Is this finally the week
Tennessee pulls a shocking upset? Is this the first Fall Saturday since God
knows when that I won’t feel like I just got beat up for three and half hours after watching a Tennessee game?
Will this be the day that the Vols win their first conference game since
NOVEMBER 19, 2016? Will this be the weekend that Jeremy Pruitt cries at the
podium over something other than Tennessee's "fight"?
Let’s just start there….
Tennessee
at #21 Auburn
The case for Tennessee is
easy here; Auburn’s offense is a mess, the Tigers have already lost twice in
conference and eliminated themselves from the SEC race (meaning they don’t have
much to play for), and the Vols are coming off their bye week (though, to be fair, I didn't hear from Pruitt this week that they had the best bye week in the history of the program, so did they really get better?). Tennessee’s
problem is going to be that I have no idea how they’ll block Auburn’s defensive
front tomorrow, particularly with how poor their offensive line has played all year. It's entirely possible, even probable, that everything might just get blown up in the backfield instantly, and it
wouldn’t shock me if they didn’t cross midfield the entire game. Jarrett
Guarantano, when given time, has been accurate, but I’m not sure he’ll have
any of that during the game. Auburn scored just 9 points last week during their loss against
Mississippi State; that could be enough to win tomorrow. Plus, with how the
last decade-plus has turned out, why the hell should I have any confidence in
Tennessee? They’re the ultimate letdown program, and their constant losing and
disappointment has trolled the fan base to the point that they've became apathetic.
There’s hardly any energy around this program right now, and that's probably because everyone expects to lose every week. If they’re going to pull off a massive upset at some
point this season, tomorrow would be their best chance to do it. I don’t think,
from what I’ve seen, that they’re up for it.
Prediction: Auburn
Minnesota
at #3 Ohio State
Remember in 2016 when
P.J. Fleck was the trendy up and coming coach? He guided Western Michigan to a
13-1 season and a Cotton Bowl appearance, the greatest season in program history, and at
age 35, was thought to be the next great grab for a bigger time program.
Fast forward to now. Fleck
is a mediocre 8-9 in his first 17 games at Minnesota, with a record of 2-9 in
the Big Ten and no signature wins to speak of. I wonder, if he had it to do
over again, would he still have taken the Minnesota job, rather than just stay
at Western Michigan, dominate his crappy Group of Five league, and continue to
build up his credibility with athletic directors around the country. Think
about how many better jobs than the one he has now opened up after the 2017
season; Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida, UCLA, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Florida
State, etc. Let’s say he won ten games again at Western Michigan in 2017; you
don’t think he’s getting one of those better jobs? It’s an easy sell to a fan
base: “This is P.J. Fleck, yeah he’s got a ridiculous name, but he’s won ten
games back to back years at a Group of Five school and he’s considered to be
the best young upcoming coach in the country”. Instead, he went 5-7 in his
first year at Minnesota, which is a bottom tier Power 5 job, and appears on his
way to another season without a bowl game. Here’s the other thing that’s
happened; no one is talking about him for job openings anymore. So he’s
basically got to make it work at Minnesota, or he’ll just become that guy that
flamed out at a Power 5 job with no guarantees that he'll ever get another one. And
given the track record of Minnesota historically, I wouldn’t bet on him making
it work there. The lesson here is simple; just
because someone gives you more money doesn’t mean it’s a better opportunity. You’re
P.J. Fleck, and in 2016, you were slowly building your brand. Let it build!
Tell people no, and wait for the perfect opportunity.
As for this week, Ohio
State is going to blow them off the field by at least four touchdowns.
Prediction: Ohio State
Michigan
State at #8 Penn State
There was some idiot
before the season that picked Michigan State to win the Big Ten and make the
playoff. Oh crap, that was me? Whoops. Sorry to get my stink on you, Sparty. I
knew that prediction was in trouble when the Michigan State needed a late TD and
defensive stand to beat Utah State in
Week 1. Since then, they’ve lost to Arizona State and Northwestern and
eliminated themselves from playoff contention; they’ll eliminate themselves
from the Big Ten race this week also. As shaky as the Penn State defense has
been at times this season, I’m not sure Michigan State has been consistent
enough on offense to make them pay for that. They scored just 13 points and 19
points in their games at Arizona State and Northwestern, and in the three
games where they scored over 30, they came against Utah State, Indiana, and
Central Michigan, programs with nowhere near the same level of athletes as
them. Penn State wins by two scores at least, and Trace McSorley puts up 400
yards of offense by himself.
Prediction: Penn State
#22
Texas A&M at South Carolina
South Carolina’s Will
Muschamp reminds me of a middle school football coach who would dip skoal
during practice, get angry and call the 12 year old players “pussies”, and
polish off a 12 pack of Natty Light tall boys before each and every game (thus
the beer gut). He also wouldn’t be an employee of the school, but instead just
a guy from the community who volunteered and then would just show up and yell
at the kids because he was an adult and wanted to.
