I know you all clicked on this hoping to read about the upcoming NFL season, but before I go any further
with this, I just want to put this out there; I’m going to spend each Sunday
this fall and winter sitting on a couch somewhere watching the game of football. I absolutely hate the protests because I think they accomplish nothing
and are based on a lie. I wish everyone would stand for the anthem because this
is the best country in the history of the world no matter your race, gender,
religion, or sexual orientation.
However, I also love football more than I hate people
kneeling. I just can’t get enough of the sport. It, along with college
football, is the best athletics show ever invented.
The protests have been
bad for the NFL’s business. This is inarguable. But they haven’t quelled my
fandom. Not yet.
When you guys click on
something that I’ve written, you have a certain expectation about what you're about to be reading, which is my sports opinions. If you clicked on something I wrote and it was
supposed to be a football column, but instead, it was all about Dungeons and
Dragons, you’d be like, “what the hell is this? I’m not reading this crap”. And
you'd exit out of it. That’s what’s happened to the NFL since Kaepernick kneeled. We
tuned in expecting a football game and got politics thrown in our face instead.
“What the hell is this? I’m not watching this crap.”
So I’m going to stay on
brand. I love sports, games, and the athletes. You guys read me for my sports
takes, and that’s what I like writing about the most. This is going to be a
fantastic NFL season and I’ve got a million different opinions about it.
So here’s how I’m going
to break it down: Power rankings, from 32-1, with the teams grouped together in
tiers. The name of the tier will capture the overall feel of each team in the
group.
Without further ado…
We
Have No Shot
32. Buffalo Bills
31. Miami Dolphins
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Our definitive bottom
three all have a chance to be really awful at the quarterback position. Buffalo
is starting Nathan Peterman there. Nathan
Bleeping Peterman, who is most famous for his five interceptions in the
first half of his first career start in last year’s game against the Chargers.
He also tortured me in the first half of the 2013 Tennessee-Florida game, when
he quarterbacked the Vols to the worst half at that position in the history of
the program. When he inevitably gets benched for poor play at some point during
the season, he’ll be replaced by first round pick Josh Allen, who has a big arm
and… that’s really it. In 11 games for Wyoming last year, Allen threw for only
1812 passing yards and completed less than 57% of his throws. Why does anyone
think this is going to work?
Miami got rid of their
best players on each side of the ball (Jarvis Landry, Ndamukong Suh) and at
quarterback, they’ll replace Jay Cutler with the return of… Ryan Tannehill.
Damn, the rest of the league is TERRIFIED.
Tampa will be without
Jameis Winston for the first three games after he got suspended for an incident with an Uber driver. Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the
job while he’s gone. Again, not scary. I think it might be time for the Bucs to
move on from the Jameis experiment. He hasn’t gotten better since his rookie
season and he’s a handful on and off the field. What’s the upside? I’d flip him
for whatever I could get because he’s proven he’s not mature enough to make it
in the league and come back to bite you.
Damn,
We Just Got Grudened!
29. Oakland Raiders
What’s been the best
thing about the Jon Gruden era so far? I
would’ve said him showing the team game film from the 1970s, but that got
replaced on Saturday when they decided to trade one of the best pass rushers in
the league, Kahlil Mack, to the Bears, because he was holding out for a new
contract and they didn't want to pay him. Gruden admitted at the start of training camp that he hadn’t even
been in communication with Mack at all since he got the job, and after the
trade, talked about how the media was just trying to divide the team. What? Hey
Jon, when you have one of the five best defensive players in football at the absolute peak of his powers, you don’t trade him under any circumstances. I was skeptical about
Gruden working out as a head coach after a decade long absence, but I thought
his shortcomings would've come in scheme or work ethic, not personality. He’s been
on the job less than a year and he might’ve lost the team already. Good thing
Mark Davis gave him a ten year contract. Whoops!
