win is… at home against a 4-3 Missouri team that’s offense disintegrated in a
torrential downpour in the second half? If it doesn’t start pouring harder than
it did during Noah’s Ark, Muschamp is 2-4 halfway through his third year with
one conference wins, losses against all three ranked teams he’s faced, and a
beer gut that isn’t getting any smaller.
Which makes me think this
Tennessee game is a really big one for him. The Gamecocks are coming off their
bye week at home against a four loss Vol team that will be without Trey Smith,
their only good lineman, due to blood clots in his lungs. If South Carolina loses tomorrow,
here’s their final four games: at Ole Miss, at #9 Florida, home for
Chattanooga, and at #2 Clemson. Sheesh. The only game they’d definitely win is
Chattanooga, but those other three games are all on the road and could easily be losses, which means he
could potentially finish 4-7 in Year 3 and go into 2019 with the hottest seat
in the conference. His Year 3 record at Florida? 4-8.
I really like Tennessee
in this game to break the still strange Muschamp streak and win by two
touchdowns. These programs are trending in the opposite direction; the Vols got
smoked by Alabama last week (who hasn’t been?), but were coming off a
victory at Auburn and a good effort against Georgia the week prior. Meanwhile, the
Gamecocks have been outscored 60-17 in the first half of their last three
conference games, and their third year starting quarterback Jake Bentley got booed by the home fans
during the Texas A&M game. Vol QB Jarrett Guarantano got knocked out of the
Alabama game, but should be good to go this week; of course, it’s not like South
Carolina gets after the passer, or even stops anyone, as they rank second to
last in the conference in sacks and have the 61st ranked defense in
the country in terms of yards per game. This is a good match up for a team with
a bad O-Line like the Vols since the Gamecocks don’t consistently hit or
even pressure the quarterback week to week. As long as the offensive line doesn’t completely
self-destruct (which could totally happen), they should be able to move the ball and put up points,
potentially even more than the 30 they scored at Auburn two weeks ago.
Side note: If the Vols win
this one, they’ll move to 4-4 with four games left: home for Charlotte, home
for #12 Kentucky, home for Missouri, and at Vanderbilt. Realistically, which of
those games actually scares you? Kentucky, maybe? Maybe? This same team that
didn’t run a play in Texas A&M territory the entirety of regulation in
their game a few weeks ago. Why couldn’t they run the table against that slate?
At the very least, they could still be 7-5 and go bowling, and I think we’d all accept that after how bad they looked in the Florida game in late September.
Prediction: Tennessee
#2
Clemson at Florida State
The Tigers have done
quite well in this rivalry as of late, winning the last three meetings, twice by
double digits. Since last year’s 31-14 beatdown at Clemson, FSU has downgraded
head coaches from Jimbo Fisher to Willie Taggart and gone 3-3 in their last six
games against FBS opponents. Going from Jimbo to Willie is like going from living
in the United States to being sent to Siberia in Soviet Russia.
In Week 1, the ‘Noles
scored 3 points against a Virginia
Tech team that ended up giving up over 600 yards of offense to Old Dominion a few weeks later. Clemson’s
problems and shakiness have been on offense this season, but I’ve never
questioned their defensive prowess, particularly in the front seven (the Tigers
defense rank 4th in the country in yards per game at just 266.3). I
still don’t trust their offense, particularly with true freshman Trevor
Lawrence leading them, but I don’t think it’ll matter this week because FSU’s
offense won’t have a shot at moving the ball against the Clemson D. Plus,
Willie Taggart is still the Florida State coach; he’s got a 51-53 record for a
reason. The Tigers win by double digits.
Prediction: Clemson
#18
Iowa at #17 Penn State
I suppose this is a
playoff elimination game for the Hawkeyes, who could still win out and make the playoff as a one loss conference champion, as unlikely as that
seems.
Did you know Kirk Ferentz makes over $5 million a year, which is one of the
top coaching salaries in the country? Did you also know that he hasn’t won the
Big Ten in almost a decade and a half (2004)? Or that he’s finished ranked just
three times since 2005? I get it; it’s Iowa and it’s nothing more than a middle of the pack Big
Ten job, so we shouldn’t expect them to be Ohio State every year, but how the
hell is he worth $5 million a year? Does he have naked pictures of everyone in
the Iowa athletic department? Did he catch the university president in bed with
a horse?
Plus, let’s be honest,
Iowa is a deceptive 6-1; here are their wins: Northern Illinois, Iowa State,
Northern Iowa, Minnesota, Indiana, and Maryland. And their one loss came
against the only ranked team they’ve played all season, Wisconsin. I don’t
think Penn State is great or anything, and they certainly have issues in pass
defense, but they’ve got better players, are at home, and have the better coach
in James Franklin. Plus, with Butch Jones largely removed from a microphone
week to week, Franklin has firmly grasped the crown for the best coach speak in the country. His ‘average to
good to great but not elite’ speech after they blew the Ohio State game for the
second consecutive year was something to behold, though it’ll never top “Leadership
Reps” “Five Star Hearts” “Brick by Brick” or smoking cigars in the locker room
after Alabama completely took apart a Tennessee team almost completely full of
the guys you recruited. Oh crap, why the hell am I blabbering on about Butch Jones
again? Sorry, old habits. Making fun of Butch Jones is my Stockholm Syndrome.
