It’s Week 12 (I can’t believe
it) of the college football season, or as it should be referred to by a couple of
teams, “Letdown Saturday”.
Last week, LSU and
Minnesota both won their Super Bowls. The Gophers beat Penn State at home to get
the biggest win in their program since their claimed 1960 national championship.
Meanwhile, LSU exorcised all of their Alabama demons by knocking off the Tide
for the first time since 2011. Both schools jumped in the polls, the Tigers to #1
and the Gophers to #8, and have heard how great they are the entire week. Joe
Burrow got a fantasy hero's welcome back in Baton Rouge, and everyone has
already declared him the Heisman winner. Clyde Edwards-Helaire weeped in his
father’s arms like a boxer who just captured the heavyweight title. Ed Orgeron got
the double Gatorade bath. PJ Fleck got carried into the locker room. The fan
base rushed the field.
I’d just be careful if I
were them. Both go on the road this weekend, Minnesota to Iowa and LSU to Ole
Miss.
Let’s just start there….
#1
LSU at Ole Miss
I know, I know, this is a
mismatch. No way the Rebels could beat the Tigers, right?
Of course, don’t forget that
Ole Miss has hung around with better competition all year. They slapped up 31 points
on Alabama, and lost by a touchdown or less to both Texas A&M and Auburn.
LSU isn’t just going to be able to show up here and win, particularly not if
they’re still hungover from last Saturday. You don't get the same 19-20 year olds week to week, and how locked in are they going to be on this game when everything
before and after tomorrow is way more interesting and flashy? This really is
the classic trap game.
I’m not going to pick Ole
Miss, but I think LSU will start slow, and this will still be a game in the fourth
quarter.
Prediction: LSU
#8
Minnesota at #20 Iowa
The Gophers are going to
have the same problem as the Tigers, only they’re playing a better opponent. The
only thing that might save them is that Iowa has a crappy offense that has
scored 30 points one time this season against a Power 5 team, and that was
against Rutgers, who might be the worst program in the country.
On the other hand, the Hawkeyes
haven’t allowed more than 24 points in any game, and they’re going to do
everything in their power to ugly up the game and limit Minnesota’s possessions.
Factor in the whole Super Bowl thing last week with the weird stuff that seems
to happen to opponents in Kinnick Stadium, and I like Iowa here in a choppy
game played in the teens.
Prediction: Iowa
Michigan
State at #15 Michigan
This is Fox’s Big Noon
Kickoff this weekend. Yuck. The only thing that’s been more disappointing than
the Big Noon Kickoff this season is Michigan State, who blew a 25 point second
quarter lead at home last week to Illinois and Lovie Smith’s Santa beard.
Illinois!
This rivalry game is so
one sided this year that I don’t even think Jim Harbaugh could screw it up.
Are we sure Mark Dantonio
is going to be the coach in East Lansing next year? Since getting shut out in
the playoff by Alabama in 2015, he is a paltry 24-23. 24-23! He’s going to be .500
over a four year span after Saturday! Derek Dooley and Butch Jones were
disasters at Tennessee and even they were never that bad.
Prediction: Michigan
#11
Florida at Missouri
The Tigers are in a free
fall, having lost three in a row to Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Georgia by a
combined score of 77-21. The only argument for the Tigers I’ve heard came from
my old man last week, in between bites of Cheetos, when he said something to
the effect of “Yeah, Florida might struggle having to travel north in the cold.”
Or at least, that’s what I thought he said, but again, sometimes it’s hard to
discern exactly what is coming out of his mouth with all the crunching sounds.
I mean, it is going to be
in the low 40s at kickoff. Will that matter against a team that couldn’t beat
Vanderbilt? Seems unlikely.
Prediction: Florida
Wake
Forest at #3 Clemson
This Clemson’s toughest
test left until whoever they get in the playoff semifinals. Maybe the competition will be tougher in ACC
Championship Game? Maybe?
What a terrible,
atrocious league. Does anyone actually think that the Tigers are the 3rd
best team in the country? That they’d be undefeated against the LSU schedule?
The Auburn schedule? The Georgia schedule? The Penn State schedule? And yet,
they’re going to make the playoff anyway.
