Friday, December 5, 2014

Baylor Is Getting Screwed; Plus Conference Championship And Week 14 NFL Picks





The college football regular season comes to a close this Saturday, as there are seven conference championship games, plus the KansasState at Baylor game, which should be really important, but probably won’t be, because the playoff committee is stupid.

I’ll never, for as long as I live, understand the committee’s love for TCU, particularly at the expense of Baylor. The teams, after this weekend, will have virtually played the same schedule, only the Bears won the head-to-head match up between the teams. Remember that game? The one the Horned Frogs led by TWENTY-ONE in the 4th quarter? Then they started playing tight, stopped tackling, and allowed Baylor receivers to run free in the secondary. They blew the lead and lost the game. Again, it was a TWENTY ONE point lead! To me, that’s a bad loss. You’re supposed to win when you lead by three touchdowns at any point in the game, much less the 4thquarter. But they didn’t. They blew it. However, apparently the committee doesn’t care about who won the head-to-head match up. From the committee chair Jeff Long on Tuesday:

Again, that's what this committee, human committee does. It evaluates the teams on their play in the game… Again, I can't say it's one thing. It's a number of things we look at, and we believe TCU is better and deserving of that No. 3 rank over Baylor.”

What?

That makes no sense! They played, and Baylor won! And they have the same record! How is TCU ranked THREE spots ahead of them? What is going on? I’m not even a Baylor fan and I’m riled up about this. I can’t imagine how I’d feel if I was.

And don’t even get me started on how hypocritical the guys running the Big 12 are. All season, those buffoons have been running commercials, talking about how they would have “one true champion”, because every team plays every other team, unlike the rest of the Power 5 conferences. But now, the league office has announced that if both schools finish 11-1, they’ll actually have co-champions, and not one, like they stated in their stupid commercials all season. How gutless, spineless, and dumb is that?

The playoff committee, at least thus far, earns an “F” for their inaugural season. But it’s not too late! They can still fix this! Do the right thing!

Now, onto this weekend’s games. For reasons still unexplained, my Angry Old Man was insistent that I pick EVERY conference championship game, including Conference USA, the MAC and the Mountain West. I’m not sure why he wanted it that way, but when he insisted I do it earlier in the week, he looked at me like he looks at a plateful of Doritos before he devours them (meaning heavy breathing, with his nostrils flared, and a weird angry glare), so instead of incurring his wrath, I’ll just do it.

Without further ado…..

MAC Championship

Northern Illinois over Bowling Green

This is a rematch of last year’s championship game, which Bowling Green won. Northern Illinois is 10-2, and are playing in their 5thconsecutive MAC Title Game. Bowling Green backed into the championship game, as they finished the season with two straight losses. NIU has been much more impressive lately, as they haven’t lost since October 11th. Aren’t the Huskies just significantly better? I think so.

Conference USA Championship

Marshall over Louisiana Tech

The original thinking behind this pick was, “Marshall, because Derek Dooley coached at Tech, and I’m not sure they’ve been able to quite get rid of his stink yet”. But then I remembered that Marshall was 11-1, and hadn’t lost a game all year until last Saturday. They’ve been the best team in that conference all season, and will prove as much this weekend.

Mountain West Championship

#22 Boise State over Fresno State

How is Fresno State in this game? They finished the year 6-6! If the SEC West and the Pac 12 South are the Larry Bird and Magic Johnson of college football divisions, then the West Division (which Fresno is in) of the Mountain West is definitely Kwame Brown. Meanwhile, Boise State has had another really good season (they’re 10-2), this time under first year head coach Bryan Harsin. I’m not picking against them. They’ve burned me too many times when I thought I was smart and picked their opponents. Plus, Fresno State lost 6 times this year. So that makes it a whole lot easier.

SEC Championship

#1 Alabama over #16 Missouri

The Tide are the best team in the country. The only thing that concerns me about this pick is the fact that Alabama struggled last week to cover all of Auburn’s big, speedy wideouts, allowing Nick Marshall to have a career day. Missouri has the same type of athletes on the outside. Bud Sasser, Darius White, and Jimmie Hunt (their three leading receivers) are all 6 feet or taller, and are capable of making plays in the passing game. And honestly, I’m not even sure why I used the word “concerned”.I hate Alabama, and nothing would bring me more joy than seeing them lose this game to a clearly inferior Mizzou team, followed by Nick Saban pulling his hair plugs out. Unfortunately, I don’t think it’s likely. The Tigers don’t have a superstar player like Nick Marshall back there tossing the ball all over the yard for them; instead, they have Maty Mauk, who’s been vacillating between Alex “Game Manager” Smith and Jamarcus “Please Stop Hurting Us” Russell all year, with almost every in-between quarterback iteration in between (yes, even Rex “What Are You Even Thinking?” Grossman). Why would I have any faith in that guy, playing against one of the nation’s best defenses? I shouldn’t, and I won’t. Either he’s going to have to be great on Saturday, or their defense is going to have to find a way to completely slow down Amari Cooper and that offense. Good luck.