New
Veteran QBs, Same Result
28. Arizona Cardinals
27. Cleveland Browns
26. Washington Redskins
25. Denver Broncos
All four of these teams
replaced their quarterbacks from last year with veterans who have lasted into
their late 20s or early 30s despite their physical limitations. Arizona landed
Sam Bradford, who has been so banged up that he's played in all 16 games only twice in his nine season career. Tyrod Taylor, who is shorter than the average QB
at 6’1, led the Bills to their first playoff appearance since 1999. Buffalo
repaid him by shipping him to Cleveland. Washington traded for Alex Smith, who
led the Chiefs to four playoff appearances in five years despite his limited
arm talent. Denver signed Case Keenum this off-season after the Vikings agreed
to a deal with former Redskin QB Kirk Cousins. Keenum, who is also just 6’1,
had a career year last season and completed the greatest pass in Viking
history, a 61 yard heave to Stefon Diggs on the final play of the game that
sent Minnesota to the NFC Championship Game… where they got their doors blown
off 38-7 by the Eagles. But still! Great moment!
Here’s the truth; all of
these guys are serviceable and capable of taking a team with a good roster and an above average head coach to the playoffs. The problem is that none of these
squads match that description. I like Arizona’s skill guys (Larry Fitzgerald,
David Johnson), but their offensive line is one of the worst in the league.
Washington had a million injuries last season, and they’re so banged up this
year that they decided to roll the dice on Adrian Peterson (gulp) who is so washed
up that he’s already had three teams (Minnesota, New Orleans, Arizona) give up
on him. Cleveland has some talent on defense, but that coaching staff is in
complete disarray and Hue Jackson has
won 1 game in two years. Plus, if things start to go sour, the Browns might
turn the team over to first overall pick Baker Mayfield, who I don’t think is
ready to play right now. If I had to bet on a team out of this group to make a
run at the playoffs, it’d be Denver, solely because the Von Miller-Bradley
Chubb pass rush combination has a chance to be special, a la Miller and
Demarcus Ware on the 2015 Broncos. Keenum is the problem for me. He’s the only
QB of this group who hasn’t been a capable starter for more than one season. He
had a career year in 2017 with a great head coach, Mike Zimmer, one of the
best offensive minds in the league, his OC Pat Shurmur, and a loaded roster
that’s more talented and deeper than the one he has in Denver. His head coach
in Denver is Vance Joseph, who was so bad last season in his first year that
there was a legitimate argument for him being one and done. Uh oh. It won’t
matter how much havoc Miller and Chubb wreak if Keenum regresses to his mean
and becomes a back up-level QB again.
Savior
Sam?
24. New York Jets
In March, the Jets traded
three second rounders to Colts to move up three spots in the draft
to number 3 (lots of threes). They got killed for that transaction the time, with everyone
laughing and saying "Well this is why the Jets are the Jets". However, thanks to Cleveland’s love for Baker Mayfield and the Giants’
inability to move on from the Eli Manning era, the Jets lucked into the best
quarterback in the draft, Sam Darnold. He has a chance to be the best person they’ve had under center since Joe Namath. Darnold, despite his penchant for occasionally throwing the ball up for grabs, was the only quarterback I
would’ve taken in this year’s draft if I was running a team. He's a mature kid with a good enough arm; if the only knock on him is that he takes too many chances, I can live with that for now.
If I had to pick a
team out of the AFC East to dethrone the Patriots this season, I’d take the
Jets, solely because Darnold might already be the second best QB in the
division and I like some of their defensive personnel. The schedule isn’t
impossible either; their first three games are at Detroit, home for the
Dolphins, and at the Browns. They could very easily be 3-0 before the schedule
toughens up heading into the month of October.
The argument against them is that their offensive line is pretty awful, and
they don’t have a skill person I’d start on my fantasy team with the exception
of Robby Anderson, who is a loose cannon with off the field issues. Frankly, I’m
not sure he’ll be able to stay eligible for all 16 games, and they really have no one scary without him. Plus, let's be honest; The Pats
would really have to fall off for the Jets to challenge them because I don’t
see any way this team is better than 8-8. 6-10 feels more realistic.
