Friday, November 15, 2019

Letdown Saturday And Week 12 College Football Picks


It’s Week 12 (I can’t believe it) of the college football season, or as it should be referred to by a couple of teams, “Letdown Saturday”.
Last week, LSU and Minnesota both won their Super Bowls. The Gophers beat Penn State at home to get the biggest win in their program since their claimed 1960 national championship. Meanwhile, LSU exorcised all of their Alabama demons by knocking off the Tide for the first time since 2011. Both schools jumped in the polls, the Tigers to #1 and the Gophers to #8, and have heard how great they are the entire week. Joe Burrow got a fantasy hero's welcome back in Baton Rouge, and everyone has already declared him the Heisman winner. Clyde Edwards-Helaire weeped in his father’s arms like a boxer who just captured the heavyweight title. Ed Orgeron got the double Gatorade bath. PJ Fleck got carried into the locker room. The fan base rushed the field.
I’d just be careful if I were them. Both go on the road this weekend, Minnesota to Iowa and LSU to Ole Miss.
Let’s just start there….
#1 LSU at Ole Miss
I know, I know, this is a mismatch. No way the Rebels could beat the Tigers, right?
Of course, don’t forget that Ole Miss has hung around with better competition all year. They slapped up 31 points on Alabama, and lost by a touchdown or less to both Texas A&M and Auburn. LSU isn’t just going to be able to show up here and win, particularly not if they’re still hungover from last Saturday. You don't get the same 19-20 year olds week to week, and how locked in are they going to be on this game when everything before and after tomorrow is way more interesting and flashy? This really is the classic trap game.
I’m not going to pick Ole Miss, but I think LSU will start slow, and this will still be a game in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: LSU
#8 Minnesota at #20 Iowa
The Gophers are going to have the same problem as the Tigers, only they’re playing a better opponent. The only thing that might save them is that Iowa has a crappy offense that has scored 30 points one time this season against a Power 5 team, and that was against Rutgers, who might be the worst program in the country.
On the other hand, the Hawkeyes haven’t allowed more than 24 points in any game, and they’re going to do everything in their power to ugly up the game and limit Minnesota’s possessions. Factor in the whole Super Bowl thing last week with the weird stuff that seems to happen to opponents in Kinnick Stadium, and I like Iowa here in a choppy game played in the teens.
Prediction: Iowa
Michigan State at #15 Michigan
This is Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff this weekend. Yuck. The only thing that’s been more disappointing than the Big Noon Kickoff this season is Michigan State, who blew a 25 point second quarter lead at home last week to Illinois and Lovie Smith’s Santa beard. Illinois!
This rivalry game is so one sided this year that I don’t even think Jim Harbaugh could screw it up.
Are we sure Mark Dantonio is going to be the coach in East Lansing next year? Since getting shut out in the playoff by Alabama in 2015, he is a paltry 24-23. 24-23! He’s going to be .500 over a four year span after Saturday! Derek Dooley and Butch Jones were disasters at Tennessee and even they were never that bad.
Prediction: Michigan
#11 Florida at Missouri
The Tigers are in a free fall, having lost three in a row to Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Georgia by a combined score of 77-21. The only argument for the Tigers I’ve heard came from my old man last week, in between bites of Cheetos, when he said something to the effect of “Yeah, Florida might struggle having to travel north in the cold.” Or at least, that’s what I thought he said, but again, sometimes it’s hard to discern exactly what is coming out of his mouth with all the crunching sounds.
I mean, it is going to be in the low 40s at kickoff. Will that matter against a team that couldn’t beat Vanderbilt? Seems unlikely.
Prediction: Florida
Wake Forest at #3 Clemson
This Clemson’s toughest test left until whoever they get in the playoff semifinals. Maybe the competition will be tougher in ACC Championship Game? Maybe?
What a terrible, atrocious league. Does anyone actually think that the Tigers are the 3rd best team in the country? That they’d be undefeated against the LSU schedule? The Auburn schedule? The Georgia schedule? The Penn State schedule? And yet, they’re going to make the playoff anyway.
