The "Third Saturday In October" Blues; Plus, Week 8 College Football Picks

It’s Tennessee-Alabama week, the “Third Saturday in October”, or as it’s been known around the South the last few years, 42-10. The Tide are on their longest winning streak (12 straight!) in the history of this rivalry, and only 2 of those twelve have been decided by single digits. ‘Bama has scored over 40 points seven times during the streak, while the Vols have only managed 38 points total in the last three meetings.

I always hear from my Angry Old Man how painful it was from 1971-1981, when Alabama beat the Vols every year and it just never felt like Tennessee was going to get over that hump and win that game. Vol fans of that age remember that pain well. The sad thing is that the Alabama streak is longer now than it was then, and it’s going to get even longer this weekend.

October 21, 2006 was the last time Tennessee left this rivalry victorious. The Prestige was the number 1 movie at the box office that weekend, and SexyBack by Justin Timberlake was the number 1 song in the country. The Friday Night Lights TV show had just premiered on NBC earlier in the month, Twitter was in its infancy, George W. Bush was still president (and would be for two more years), and Keeping Up With The Kardashians was still a year away from launching.

I was 13 years old, weighed 80 pounds soaking wet, and had about as much success with women as the Captain of the Chess Club did. Now, I’m married and have a beer gut. See, it was a long time ago!

It’s been far too long since this “rivalry” was competitive. And the most sad thing is that there’s no end in sight to the Tide dominance. Saban looks entrenched at Alabama for the foreseeable future, Tennessee is awful and doesn’t have the right quarterback (Harrison Bailey next year??), and no one is 100% if the Vols have the right football coach. Okay, maybe I’m like 90% sure that they don’t. But still. Fine, it’s up in the air.

I’ll say this, if South Carolina can go to Georgia, be relegated to their third string quarterback after halftime, score one offensive touchdown, get shut out in the second half, miss two game-winning kicks, and still win, then why the hell can’t Tennessee go to Tuscaloosa and at least make it a game? Sure, I get it, Alabama is probably a bit better than Georgia, and let’s be honest, South Carolina winning that game was fluky as hell and probably happens one in a hundred times, but wouldn’t it be nice if Tennessee, I don’t know, exceeded expectations once?

When the Vols went there and lost by five in 2015, it made sense because that Tennessee team was ridiculously talented and loaded with NFL guys. The same thing goes for the 2009 Vols that went to Tuscaloosa and lost on a blocked field goal at the end of the game. When was the last time Tennessee won a game they weren’t supposed to? Hell, when was the last time they were in a game until the end that they weren’t supposed to be in? I’m racking my brain here trying to think of the last time. Last year against Auburn? No, because the Vols were coming off their bye week and that Tiger team wasn’t that good (they ended the year with five losses). Last year against Kentucky doesn’t qualify either because the Vols were at home and they’re the big brother in that “rivalry”. 2017 was a disaster, and they were loaded with talent in 2016 and 2015. Hell, maybe it was the 2014 Alabama game, in Knoxville, when Josh Dobbs came in and helped the Vols outscore the Tide in the second half on their way to a 34-20 loss. And even that was a 14 point game.

But still, isn’t this program due for something fluky? A game where it’s unexplainable but everything goes their way? Teams can move the ball on that Alabama defense. The Tide haven’t run the ball this season like a traditional Saban offense (they’re only 8^th in the SEC in rush yards per game). They’re super Tua-reliant… what if he has a bad game? Sails a few throws?

Things are so desperate in Knoxville that Pruitt joked at his Monday presser about just onside kicking every time. If Brian Maurer is out with a concussion, it's another Jarrett Guarantano game, and that could get frightening quickly. Of course, I'm not THAT confident in Maurer either.

Listen, I know it’s going to be a slaughter. A clobbering. A shellacking. An embarrassment. Jeremy Pruitt is going to do his postgame presser sometime after midnight central time, and he’s going to talk about the same things as always. About how they didn’t execute well enough, but how they fought for sixty minutes. About how they need to improve. Along the way, he’ll butcher the English language with regularity, and he’ll awkwardly sip a bottle of water and think to himself “Damn, can I get my job back with Saban, or am I going to be carrying coffee to Butch Jones as his analyst to Saban’s analyst in two years?” Yadda yadda yadda. It’s the same tired script over and over again, from the head coach at the podium to the team’s performance on fall Saturdays.