We’re
Staler Than Ten Week Old Bread
23. Detroit Lions
22. Baltimore Ravens
There’s just no momentum
for either of these teams, both of who are bringing back the same quarterbacks,
Matt Stafford and Joe Flacco, who have peaked as players and will probably
never win another playoff game. Stafford is better than Flacco, but I ranked
the Ravens higher because they have a much better roster. Baltimore’s Lamar
Jackson has been the least impressive rookie QB of the five drafted in the
first round, and as poor as Flacco has been the last few years, I’d stick with
him 100 times out of 100 if all I’m going to get from Lamar is what I’ve seen
in the preseason.
Detroit hired former
Patriots’ defensive coordinator Matt Patricia to be their head coach this
off-season. It’s a Bill Belichick assistant, he’ll be a roaring success, right?
Wrong. Remind me, what's the track record of Belichick assistants when they became a
head coaches? Not good! I'll show you!
- Josh McDaniels got off to a 6-0 start in Denver in 2009 before everything torpedoed, leading to him getting fired midway through the 2010 season.
- How about Eric Mangini, the “Mangenius” who beat Belichick one time in a regular season game with the Jets? His 33-48 record tells the real story.
- Romeo Crennell is an immortal 28-55 with the Browns and Chiefs
- Charlie Weis went a combined 41-49 in college with Notre Dame and Kansas.
- Jim Schwartz made the playoffs once, with the Lions in 2011, but he finished up his tenure there at just 29-52.
- Bill O’Brien has probably been the most successful out of everyone, and he’s just 32-35 with Texans, with one playoff win in three tries.
Zeke
Elliott Is Going To Have Like 400 Touches This Season
21. Dallas Cowboys
I might have the Cowboys
ranked too high here because there’s a good chance they could be really awful. The
skill position guys outside of Ezekiel Elliot might be the worst in the league
(Allen Hurns and Cole Beasley are the go to guys? Sheesh), and they’ve already
had multiple injuries on their offensive line, which is the definitive strength of the
team. I’m a Dak Prescott defender, but he was given more responsibility over
the offense last season and played significantly worse. Dak was effective in 2016 when he
could always count on being able to turn around and hand the ball to Elliott. Due to Zeke’s suspension, he didn't always have that luxury, and in turn, his interceptions rose from 4 to 13 while his yards dipped from 3,667 to
3,324 and his completion percentage fell from 67.8% to 62.9%. Sure, he’s got
Zeke back for all 16 games this season, assuming there’s no injuries, but the team around
Dak was better two years ago than it is now. Plus, the schedule is brutal;
Dallas has road games this season at Carolina, Seattle, Houston, Philly,
Atlanta, Indianapolis, the Giants, and Washington. Plus, they host New Orleans,
Philly, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Detroit, the Giants, and Redskins. The only
game where they definitely have the better roster is all the way in Week 16
when they host the Buccaneers. Listen, I’m not saying they’re going 1-15, but
why isn’t 5-11 or 6-10 a realistic outcome? I think Zeke touches the ball a ton
this year and runs into eight and nine man fronts every week.
We’re
Betting It All On Our QB From The 2012 Draft
20. Seattle Seahawks
19. Indianapolis Colts
I placed the Colts a slot
higher because the NFC is much tougher than the AFC. Both Indy and Seattle have
below average rosters built around once in a generation QBs. Russell Wilson has
been able to avoid major injury despite all the running around and play
extending that he does, while Andrew Luck missed all of 2017 due to the
pounding he’s taken behind what has been the league’s worst offensive line
since he entered the league. I’m betting on Luck getting up to speed (I drafted
him in both my fantasy leagues), but he’s still saddled by an abominable
roster. The same goes for Wilson, who would be the runaway MVP if he could lead
an overmatched Seattle team to the playoffs in a NFC that is so loaded that a team will probably have to go 11-5 to snag the last Wild Card spot. The Seahawk offensive line
is atrocious, and I doubt the Chris Carson/Rashaad Penny running
back combo will be able to find any breathing room behind it. The same goes for
Wilson, who got annihilated a few times back there last season. I don’t expect
either of these teams to make the playoffs, but if I had to pick one of them to
do so, I’d go with the Colts because they play in the inferior AFC and Luck, at
his peak, is better than Wilson.
