It's the Third Saturday in October! It's Tennessee-Alabama! It could be... a blowout! Uh oh!
#1
Alabama at Tennessee
On paper, this one could get ugly. The Tide enter as 28.5 point favorites with the top scoring offense in
the country and an 11 game winning streak over the Vols that runs the entirety
of Nick Saban’s tenure. Plus, here’s the margin of victory for ‘Bama in the five games in Knoxville since 2008: 20, 31, 31, 14, and 39. Lotta great football played by Tennessee there!
Assuming Tua’s knee
injury won’t take him off the field at any point, I don’t see how Tennessee
slows this team down. Sure, the defense held strong last week at Auburn,
particularly in the second half, but Tua hasn’t shown himself to be a poor
decision maker who throws the ball up for grabs the way Jarrett Stidham has. Plus, Tua's been a machine this year (71.5% completion percentage, 14.3 yards per attempt,
21 TDs, and 0 interceptions) and I think the Vols will have a hard time
stopping the Tide offense much the same way everyone else has this season. Tennessee already gave up over 400 passing yards to a similarly talented QB in Will Grier back in Week 1, and if they aren’t forcing turnovers, their defense hasn't shown themselves to be that formidable.
Which means the Vols will
need to rely on the football gods in this one. And there’s some nice,
interesting numerical occurrences at play here…..
- The last time Alabama won 11 straight games over Tennessee was from 1971-1981, and the Tide rolled into Knoxville in 1982 ranked #2 in the country against an overmatched and unranked Vol team (sounds like tomorrow’s game, right?). Tennessee snapped the streak that day and won 35-28.
- Tennessee snapped an 11 game SEC losing streak last week when they went into Auburn and won.
- If you add the individual digits together that make up the year 2018, you get…. 11!
Coincidence? I think not!
Plus, if there’s a
weakness on this Alabama team, it’s their defense, which is arguably the worst
one Saban has had during his time in Tuscaloosa. They aren’t a train wreck,
sure, but teams have been able to move the ball on them in 2018. And if the
Vols can bring the same offense tomorrow that they did into Auburn last week, they should be able to put up some points. Jarrett Guarantano has the fourth highest passer rating in
the conference, and Tennessee has some big, physical receivers that showed last
week an ability to consistently win jump balls down the field. All of this is dependent on the
offensive line holding it together and actually blocking consistently, which is
admittedly a concern, but if they do even a half decent job, Guarantano has demonstrated time and time again his accuracy as a passer.
Plus, you could argue
that this is the toughest game the Tide have played all year. Sure, Tennessee
isn’t their most difficult opponent, but it’s on the road and the last of eight
consecutive games that Alabama will play before their bye week. Plus, Jeremy
Pruitt was on the Tide staff last year; the only person more familiar with
Alabama and their personnel would be anyone that’s still on their current
coaching staff.
Am I allowed to get ideas
here? Am I allowed to pick Tennessee without looking like an idiot and coming off
like a massive homer? No? Crap…
Prediction: Alabama (but
it’ll be closer than everyone thinks!)
#6
Michigan at #24 Michigan State
Another massive game for
Jim Harbaugh; he’s 1-2 in this instate rivalry, with the only victory coming
against the 2016 Spartans, a team that went 3-9. Which means he hasn’t beaten a competent
Michigan State team yet.
My feel for this one is the same as it was last week
for Michigan-Wisconsin; the Wolverines have better players, are arguably better
in all three facets of the game, have one of the best defenses in the country,
and should win this game. Shea Patterson has been really effective since
the Notre Dame loss, while Michigan State has been wildly inconsistent,
particularly on offense. I think Michigan’s defense throttles them.
Prediction: Michigan
#9
Oklahoma at TCU
Before the season, this
looked like one of the games of the year in the Big 12. And when TCU almost
beat Ohio State in Week 3, it looked even juicier. Whoops! The Horned Frogs
have lost two of their last three since then and face an Oklahoma team that is
coming off their bye week looking to bounce back from getting torched by Texas.