ACC Championship

#4 Florida State over #11 Georgia Tech

I badly wanted to pick the Yellow Jackets. I really did. And I can see plenty of scenarios in which they’d win. But they won’t. FSU always finds a stupid way to win these games against inferior opponents, and they’ll do it again tomorrow. Believe me, I’d love to see just about anybody else in the four team playoff besides the‘Noles. Anybody who has watched football all season couldn’t rationally or logically argue that they’re one of the four best teams. They’ve won all of their games, but so what? Wouldn’t Alabama, Oregon, TCU, Baylor, and a bunch of other teams be undefeated in the ACC this season, and look way more impressive doing it than FSU? Of course they would. Because they’re the defending champs, and haven’t lost in two years, I’m fine with keeping them in the playoff, but that doesn’t mean I have to ignore what I’ve seen all season. I’m not going to be a drone and a fool like Mike Greenberg, and declare that Florida State should be ranked number 1. That’s crazy.

For Tech to win, they’ll need two things to go in their favor:

  1. Score touchdowns early with long, physical drives. They can easily do this, because they run the ball more times than Verne Lundquist butchers calls during games. I love you Verne, and you’ll always be the voice of SEC Football for me, but it might be time for you and CBS to move on.
  2. Get another “Bad First Half Jameis” game from Winston. He’s done this multiple times this season, most recently last Saturday, when he threw three interceptions in the first 30 minutes.

If both these things happen, and Tech is able to jump out to an early lead, they might be able to kill the clock in the second half with that aforementioned devastating run game. And even that might not be enough. Jameis has been much better in the second half of games this season, and teams just haven’t been able to put them away. It’s weird how FSU can suck until they need to be great; and when they need it, they’ll suddenly morph into the Greatest Show on Turf mixed with the’85 Bears, and begin murdering the other team. I could easily see that happening again this week, and that’s why I’m picking the Seminoles. Then, in a month, when they get blasted in the semifinals by Alabama or someone else, we can finally be rid of college Jameis and slimy,” I’ve-got-to-cover-for-Winston” Jimbo Fisher forever.

Big 10 Championship

#13 Wisconsin over #5 Ohio State

If J.T. Barrett was playing on Saturday, I’d go with the Buckeyes and not think twice about it. But now, with Cardale Jones lining up under center for them, I’m nowhere near as confident. In fact, I’d argue that they’re mostly average around Barrett, only he was so great as the season progressed that he covered up a ton of holes for them. Plus, Wisconsin has one of the few really good defenses left in college football (they only give up an average of 260 yards a game). That doesn’t bode well for a guy making his first career start in an extremely big game. And good luck slowing down the Badgers’ Melvin Gordon with a rush defense that gives up 145.6 yards per game. I expect Gordon, who should win the Heisman, to have a huge day on the ground, and for Wisconsin to win by at least 10 points.

Pac 12 Championship

#2 Oregon over #7 Arizona

A lot has been made over the last week about the fact that Arizona has beaten Oregon two straight times, and that because of this, they might just be the better team. That’s silly. The Ducks are playing great right now, and they’ve been blasting and blowing through the 2ndbest conference in the country. They’ve won seven straight games by at least 12 points or more, and are getting Marcus Mariota’s best season of his career (Through the air: 3,470 yards, 36 TDs, 2 picks. On the ground: 636 yards, 11 TDs). Plus, if you remember back to that early October Arizona win, Oregon had a ton of injuries on the offensive line, which pretty much killed their chance to run the offense the way they wanted to run it. Those injuries are no longer a factor, and because of that, Oregon will win tonight.