We
Want To Be Contenders But I’m Not Sure We Have The Right QB
18. New York Giants
17. Chicago Bears
The Giants had an
opportunity to move off Eli Manning by drafting a quarterback with the second
overall pick in this year’s draft. Instead, they took RB Saquon Barkley, signed
Odell Beckham Jr. to a massive five year extension, and brought back Eli for another go. HELL
YEAH!!! I DON’T CARE IF ELI MOVES WORSE THAN AN OLD GRANDPA WITH SHINGLES ON
THE BOTTOM OF HIS FEET, HE’S NEVER GOING AWAY!!!!! BRING IT BACK, LET’S KEEP
THE ELI EXPRESS ROLLING BABY!!!! Listen, Eli’s had a great career, but it’s
over. In 2017 he had his lowest completion percentage and number of TD passes
since 2013, and his 3,468 passing yards last season were the fewest he’s had
since 2008. Will new head coach and offensive guru Pat Shurmur help? Sure, but
even if the Giants maximize Eli this season and unleash holy hell with Barkley
and Beckham, I still have no faith in Eli going anywhere and winning a playoff
game, something he hasn’t done since 2011.
The same goes for
Chicago’s Mitch Trubisky, who looked totally incapable of ever playing QB at a
high level during his 12 game sample size last season. He completed just under
60% of his passes, threw as many interceptions as touchdowns, and was never
trusted to throw the ball downfield, as his 6.6 yards per attempt average would
suggest. Sure, new head coach Matt Nagy, and offensive guy, should be a much
bigger help for his development than what he got last year from John Fox, but
if he’s just not good there’s only so much any coach can do.
The argument for Chicago
being really good is this: they fleeced the Raiders for Kahlil Mack, adding him
to what has a chance to be a really great defense. They drafted linebacker
Roquan Smith from Georgia, and will bring back cornerback Kyle Fuller,
defensive lineman Akiem Hicks, linebacker Danny Trevathan, and safety Eddie
Jackson to a defense that ranked 10th in yards allowed and 9th
in points last season. Plus, the schedule is really easy; Chicago gets Arizona, Tampa, Miami, the Jets, Bills,
and Detroit twice. That could be seven wins right there. I’d be able to talk
myself into them as a playoff team is I was a believer in Trubisky.
(Quick Tangent: I still
have no idea why the Giants drafted Saquon Barkley instead of a quarterback
like Sam Darnold who was sitting right there! You could’ve had your QB for the
next decade plus! Sure, I think Barkley will be really good, a little like
Alvin Kamara, but you can easily find competent or great backs all throughout
the draft. Case and point, Kamara last season, who was a third rounder. A
franchise QB is so much more difficult to find, but when one falls into your
lap, you don’t try and outthink the room, you just take him. This is going to
be particularly bad for the Giants when Darnold starts tearing it up in the
same city and they’re trotting out a 47 year old Eli Manning ten years from
now. HELL YEAH, THE ELI EXPRESS NEVER COMES INTO THE STATION!!!)
Handsome
Jimmy
16. San Francisco 49ers
It’s been an wild last
couple of months for Jimmy Garoppolo since he got traded to the Niners. He was
at the center of a Brady-Belichick-Robert Kraft drama in New England, he led
San Fran to five straight wins to end last season, he got paid a zillion
dollars by the 49er front office, and he made some… interesting dating choices. The Niners are betting it all on Jimmy
G, and with the offensive wizard Kyle Shanahan as his head coach, I think it
will end up working… eventually. San Fran still feels a year and another class
of draft picks away from competing for a playoff spot. They lost thier starting running back Jerrick McKinnon to a torn ACL, and they have a brutal first
month with games against the Vikings, Chiefs, and Chargers. There's also the consecutive weeks in October against the Packers and Rams. That’s potentially five
losses by October 21, which would basically eliminate them from playoff
contention because I think 11-5 will be the minimum record for a wild
card in the NFC with how strong the conference is.
