Friday, December 12, 2014

The Overrated Season and Career of the Black Mamba, Plus Week 15 NFL Picks




Yesterday, I was sitting comfortably on the couch in my living room at home, eating a late breakfast, watching The Herd with Colin Cowherd, on ESPNU. Colin must’ve had the day off, because he wasn’t in the studio, so, instead, they had one of the many ESPN replacement talking heads in his place. This guy, whoever he was, opened up a segment by having the Worldwide Leader’s NBA Insider Chris Broussard on as a guest to talk about the latest news and rumors in the NBA. I watched silently and emotionlessly as he talked about Cleveland’s recent improving play, and the abysmal and dysfunctional Knicks, among other things. Finally, before letting him go, the host asked Broussard about Kobe Bryant and the Lakers.

My ears perked up. I’m not sure why I was so interested in the best player on a 6-16 team that’s destined for the lottery, but for whatever reason, any Kobe talk has always drawn me in. That guy is one of the most polarizing athletes to ever put on a uniform, and someone who is endlessly fun/frustrating to talk/write/think about.

Unfortunately, Broussard, someone who I have a decent amount of respect for as a basketball thinker, said maybe the dumbest thing anyone has ever said about Kobe this season. I’m paraphrasing, but basically, here was his opinion on Kobe: “To me, despite his poor shooting percentage, he’s enhanced his legacy this season, because of his play as an individual player”……

What? Seriously? A guy having one of the least efficient (he’s shooting 39%!), and largest and most egregious volume scoring season in the history of the NBA, is enhancing his legacy?

And the worst thing was, this talking head host didn’t even challenge him on that statement! How could you not with an opinion as ludicrous as that? Where is the voice of reason on Kobe in the national media? Only a few analysts and journalists have really criticized him, and most, like that clown Bill Plaschke, a writer for the Los Angeles Times, have gone as far as saying that he was having a “great season”, because he’s putting up "unbelievable" numbers (Really? Great?) at age 36.

And those in the media who have been critical of Bryant really haven’t gone far enough, in my opinion. Why are they afraid to say that Kobe, truthfully, has been legitimately terrible this season? Why are they afraid to say that the Black Mamba might be the main reason this team is 6-16, and the worst Laker team ever?

Just looking at his stats, you could be deceived into think that Bryant is having a pretty good season. He’s averaging 5 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game, and his 25.5 points per game are just .1 behind James Harden for the league lead. That looks pretty good right? Sure, I guess it would, until you look deeper; Kobe, as mentioned above, is shooting a porous 39% from the floor, on 22.4 shots attempts per game, the 5th highest total of his 19 years. Plus, he doesn’t really capitalize on his obscene amount of shot attempts, as he only makes 8.7 of them a game, meaning there are an average of 13.7 Laker possessions per game that end with a missed Bryant field goal. That doesn’t seem like all that much, until you look at the four other highest scorers in the league:

James Harden: 25.6 points per game, 41.9 field goal percentage, 7.5 made field goals per game, 17.9 field goal attempts per game, 10.4 possessions per game that end with a Harden miss.

Anthony Davis: 25.1 PPG, 56.9 FG%, 9.8 FGM, 17.1 FGA, 7.3 possessions per game that end with a Davis miss.

LeBron James: 24.8 PPG, 47.5 FG%, 8.6 FGM, 18.1 FGA, 8.9 possessions per game that end with a James miss.

Blake Griffin: 23.7 PPG, 50.3 FG%, 9.1 FGM, 18.2 FGA, 9.1 possessions per game that end with a Griffin miss.

Those missed shots add up over the course of a game, a month, and a season. Plus, there’s no real way to numerically quantify the amount of his teammates’ will that he breaks every game by looking them off and forcing up a terrible 28 foot shot despite the fact that he’s double teamed. Eventually, when guys figure out that they aren’t going to get the ball, they stop moving on offense (leading to a bunch of guys standing around), they won’t be willing to pass the rock if it ever magically finds its way into their arms, and if they’re big guys, they’ll stop killing themselves to get offensive rebounds.