#6 Baylor over #9Kansas State

This is the best Saturday football game. People have forgotten how good K-State is, because they’ve been eliminated from the playoff race since they got thrashed at TCU. No one has really talked about them since then. But this is still a good football team, and one that doesn’t beat themselves (they only have ten turnovers all year). They could easily win on Saturday. Then again, that Baylor offense has been unstoppable, and I’ve watched them torch a ton of teams this season (they absolutely dominated Oklahoma in Norman). The only thing that could trip the Bears up this week would be if Bryce Petty plays poorly because of the concussion he suffered in their last game against Texas Tech. This win, if Baylor can get it, is one that should’ve cemented them in the playoff, because Kansas State is a really good team, and this would be a great victory at this point in the season. But the committee has already shown their hand, and pretty much let us know that Baylor’s only shot at making the playoff is if a bunch of teams above them lose. What a load of crap.

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Now, onto the NFL (home team in CAPS)......

Cowboys over BEARS

This is the first week of December, a month that has been a bigger pain in the neck for Dallas than a noose. So I half-expected for them to go into Chicago yesterday, play terribly, and lose. Shockingly, and amazingly, they played really well, and left the Midwest victorious. Keep an eye on Dallas this month though. It wouldn’t surprise me if they got run over by December, again.

BENGALS over Steelers

I have no idea what to do with this Cincinnati team. They, after struggling mightily during the middle of the season, all of the sudden have turned back into that team we saw in September. They’ve won their last three games, which were, impressively enough, all on the road. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh really hurt themselves last week. That New Orleans loss was a stupid, and there’s no reason they should’ve got completely outplayed by a mediocre Saints team, one that has always struggled outside. I always feel foolish when I shrug my shoulders and pick a team quarterbacked by Andy Dalton, but Cincy is just playing better right now, and they SHOULD win. And when they inevitably lose on Sunday, I’ll frown, sigh, shake my head, and once again remind myself to never pick a team with Dalton at the helm again.

Rams over REDSKINS

St. Louis is the right quarterback away from being a contender. Where are the holes on this team, besides that position? They just shut out the Raiders (yeah, I know, it’s the Raiders, but it’s still an NFL team, probably), winning 52-0, with Shaun Hill starting at quarterback. What if they had someone above average guy like Ryan Tannehill playing that position for them? How good would they be then? Regardless, they won’t need anyone other than Hill to beat a horribly inept Redskins team this week.

Giants over TITANS

The G-Men can’t lose again can they? They’ve now lost seven games in a row after last week’s debacle in Jacksonville. I think Tom Coughlin is a really good head coach, but I also think it’s time for a change in leadership in New York. Including this season, the Giants have made the playoffs one time in the last six seasons. Here’s a potential candidate for their next head coach, a name that I haven’t heard connected with them just yet: Jim Harbaugh. Why not? They play in a big market, with a smart, stable organization, and a two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback in Eli Manning. Wouldn’t that be the best open job in the NFL this off-season? Why would Harbaugh and the Giants not be interested in each other? New York needs to make improvements on the offensive line, and on defense, but besides that, it’s not like this team is THAT far from contending again. Things can flip in the NFL in an instant. Why couldn’t it happen in the Big Apple, with a smart and dedicated guy like Harbaugh, and that front office?

SAINTS over Panthers

Carolina has quietly been one of this season’s biggest disappointments. After starting the year 3-2, they haven’t won a game since October 5th. I’m not going to pile on Cam Newton too much, like a lot of people have, because I don’t think he’s even close to being 100%, and he has the worst offensive weapons in the league. His best receiver is Kelvin Benjamin, a rookie who isn’t ready to be a franchise, number one wideout quite yet. New Orleans actually showed a pulse last week, the first time they’ve done that since their still-puzzling victory over Green Bay in Week 8. I think the Saints will ultimately win that division, even if they finish 7-9, and it will start this week with their victory at home against Carolina.

VIKINGS over Jets

Every other NFL locker room thanks you, the Jets, for being on their schedule this season. Not only do they love a guaranteed win, but they’re also overjoyed about seeing a team quarterbacked by Geno Smith/Mike Vick. The defense loves when they get to make plays and get stops without even trying.

DOLPHINS over Ravens

The Seahawk-like Adderall suspension for Ravens' defensive lineman Haloti Ngata is a huge blow for this Baltimore team. He was such a huge part of what they did on defense, and without him, they aren’t anywhere near as intimidating or difficult to deal with. Plus, Ryan Tannehill has secretly been really good this season, as he has completed over 70% of his passes in five straight games. The only quarterback over the last decade to have a longer streak than that is Peyton Manning, which is impressive company for the third year starter. Plus, if you just look at Miami’s losses, they’re really not that far from being 9-3 or 10-2, instead of 7-5. They were so close in that Green Bay game, before Aaron Rodgers led that huge, game-winning touchdown drive. Their game in Detroit could’ve gone either way, and they were a bad 4th quarter away from leaving Denver victorious. This is a really good team, and I expect them to play much better than Baltimore on Sunday.

