Tennessee Needs To Beat Mizzou And Week 13 College Football Picks

It’s Week 13 (I can’t believe it) of the college football season, and sadly, there’s only three more Saturdays full of college football left until we enter the bowl season. Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end.

Which brings us to Tennessee’s 2019 season. Way back in October, the Vols were 1-4 and looked like they might’ve been one more bad loss away from Jeremy Pruitt getting the Chad Morris treatment. Since then, they’ve rallied to go 4-1 over their last five, and find themselves with the opportunity to sweep November and finish with a winning record in conference play for the first time since 2015. The recruiting has been good, the team has shown grit, and a January 1 Bowl Game could be a reality if they can find a way to win their final two games. The fanbase optimism is as high as it’s been since the Dobbsnail Boot.

With all that said, this is still just a 5-5 football team who is in the exact same position as they were last season. The 2018 Vols beat the hell out of Kentucky in Knoxville to get to .500, and had themselves one win away from bowl eligibility. All they had to do was beat either Missouri at home or win at Vanderbilt. Instead, they lost both by a combined score of 98-30, and missed a bowl game for the sixth time since 2008.

The Vols are better now than they’ve been at anytime since 2016. This weekend, at Missouri, is a game they should win. The Tigers offense has completely evaporated over the last month; in their last four games (all losses), Mizzou has a total of 27 points. Kelly Bryant’s transfer from Clemson has been a disaster for his football future, and I can’t imagine he’d have still chosen to go there if he had the chance to do it over again. Like at this point, he’d have to meet his future wife on the Mizzou campus for it be worth it. He’s gone from the starter on a playoff team in 2017 to an irrelevant college player who no one will hear from again in a couple of weeks.

Tennessee’s quarterback situation continues to be up in the air. Pruitt said at a press conference this week that he’s named a starter, but has no plans to announce who it will be. JT Shrout didn’t see the field against Kentucky, so I can only assume he won’t be out there. Jarrett Guarantano has appeared in relief each of the last six weeks. Brian Maurer, coming off multiple concussions, started against Kentucky but was pulled for JG in the second half due to his uneven play. Guarantano has been the best Vol quarterback since the South Carolina game, but that doesn’t mean he’ll start or get the majority of the snaps. Whoever ends up starting, I suspect that we’ll once again see two quarterbacks, hell maybe even all three, to varying degrees, unless whoever the starter is comes out and lights it up so much that there would be a team mutiny if he got pulled. Guarantano has played well enough recently to where the job should probably be his, except for the fact that he’s been so awful at other times that I (and hell, probably the entire Tennessee staff) half expect him to throw an interception every time he drops back to pass.

Regardless, these are two teams going in opposite directions. Mizzou has lost four in a row, while the Vols have won four out of five. As a program that seems to be going in the right direction, these are the kinds of games you should win. The Tigers are a mess, and the Vols had an extra week to prepare for Saturday. I actually think this would be a bad look for Pruitt if Tennessee goes in there and loses because of the circumstances and the perceptions around both teams at the moment. In fact, if the Vols don’t win out, I think the fans would have the right to be disappointed. Hell, I’m disappointed they didn’t beat Georgia State and BYU.

With all that said, the fact that Missouri is a four point favorite here is ridiculous, because their offense has been so bad that I’m not even sure they could score that many points. So that would mean that they could shut Tennessee out and still not cover. And while I don’t think the Vols have the most dynamic offense to ever grace the SEC, the Tigers looked miffed by Kentucky’s one trick pony attack. Vols +4 is the “Bet The Mortgage Pick of the Week.”

(The Bet The Mortgage Pick of The Week is on fire by the way. We’re 7-1 on the year and have won five weeks in a row. I’m giving away a free mortgage every week here and all you have to do is reach out and take it. Of course, these could implode at any week…..)

Prediction: Tennessee

Texas A&M at #4 Georgia

The last time the Aggies faced a defense as good as Georgia’s, it was Clemson, and they scored ten points, gained 289 yards (and only 53 on the ground) and turned the ball over twice. Why won’t something similar happen tomorrow?

