The Week In Football: The Stupidity Of Firing Your NFL Coach, And Other Week 17 NFL Thoughts

The 2014 NFL regular season is in the books, and Week 17 was full of joy for some, and disappointment for many. Teams (San Diego) choked, coaches were fired, and 20 teams had their seasons end. It was a wild Sunday, so let’s just get into it.

San Diego Chokers

The Bolts picked the worst time to play their poorest game since their 37-0 beat down at Miami in Week 9. Philip Rivers, just a week after leading his team to the most dramatic comeback win of the NFL season, was shockingly sub-par, throwing for just 291 yards and two interceptions, while completing just 58.8% of his passes. I’d blame him more if he wasn’t missing his best receiver (Keenan Allen), his two best running backs (Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead) or taking snaps from his FIFTH different center of the season. Plus, during the game, they lost right tackle D.J. Fluker in the first half. That might explain why Rivers was running for his life the entire game, or why he got sacked seven times.

The injuries were obviously devastating for San Diego this year, and they were a major factor in why they came up short. But it doesn’t make yesterday’s no-show any more excusable. The Chiefs were starting CHASE DANIEL, only the Chargers were unable to really bother him the entire day. And, despite the injuries, they left a ton of points on the field. Nick Novak missed a 52 yard field goal late in the third quarter, they had an Eddie Royal TD late in the game overturned, leading to a 4^th and goal throw from Rivers that fell incomplete, and then, with four minutes left, Donald Brown was stopped on 4^th and 1 on the Kansas City 20 yard line. If you want to win NFL games, particularly against pretty good squads, you just can’t come up short on possession after possession like that. The game was there to be had, and San Diego wasn’t able to take it.

Now is as good of a time as any to admit I was wrong about the Bolts in 2014. I’d been on the “San Diego is really good” bandwagon all year, mostly because I picked them to go to the Super Bowl at the beginning of the year. They duped me all season. There was the impressive, eye-popping victory over Seattle in Week 2, and the impressive 5-1 start. And even when they dropped to 5-4, they rebounded quickly by winning three in a row, including an amazing comeback victory over Baltimore. Sure, they struggled against New England and Denver, but they shocked me, and made me believe again after their aforementioned come from behind win over the crippling Niners. After all those miracles, all they had to do to make the playoffs was win a road game against a team starting Chase Daniel. And they couldn’t do it.

On Friday, when I was making my Week 17 predictions, and heard that Alex Smith was out, I immediately, and foolishly, dismissed this game, because I didn’t think there was any way the Chargers could blow this one. Chase Daniel? Please. But then, as the weekend rolled along, I started to get a horrible, nervous felling in my stomach about this one. Wouldn’t it be my luck that San Diego, fresh off the most improbable victory of the NFL season, come into a must-win game against a team that’s missing it’s starting quarterback, and just absolutely blow it? No, it couldn't be, right? Right? Wrong.

Falcons Flying Low

Atlanta’s big swing and miss in the Georgia Dome yesterday brought one of the NFL’s ten worst team’s season to a screeching halt. It was alarming just how much better Carolina was than them yesterday, but turnovers murdered the Falcons all day. The Panthers’ offense didn’t even need to be great to win yesterday, because they benefited from two pick-sixes, and a fumble deep in Atlanta territory that set them up with a short field. It was surprising just how little of a push their offensive line was able to get against the Carolina front seven, and just how much the Panther running attack bullied their defense. Cam Newton’s driving, four yard TD run was the perfect example of that. He literally got hit at the line of scrimmage, only he and his offensive lineman were able to just get lower, and push their way into the end zone.

The lack of NFL-caliber players in the trenches is one of the reasons why I wouldn’t have fired head coach Mike Smith if I was Falcons’ owner Arthur Blank. Sure, they’ve got Matt Ryan and some nice skill position players (Julio Jones, Roddy White), but they might be the worst team in the NFL on the offensive line and in the defensive front seven. They can’t run the ball or pass block, and any team with even a semi-decent rushing attack blows Atlanta off the ball and basically does what they want. This is one of the worst rosters in the NFL, and I’m not sure there was anything Smith could’ve done about it.