He’s also fortunate that
it’s apparently never rained in Missouri before, because the torrential downpour
that carried on during the third quarter last week completely flipped their
game with Mizzou and kept Muschamp from his third loss of the season.
If you couldn’t tell, I’m
anti-Muschamp. He’s a coordinator masquerading as a head coach who peaks in his
second year on a job and then free falls after that. That’s what happened at
Florida, and it’s certainly shaping up to go that way again at South Carolina.
This game is also about programs going in the opposite direction; Texas
A&M, with first year coach Jimbo Fisher, have looked better every week,
particularly on the defensive end; they didn’t allow Kentucky to cross midfield
the entirety of regulation. Who would’ve ever thought you’d see that from an
Aggie defense? I think A&M goes in there and lays the smack down and wins by
at least three touchdowns.
Prediction: Texas A&M
#6
West Virginia at Iowa State
Iowa State has scored
more than 27 points just one time this season, which was last week at Oklahoma
State. Not breaking any news here, but the Cowboys aren’t exactly known for
their defense. Meanwhile, West Virginia has scored at least 35 points in every game so far this season. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State put up 37 and 42
points on the Cyclones, respectively, and the Mountaineers are certainly on par
with those teams offensively. Even if Iowa State moves the ball and punches it in a few times, I don’t think
they’ll be able to keep up with West Virginia's attack. They could score 35 and
still lose by two touchdowns.
Prediction: West Virginia
Missouri
at #1 Alabama
Another preseason cold
take from me; I had Missouri winning the SEC East. Was I drinking tall boys
with Will Muschamp before I made that pick? That’s the only explanation I can
come up with.
Alabama has been the
real-life embodiment this season of how Steven Seagal actually views himself. In
other words, if Steven Seagal compared his martial arts ability to a football
team, he’d pick the 2018 Tide. Which is why I’ve been attaching Seagal movie
clips to ‘Bama analysis the last few weeks. Saturday’s game is going to be like
his knife fight with Tommy Lee Jones at the end of Under Siege, when, shockingly, Seagal actually got hit by an
attacker on screen. Wow! This was before he stopped getting work with the major
studios and started running all of his own direct to DVD projects where he
became even more the god of hand to hand combat than he already was, despite
the fact that he’s about 50 or 60 pounds too heavy to actually be kicking ass
anymore. The blows Mizzou lands will be when Drew Lock throws a touchdown or
two and the Tigers are able to move the ball up and down the field a little
bit. But this game will still be over before halftime.
Prediction: Alabama
#15
Wisconsin at #12 Michigan
The Wolverines have no
reason to lose tomorrow; they’ve got better players, the number one ranked
defense in the country in both yards per game and yards per play, they’re at home,
and they’re facing a bottom tier Big Ten quarterback in Wisconsin’s Alex
Hornibrook. I’m not sure where I stand on Jim Harbaugh quite yet, but I can
only imagine the piling on that’s going to occur if they lose this one
tomorrow. It’s a night game, Gameday is coming to Ann Arbor, it’s the Saturday
Night Game on ABC…. You’ve just got to win this one if you’re Harbaugh. I…
think they will?
Prediction: Michigan
(gulp)
#7
Washington at #17 Oregon
This one I’m sure about.
Washington has been sluggish all season, and barely held on to beat 0-5 UCLA
last week in front of a half-empty Rose Bowl. Oregon is the home team, coming
off a bye week, and with Justin Herbert (who is 11-3 as a starter), they have
the best quarterback in the game (Sorry Jake Browning). The Ducks looked like
a Top Ten team for the first three and half quarters of the Stanford game, and it’s still incredible
to me that they choked that one away. I like Oregon here by at least 17 points.
Prediction: Oregon
#2
Georgia at #13 LSU
My angry Old Man texted
me last night and tried to make the case for LSU. Besides the fact
that I was amazed his old butt knew how to send a text, I also found myself
being convinced by his argument; Georgia has been struggling to run the ball
without Justin Fields in the game at quarterback, LSU is the home team and
Tiger Stadium is a notoriously tough place to play, and the Tiger defense, with as good and physical as they are, could really slow down the Georgia offense, or at least make them work. Then again, picking LSU also means I have
to take Ed Orgeron, and that's about as tempting as drilling an ice pick into my temple. Last week, I got
on here and praised Orgeron and LSU for consistently showing up week to week
with the same team and effort. Then they went out and ran the clogged toilet
bowl offense for three and half hours and lost to Florida. So I don’t know what
to think. This feels like the classic, “Coach O blows a game he should win, everyone spends the whole week writing LSU off, and then they follow that up by shocking everyone and laying the smackdown for
four quarters”. And I do think that Georgia is going to lose one of their next
four games, so why not this week…..
Crap. This is stupid.
Prediction: LSU (giant
gulp).
Enjoy football this weekend everyone!
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