Talented
Rosters, QB Questions
15. Tennessee Titans
14. Jacksonville Jaguars
13. Cincinnati Bengals
The Titans made the
playoffs last year AND WON A PLAYOFF GAME despite the fact that Marcus Mariota
finished 2017 with only 13 TD passes and 15 interceptions. I like the Tennessee
roster, but I don’t trust first year coach Mike Vrabel (another Belichick
assistant). Plus, are we sure Mariota is good? In three seasons, he’s never had
a 3,500 yard passing season, and that 13 TD-15 INT line sounds like a career
year from Jamarcus Russell. Derrick Henry’s only skill as a back is running downhill
as hard as he can (which is valuable), but other than that he’s not bringing
much to the table. The Titan corners were awful last season, and they attempted
to solve that problem by signing former Patriot Malcolm Butler to a $61 million
deal. I’ve always thought Butler was overrated; take out his spectacular, Super
Bowl winning interception at the goal line against the Seahawks, and he’s
basically nothing more than an average corner. But that image has blurred his
reputation in our minds and made us think he’s better than he actually is. I
wouldn’t be counting on him to be the savior for the worst part of this team.
Jacksonville snuck into
the AFC Championship Game last season, and had a ten point lead on Brady and
the Pats in Foxborough in the 4th quarter, before there team’s
collective sphincter got tight and the offensive play calling got ultra
conservative. I think this happened, in part, because they didn’t really trust
what they had at quarterback with Blake Bortles. Bortles is probably, if we’re
being generous, the 20th best QB in the league? The Jacksonville schedule also gets
significantly tougher this season; New England, Pittsburgh, Philly, Kansas
City, Houston twice with Deshaun Watson, and Indianapolis twice with Andrew
Luck. The Jags were also weirdly lucky with injuries last season; Linebacker
Telvin Smith missed a few games with a concussion and that was really it. In a sport
where grown men collide with each other at high speeds for sixteen three hour
periods, I can’t see them surviving another season unscathed. This is still a
talented team, but the combination of Bortles and tougher schedule with the likelihood of injuries makes me think they’ll miss the playoffs.
I think the Bengals will
be the surprise team in the NFL this season and make the playoffs… where
they’ll get bounced in the Wild Card Round. But still. Sure, I can’t believe
Marvin Lewis still has a head coaching job after 15 years and no playoff wins,
but the roster is going to be so good that I don’t think it’ll matter how
average Lewis is. The front seven has a chance to maul some teams, particularly when
they get Vontaze Burfict back from another suspension, and their skill position
guys are as good as they’ve been since 2015. A.J. Green is still a top 10
receiver, second year wideout John Ross is fully healthy and made the move of
the preseason, and Joe Mixon is super talented and now has complete control of
the backfield as the primary ball carrier.
The first half of the schedule is
tough, but their last seven games are totally manageable: at Baltimore, home
for Cleveland, home for Denver, at the Chargers, home for the Raiders, at the
Browns, and at Pittsburgh in Week 17, who may not have anything play for. Do I
have concerns about Andy Dalton? Of course. Then again, I trust him way more
than I do the other two QBs in this tier, considering he’s more
accomplished than both of them and did lead Cincy to playoff
appearances in each of his first four seasons. He’s shown that as long as the roster is
good, he's capable of quarterbacking a team to the playoffs. To be fair though, he’s also
the reason I’d never pick them to go further than that.
After
Everything, How Can You Ever Trust These Guys In A Big Spot?
12. Carolina Panthers
11. Los Angeles Chargers
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
Carolina will be without
linebacker Thomas Davis for the first four games of the season due to a PED
suspension, and they put offensive lineman Matt Kalil on IR, meaning they'll be without
him for at least the first 8 weeks of the season. The Panthers feel like the 7th best
team in the NFC, and I’m leaving them out of the playoffs because I just don’t trust Cam Newton
week to week. He’s got 141 turnovers in 109 career games, and his accuracy will just evaporate at random. He’s also never had back to back winning seasons
in his career. All of this makes me want to stay away from them.