Sure, they’ll probably get torched this week also, and every week for the rest
of the season, and maybe every week for the rest of the time Lincoln Riley is
their head coach, but OU QB Kyler Murray is incredible and guarantees his team at
least 35 points just by being on the field. Plus, the Sooners need to win this
one to keep themselves in the conference and playoff race, whereas TCU’s season is
basically over at this point, except for a trip at the end of the season to the
Belk Bowl or the Poinsettia Bowl or the Waste Management Bowl or the “Don’t Use
The Bathroom Outside Antarctica Bowl” or the “Kim Jong Il Memorial North Korea Bowl”.
Prediction: Oklahoma
#16
N.C. State at #3 Clemson
Here’s a tweet from ACC homer
Danny Kanell from earlier this week: “If N.C. State had an SEC logo they would be ranked in
the Top 10. The fact that they are #16 is a joke. #bias #undefeated”. Danny’s
just upset that Texas A&M, an SEC school, poached Jimbo Fisher, the head
coach from his alma mater, Florida State, because they have significantly more
money, better facilities, and arguably better access to the large swath of instate talent. I don’t
understand this anti-SEC bias from some in the media; college football just
matters more down here in the South, and it makes sense that the league would
be superior to the others year to year. A&M isn’t one of the six best
programs historically in the SEC and they were still able to get the coach from
what is arguably the best job in the ACC. Don’t be mad, Danny, just embrace the
truth buddy.
In terms of this game, if
Clemson is going to be deserving of a playoff spot, they should blow the
Wolfpack out this weekend. I’m struggling to find a signature win on the N.C.
State schedule… man, that time they beat Boston
College at home by 5 was really nice. How about their 17 point victory over
Marshall. Hell yeah! They beat Virginia by 14? Awesome! Sign me up brah!
Stop with N.C. State.
They’ve got the worst resume of any undefeated team, and yes, they’d be a two
or three loss team if they were in the SEC.
Prediction: Clemson
#22
Mississippi State at #5 LSU
Incredibly enough, this
will be the 110th meeting between these schools, a rivalry that is
the longest in school history for LSU and the second longest for Mississippi
State, behind only the Egg Bowl. The Bulldogs have also done quite well in this game recently,
winning two of the last four meetings, including last year’s 37-7 throttling in
Starkville.
I can’t seem to get a
feel for LSU week to week, but they should, under the lights in the raucous
Tiger Stadium, win this one against a State team that has scored more than 30
points against a FBS opponent only once this season. I think the Mississippi
State will struggle to move the ball against the physical Tiger defensive
front, and with how much Bulldog QB Nick Fitzgerald has regressed this season,
this game feels like one that could get out of contention quickly.
If LSU wins, it'll set up a massive showdown in two weeks with Alabama. Can the Swamp Monster beat Nick Saban? If he can, a bronze Ed Orgeron statue will probably rise out of the swamps of the Bayou.
Prediction: LSU
Vanderbilt
at #14 Kentucky
In a matchup of two
glorified P.E. teachers, I’ll take the one that didn’t blow an 18 point lead to
Florida at home last week.
Prediction: Kentucky
#2
Ohio State at Purdue
Somehow this is the ABC
Saturday Night Game. Sheesh. I can’t think of a way this one gets interesting
unless Purdue’s head coach Jeff Brohm goes full XFL on everyone again.
Prediction: Ohio State
(by a million)
#12
Oregon at #25 Washington State
I’ve said since the
Stanford game (which they botched horribly) that I thought Oregon was one of
the best teams in the country, led by QB Justin Herbert, who has a real shot to
be the #1 overall pick in April’s NFL draft. This is also a playoff elimination
game, since both teams have a loss.
I scoured the Washington
State schedule trying to find an impressive win. Their victory over a two loss
Utah team by four at home was the best I could find, unless you want to count
the time they beat a 1-5 Oregon State by 19 (and I don’t). Sure, it’s entirely
possible that the Cougars win on Saturday, but I’ll take the Ducks, with their
NFL quarterback and a million fast guys, even if I don’t totally trust their
head coach Mario Cristobal yet.
Prediction: Oregon
Enjoy college football
this weekend, you deserve it!
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