I’ve watched the Lakers way too many times this year, and I’ve seen multiple games this season where you could physically see Kobe making this decision: “Screw these guys, we’re losing, I’m the Black Mamba, and instead of continuing to be a good teammate by involving them on the offensive end, I’m instead going to hog the ball, shoot as many times as possible, and go one-on-one (or one-on-three, or one-on-four, whatever it takes) for the rest of the game. Oh yeah, and I’m going to yell and curse at them when they get beat on defense, or don’t get back to stop a fast break, despite the fact that I might be the laziest defender in the NBA”.

Basically, when he goes into that mode, you know it’s over for L.A. He kills their wobbly chemistry, and destroys any positive energy or impact created by his teammates during the game.

And yes, I realize this is a terrible Lakers’ roster. You knew it was going to be a long season in Los Angeles when the teams’ five best players were a 36 year old Kobe, Carlos Boozer (a guy who would rather have a colonoscopy than play defense), post-Linsanity Jeremy Lin, rookie Julius Randle, and Swaggy P. This roster was destined to suck, and be one of the worst defensive teams ever. They were set up to fail. So what can Kobe do about that? I see him having two options: either he can strangle every member of the team, and then build a time machine that magically transports the Showtime Lakers to 2014; or he can just start acting like he gives a crap defensively, and at least pretend that he cares about his teammates. And since time travel, at least at this point, is impossible, coupled with the fact that he can’t legally murder all of his teammates, I guess he’s going to have to, as painful as it is for him, go for the second option.

Clearly though, he isn’t, and never has, chosen to make that decision. He made news just yesterday by calling his teammates, “Soft like Charmin”, and he seems to take great joy in publicly berating everyone in the organization. Bryant, a guy who, early in his career, was real skiddish/didn’t care about talking to reporters, seems to have figured out that the media really cares about what he says. They will literally run with whatever he gives them, and spin it in a positive light. It doesn’t matter what he says, they’ll always find a way to make him look good. If he's openly critical of his teammates, or the front office, he's just a "competitor, and a five time champion, so he can say that". Or something like that. I was legitimately horrified when I heard a story Smush Parker told Dan Le Betard about Kobe. Supposedly, when he and Bryant were teammates, Parker approached him to talk about something non-basketball related, only to have the Mamba tell him, “You can’t talk to me. You need more accolades under your belt you come talk to me”. Real nice Kobe. What a sweetheart. The only thing more shocking than that was the media’s reaction to that story, which has basically been nonexistent. Can you imagine the negative backlash LeBron would face if it ever came out that he said something that self righteous to a teammate? It would dominate every talk show for days or weeks, and Skip Baseless and Screamin’ A. Smith would both spontaneously combust yelling at each other about it. Actually, I might want that to happen. Please, I’m begging you former/current Heat or Cavs beat writers, if you have a story like that, please leak it to the media.

Anyway, with Kobe, a story like that is swept under the rug, and ignored. I can’t remember any other athlete having this many excuses made for him throughout his career. For example, Bryant was legitimately horrible for long stretches of the 2010 NBA Finals (he shot 40.5% during the series, including the legendarily bad 6-24 in Game 7), but because the Lakers won, everybody magically forgot that, hyped him up for the entire summer, and moved him way up on their all time players list.

Are we so desperate for this guy to be this generation’s Jordan that we’ve ignored his flaws, bad games, and shortcomings? Are we so blinded by rings, flashy highlight films, and the “he’s a winner, he’s a killer” narrative that we can’t have a proper perspective on Bryant, and his place in NBA history? People automatically throw this guy in their top 10 players of all time, while simultaneously ignoring the great feats and accomplishments of so many legendary players.

