Friday, October 5, 2018

Week 6 College Football Picks: The Cajun Swamp Monster Heads to The Swamp



#1 Alabama at Arkansas
The Razorbacks haven’t beaten an FBS team all year, and frankly, their only real chance to win tomorrow would be if a meteorite hit the Alabama bus on the way to the stadium. Otherwise, the Tide are going to win by AT LEAST five touchdowns and pull their entire starting 22 by halftime.
Prediction: Alabama
Florida State at #17 Miami
It’s the turnover chain versus the exceedingly lame “turnover backpack”. The only thing worse than Willie Taggart’s turnover backpack was Butch Jones’s turnover garbage can from last season.

Taggart has looked like the worst coach in all of the Power 5 the first four weeks of the season, and even with a road win at Louisville last week, he still might be. The Cardinal team they struggled to beat is really atrocious, and the fact that they needed a long miracle TD to pull off the victory is just more evidence of how much of a mess that program is right now. I don’t think this Miami team is great, or even good, but FSU is so bad that they’ll make the Hurricanes look like their legendary ’01 team tomorrow. The ‘Canes thrive off turnovers, and the ‘Noles will, based on everything we've seen this season, be more than happy to oblige them; quarterback Deondre Francois has thrown five interceptions already, and the team has lost seven fumbles. This feels like 31-10.
Prediction: Miami
#4 Clemson at Wake Forest
The Tigers are, based on what they've done on the field, the most over-ranked team in the country. Teams have been able to move the ball on their defense, the offense has been inconsistent and choppy, and Dabo Swinney “Butch”ered the quarterback situation. I don’t suspect they’ll have all that much trouble with Wake this weekend, but the Tigers should be concerned about the kind of product they’re putting on the field week to week, because no one with eyes that work or a functioning brain would have the Tigers in the playoff at this point. Sure, Florida State had many of the same problems in 2014 and still made the playoff, but they were the defending champs with a returning Heisman-winning quarterback AND they finished the year undefeated. Clemson isn’t the defending champion, Kelly Bryant is no longer around the program, and I think the Tigers will finish with at least one loss. And if they do go 11-1, what’s the argument for putting them in over any other one loss team? They won their conference? So what, the ACC is not a great league this year. Tomorrow would be the day, if there ever was one, to go out and lay the smackdown on an inferior opponent and win by six touchdowns. I’m not sure there’s the spark in the program to do so, at least at this point.
Prediction: Clemson
Vanderbilt at #2 Georgia
The ‘Dawgs were sloppy against Tennessee last week and blew multiple scoring opportunities. If they played up to their potential in the first half, they’re up 30-0 at halftime and there’s no question marks coming out of this game. Much like Clemson, tomorrow is the ample opportunity to blow out an inferior opponent, put together 60 minutes of good tape, and get whatever two quarterback or one quarterback offense you're going to run back on track.
Predicition: Georgia
#13 Kentucky at Texas A&M
The Wildcats are 5-0 and the surprise of the college football season. Running back Benny Snell is a dark horse Heisman contender, and UK has some legitimate people in the trenches for the first time in the Mark Stoops era.
I’m still taking Texas A&M. They’re at home, and a good football team that’s only two losses this year were to teams with more talent than them, Clemson and Alabama. And in those games, the Aggies were throwing into the end zone late for the tying two point conversion against the Tigers, and played the best game out of anyone against the Tide this year, losing by only 22.
Prediction: Texas A&M
#8 Auburn at Mississippi State
The departure of Dan Mullen from Mississippi State has completely torpedoed that program. The Bulldogs, with supposedly one of the best returning quarterbacks in the conference in Nick Fitzgerald, have scored just 13 combined points the last two weeks under first year coach Joe Moorhead, who either looks like a guy way in over his head, or someone who just now realized that he took over the second or third worst job year to year in a football-mad conference.
If it’s not Clemson who is the most over-ranked team in the country, then it’s Auburn. The Tigers have done nothing to deserve being ranked 8th to this point, and in their only two games against legitimate competition, they scored only 21 points against Washington and should’ve lost, and blew a second half lead and lost to LSU, a game where they also only scored 21 points.
I’d be tempted to pick Mississippi State here, except for the simple fact that my high school dating life was more active than the Bulldog offense has been the last two weeks. Auburn’s defense is very good, particularly up front, and I expect them to win by a couple of touchdowns, something like 21-7.