Prediction: Penn State
#14
Washington State at #24 Stanford
This is one of the
biggest Pac 12 games of the entire season and it’s somehow only on the Pac 12 Network. They couldn’t have put this game on anywhere else? Washington at Cal
is on at 6:30 on FS1… why wouldn’t they take this one in that slot instead
since it’s a significantly better game? Who is making these decisions?
Anyway, State is the last
team in the Pac 12 with one loss or fewer, and I think they'll keep it that way, at least this
week. Cougar head coach Mike Leach, after losing to Stanford in each his first four tries,
has won the last two games against them. Plus, the Stanford offense has been,
at times, really pitiful; they’re 106th
in the nation in total offense, and they’ve scored more than 30 points against
an FBS opponent only once this season, and they needed overtime to do that.
Meanwhile, the Cougar defense is really good; they shut out Oregon’s offense in
the first half last week and limited them to just 328 total yards, and only 58
on the ground. I think Stanford will struggle to move the ball against them all game and
lose by at least ten points.
Prediction: Washington
State
#6
Texas at Oklahoma State
The last time we saw
Texas, they barely held onto beat Baylor at home as the Bears threw multiple
passes into the end zone at the end of the game. Some of their offensive woes in that game could
be attributed to them losing their starting quarterback Sam Ehlinger due to
injury, but he’s supposed to be back and healthy for tomorrow’s game. And
assuming he is, I don’t see any way the Longhorns don’t embarrass Oklahoma
State so badly that 90 year old T. Boone Pickens reconsiders his loyalties.
This is a really bad Cowboy team, maybe the worst Mike Gundy has had since his first year in 2005 when they went 4-7. Their only win against a
Power 5 team in 2018 was when they beat Kansas on September 29th.
Kansas, a team that’s 17-76 this
decade. 17-76!
I think there’s still at
least one loss on the Texas schedule the final month of the year (West
Virginia, at Texas Tech, home for Iowa State, at Kansas), but they shouldn’t
have any trouble with Oklahoma State tomorrow.
Prediction: Texas
#16
Texas A&M at Mississippi State
You could argue that
Texas A&M made the biggest coaching upgrade in the entire country this
off-season when they replaced Kevin Sumlin with Jimbo Fisher. Sumlin is in his
11th year as a head coach (it’s his first year at Arizona) and he’s
had 11 bad defenses, whereas Fisher is one of four active coaches with a
national title. Plus, Sumlin is a supposed offensive guru that's offenses completely fell apart by the end of every season that he didn't have Johnny Manziel under center.
On the other side, there
probably wasn’t a program who made a bigger coaching downgrade than Mississippi
State (except for maybe Florida State with Willie Taggart!), who replaced the best coach in school history, Dan Mullen, with Joe
Moorhead, a guy who consistently looks like he just got done playing “Magic: The
Gathering” for 12 straight hours. I was under the impression that Bulldog QB Nick
Fitzgerald was one of the best returning starters at that position in the SEC, but he’s completely regressed as a passer in his first year with
Moorhead. His completion percentage has plummeted from 55.6% in 2017 to 46.9% this year, his yards per
attempt have dropped by a full yard, and he's thrown 7 interceptions to just 4
touchdowns. Sheesh. The only thing worse for his play than Moorhead’s coaching would
be if he picked up a three pack a day cigarette habit.
A&M is trending in
the right direction; their only losses this season are to the current #1 and #2 teams in the
AP poll, and they played ‘Bama closer than anyone (22 points, but still) and were just a few plays away from beating Clemson. Jimbo is going to get it rolling there, and may even have the Aggies
as a contender in that division by next season.
Prediction: Texas A&M
#12
Kentucky at Missouri
I love Missouri here; the
Wildcat offense has secretly been just average this season (they haven’t scored
more than 27 points against any Power 5 team in 2018), and in their last two
games, they slogged around with a bad Vanderbilt team for four quarters and
preceded it the week before by not running a play in Texas A&M territory
until overtime. Plus, the biggest game of their entire season could be next
weekend when they host Georgia. If the Bulldogs beat Florida tomorrow, it doesn’t
matter what Kentucky does against Mizzou because all they’d need to do to be in
the driver’s seat in the East Division would be to win that game. Meaning they
could be looking ahead to that one and may not take tomorrow’s showdown as
seriously against a Mizzou offense that’s put up points almost every week.
Prediction: Missouri
#9
Florida vs #7 Georgia (in Jacksonville)
The Cocktail Party is the
definitive game of the week in the entire country. The Gators have dominated
this rivalry as of late by winning 21 of the 28 matchups since 1990, though
the ‘Dawgs did manhandle them 42-7 just last year.
The argument for Florida
here is easy; they’re one of the most improved teams in the country from
the opening snap of the season until right now, and Dan Mullen might be the best coach in the conference outside of Nick Saban. Meanwhile, the Georgia offense has
struggled to run the ball consistently all year without backup QB
Justin Fields in the game, and the last thing they put on tape was an absolutely
abominable performance against LSU. Of course, I feel terrible about picking
any team that’s quarterbacked by Feleipe Franks, who happens to don a Gator helmet every week. That dude can throw the ball
really far and.... that’s about it. I mean, he’s considerably better than he was
last season and he still completes less than 57% of his passes.
This game is going to be
a rock fight, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the final score was 13-10 or something like that. I'll take Georgia solely because the Jake Fromm/Fields quarterback combo is better than what the Gators will trot out there with Franks, even if I think it's arguable that Florida has a better overall roster.
Prediction: Georgia
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