I’m going to keep beating this drum until I’m proven wrong, but are we sure Jimbo Fisher is still a great coach? He’s just 21-13 over the last three seasons, and it really seems like he should be taking more of the blame than he is for the implosion of the Florida State program. He was hired to take A&M to heights that Kevin Sumlin couldn’t reach, but so far, through 23 games, he’s been worse (16-7) than Sumlin was (19-4). Sumlin lost both his 24^th and 25^th games, on the road against Top 25 teams. Jimbo gets Georgia on the road this week, and finishes next week at LSU. Sounds like two more losses.

Prediction: Georgia

UCLA at #23 USC

I’ve thought all year that Clay Helton was going to get fired at the end of the year and be replaced by Urban Meyer. There probably isn’t a coach in the country that I’ve made fun of more than Helton the last few years, and deservedly so by the way.

With all that said… I think he’s going to be the coach at USC in 2020. I can’t believe it, but he’s got the Trojans ranked inside the Top 25 and they’re a win against a crappy UCLA team away from being 8-4. Helton has a large buyout (reportedly around $15 million), and the team, while not close to the USC standard, hasn’t been a complete dumpster fire either. They’ll probably get invited to a nice bowl game and have chance to get their ninth win of the year.

Clay Helton is Butch Jones without the catch phrases and platitudes (by the way, Butch uttered “Champions of Life” three years ago yesterday. Damn. Three years later and it’s still the most cringe-worthy thing anyone has ever said outside of Justin Trudeau’s “Peoplekind”).

It doesn’t seem at this point like either Urban or USC have enough mutual interest in each other for the Trojans to fire a coach with a $15 million buyout.

Prediction: USC

Texas at #14 Baylor

The Longhorns have to be the most disappointing team in the country this season. They’ve lost three of their last five games, and their two victories in those five, over Kansas State and Kansas, came by a combined five points. I think Tom Herman needs to cut out the strip club visits until Texas gets the ship righted.

Baylor’s playoff chances blew to smithereens last week after they couldn’t hold a 28-3 second quarter lead on Oklahoma, and there’s a chance that a loss like that could torpedo their entire season.

Or, on the other hand, this struggling Texas team is exactly who Baylor would want to face coming off a loss like that. The Bears are still in contention to win the Big 12 and play in a New Years Six Bowl, something they haven’t done since Art Briles was the coach, and they could clinch a spot in the conference championship game with a win tomorrow.

Prediction: Baylor

#6 Oregon at Arizona State

This is our ABC Saturday Night Game AND Oregon’s toughest remaining game on their schedule, outside of their probable matchup with Utah in the Pac 12 Championship Game.

ASU’s problem tomorrow is that they stink. It’s just a bad football team. The Sun Devils have lost four games in a row and five of their last seven, and the “Oh damn, maybe Herm Edwards WILL work at Arizona State even though he’d been out of coaching for a decade” take has taken a major hit the last two months.

Prediction: Oregon

Arkansas at #1 LSU (-44)

There’s no better cure for your team’s crappy defense than Arkansas coming to town. The only thing interesting about this game tomorrow will be if LSU can cover the 44 point spread. The Tigers have beaten two teams this year by more than 44, Georgia Southern and Northwestern State. Their biggest win in conference play this season was over Vanderbilt by 28. I get it, Arkansas is a train wreck, but are they 16 points worse than the Commodores?

Prediction: LSU wins but doesn’t cover

#8 Penn State at #2 Ohio State

The game of the day and the best on-paper Big Noon Kickoff of the year.

Ohio State is favored by 18.5 points tomorrow, which seems like ten points too high, considering the Buckeyes haven’t covered the week before the Michigan game in the last six years. And while OSU certainly has better overall roster talent than the Nittany Lions, they’ve had that the last three years in this game and still needed two fourth quarter comebacks to avoid being 0-3 in this matchup. This will be a game in the fourth quarter as long as Penn State’s Sean Clifford can take care of the football.

With all that said, Ohio State is ranked in the Top 5 in total offense and total defense for a reason, and eventually their overall talent will push them over the top here. They'll punch in a late score tomorrow that makes this one a two possession game.

Enjoy football this weekend, you deserve it!