Black Monday

The Falcons’ Smith, the Jets’ Rex Ryan, and Bears’ Marc Trestman were the only three NFL coaches that got the axe this morning, giving us a total of five head coaching vacancies in the NFL, including the Raiders’ Dennis Allen, who was fired earlier in the season, and the Niners’ Jim Harbaugh, who came to a mutual agreement with the team to leave the organization. Rather than speculate about who will be the next head coach in all of these cities, I think it’s better to ask this question:

Which of these five coaches really deserved to get fired?

Seriously, how many?

I have no idea if Allen was a good coach, though he did go 8-28 in his two and a quarter seasons in Oakland. Then again, I almost never think a Raiders’ coach should be fired, because that’s by far the worst-run team in the NFL, and you pretty much have no chance once you get hired. Including interim coaches, Oakland has had EIGHT head coaches since they last made the playoffs (and Super Bowl) in 2002. At some point, your organization just sucks, and there isn’t a head coach in America that can do anything about turning your franchise around until that dreadful front office gets fixed.

The biggest travesty of the NFL season was the 49ers’ front office and Jim Harbaugh’s inability to get along, which led to their mutual split. You’re telling me that parting of the ways was justified? In four seasons, he went to three NFC Championship Games, one Super Bowl, won five playoff games (including three on the road), and went 44-19-1. Really? If you’re the Niners, good luck ever hiring someone again that has that level of success in his first four years coaching your franchise.

Mike Smith was the most successful coach in the history of the Falcons’ franchise, leading Atlanta to winning years his first five seasons in charge. That’s more impressive than you’d think, considering the Dirty Birds had never had back-to-back winning seasons in the history of the franchise until he got there. Sure, they only won a single playoff game during his tenure, and the last two years were less than desirable, but does that mean he deserves to be fired? I don’t think so. They just don’t have the personnel to play championship-level football year in and year out. They’re soft and mediocre in the trenches, and you can’t win that way. How much of that is Smith’s fault? Sure, he has some say in picking the players, but isn’t that ultimately GM Thomas Dimitroff’s job? I understand the issues with clock management that Smith had, but is that enough to get him fired? I don’t think it should be, and it certainly hasn’t cost Andy Reid his job.

I don’t think I would’ve fired Trestman either. Really, we’re going to give this guy two years? The offense, the side of the ball he was brought into fix, has been fairly decent since he came to town. Sure, Jay Cutler was awful for most of the year, but that un-Bearlike defense was just as, if not more, responsible for Chicago’s failures this season. Plus, Chicago, despite Cutler’s struggles, was able to put up points in almost every game. That defense never stopped anyone. Mel Tucker, their defensive coordinator, should take more of the blame this season than Trestman. 

Finally, Rex Ryan, the only coach of the five that I really feel like I could justify firing, mostly because I think it’s just time for a culture change in New York. Though, to be fair to Ryan, how many NFL coaches have been forced to rely on two different rookie quarterbacks at the same job? And how many were saddled with a stooge like John Idzik as their GM?

Here’s the thing with head coaches; there are a select few (think Bill Belichick) that are just smarter than everyone else, and about as many (think Jay Gruden or Wade Phillips) who look like a lost little boy on the sidelines that isn’t in control of anything that’s going on. Most everybody else falls somewhere in the middle, like Smith, or even a Super Bowl winner like Mike Tomlin.