When they lose tomorrow, I’m not going to kill Jeremy Pruitt. I’ll just be disappointed, and resigned to the fact that this is the program I root for now.

At least we have this:

Now, onto the rest of the slate…

#4 Ohio State at Northwestern (Friday)

This one is for those of you who are stuck at home tonight polishing off a case of Naturdays and want to watch men running into each other at full speed to help sober you up. I don’t think that works by the way.

The Buckeyes have won every game this season by at least 24 points, and had their bye last week. Meanwhile, Northwestern is having their worst season in years; they’re 1-4 and have yet to beat a Power 5 opponent. The only chance of this game being competitive is if the Wildcats catch Ohio State napping/looking forward to their home showdown next week against Wisconsin. Otherwise, the Buckeyes will win by 40 and have their starters out by halftime.

Prediction: Ohio State

West Virginia at #6 Oklahoma

Fox’s “Big Noon Kickoff” is an on paper flop for the fifth time in 8 weeks, and it also brings us our “Bet the Mortgage Pick of the Week” for Week 8. OU is favored by only 33.5… I’m sorry, but how do they not win this one by six touchdowns? The Sooners have an improved defense (41^st in yards allowed and 31^st in points allowed), and have the number 1 offense in the country in terms of yards per game. They’re third in points scored per game, fifth in passing yards per game, and third in rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, West Virginia ranks 114^th in the country in total yards and 97^th in the nation in points per game. You’re not going to believe this, but their defense sucks too, ranking 87^th in rushing yards allowed per game and 94^th in points allowed per game. Seriously, why doesn’t this game finish 62-10? Oh, I know how, the Oklahoma sideline gets struck by a meteor right before kickoff.

Prediction: Oklahoma

#9 Florida at South Carolina

The Gamecocks were a nice story last week, and they pulled off the wildest upset of the season, but come on, their offense is atrocious without quarterbacks Jake Bentley and Ryan Hilinski, and if Georgia didn’t screw up so badly in every key moment, South Carolina loses and no one is even thinking twice about this game. Hell, frankly, they aren’t now. Georgia choked so badly last week that South Carolina kept trying to give them the game AND they still couldn’t take it. Both teams were treating last week’s game like the winner had to chug a boiling hot Natty Light. Eventually Will Muschamp’s sweaty fat beer gut got thirsty enough and he decided that he wanted to win.

Florida has answered all the questions that anyone had about them with their performances the last two weeks, and Kyle Trask has been one of the better quarterbacks in the SEC since he took over the starting job from Feleipe Franks (comeback win against Kentucky, blowout win over Tennessee, double digit win against Auburn, over 300 passing yards against LSU). Of course, anyone who replaced Franks would look competent. They could’ve thrown my Angry Old Man and his Chad Pennington noodle arm out there and the Gators would’ve been massively improved, as long as his Cheeto-stained fingers could've gripped the ball.

Florida goes into South Carolina and wins comfortably.

Prediction: Florida

#2 LSU at Mississippi State

Great, this is our SEC Game of the Week on CBS. Mississippi State is so bad that Tennessee kicked their ass last week. I can’t imagine a scenario where the Joe Burrow-led offense doesn’t put up 50+ on the Bulldogs. Oh wait, I’ve already done a joke similar to this earlier. Yeah, the meteor thing. Other than that, it’s a blowout.

Prediction: LSU

#12 Oregon at #25 Washington

Ah, something compelling. It’s a shame that Fox is spending all their time hyping up their noon kickoffs (and placing their lead announcers there) because this is arguably the game of the week in the country outside of Michigan-Penn State. Obviously you can’t have a West Coast game at noon eastern, but what would be wrong with hyping this game up and sending Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt here? I promise you this is going to be way better than whatever crap fest performance West Virginia brings to Norman.