Now don’t get me wrong, Kobe is a great player, and a definite Hall of Famer, but it’s hard for me to see an argument for him as one of the 10 greatest players of all time. He’s never had a season where he shot over 50% from the field, or even 47% (his high for a season is 46.9%, in 2001-02). He has averaged 25.5 points per game in his career, but he’s also led the league in total shot attempts 6 times, and is leading the league again this year. I’d argue he’s achieved that high average mostly due to the fact that he’s been given free reign to do whatever he wants on the offensive end since Shaq left. And what does Kobe love to do? That’s easy, it’s to put up as many shots as humanly possible. And his “great” season this year isn’t really that impressive when you consider this: how many NBA players could, given that they were playing in a Kobe-like role on their team, average 25.5 PPG on 22.4 FGA, while shooting at least 39% from the floor? Half? And how many would average more points, and shoot a higher percentage? 25% of them? Maybe more? I have no idea, and we’ll never know, because there are hardly any players that have that much freedom on the offensive end, and those that do (like LeBron) realize that it would destroy their team’s chemistry if they decided to play a Kobe game.

But Kobe doesn’t care about that, and ultimately, he’s always been a guy on the basketball court that views the game like this: “Whatever is best for me is best for the team, and forget what my teammates think about it”. That, among other things, is why he falls short of the top 10 for me. Michael Jordan, as selfish and soul-crushing as he was towards his teammates at times, eventually realized that he needed those guys to win, and figured out a way to coexist with them, eventually growing to accept their shortcomings compared to his immense skill set. Guys like Bill Russell, Magic Johnson, and Tim Duncan, were great teammates throughout their entire careers, and did an excellent job of elevating everyone’s level of play around them. Plus, all four of those guys just happened to be better players than Kobe.

Bryant never quite impacted the game in all facets like Larry Bird did, and as impressive as his longevity has been, it can’t come close to touching Kareem Abdul Jabbar’s, who won Finals MVP’s 14 years apart (1971 and 1985). Wilt, by all accounts, was a selfish jerk, but there’s never been such a singularly overpowering force in the history of the Association. LeBron, despite playing fewer seasons, has already surpassed Bryant’s overall legacy (James has four league MVPs to Kobe’s one), and King James, like Bird, consistently impacts the game in more facets than the Bryant ever dreamed of. I’d rather have Hakeem Olajuwon (he averaged at least 20 points and 10 rebounds per game for the first 12 years of his career) and Shaq (he averaged at least 20 points and 10 rebounds per game for the first 13 years of his career) than Kobe, because I don’t have to deal with all the bad teammate stuff with those guys. Plus, I get more consistent game-to-game production from them, even if I have to worry about Shaq deciding that he’s going to coast through large stretches of multiple regular seasons.

There’s ten players right there. And I haven’t even mentioned guys like Oscar Robertson and Jerry West, who I’d also rank above Kobe, or Moses Malone, one of the greatest rebounders of all time, who also happens to be a 3 time league MVP, and the best player on one of the greatest NBA teams of all time, the 1983 Philadelphia 76ers. I’d stick Bryant at 14th, and feel great about it. And there’s no shame in being the 14th greatest player of all time. Why should there be? You’re a Hall of Famer, and an NBA Legend. But let’s not act like it’s a problem to acknowledge that there were other guys who played the game better.

There’s only two guarantees about the Lakers’ next two seasons (years in which Kobe will make 23.5 million and 25 million, by the way): they’re going to lose a ton of games, embarrassing and crapping on the Laker brand; and Kobe is going to shamelessly and coldly gun, and go after his own stats. I hope destroying the team’s chemistry just so you can climb up the all time scoring list is worth it. We’ll never know. Only the Black Mamba will.

Now, onto my NFL picks….

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For the first time since August, we have a weekend without any college football games, save the Army-Navy game, which would be a really big deal if this was 1940. And just for the record, I’m taking Navy, who has won 12 games in a row in that series.

We’ve got 3 weeks left in the NFL season, and the pressure and stakes have never been higher this year in every locker room. It’s going to be an exciting stretch run (Home team in CAPS).


Cardinals over RAMS

I had the Cards last night, and was extremely worried that they were going to fly into St. Louis, in one of those kooky Thursday night games, playing against one of the hottest teams in the NFL, and just get blitzed. Drew Stanton against that defense? Sheesh. And when he injured his knee, they brought in Ryan Lindley, a guy I’ve never heard of who I instantly had less faith in than Stanton. But they played great defense all night, and the offense did just enough for them to win. Isn’t it a shame that this team, as talented as they are, could end up falling way short of their goal because of a few dumb quarterback injuries? If Stanton’s injury is serious, good luck the rest of the season with Lindley. You aren’t winning a playoff game with that guy starting for you.