Do you think Tomlin is a great coach? I don’t. He’s not terrible, and he’s obviously got some talents as a motivator and a leader of men, but besides that, what sets him apart from two dozen other NFL coaches? Nothing really. You’re telling me half the league couldn’t achieve what Tomlin has accomplished in Pittsburgh? Of course they could. If you switched Tomlin and Smith in 2008, don’t you think the results of the two teams would be the same? I do. The only real difference between Tomlin and those aforementioned two dozen NFL coaches is the stability and consistency that is present in the Steelers’ front office, and the lack of that in a large portion of front offices around the league. Pittsburgh has consistently drafted the right kind of players (offensive and defensive lineman), and surrounded Ben Roethlisberger with undervalued skill position players in late rounds of the draft. Everybody loves flashy wideouts and elite running backs, but the dirty little secret of the NFL is that you can pretty much find those guys in every round of the draft. Let’s take a look at Roethlisberger’s top weapons, and what round the Steelers drafted them in:

Antonio Brown (led the league in receptions and receiving yards this season): 6^th round

Martavis Bryant: 4^th round

Markus Wheaton: 3^rd round

Le’Veon Bell: 2^nd round

Heath Miller: 1^st round

See? One first round pick, Miller, a tight end, someone who spends almost as much time blocking as he does trotting out to catch passes. And even with them filling out their receiving core and backfield with mid-to-late round picks, they still finished second in the NFL in yards per game, and seventh in points. You don’t win Super Bowls by having the best skill position players. It starts with having the right quarterback, an offensive line that can push people around and protect him, and a defensive front seven that can stop the run and get after the passer. Look at the Cowboys this season. Why have they been so successful? It’s not because they’ve got a zillion elite wide receivers; basically, it’s Dez Bryant (who is great) and a bunch of no names. In fact, overall, this might be the worst they’ve been at receiver since Romo began starting in 2006. No, they’ve been great (and, in my opinion, the team most likely to knock off Seattle in the NFC) because of that offensive line, which has been slowing built through the draft the last few years. That unit is the best in the NFL, and is the major reason Demarco Murray just set the Dallas record for rushing yards in a season. Murray was a nice player before the season began, but behind that offensive line, he turned into the reincarnation of Emmitt Smith. Heck, they aren’t even that good on defense, but their O-line is so good that it doesn’t matter, because they can keep that mediocre side of the ball on the sidelines for long stretches of the game by controlling the clock with that powerful, punishing running game. Notice that Dallas really hasn’t gotten torched too many times this season, something Cowboy fans were accustomed to seeing in year’s past. Find me a group of wide receivers or running backs that makes the defense they share a locker room with look semi-competent. Hint: there aren’t any.

Everybody loves to yell, “Fire the coach” whenever things don’t go right, but in the NFL, I think the best strategy, a lot of the time, is to ignore the idiot fans (if you listen to those clowns, you’ll never win. Fans are, by definition, fanatical, and mostly crazy. Many are incapable of even really articulating the problems with their favorite team, so instead, they just call for the coach’s head whenever they get angry), but also, stand by your guy, and not rock the boat. That line of thinking is why the Steelers have been consistently competitive since the 70s, won six Super Bowls (the most ever), and had just three different head coaches since 1969. You’re telling me they hit three straight homers, and hired three great, elite NFL minds in a row? There’s no way that happened. If anything, Pittsburgh was just smarter than everyone else, because they hired a guy, believed they made the right decision, were patient with him, and tried their hardest to surround that coach and his staff with the best players possible. And when things haven’t gone well, like from 1998-2000, when under Bill Cowher, the Steelers missed the playoffs three straight years, or the last two seasons under Tomlin, which ended at 8-8, instead of throwing their hands up in the air and firing the coach, Pittsburgh did the exact opposite. They stuck by their guy, believed in the process and what they’d built, and eventually found their way back into the playoffs.

