Sunday, November 25, 2018

The Week In College Football: Who Is The Saddest Program After This Weekend's Losses?



This rivalry weekend was one of the most disappointing and sad weekends for as many multiple big time programs that I can remember in college football. It was so sad that Arizona blew a 19 point lead to Arizona State, Iowa State erased a 17 point deficit against Kansas State in the fourth quarter, BYU squandered a twenty point halftime lead against Utah, Wisconsin lost to Minnesota for the first time since 2003, Washington State lost out on a chance at the playoff AND the conference title in a snowstorm against Washington, and West Virginia spoiled Will Grier’s senior year (and the best quarterback Dana Holgorsen will ever have) with a three loss season by being terrible on defense, and yet, I didn't even consider any of those schools to be among the Top 6 saddest programs coming out of the weekend.
So without further ado, here are the six saddest college football programs from the weekend, ranked by their level of sadness.
6. LSU
Sadness level: Like making $5 dollars at your lemonade stand while your neighbor across the street makes $100.
The Tigers had the game against Texas A&M won on an interception until replay went back and discovered that Aggie QB Kellen Mond’s knee was down as he bent over to pick up the snap that he dropped immediately before the pick. They then gave up a conversion on fourth and 18 (that was at least a yard short), a touchdown on the final play of the game (after the Aggies somehow spiked the ball with a second left), and then eventually lost a seven-overtime marathon 74-72 in what was the highest scoring game in FBS history. The worst part was that they doused Ed Orgeron in Gatorade after the interception in regulation because they thought they had won, only to have it taken back by replay. Poor Ed then had to sit there covered in Gatorade for another hour AND THEY DIDN'T EVEN WIN. It was the cruelest of all karmas.

