Thursday, October 4, 2018

The Braves Shocked Everyone By Winning The NL East; Does This Mean They Can Make The World Series?



It’s been a totally phenomenal, completely unexpected season for the Braves. Ever since Atlanta won 14 straight division titles from 1991-2005, there's not been all that much to get excited about in Braves Country. 
Some highlights:
  • The NL Wildcard Game in 2012, aka the "Infield Fly Game"
  • The 2011 Braves team that blew an 8 and 1/2 game lead in September in the Wild Card race and missed the playoffs
  • The Upton Brothers Sports Illustrated cover that included BJ, Justin, and Kate. BJ was arguably the worst Brave ever; in 267 games over two years, here were his stats: 21 home runs, 61 RBIs, a .198 batting average, and 324 strikeouts. Good lord... it's incredible that anyone ever thought he was worth 5 years and $75 million. No wonder Frank Wren got fired as Atlanta's GM. Justin and Kate were fine, and in her case, fine. 
  • A combined 2,753 strikeouts by Atlanta batters in 2013 and 2014
  • A 207-278 record from 2015-2017
  • The rise and fall of the "J-Hey Kid", who went from what looked like a ten time All Star to a guy who completely forgot how to hit in the span of three years. 
  • No playoff series wins since 2001
  • Atlanta’s ex-general manager John Copollela had got fired and banned for life from Major League Baseball in the off-season due to him circumventing the international signing rules, and there were concerns that the punishment for his violations could end up destroying the farm system that Atlanta had been building for the last three years.

So you can see why I wasn't that optimistic going into 2018. Plus, the roster on paper left a lot to be desired. 1st baseman Freddie Freeman, once one of the best players at his position, had seen his career torpedo the last three seasons due to injuries. Nick Markakis was a 34 year old outfielder who looked washed up three years earlier, outfielder and phenom Ronald Acuna was going to spend the first half of April in the minors, and second baseman Ozzie Albies was completely unspectacular in his 54 game sample size from 2017. The pitching staff was even more of a question mark; Mike Foltynewicz was a combined 23-25 in parts of four seasons, Sean Newcomb had only 19 career starts, and the bullpen was a complete wildcard (and still is). There just seemed like there was no way this team would win 90 games and make a playoff run.
Which is why this season and team, full of young guys and homegrown talent, was so special. Winning the division with this young team that is at least a year ahead of schedule was quite possibly the most satisfying sports season of my life. Acuna turned out to be exactly the player every scout thought he'd be (and got some MVP buzz), Freeman had a bounce back season and started in the All Star Game, and most shockingly, Markakis had a career year in his mid-thirties; if this was 2005 we’d all be wondering about what kind of “substances” he was taking. Albies got off to a hot start, and while he cooled off considerably in the second half, still played phenomenal defense, and Foltynewicz looked, at times, like a legitimate ace by posting 202 strikeouts and a 2.85 ERA. The future couldn’t be brighter for this squad; they haven’t really spent any money yet, the young guys will only continue to get better, and the farm system is still rich with talent.
Which is why I wouldn’t be destroyed if this team got swept in the NLDS by the Dodgers. Sure, I’d be disappointed, but again, everything about this season has been a surprise. A winning record was shocking. A playoff series win would be more surprising than a girl agreeing to go on a date with me in high school.
I think this is going to be a tough series for Atlanta. The Dodgers are a better, more experienced team that has captured six straight NL West titles, played in the NLCS three times since 2013, and represented the National League in the World Series just last year. Plus, they’ve got one of the best pitchers in the history of the game in Clayton Kershaw, who will be the LA pitcher in Game 2 and a potential Game 5. 
I still don’t trust this Atlanta bullpen; there’s no definitive closer, a guy who comes in and slams the door on a team and a game, and I don’t even trust any of the other guys out of the pen to be able to get a single out in a big spot, because I’ve seen them struggle far too often to do it all year. The Braves were 17th in bullpen ERA and 12th in bullpen batting average against during the regular season, and they blew 20 saves in 2018. And then there’s the starters; Julio Teheran has one career start in the playoffs, a 2013 outing against the Dodgers that lasted only 2 and 2/3 innings after he gave up 6 runs and 8 hits. Anibel Sanchez hasn’t pitched in a postseason game since 2014, and Kevin Gausman has never made a postseason start. Meanwhile, the closest Foltynewicz, Newcomb, and Touki Toussaint have been to the postseason is if they’ve ever watched it on TV. Oh yeah, and shortstop Dansby Swanson, a fantastic fielder and clutch hitter for Atlanta all year, is going miss the entirety of the NLDS with a wrist injury.
Foltynewicz is a power pitcher, the kind of guy you want anchoring your postseason staff, but he’s realistically not one of the best 10 starting pitchers in the National League. The Braves won all year by hitting the cover off the ball, but in the postseason, where teams have equal rest, and every at bat is hyper-analyzed and prepared for with pitching changes and ironed out defensive shifts, it’s easier to limit an offense than it is during the regular season. Case and point, the Cubs on Monday and Tuesday of this week. That was a great offense during the regular season, but in the 22 high intensity innings they played earlier this week, they only scored two runs. 
I’m also concerned about how this young Atlanta team will respond to the day-to-day and at bat-to-at bat pressure of a playoff series, considering this is the first time that a lot of these guys have ever played baseball in such a stressful and high-strung environment. Don’t get me wrong, they have the talent to win this series, hell, all the series they play in, but this feels like the classic case of “team was better earlier than everyone thought, they have a great regular season, and then flame out in the playoffs because they lack the experience” kind of postseason run. They appear to have enough bats going forward, but pitching is and always have been what wins in the postseason, and the Braves, at least at this point, don’t appear to have enough of it.
Still, this has been a great year. I’ve enjoyed the hell out of watching this team, and their future makes me legitimately giddy. I’m not saying they’re going to win 14 straight division titles, but they should be in and around championship contention for years to come.

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