Ohio State Topples Alabama, And NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

Yesterday was a historic day for college football, one that will be remembered forever in the hearts and minds of everyone who loves the sport, as the first ever playoff games were held at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, and the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. It was a great and exciting day for the college game, and both games were, at times, highly contested. And at the end of the day, we ended up with the unexpected championship game of Oregon and Ohio State.

Ohio State? What? They, with a third string quarterback, knocked off Alabama?

Buckeyes Overcome The Tide

For me, this was one of the most surprising results of the college football season. It wasn't because I was under the false impression that Alabama was great; I just thought that any time you give Nick Saban a month to prepare for a third string quarterback, Cardale Jones, who isn’t overly accurate (he was 18-35 yesterday) making just the second start of his career, there’s a pretty good chance that this one could get out of hand pretty quickly. And when ‘Bama led 21-6 in the second quarter, I thought we’d reached that point. But, surprisingly, Ohio State mustered a huge drive that ended with a 3 yard touchdown run by Ezekiel Elliot, and then cut the lead to 21-20 just before halftime on a 13 yard touchdown pass by wide receiver Evan Spencer.

At that point, the momentum had flipped, and OSU came out of the locker room like gangbusters, scoring the next two touchdowns (including an interception of Blake Sims that was returned for a touchdown), capping off a 28-0 run that put them ahead 34-21.

Alabama would add a touchdown late in the 3^rd quarter that cut the lead to 34-28, but as the 4^th quarter wore on, the Tide just couldn’t push through. After one of the worst punts I’ve ever seen by a college punter, ‘Bama started their possession at the Ohio State 23 yard line. And on the first play of that drive, Sims dropped back to pass and threw his second interception of the game.

Late in the 4^th quarter, as the Buckeyes held the ball deep in their own territory, clinging to a 34-28 lead, my Angry Old Man asked me what I thought was going to happen. Honestly, at that moment, I thought Alabama would stop them, force a punt, get the ball back, and take it down the field for the winning touchdown. That program has been in this spot a few times during the Saban era, and besides a few rare cases (like the Kick Six), they just seem to always miraculously pull these games out. And when they do lose close games, it always feels wrong, like it wasn’t supposed to happen.

Well, incredibly, and strangely enough, literally on the play after I announced that I thought they’d win, Ezekiel Smith, thanks to a few great blocks, sprung for what was virtually a game-winning 85 yard touchdown run.

Alabama got the ball back and quickly scored to cut the lead to 42-35, and then, after a failed onside kick, stopped Ohio State, and started their do-or-die possession deep in their own territory with just over a minute and a half to go. Sure, driving the field in that little of time would be unexpected, and incredible, but they wasted so much time on the drive, and were only able to advance the ball just past midfield. Sims’ desperation bomb to the end zone on the last play of the game was intercepted, and it was over.

I still can’t believe it. I’ll give the Buckeyes’ defense a ton of credit for locking down in the second half, but I also thought the Tide offense, when they were in tight spots throughout the game, went away from their best asset (and the reason they’ve won 3 national titles), that physical, pounding rushing offense. Sims threw the ball 36 times, which doesn’t sound like all that many, until you realize that Derrick Henry and T.J. Yeldon had only 23 carries combined. Amari Cooper is a great receiver, and if I’m Alabama, I’d want to target him as many times as possible, but the passing attack isn’t the strength of this team. I know Yeldon was banged up a little bit, but this game was for your entire season. Why change strategy right now, in the biggest contest of the year? They were never far enough behind in the game, besides late in the 4^th quarter, when they had no choice but to completely abandon their rushing attack, yet they spent a large portion of the game doing that very thing.

Those decisions, along with Sims’ turnovers, the poor tackling, particularly on Ezekiel Smith, who had 230 yards on just 20 carries, and the terrible time management at the end of the game were all very un-Alabama-like things that caused them to lose. I don’t want to take any credit away from Ohio State, because they were definitely the better team yesterday, but it seems like every time the Tide have lost under Saban, the game is always full of plays like that. The “Game of the Century” against LSU in 2011 was full of turnovers, and  also included one of the worst kicking displays I’ve ever seen in a college game. When they blew their huge lead in the Auburn game in 2010, the Tigers benefited from a rare Mark Ingram fumble, and another possession that ended when Alabama coughed the ball up in the red zone. In this year’s Ole Miss game, the Rebels returned a fumble for a touchdown, and made an amazing interception on a Sims' throw into the end zone late in the game. In the game against Texas A&M in 2012 that put Johnny Football on the map, the Tide were on the doorstep of taking the lead when A.J. McCarron’s 4^th down and goal pass was intercepted in the front corner of the end zone.

These are just some examples of games they lost, but I’d encourage you to go back and read about any of their losses since 2008. They’re full of this well-oiled, highly efficient team not executing like one. And because they do everything so perfect almost every week, it’s even more evident when they don’t play that way, and when they make enormous, game-altering mistakes.