Sure, it sucks to lose a game like that, but the reason LSU fans are really sad is because the Swamp Monster is their coach, which sticks them in the “Our coach is good enough to win 9 games a year (which keeps him employed) but we’re never going to win the SEC or make the playoff with him either" place, which has got to be a horrifying place to be in. They can’t really justify moving on from Coach O right now because he's got chance to win 10 games this year even though everyone knows that's probably the best he’ll ever be able to do. They had a great season for what their schedule was, but they had a bye week (like they always do) before the Alabama game and still lost 29-0. As long as Saban is the coach at Alabama, Orgeron is never going to beat him, and if you can’t beat the Tide then you’re never going to win the SEC. Saban is the little boy across the street with the $100 lemonade stand. How do LSU fans feel about that reality? Can’t be good, right?
5. USC
Sadness level: Like they just lost to their four biggest rivals (UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Notre Dame) for the first time since 1991.
The only solace the Trojan fans have here is that Clay Helton might get fired, though there’s been no announcement as of yet. But if he doesn’t, then have fun with another year of 7 losses! 
I wrote this last week, and it’s still true; Clay Helton is a guy that would wear sweat pants to a Valentine’s Day date. That should tell you all you need to know about him. But if it doesn't than consider the fact that he’s a losing football coach regardless of the talent on his roster unless he has Sam Darnold propping him up. Just look at those four losses in rivalry games they had this season: they scored 3 points against Stanford, blew a 14-0 halftime lead against Cal by getting outscored 15-0 in the second half, lost to a two-win UCLA team, and raced out to a 10-0 lead against Notre Dame, only to not score again until very late in the 4th quarter when the game was basically in hand.
The problem that the Trojans have is that even if they were to fire Helton, it’s not like there’s a hot shot, sure thing coach out there that's going to come in and replace him and definitely win at a high level. Sure, someone like Matt Campbell at Iowa State is in my view a far superior coach, but is he definitely going to make the playoff there? It’s not like that’s Urban Meyer to Ohio State or Nick Saban to Alabama. The immediate future definitely isn’t bright at USC.
4. Tennessee
Sadness level: When your little brother beats you in basketball in the driveway for the fifth time in seven tries.
I wrote about Tennessee's debacle yesterday, but I thought it was worth mentioning again that in the 57 years from 1955 to 2011, Vanderbilt beat Tennessee just five times. In the seven years since then, they’ve also beaten the Vols five times. If that doesn’t tell you just how far this once proud program has fallen, then how about the fact that in the last 11 years, Tennessee has only two winning records against SEC opponents, Kentucky and Vanderbilt, arguably the two worst programs in the conference year to year. Or the fact that they’ve only had four winning seasons since 2008. Or that they’ve only been to five bowl games in that same span. Or the fact that they haven’t beaten Alabama since 2006. Or that they’ve lost 13 of the last 14 times to Florida. But yeah, other than that everything is great.
3. Florida State
Sadness level: Like your five-win coach has a $20 million buyout
Not only did FSU just have their first losing season since 1976 and miss a bowl game for the first time in 36 years, but they also lost to their three biggest rivals (Florida, Clemson, Miami) by a combined score of 128-51. They lost their national championship winning coach Jimbo Fisher to Texas A&M after last season, despite the fact that FSU has historically been a better program, because the Aggies could pay more and have far better facilities. Taggart is now 52-57 overall as a coach, and as his below .500 record would suggest, it seems extremely unlikely that he'll be able to significantly improve this FSU program that lost six games by three scores or more this season. But with his buyout being as ridiculously high as it is, there’s no way he gets fired after next season. Or hell, maybe even the season after that, because his buyout after the 2020 will still be $13 million. My god. We could potentially be talking about four or five years of Willie Taggart running FSU football so far into the ground that they reach the pits of hell.
2. Auburn
Sadness level: Like your seven-win coach has a $30 million buyout.
The only thing worse than a $20 million buyout? How about $30 million for a 7-5 coach who is now 2-4 against Alabama (with a 52-21 beatdown by them yesterday) and 21-19 in the SEC the last five years? I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again; I know Auburn gave Gush Malzahn a new contract because they were worried that Arkansas was going to offer him a big deal. So what? Why would you be afraid of that? Why not let him walk? Why commit that amount of money to a guy that’s won one SEC Championship and had one year with less than four losses? Why? You’re now stuck with Gus for… hell, three or four more years? At least? He’s shown you what he is! A four or five loss coach who had one magical season all the way back in 2013. I think his 21-19 SEC record is a more accurate snap shot of what he is as a football coach than anything that happened more than five years ago.
1. Michigan
Sadness level: Urban Meyer is our daddy
Just an absolutely brutal loss yesterday. I would be completely inconsolable if I were a Michigan fan today. 
Everything was lined up perfectly for the Wolverines to end their six game losing streak against Ohio State; Urban Meyer constantly looked like he just got shot in the back of the head by John Wilkes Booth, the OSU defense was in abominable shape, and Michigan had the top ranked defense in the country… but instead, they got pulverized. The Wolverine offense looked like one straight out of the 1960s, their defense was really awful and slow, Buckeye QB Dwayne Haskins played the game of his life, and all the goodwill that Jim Harbaugh had built up nationally completely vanished and replaced by every question that everyone ever had about him.
I don’t see any way that things get better there soon, unless Urban retires (and don’t rule that out) and the Buckeyes screw up their coaching hire. The reality is that Michigan is married to Harbaugh like it’s the 1800s. They can’t get out of the marriage to the guy they’re paying Nick Saban-money and given all the power in the world to. They’re stuck with his rigidness, his lack of innovation offensively, and the reality that he’s never even won a conference championship AND just became the first Michigan coach to ever lose his first four games to Ohio State.
So what do you do? How do you go to the guy you’ve given so much power to and demand he make changes, particularly on offense? I don’t think you can. There are no good choices or great answers here. What’s shocking to me is that he hasn’t been able to recruit even a slightly above average quarterback in four years. Shea Patterson was really really bad yesterday and looked limited as hell. If he could ever get that position right I don’t think we’d be talking about their offense being completely in the toilet all the time. But he’s got to go out there and do it.
The truth is that while Harbaugh’s made a bunch of noise and been paid a ton of money, he’s been a massive disappointment at Michigan so far. Four years in and he hasn’t even won his conference division yet. That’s not what anyone thought they were signing up for when he was hired before the 2015 season.
Teams Still Alive For The Playoff
Here’s our six: Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Ohio State.
I think Alabama and Notre Dame are already in. The Irish ran the slate and can’t help or hurt themselves next weekend because they don’t have a conference championship game to play in. But there’s no way a 12-0 Irish team gets left out here. 
I also think Alabama is definitely in even if they lose to Georgia next week because they’ve won every game they’ve played in this season by at least 22 points. Plus, I don’t think the committee will be able to ignore the fact that the Tide would be favored against every opponent by at least a touchdown (and they didn’t ignore this fact last year either).
Undefeated Clemson makes it in by winning the ACC Title Game against a crappy Pittsburgh team that only scored three points against Miami yesterday. If they lose then it gets dicey, because they would’ve played the worst schedule of any of the six contenders and I think all the other teams they’d be competing against would’ve run the table against their garbage schedule.
Georgia makes it in if they beat Alabama in the SEC Title Game. A loss gives them an 11-2 record and I think that would leave them out.
Oklahoma makes it in if they beat Texas in the Big 12 Title Game and Georgia loses to Alabama. If it came down to OU and Ohio State for the final playoff spot, I think the committee would take the Sooners because while they have similar resumes, the Sooners loss to a good Texas team on a neutral field by three points is infinitely better than the Buckeyes losing by 29 on the road to a 6-6 Purdue team. Plus the OU offense might be the best unit in the entirety of college football, even if their defense would be the worst that’s ever made the playoff. So for the Buckeyes to make it, I think they’d need to beat Northwestern in next week’s Big Ten Title Game, and then have Georgia lose to Alabama and Oklahoma lose to Texas. I suppose Clemson could lose to Pittsburgh, which would help the Buckeyes, but that's about as likely as me waking up tomorrow with spider legs. 


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