Can we just relegate the
ACC to the Group of Five?
This is going to be the
Bet The Mortgage Pick of the Week by the way. Clemson is a 32.5 point favorite tomorrow,
a tiny spread considering they’ve beaten each of their last four opponents by
at least 35 points. They might have 32.5 covered by the middle of the second quarter.
Prediction: Clemson
South
Carolina at Texas A&M
The time for Will
Muschamp to save his job begins tomorrow, on the road at Kyle Field against an
Aggie team that needs this game to avoid a probable 6-6 season in Jimbo Fisher’s
second year. A&M will be a double digit underdog the next two weeks at both
Georgia and LSU, meaning this might be their only real chance to get that seventh
win.
South Carolina is
terrible so there’s no way they’re going to travel halfway across the country
and win against a superior opponent. The more interesting thing about tomorrow
will be how disappointing Jimbo has been his first two years in College
Station. I don’t care about what A&M has been historically, they’re in
Texas, have a ton of money, outstanding facilities, and oh yeah, they’re paying
Jimbo $7.5 million a year. So far, he’s 15-7, which would be fine if he was just making
$3 million, but he's not, and he was brought in to be the savior, and the guy that would bring this program SEC Titles and playoff appearances. I’d be bummed out if I was them because I just shelled out this
kind of money and Jimbo has returned basically the exact same results that Kevin
Sumlin did so far. It’s a good thing Jimbo’s contract is fully guaranteed, because
there’s nothing better than paying $75 million over ten years for mediocrity!
Prediction: Texas A&M
#10
Oklahoma at #13 Baylor
This probable playoff eliminator
is the ABC Saturday Night Game.
Baylor may be the worst
9-0 team I’ve ever seen. They’ve won four of their conference games by single digits
in a Big 12 that is only a few steps above the ACC in terms of mediocrity. Matt
Rhule is a horrific dresser, and he looks like a guy that’s always trying to rip you
off on a car deal.
Meanwhile, there’s
Oklahoma, who has given up more than 40 points in both of their last two games,
outings that have seen the return of the horrible Sooner defenses that have
become a staple of the Lincoln Riley era.
Of course, the fewest amount
of points the Sooner have scored in any game this season is 34. They’ve been
over 40 every other week, and there’s no reason to think they won’t reach that
number again tomorrow, which means Baylor is going to have to match them point
for point. The Bears had nine points at the end of regulation last week against
TCU, and if OU can bring the same intensity on D that they had earlier in the year,
they could win by three touchdowns. If not, this is going to be a game in 40s
or 50s where no one stops anyone for 4 and a half hours. Both teams are going to be moved more frequently than a turnstile.
Prediction: Oklahoma
#4
Georgia at #12 Auburn
The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry
is the game of the day.
I received the following
text from my old man yesterday, and I’m going to print it exactly the way it
was sent to me:
Old Man: “Auburn beats
Georgia Saturday”
Me: “That’s your old man
take of the week?”
Old Man: “With a big bowl
of Cheetos”
Me: “Give me your rationale
so I can quote you”
Old man: “I will write it
for you.”
Old man: “Last night, my angry old man texted me with
his hot take as he was obviously in middle of stuffing his face with something
unhealthy. My go to is almost always Cheetos. But it could’ve been Oreos or Krystal
Burgers. He said “Auburn will beat Georgia”. That was his hot take. No other
explanation??? I wanted to hear more. So I texted back to ask him why. He didn’t
answer for a long time. My step mother, who just has to be a saint to put up with
my dad, texted me back and said he was doing his nightly visit to the “library”.
About a half hour later, he finally answered. “Dawgs will wilt under the
pressure of being ranked in the top 4 of the playoff rankings. Plus, Kirby
Smart is overrated as a coach”. Profound punditry from my old man. I’m sure
after that he went back to being grumpy and stuffing his face.”
That was so on point that
I couldn’t have written it any better myself.
It was like a super computer read all my stuff for the last couple of
years and then typed out its own take.
Prediction: Auburn
Enjoy football this weekend,
you deserve it.
Good stuff!
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