The Pac 12 really needs Oregon to win tomorrow to help keep their conference's playoff hopes alive, but I’m not optimistic about their chances. Both teams have fantastic, NFL quarterbacks in Oregon’s Justin Herbert and Washington’s Jacob Eason, but the weather forecast in Seattle calls for temperatures in the low 50s with rain, which could hamper the offensive output of these two.

Washington is already out of the playoff hunt with two losses. If Justin Herbert is going to be a legend at Oregon, and a guy that NFL teams are seriously considering taking #1 overall, then this game, against a good but not great Washington team, is a one he has to go win. Of course, I have no belief in the Ducks in a big spot, particularly not the Mario Cristobal Ducks, who have lost every close game they’ve been in, oftentimes late, due to sloppy execution and soul crushing mistakes. I could foresee Oregon having a couple of bad red zone turnovers, and a late Washington TD drive where they convert a few third and longs. It’s up to the Ducks to change the narrative. We’ll see if Herbert has the goods.

Prediction: Washington

Kentucky at #10 Georgia

Georgia spent the entire week getting ripped/made fun of for being choking ‘Dawgs. Hell, I’ve made fun of them in writing today. If Kirby Smart is a good coach (and from everything we’ve seen so far, he is), I can’t envision them being flat or unprepared again this season. They certainly won’t lose another game like last weekend for a long time. If anything, they’ll be extra motivated this week to come out and make a statement, in hopes of shutting everyone up. Remember, Georgia still controls their own destiny in the conference and in the playoff. All they have to do is win out. They’ve faced worse adversity than this during Smart’s tenure and been able to bounce back. Plus, Kentucky is wretched.

Prediction: Georgia

#17 Arizona State at #13 Utah

This is a yearly gripe for me, but as the Pac 12, how the hell do you allow what is arguably the most important game in one of your divisions to be relegated to the Pac 12 Network, a channel that a large majority of Americans don’t have? Oregon-Washington is maybe the most important game in the Pac 12 North, and they found a way to get it on Fox. How the hell is this not at least a #Pac12AfterDark game on either ESPN or FS1? Someone in the Pac 12 offices needs to be fired. This is an atrocity.

The winner here keeps a single defeat in their conference loss column and has the inside track to the Pac 12 Championship Game (yes, yes, I know USC and Arizona only have one conference loss as well. Counter point: USC is terrible and coached by high school janitor, while Arizona lost by 24 to Washington at home last week and their conference wins are over Colorado and UCLA. Not exactly the top of the league there).

I’m so riled up about this stupid Pac 12 Network garbage that I can’t think coherently about this game. Herm Edwards has done a nice job at Arizona State, far better than anyone expected him to do, considering pretty much everyone ripped the hire at the time when it happened. Wait a second, I did that too.

However, I think Saturday is going to be too tough for them. If Utah is as good as everyone said they were going to be in the preseason, this is a game they should win.

Prediction: Utah

Florida State at Wake Forest

You know the Seminole program has collapsed when they’re underdogs against Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are 1.5 point favorites even with last week’s embarrassing performance where they gave up 62 points to Louisville.

I would love to spend a week at FSU’s practices and see what they’re like. Does Willie Taggart actually do any coaching or preparation, or does he just sit in his office all day, staring blankly at his computer screen while constantly drinking from a flask? It legitimately seems like that’s what he does with how the team looks every week.

I really don’t care about this game, I just couldn’t pass up an opportunity to make fun of Willie Taggart. Don’t worry Seminole fans, you only owe him $17 million more guaranteed.

Prediction: Wake Forest

#16 Michigan at #7 Penn State

The Nittany Lions have the fourth ranked defense in terms of yards per game and the second ranked defense in terms of points allowed per game. If you’ve watched any of Michigan this year, you’ve seen them have about as much ability to score as I would posting up Shaq. Beaver Stadium is going to be electric on Saturday Night. The Wolverines are going to get run out of the building.

Another loss for Harbaugh against a rival. Don't worry, he's only 2-157 in those games.

Prediction: Penn State

Enjoy football this weekend, you deserve it!