The Chargers are the
ultimate “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory” team. They’ve been
ridiculously talented every year since their last playoff appearance in 2013, and yet, have found a way to eliminate themselves each season with back-breaking
turnovers, missed field goals, and questionable play calls. Joey Bosa and
Melvin Ingram are a top five pass rush combo, Melvin Gordon is the most
underrated back in the league, and Phil Rivers is good for 4,000+ passing yards
and 25 TDs every year. There’s no reason this team shouldn’t make the playoffs
and compete for the AFC West title this season. Which means they’ll find a way
to screw up the first four weeks of the season and put themselves in a giant
hole before the month of October.
Which brings us to the
Steelers. I hate the vibe with this team, from Ben Roethlisberger talking about
retirement, to Mike Tomlin’s growing-staler-by-the-week message and horrid in game decision-making,
to the Le’Veon Bell’s holdout that is now going to last into the season. The
Bell holdout would concern me the least if I were a Steeler fan; James Connor
is a more than serviceable backup, and Bell probably would show up out of shape
again, just like he did last year. What I’d be worried about is Roethlisberger; he's in his late 30s, he seems like he might have one foot out
the door, and he's taken a zillion hits. If he slips at all this season, they're screwed because they
have nothing proven behind him. Josh Dobbs? Please. I watched him at Tennessee for
three years and he regressed every season, particularly as a passer. Rookie
Mason Rudolph? He couldn’t even beat out Dobbs for the back up job.
The fact that this team,
as talented as they’ve been, hasn’t even made the Super Bowl the last four
years is a travesty. They’re a paltry 3-10 against the Patriots since they lost
to them in the ’01 AFC Championship Game. Are we sure Tom Brady didn’t peg the
Steelers early in his career as his biggest challenger, and then make a blood
sacrifice to Alex Guerrero with the promise that he’d be able to beat them every time? Or
is Mike Tomlin just a mediocre coach who relies overwhelmingly on emotion week to
week? I don’t think this was always the case, but Tomlin has become awful in game. Some of those decisions in the divisional playoff game against
Jacksonville last year were mind-boggling. The Steelers are so talented, and on
paper, should win the division, but they also feel like a “Year From Hell” team
in the making.
Our
Fragile QBs Better Stay Healthy Or We’re Screwed
9. Houston Texans
8. Green Bay Packers
Both Aaron Rodgers and
Deshaun Watson are extremely talented athletic quarterbacks who have powerful arms and the ability to put the ball wherever they want. They also hold onto
the football too long, never give up on a play, and have similar, smaller builds.
With that in mind, it’s no wonder Rodgers has broken both his collarbones and
Watson has torn both of his ACLs.
I think Green Bay’s team
is pretty talented, particularly with the addition of defensive lineman
Muhammad Wilkerson and tight end Jimmy Graham, but everything, as usual, rests
on Rodgers shoulders. If he’s great and stays healthy, the Pack have an outside
shot at making the Super Bowl. But if he gets slammed wrong again, then its
DeShone Kizer (uh oh) and Green Bay is a .500 team AT BEST that won’t sniff the
playoffs.
The Texans were one of
the most fun teams in the league last year when Watson was rolling before he blew his knee out in practice. They added Tyrann Mathieu on defense, and both JJ Watt and Whitney
Mercilus will be back from injury. I still don’t trust head coach Bill O’Brien
(Belichick assistant), but not even he should keep this team from winning the
division, as talented as they are, assuming they can stay healthy. Week 1 at
New England should be an awesome game.