Colts over BROWNS

Cleveland is the worst 7-5 team in the league, and Brian Hoyer has suddenly turned into a below-average NFL starter. In his last three games, he has one TD and six picks. In other words, he's doing his best Geno Smith impression. If Hoyer isn’t great (and I don’t think he will be) for the rest of the season, this will be his last year in Cleveland. His contract is up after this season, and the Browns drafted Johnny Manziel in the first round so they could play him, not so he could sit on the bench behind a 29 year old with 11 TDs and 10 picks in 2014. Indy has beat up on all the average-to-bad teams they’ve played this year, and I expect that to continue this week. And when Cleveland loses in two days, I think the run for them, at least this season, will be over. They’ll throw Manziel in there, and I think at times, he'll struggle greatly.

LIONS over Bucs

We haven’t seen Detroit since Thanksgiving, but they played their best offensive game since Week 1 that day, as they dismantled the Bears. Then again, how impressive is that really? Everybody has done that to Chicago this season. Regardless, even if the Lions’ offense struggles again, they won’t need them this week to beat the hapless Bucs.

Texans over JAGUARS

Congrats Jacksonville and Blake Bortles on your big win last week against the Giants. This week, prepare to meet and deal with J.J. Watt. He’ll destroy you.

BRONCOS over Bills

Denver seems to have discovered a physical running game (C.J. Anderson had 168 yards on 32 carries on Sunday Night), something they’ll need to win in the playoffs. Denver won’t need Manning to be great to win on Sunday, but keep an eye on how his ball looks on Sunday. He threw 10-12 absolute ducks againstKansas City, a disturbing trend for that team.

CARDINALS over Chiefs

I don’t have a great feel for this one, though many people would argue I don’t have a great feel for any game, because if I did, I wouldn’t consistently whiff on pick after pick after pick. Whoops. Anyway, both these teams are reeling off back-to-back losses, and haven’t looked good in two weeks. I just think Arizona has a better roster, and they have the ability to force turnovers, something Kansas City isn’t great at doing. If they could get a turnover or two that could set them up with a short field, they might be able to score a few points, something that’s been a challenge for the Drew Stanton-led offense. This will be a close, low scoring game, one that the Cards will eek out late.

Seahawks over EAGLES

Mark Sanchez has been fairly impressive this season, but he also hasn’t faced a defense like Seattle’s, one that flies around and is relentless for four quarters. The Legion of Boom has gotten their swagger back, and the pass rush is inching closer to being that unstoppable force they were last year. If Sanchez struggles early, I think this game could get ugly. Seattle is so limited offensively that I’m not sure they’re capable of beating someone 41-10 anymore, but they are definitely capable of physically and mentally overwhelming a team with a 19-3 win, like they have the last two games. I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw a similar type game this week, one that resembles their last two victories.

49ers over RAIDERS

The Harbaugh Bowl, because a Jim-to-Oakland trade has been rumored all week. Here’s my advice to Harbaugh: RUN IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF OAKLAND AS QUICKLY AS YOU CAN!!! YOU SHOULD LEAVE SKID MARKS FLEEING FROM THAT HELL HOLE!!! New York is a far superior franchise, and they’d be silly to not want you as their head coach. If given the opportunity, go there.

CHARGERS over Patriots

I know, I know, I probably have a blind spot for the Bolts (actually, there’s no “probably” about it, I definitely do). Though, to be fair, they do seem to be hitting their stride again, which I thought would eventually happen. And here’s the craziest stat of the week: Philip Rivers is 30-6 in his career as a starter in the month of December. Impressive, right? In other words, he’s like the Cowboys in December, except the exact opposite. Two concerns for San Diego: they’ll start their fifth different center of the season on Sunday (uh oh), and New England, instead of flying back to Massachusetts after Sunday’s loss in Green Bay, decided to fly out to Southern California, and spend the entire week preparing on the west coast, eliminating the potential jet lag/traveling-across-the-country advantage for the Chargers. Hmmm…. 30-6! THIS IS PHILIP RIVERS’ MONTH!!!!

PACKERS over Falcons

Finally, the Monday Night game. Why am I even thinking about this one? Atlanta’s terrible! Green Bay’s the best team in the league! Will this one even be close?

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So, like always, enjoy football this weekend. You deserve it.

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