Steelers over FALCONS

Normally I would just say, “Atlanta sucks!” and move on, but the Falcons played their most impressive game since Week 3 on Monday night, against the best team in the NFL, Green Bay. After an abysmal first half, they scored 30 second half points, and lost by only six after they attempted two of the worst onside kicks I’ve ever seen. Julio Jones was unguardable the entire night (11 catches, 259 yards, 1 TD), and if he plays like that again, Atlanta will be in this game for the duration. Unfortunately for the Falcons, Pittsburgh has won a few games this season simply because their pass rush was so overwhelmingly dominant, and Atlanta’s O-line is terrible. I can’t see them keeping Steeler rushers out of Matt Ryan’s face. The Dirty Birds will be competitive, but they’ll ultimately come up short. Good thing they play in the terrible NFC South, because it doesn’t really matter if you lose week-to-week, as long as you win your division games. What an embarrassment.

GIANTS over Redskins

Attention New York Giants: Please thrust yourself into the Jim Harbaugh sweepstakes! He’s there to be had, if you want him!

Attention Washington Redskins: How does leveraging the entire future of your franchise for RG3 look now? Is that the worst trade in the history of the NFL? It might be.

PATRIOTS over Dolphins

Miami won this game the first time around, all the way back in Week 1, which feels like an eternity ago. Since then, New England has transformed themselves into the prohibitive favorites in the AFC, and the Dolphins, while having some impressive wins, have also blown several close, winnable games. This is a must win for Miami. They really can’t afford to drop to 7-7 with amount of teams fighting for a playoff spot in the AFC. Unfortunately for them, I think their run essentially ends this week. The weather won’t be brutal in New England on Sunday (43 degrees), but I almost always have no faith in a warm weather team traveling North in December to play a game in the 40s or below. Plus, New England is just better. So there’s that too.

CHIEFS over Raiders

Oakland won this game the first time around, and helped send the Chiefs on this three game losing streak that they’re in the midst of right now. Here’s a good, safe rule that I'm creating right now: if you lose to the Raiders twice in a season, you don’t deserve to be in the playoffs. It’s really that simple. K.C. will figure it out this week right?

COLTS over Texans

J.J. Watt destroys all inferior life forms. Unfortunately for him, Andrew Luck happens to be on the other sideline. Oh yeah, and don’t forget to add in the fact that Houston secretly isn’t that good. Here are their seven wins: Redskins, Raiders, Bills, Titans (twice), Browns, Jaguars. Not overly impressive.

BROWNS over Bengals

I wrote on Monday that I wasn’t going to pick Cincy for the rest of the season, just on principle, because Carrot Top plays the quarterback position for them. Then, Cleveland announced this week that they’d be starting Johnny Manziel, followed by Cincinnati starting to suck me in a little bit with their roster (which is immensely talented) and their strangely impressive record……

NO! I can’t pick them! Andy Dalton and this team have burned me too many times! IT’S JOHNNY FOOTBALL TIME!

RAVENS over Jaguars

Please. It’s Jacksonville.

Packers over BILLS

I’ve heard a lot of momentum building late in the week for Buffalo. Why? I understand that the Bills are great in the trenches, but I get the hottest team in NFL, quarterbacked by the NFL MVP, with one of the best offensive lines in the league. Sure, the Packers’ defense isn’t great, and oftentimes falls somewhere between “average” and “revolving door”, but Buffalo doesn’t have the personnel on offense to make them pay for that. Kyle Orton? When has he ever shredded anything besides a piece of paper?

Buccaneers over PANTHERS

I can’t believe it. I think I just picked Tampa Bay for the first time this season. This is more a “I don’t trust Derek Anderson, now that Cam Newton is probably out for the season” than anything. Get well soon Cam.

TITANS over Jets

Or, in other words, the worst game of the weekend. If they played this one in my front yard, I probably wouldn’t stroll outside to watch it.