(Quick tangent: Rodgers
turns 35 in December and just signed the largest contract in league history, a
deal that will virtually keep him in Green Bay for the rest of his career. If
there was ever a year for the Pack to win Aaron’s second title, this would have
to be it, right? He’s going to be swallowing up an even larger portion of the
cap after this season, which is going to make it even more difficult to bring
quality free agents into Green Bay, a place that already has trouble
drawing them now. Why not push all in like the Bears did and go after Kahlil
Mack? You guys couldn’t have dealt two first rounders for one of the five best
defensive players in the league? Why not? A healthy Rodgers gets you in the
playoffs every year; add a disruptive force like Mack to that defense and we
could be talking about the Super Bowl favorite. I just don’t understand
professional sports sometimes… when a top 10 guy in your sport is on the
market, and you have a need at that position, and you’re a contender, WHY DON’T
YOU TRY TO TRADE FOR HIM? Rodgers isn’t getting any younger; you lucked into
going from Brett Favre right to him, and you’ve wasted a few years of his
career already by going cheap. God knows how long it’ll take you to find a
franchise QB once he retires. Miami hasn’t had one since Dan Marino! Buffalo
since Jim Kelly! Cleveland since Otto Graham! When you have a star like
Rodgers, just go for it!)
Your
AFC Championship Game….
7. New England Patriots
6. Kansas City Chiefs
I’m a believer in the
Patrick Mahomes era. But I’m even a bigger believer in the Kansas City roster,
which is one of the best in the league and will be made better by the Eric
Berry’s return from an Achilles injury. They got rid of cornerback Marcus
Peters in the off-season, but that feels like an addition by subtraction;
Peters was a legit crazy person and it had to be grinding to be around him week
after week. Andy Reid gets the most out of his quarterbacks (good for Mahomes),
and they’ve got weapons all over the field (Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Kareem
Hunt). Mahomes has a much bigger arm than Alex Smith and I could see like five
or six long touchdown passes to a streaking Tyreek Hill this season. Their
first seven games could be challenging (at LA Chargers, at Pittsburgh, home for
the Niners, at Denver, home for Jacksonville, at New England, home for
Cincinnati), but the second half includes a home game against Denver, two Raider
games, Cleveland, and Arizona. If Mahomes is really good (and I think he will
be), they’ll have the best head coach-roster-QB combination in the AFC.
I have the Pats ranked
this high even though I don’t think they’re good enough to make the Super Bowl
because I’ll believe in a New England regression when the season ends and they’re
8-8 and miss the playoffs. Sure, their receivers couldn’t start for most FCS
teams, and Brady is 41, and he and Belichick and Robert Kraft are feuding, and
Rob Gronkowski probably won’t last the whole season, and the offensive line
sucks. Yadda yadda yadda. We’ve heard it all before. New England wins the AFC
East again and gets a first round bye.
I have the Chiefs in the Super
Bowl because they have the personnel and can
play the aggressive style that Jacksonville should’ve employed last season to beat
the Pats. Whether or not Andy Reid will remains to be seen. My only hesitation
with this pick is the fact that Reid has screwed up about a million different
playoff games in both Philadelphia and Kansas City by abandoning his regular
season style in favor of a conservative, slowed down approach. Will he trust
Mahomes more than Alex Smith? I have no idea. Andy’s been a great coach for a
long time in this league. He’ll figure out the playoffs, eventually, right?
The
Top Of The NFC Is Going To Be A Bloodbath
5. Los Angeles Rams
4. Minnesota Vikings
3. New Orleans Saints
2. Philadelphia Eagles
LA went all-in on this
season and added a bunch of difficult personalities, particularly on the
defensive side of the ball. The Ndamukong Suh-Aaron Donald defensive tackle
combination is the best in football, and Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters at corner
havr a chance to be really good, even if both those guys are absolutely insane.
Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks got paid a bunch of money, and Jared Goff should
benefit even more from another year with head coach Sean McVay, who transformed
him from a scared rookie in ’16 to a calm and poised starter in ’17. On paper,
you could make the argument that this is the Super Bowl favorite, but I ranked
them fifth because I think there’s a chance they added TOO MANY personalities.
They almost remind me of the 2011 Eagles, a team that loaded up a ton on
free agents, talked a bunch of crap about being a super team, and then
plummeted to 8-8. I’m not saying that’s what’s going to happen, but I wouldn’t
completely rule it out either. What if Goff got a one year bump from McVay, but
then torpedoes in 2018 once everyone has a year of tape and a whole off-season
to scheme for him? This isn’t a guy with a multi-year track record of success
in this league, not yet anyway.