Prediction: Auburn
#10 Washington at UCLA
Nebraska at #16 Wisconsin
I put these two games together because it’s still wild to me that neither Chip Kelly at UCLA or Scott Frost at Nebraska have won a game yet. I wouldn’t give either of them much of a chance to get their first victory of the season this week against ranked teams, but which coach wins a game first? Nebraska’s next four games go like this: at Northwestern, home for Minnesota, home for Bethune-Cookman, and at Ohio State. I don’t think they’ll win any of their conference games, but that one against Bethune-Cookman on October 27th has to be a win, right? Here’s UCLA’s next four: at Cal, home for Arizona, home for Utah, at Oregon. Geez, that could be four more losses. Their final three go like this: at Arizona State, home for USC, home for Stanford. Good god, Chip could very easily go 0-12 because outside of USC, I don’t see an even remotely winnable game on their schedule. A winless first season certainly isn’t what anyone expected from Chip when he agreed to become their coach back in December. 
Are we sure football hasn’t just figured Kelly out? I’ve made this point before, but since his 10-6 and NFC East title in 2013 with the Philadelphia Eagles, Chip is paltry 18-33 in his last 51 games as a coach. 18-33! I’d challenge you to name one coach who is thought of as elite, either in the NFL or college, who would ever be that far under .500 over 51 games.
Prediction: Wisconsin, Washington
#6 Notre Dame at #24 Virginia Tech
This feels like a three touchdown victory for the Irish. The Hokies gave up over 600 yards of offense to Old Dominion; why does anyone think they’ll be able to stop Notre Dame? Ian Book brings excitement and versatility to the Irish attack, and you could make the argument that this is the best Notre Dame team Brian Kelly has had since he’s been there, better than the 2012 team that got routed by Alabama in the BCS Title Game. It’s incredible for me to be saying this, but somehow, the Irish are the most underrated team in the country. I know, I know, it’s Notre Dame, one of the most powerful brands in all of sports, how could they be underrated? Case and point, they’ve been far better this season than someone like Clemson, and yet, the Tigers are ranked two slots higher. Explain that to me. It’s time to start giving the Irish some love.
Prediction: Notre Dame
#5 LSU at #22 Florida
It wasn’t that long ago that Florida got ran off their own field by Benny Snell and Kentucky, but since then they’ve won back to back conference road games and scored themselves a game on CBS for the first time in the Dan Mullen era. Mullen is a very good football coach, and the fact that he’s been able to steer this lot in the right direction and make them look half-decent in such a short time demonstrates just how great he actually is. How talented Mullen is has been one of the biggest revelations of this football season; he shows up at Florida and almost instantly puts out a football team that compete week to week; meanwhile, his old job, Mississippi State, has completely eroded back to its pre-Mullen irrelevance.
With that said, I still like LSU tomorrow, even on the road. Again, I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Ed "Swamp Monster" Orgeron has done a fantastic job there. He’s maintained the physicality on the defensive end, a Les Miles staple, while tweaking the offense enough that it no longer looks like a team out of the pre-forward pass days. His teams don’t come out flat, they play with the same energy every week, and transfer Joe Burrow has been very solid at the quarterback position for them. Here’s the other thing; since last year’s home loss to Troy, LSU is 11-2, with their only losses coming last year to Alabama and Notre Dame.
Predicition: LSU
#19 Texas vs #7 Oklahoma (in Dallas)
The game of the weekend. The Longhorns are the most improved team since the first week of the season, while the Sooners haven’t appeared to have lost anything going from Baker Mayfield to Kyler Murray. Texas might have the best defense in the Big 12, evidenced by the fact that they haven’t given up more than 19 points in any of their last three games. Then again, having the best defense in the Big 12 is like saying you’re the prettiest girl in the holler because you have 80% of your teeth.
I like the Longhorns in an upset. Texas can move the ball, and should be able to do so against OU’s shoddy defense, and their defense is good enough that they won’t get completely torched by Murray and Oklahoma’s athletes. And if the Longhorns do win this game, we may have to start considering them not only a viable threat to win the Big 12, but also a potential playoff team. And on a more serious note, beware strip clubs of Dallas, because you’re assuredly going to get a visit from Tom Herman.
Prediciton: Texas

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