Broncos over CHARGERS

This is not a must win for the Bolts. That would be the next two games, assuming they lose this one (which probably won't happen, considering I'm picking against them). Their offensive line is so banged up/confused/dysfunctional right now, and they won’t get the advantage of cold weather and wind to knock down or alter Peyton Manning’s throws. San Diego won’t struggle as badly on offense as they did last week, but Denver should be able to get pass rushers through that patchwork offensive line enough times to bother Philip Rivers, and keep him from playing his best game, which is what the Chargers will need to beat the Broncos.

LIONS over Vikings

What a disappointing year for Cordarrelle Patterson. Fresh off an extremely impressive and eye popping rookie season, I expected big things from the Vikings receiver this season. Instead, it’s literally been the exact opposite. Patterson has a paltry 30 catches for 350 yards, and one touchdown. Incredibly enough, his longest catch of the season has only been 28 yards! How is that possible for a guy this talented and this gifted athletically? It’s been so bad that Patterson has been moved out of the starting lineup, and has played just four offensive snaps the last two weeks. Head coach Mike Zimmer has reiterated throughout the season that he wants to see more consistent practice habits out of him, and has said that Patterson’s biggest stumbling block has been, “Consistency. It’s being in the right place, doing the right things, running the right routes, blocking the right people, lining up in the right place, that’s it”. Whatever the reason is, I hope he’s able to figure it out. He was so much fun to watch last season, and the NFL has missed his explosive, game-breaking plays.

Regardless, Patterson or no Patterson, Minnesota won’t beat Detroit this weekend.

SEAHAWKS over 49ers

Amazingly enough, Seattle is actually a ten point favorite in this game. That seems way too high, even with the Niners’ and Colin Kaepernick’s recent struggles. I predicted on Monday that the Seahawks would win out, and it starts this week. Kaepernick looks lost under center, and appears to have as much confidence in himself as a nerdy, glasses-wearing freshman on the first day of high school. San Fran’s defense has been as great as ever though, and because of that, they’ll be able to hang around for most of the game. But I just don’t have any faith in that offense to put up enough points to seriously challenge Seattle. It wouldn’t shock me if the score was 19-3 again, just like it was on Thanksgiving night.

EAGLES over Cowboys

Dallas actually has time to rest their bodies in preparation for this game, unlike two weeks ago, when they literally had a little more than 96 hours between their Sunday Night Game against the Giants, and the game in Jerry World against Philadelphia on Thanksgiving. This time around though, they haven’t played in ten days, meaning they’ll be well rested, or as refreshed as they can be in Week 15 of an NFL season. Plus, if they do lose this game, they’re pretty much done in the division race, because they’d virtually be two games back in the division (Philly would have the tiebreaker) with two weeks left. This is essentially a must win. And that’s why I’m taking the Eagles. The Cowboys, at least the last 17 years or so, have never been a “step-up” franchise, one that plays their best in a big or must-win game. The Romo era, specifically, has been full of playoff and regular season disappointments. There was the fumbled snap against Seattle in Romo's first playoff game, the NFC Divisional Playoff loss to the Giants as the number 1 seed in 2007, which inspired the strangest moment of Terrell Owens' career (yes, even stranger than his workout in the driveway after the Eagles suspended him in 2005), and, most recently, the three straight losses on the final weekend of the season that eliminated the Cowboys from the playoffs. I’m betting on reputation, and history, and both those things tell me Dallas will lose on Sunday.

BEARS over Saints

Finally, the Monday Night game. Do I have to make a pick on this one?  I don't think I've whiffed on any two teams more than these ones this season. I’m going with the Bears solely because New Orleans is a dome team traveling outside in December to play in the elements (there’s a low of 39 degrees, and rain in the forecast). Plus, like Atlanta, it doesn’t matter if the Saints win on Monday, because all you have to do in the NFC South is win your division games and finish about 7-9. That will be good enough to make the playoffs in that embarrassing excuse of a division.

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So, like always, have a nice weekend, and enjoy football on Sunday. You deserve it.

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