I ranked the Saints over the
Vikings because they should’ve won the divisional playoff game between the two
that was played in January. New Orleans slogged through the first three
quarters before exploding for 24 points in the last 16 minutes. If Marcus
Williams doesn’t screw up the tackle on Stefon Diggs, or if the Saints don’t
play their worst game since September in the first three quarters, they go to
Philly for the NFC Championship Game and have a great shot to make the Super
Bowl.
Minnesota’s biggest
change was the switch at QB from Case Keenum to Kirk Cousins…. I’m sorry, but are we sure Cousins is THAT
much better than Keenum? Sure, I’d probably rather have Cousins, but it’s not
like they upgraded from Keenum to one of the five best QBs in the league. Plus,
it’s the Vikings. We’re talking about six decades of heart-breaking, gut punch
losses here. No one gets the hopes of their fanbase up more than the Vikings,
only to rip out there still-beating heart at the worst possible time. When they
walked off against the Saints last season, every Minnesota fan thought, “Hell
yes, we’ve finally got to the other side of this. The curse is broken. I don’t
have to hate my life anymore while I’m scraping ice off my car every morning in
-5 degree weather. I like being a winner. We’re winners now!”. Wrong. Philly
annihilated them.
(Quick Tangent: No player since Marshall Faulk in 1999 has had a season with both 1,000+ rushing yards and 1000+ receiving yards. A year like that feels in play for the Saints Alvin Kamara, who finished last season with 728 rushing yards and 826 receiving yards, despite the fact that he barely played until the Saints traded Adrian Peterson after 4 games. With Mark Ingram suspended for the first four games of the season, Kamara's role will be even larger than it was in 2017, when he only had 120 rushing attempts. Tack on an additional 80-100 carries and he'll assuredly eclipse the 1,000 yard mark. The receiving yards may be a bit more difficult to attain, considering he did make 81 catches last season. Faulk had 87 catches in '99; could Kamara get to like 90 or 95? Seems probable, considering his expanded role. What this is really all about is me hoping this happens because I have him on one of my fantasy teams.)
I think the Eagles have a
great shot to repeat, and the roster is loaded again, but the fact that Carson
Wentz still hasn’t been cleared for contact should be concerning to Philly
fans. Nick Foles was great in the playoffs, but let’s not forget that he was
also almost out of the league two years ago. And with LeGarrette Blount’s
departure to Detroit, Jay Ajayi becomes the featured back. Ugh… I’m not sure I’d
like that. If Wentz comes back and regains his 2017 form (and I think he will eventually),
then the Eagles will be in good shape to make the NFC Championship Game and
lose to….
Your
Super Bowl Champion
1. Atlanta
Falcons
Atlanta has everything; a
fast defense with an elite pass rusher in Vic Beasley, one of the ten best
coaches in the league in Dan Quinn, a very good offensive line, two nice
running backs, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, one of the three best
receivers in the NFL, Julio Jones, and a B+ or A- QB, Matt Ryan. The first five
games could be really difficult (at Philly, home for Carolina, home for New
Orleans, home for the Bengals, at Pittsburgh), but their last 11 games include
Arizona, Baltimore, Dallas, Cleveland, Washington, and two with Tampa. Even if
they don’t win the NFC South, I don’t think it’ll matter come playoff time
because they really don’t have any holes, assuming the offense can correct the
issues it had last season. Think about this: they crapped themselves on offense
for most of their divisional playoff game against the Super Bowl Champ Eagles
in a cold weather game, and still came within inches of winning and advancing
to the NFC title game.
I’m not saying they’ll be the 2016 Falcon offense this
season, but the defense will be good enough to make up for any gaps they
may have on that end. Yes, yes, blowing the 28-3 Super Bowl lead will always be
on their mind, but teams have overcome devastating losses before and captured
championships. Plus, they were still able to get back to the playoffs in 2017 despite it and, as mentioned before, were only a few plays away from
advancing to the NFC Championship Game again.
Super
Bowl 53
Falcons 27 Chiefs 23
Enjoy the NFL this year! I know I will!
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