The head coach has to be the leader and voice of the team, and he has to have the ear of every player in the locker room. It’s really that simple. If I was ever running an NFL team, I’d only fire my head coach for the following football reasons:

1. They have Wade Phillips Syndrome (meaning they looked lost and out of control on the sidelines)
2. The players were starting to tune out both he and his message
3. It was time for a culture change (which is why I was fine with Rex Ryan being fired)
4. Our record was significantly worse than the level of talent we had on the field

Besides that? I don’t think I could justify it. Did Trestman or Smith look lost on the sidelines? Have the players tuned them out? Neither of them are particularly overbearing personalities, but neither was Tony Dungy, or Pete Carroll, both Super Bowl winners. Did Trestman even get the opportunity to establish a culture? No, not really. And was the Mike Smith culture so terrible? I mean, it did produce five winning seasons. And do either of these men have enough, elite level NFL players to legitimately contend for a championship? No, of course they don’t. Interestingly enough, both Atlanta and Chicago have two of the five best receiving units in the league, yet are both legitimately horrible on the offensive line and in the front seven. No wonder they went a combined 11-21.

Wild Card Weekend

Here are the playoff match ups for Wild Card Weekend (seeding in parentheses):

AFC:

(6) Baltimore at (3) Pittsburgh

(5) Cincinnati at (4) Indianapolis

NFC:

(6) Detroit at (3) Dallas

(5) Arizona at (4) Carolina

I’ll write more about these games when I make my picks later in the week, but early on, I wouldn’t be shocked if the home teams won all the games weekend. Pittsburgh, to me, is just playing at such a higher level right now than anyone else in the AFC, besides New England. Detroit will be without Ndamukong Suh on Sunday, after he was suspended for stomping on Aaron Rodgers’ injured leg, meaning they’re going to be in even more trouble trying to slow down the Dallas rushing attack. And I’m pretty sure it's never a good idea to pick Andy Dalton or Ryan Lindley to win a road playoff game. So that's where I am right now. Then again, I probably just gave at least two of those teams death sentences by just making that declaration. I’m sorry guys. It wasn’t intentional.

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Finally, from my Angry Old Man, who we all know couldn’t be satisfied two weeks in a row. The Christmas Spirit had him in a good mood, but we all secretly knew that wouldn’t continue. Here are his wise words:

“Since everyone knows you’re the worst person on the internet at making football predictions, I just wanted to take this opportunity to take you through your greatest hits of the football season. Chicago Bears in the NFC Championship Game? Big year for Cordarrelle Patterson? Green Bay Packers not very good? Colin Kaepernick ‘electric’? San Diego Super Chargers?.....”

He rambled on for a long time, and even started attributing statements to me that weren’t true, like, “E.J. Manuel second coming of Joe Montana?” and, “The Kansas City wide receivers will have a huge year this season!” You know, just stuff like that. It’s always hilarious and bothersome to go back and look at your own predictions and declarations from earlier in the year. For example, here was the top 10 of my first NFL power rankings of the season, which occurred after Week 3.

1. Seattle
2. Cincinnati
3. San Diego
4. Denver
5. Arizona
6. Philadelphia
7. Atlanta
8. Chicago
9. Carolina
10. Detroit

Yikes! Four of my top 10 missed the playoffs! Atlanta at 7^th, Chicago at 8^th, and Carolina at 9^th? And there are the stupid Chargers, all the way at 3^rd. And no Green Bay or New England! I know, I’m a genius.

For the record, Atlanta was coming off their Thursday Night thrashing of Tampa Bay, Chicago had just won at San Francisco on Sunday Night, and Carolina’s defense was playing extremely well, kind of like how they did yesterday in Atlanta. More than anything, it’s just amazing how quickly things can flip, and how perceptions of an NFL team can change in about two and half seconds.

Regardless of how many picks I get right, or how many times you guys scratch your head, get extremely confused, and say out loud, “What?” after you read something I’ve wrote, I appreciate all the support I’ve gotten from everyone this football season. But it’s not over. I’ll be back later in the week to write about Wild Card Weekend, and the college football playoffs.

But for now, enjoy your all the great college football games this evening. You deserve it.