Can we just relegate the ACC to the Group of Five?
This is going to be the Bet The Mortgage Pick of the Week by the way. Clemson is a 32.5 point favorite tomorrow, a tiny spread considering they’ve beaten each of their last four opponents by at least 35 points. They might have 32.5 covered by the middle of the second quarter.
Prediction: Clemson
South Carolina at Texas A&M
The time for Will Muschamp to save his job begins tomorrow, on the road at Kyle Field against an Aggie team that needs this game to avoid a probable 6-6 season in Jimbo Fisher’s second year. A&M will be a double digit underdog the next two weeks at both Georgia and LSU, meaning this might be their only real chance to get that seventh win.
South Carolina is terrible so there’s no way they’re going to travel halfway across the country and win against a superior opponent. The more interesting thing about tomorrow will be how disappointing Jimbo has been his first two years in College Station. I don’t care about what A&M has been historically, they’re in Texas, have a ton of money, outstanding facilities, and oh yeah, they’re paying Jimbo $7.5 million a year. So far, he’s 15-7, which would be fine if he was just making $3 million, but he's not, and he was brought in to be the savior, and the guy that would bring this program SEC Titles and playoff appearances. I’d be bummed out if I was them because I just shelled out this kind of money and Jimbo has returned basically the exact same results that Kevin Sumlin did so far. It’s a good thing Jimbo’s contract is fully guaranteed, because there’s nothing better than paying $75 million over ten years for mediocrity!
Prediction: Texas A&M
#10 Oklahoma at #13 Baylor
This probable playoff eliminator is the ABC Saturday Night Game.
Baylor may be the worst 9-0 team I’ve ever seen. They’ve won four of their conference games by single digits in a Big 12 that is only a few steps above the ACC in terms of mediocrity. Matt Rhule is a horrific dresser, and he looks like a guy that’s always trying to rip you off on a car deal.
Meanwhile, there’s Oklahoma, who has given up more than 40 points in both of their last two games, outings that have seen the return of the horrible Sooner defenses that have become a staple of the Lincoln Riley era.
Of course, the fewest amount of points the Sooner have scored in any game this season is 34. They’ve been over 40 every other week, and there’s no reason to think they won’t reach that number again tomorrow, which means Baylor is going to have to match them point for point. The Bears had nine points at the end of regulation last week against TCU, and if OU can bring the same intensity on D that they had earlier in the year, they could win by three touchdowns. If not, this is going to be a game in 40s or 50s where no one stops anyone for 4 and a half hours. Both teams are going to be moved more frequently than a turnstile. 
Prediction: Oklahoma
#4 Georgia at #12 Auburn
The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry is the game of the day.
I received the following text from my old man yesterday, and I’m going to print it exactly the way it was sent to me:
Old Man: “Auburn beats Georgia Saturday”
Me: “That’s your old man take of the week?”
Old Man: “With a big bowl of Cheetos”
Me: “Give me your rationale so I can quote you”
Old man: “I will write it for you.”
Old man: “Last night, my angry old man texted me with his hot take as he was obviously in middle of stuffing his face with something unhealthy. My go to is almost always Cheetos. But it could’ve been Oreos or Krystal Burgers. He said “Auburn will beat Georgia”. That was his hot take. No other explanation??? I wanted to hear more. So I texted back to ask him why. He didn’t answer for a long time. My step mother, who just has to be a saint to put up with my dad, texted me back and said he was doing his nightly visit to the “library”. About a half hour later, he finally answered. “Dawgs will wilt under the pressure of being ranked in the top 4 of the playoff rankings. Plus, Kirby Smart is overrated as a coach”. Profound punditry from my old man. I’m sure after that he went back to being grumpy and stuffing his face.”
That was so on point that I couldn’t have written it any better myself.  It was like a super computer read all my stuff for the last couple of years and then typed out its own take.
Prediction: Auburn
Enjoy football this weekend, you deserve it.

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