Week 5 College Football Picks: The Playoff Plot Thickens

It’s Week 5 of the college football season already, and it brings us five matchups between ranked teams, all with potential playoff implications. Plus, we all get to watch Tennessee travel to Georgia and lose by five touchdowns! Fantastic! Being a Vol fan is so fun!

Let’s just start there…

#2 Georgia over Tennessee (at Georgia)

This could quite possibly be the worst Tennessee team of all time. Last year’s squad went 4-8 with what was probably 7-5 or 8-4 talent, but the 2018 Vols look like they’re a legitimate 3-9 football team. They can’t block or tackle and there’s never a threat from anyone to make a big play. I’ve never bet on the line of a football game in my entire life, but Georgia -31.5 seems like a near lock. The Bulldogs won 41-0 last year in Knoxville against what was a better, more talented Tennessee team. Why isn’t it 50-0 tomorrow? What has Tennessee shown that makes you think they won’t get blown off the field?

Here’s a fun, wildly unpopular question: if Tennessee had dealt with the scrutiny from the fanbase and hired Greg Schiano, or just said, “screw you guys, we’re keeping Butch Jones”, do they get blasted 47-21 last week? I’m not throwing the towel in on the Pruitt era yet, but Butch never got beaten that badly by Florida, particularly not a mediocre Gator team like that one. Sure, he’d lose on a Hail Mary at the end of the game, or give up a 61 yard TD on fourth and long, or lose 10-9, or start Nathan Peterman in the first half, but at least they’d have the athletes and the players to hang around before they inevitably broke my heart.

Texas A&M over Arkansas (in Arlington)

Arkansas is probably the only SEC team that should feel worse about the state of their program than Tennessee. First year coach Chad Morris has lost his last three games to Colorado State, North Texas, and Auburn by a combined score of 112-47. Ugh. A&M has shown life every week, and even though they got their doors blown off by 22 last week against Alabama, they still did some things to make the Tide work. This is a good football team that could very easily win 8 or 9 games, whereas Arkansas is on the fast track to a 1-11 season and another coaching search sometime in 2020.

#12 West Virginia over #25 Texas Tech

After getting embarrassed in the opening weekend by Ole Miss, the Red Raiders have quietly won their last three games against Lamar, Houston, and Oklahoma State by a combined score of 181-66. Their defense was particularly impressive last week; giving up only 17 points to Oklahoma State on the road when you both play in a pillow fight conference is shocking. Normally those games are all 47-45 or something.

I think the magic runs out for Kliff Kingsbury and Tech this weekend though. West Virginia has potentially the best quarterback in the country in Will Grier, and for a Big 12 team, a very good defense (they’ve only allowed 37 points in three games). The only thing Tech will be better at than WVU this weekend is the hairline of their head coaches.

#14 Michigan over Northwestern (at Northwestern)

I’m buying Michigan stock again after all you idiots jumped off the bandwagon when they got physically manhandled by Notre Dame in the opening weekend of the season. Wait a second, you’re saying I jumped off too? How dare you call me out for being both a liar and an idiot!

The Wolverines should be able to take care of Northwestern without much trouble, but like I’ve talked about before, their schedule is probably the most brutal in the country this season. They host Maryland next weekend (total wildcard), followed by a home game against Wisconsin, a game at Michigan State, and another home game against Penn State on November 3^rd. Sheesh. Oh yeah, and they’ll also end the season at Ohio State. 8-4 or 9-3 is completely in play.

#23 Mississippi State over Florida (at Mississippi State)

Dan Mullen makes his return to Starkville with a definitively worse quarterback and an arguably worse roster. Seriously, the difference between Nick Fitzgerald and Feleipe Franks is about as big as the difference between Jessica Alba and Rosie O’Donnell. And despite what they did to Tennessee last week, this really is a rather unspectacular Florida team that doesn’t do much of anything well, and I’d still be shocked if they won more than seven games this year. I think Mullen’s Gators will be the better program going forward, but Mississippi State should have the better of them this weekend.

#11 Washington over #20 BYU (at Washington)

The best thing BYU has going for them is that their  head football coach Kalani Sitake looks like a guy that delivers sodas to gas stations. Like I’m 100% sure that I've seen him get out of an 18 wheeler full of Pepsi before.

The Huskies really should be undefeated right now, and would be if they didn’t screw up back to back possessions in the red zone against Auburn all the way back in Week 1. This is, in my view, a much better team and I think they’ll win by at least 14 points.

#19 Oregon over #24 Cal (at Cal)

The Ducks are going to remember blowing last week’s Stanford game for years because it may end up costing them a chance to make the playoff. The schedule broke nicely for them this season; they got both Stanford and Washington at home, with the Huskies coming to Autzen Stadium off an Oregon bye. Plus, the Pac 12 South is really atrocious, and whoever they would've faced in a potential conference championship game very well may be 8-4 or 7-5. This could’ve been their year to run through the league undefeated and make the playoff again, and with a QB as talented as Justin Herbert, why couldn’t they have? They still could I suppose, but the margin for error is completely gone.

As for their game this weekend, I’ll take them on the road against Cal to win by double digits. Oregon wowed me with their speed and playmakers last Saturday and I think they might be one of the ten best teams I’ve seen this season.

#8 Notre Dame over #7 Stanford (at Notre Dame)

The Cardinal might be the better team, but I like the Irish this weekend in what should be a physical, bruising game for three and half hours. Stanford is facing its second consecutive road game after last week’s emotional roller coaster comeback against Oregon, and now they have to fly halfway across the country for a game out of their region, against a physical Irish team with a new and improved offense led by QB Ian Book. I think the Cardinal will come out flat, rally late, but ultimately come up short and lose 24-21.

If the Irish can win this game, then a 12-0 season that ends with a playoff berth isn’t that improbable, almost likely. Here’s their final seven games:

At Virginia Tech. The Hokies just lost to Old Dominion and will be without their starting QB Josh Jackson more than likely for the rest of the year. This game looked scarier a week ago than it is now.

Pittsburgh. The Panthers are 2-2, got blown out 51-6 by Penn State, and lost to North Carolina last weekend, one of the worst Power Five Teams in the country.

Navy in San Diego. The Midshipmen are also 2-2 and haven’t played anyone with close to as much talent as the Irish.

At Northwestern. The Wildcats lost to Akron two weeks ago.

Florida State. The Seminoles are coached by Willie Taggart. That is my entire argument.

Syracuse. I think the Orange are half decent but this game will be in South Bend and the Irish will assuredly be favored.

At USC. The Trojan offense sucks, and depending on how the rest of the year turns out, they could be led by an interim head coach by that point.

Notre Dame will be favored in all of those games, and they lucked out by getting both Michigan and Stanford, their two toughest opponents, at home this season. They’ll never have a better opportunity to go undefeated and make the playoff than they do now.  

#4 Ohio State over #9 Penn State (at Penn State)

Penn State QB Trace McSorley has never lost a home game as a starter, but I expect that to change this weekend. The Buckeyes, even without defensive end Nick Bosa, have arguably the best roster in the entire country, and the Nittany Lion defense has shown themselves to be vulnerable at times this season. Dwayne Haskins might throw for 400 yards against them tomorrow. I just don’t see a path to victory for PSU against such overwhelming talent unless the crowd noise is able to completely flip the game, which could happen if Penn State catches a few breaks early or causes some Ohio State turnovers. But absent of that, I think the Buckeyes win going away.