Ducks Trample Seminoles

Oregon, with yesterday’s performance, showed why they’ve probably been the best team in the country over the last two months of the season. Don’t forget that Florida State was in the game at halftime, with the momentum, trailing just 18-13, before they committed four enormous, game-changing turnovers that all led to Oregon touchdowns, including the fumble by Jameis Winston that basically clinched the game for the Ducks. It was amazing how quickly the game flipped in that third quarter, and it all started with that defense. I never thought I’d come away from an Oregon game praising the play of the defense, but in this case, they were the reason Oregon won by 39. Sure, Mariota was great (26-36, 338 yards passing, 62 yards rushing, and 3 total touchdowns), but the defense, with those turnovers, kept giving the offense short field after short field, something the Ducks’ are pretty much always going to capitalize on. This is the best Oregon team I’ve ever seen, and it’s because of the defense. They’ve always been unstoppable on offense, and their quarterback play has been great, even before Mariota arrived, but this is the best and most physical defense and team they’ve ever had.

The Best Day In The History Of The Big 10

Ok, that’s not true, but yesterday was a great day for that conference, one that everyone had been trashing all season, including me. I’ll stand by everything I said and wrote about that league this season, because I still think they were terrible for much of the year, but they certainly scored some huge victories yesterday. Baylor collapsed, much like TCU did against them, and allowed Michigan State to make some gigantic plays down the stretch in their improbable comeback win. Melvin Gordon gashed Auburn all day, and of course, there’s Ohio State, who pulled off the biggest win of the day.

Maybe, instead of saying “Wow, the Big 10 is great!” why don’t we say, “Hmmm…. Maybe the SEC just wasn’t that good this year”. Why is that a problem? Half of the defenses in the conference sucked, and the other half were somewhere between “pretty good” and “we get torched once every two or three weeks”. I mean, when was the last time you saw a Big 10 team just absolutely push around an SEC team? It happened twice just yesterday! Auburn couldn’t be bothered to even touch Gordon, and OSU, at times, looked faster and more physical than ‘Bama. And don’t forget New Years’ Eve, when Georgia Tech burned Mississippi State for 452 yards on the ground, and TCU, who made Ole Miss look like a terrified JV team play against the varsity.

I still think the SEC is the best conference in the country, and one bad bowl season can’t change that, but maybe, just maybe, everyone else is quickly and quietly closing the gap. Frankly though, getting pushed around like that in multiple games should be the most concerning thing for this league going forward. Sure, the SEC would lose bowl games in the past, but it wasn’t because they got punched in the mouth so many times that they just couldn’t fight anymore. But that reality was evident, at least at some point, in almost every one of their losses the last two days. It’s been a nice, decade long run of dominance for them, but it might be over sooner than they ever dreamed of. We’ll see what happens next season, and in the years beyond that.

Now, onto my Wild Card Weekend picks for the NFL (Home team in CAPS)…..

PANTHERS over Cardinals

I can’t believe I’m taking Carolina in this game. I really can’t. This is literally the toilet bowl of the NFL playoffs, because I couldn’t see myself picking either one of these teams against anyone else in the playoffs. Unfortunately, someone has to win, and I went with the Panthers for three reasons:

1. I’m never picking a team quarterbacked by Ryan Lindley to win a road playoff game. That’s about as smart as bloodletting, which is basically attaching leeches to your body to get rid of disease, a common medical practice that occurred up until the late 19^th century.
2. Carolina, winners of four in a row, is the hotter of the two teams entering this match up, even though they didn’t beat anyone in those games with a winning record. It’s ok though, because here’s the number of points Arizona scored in their last six games: 3, 18, 17, 12, 6, and 17. That’s, for those of you not doing math at home, an average of about 12.2 points per contest. Not good.
3. The last two times a team .500 or below hosted a playoff game in the Wild Card Round, they won. In 2008, San Diego, winners of the AFC West at 8-8, defeated the Colts, and in 2010, the 7-9 Seahawks, winners of the NFC West, bowled over the Saints, thanks in large part to this Marshawn Lynch TD run. So, stupidly enough, history is on the side of the crappy division winners hosting a playoff game.

It’s a shame the Cards’ season is going to end like this. If only Carson Palmer didn’t get hurt. It’s just a lost season, and one that could’ve ended with Arizona hosting the Super Bowl in their own stadium.

STEELERS over Ravens

I’m not sure how glad I am that we’re getting this game again. It is one of the best rivalries in the NFL, but just how good is Baltimore exactly? They only have two impressive wins all season; their domination of Pittsburgh all the way back in Week 2, and a 15 point victory in Miami in Week 14. And then you look at their last three games; a hotly contested eight point victory over the lowly Jaguars, a loss at Houston, one of their worst-played games of the season, and a ten point victory over Cleveland, one the Ravens were actually trailing in at the start of the 4^th quarter.

The only concern for Pittsburgh is that they’ll be without Le’Veon Bell, who accounted for 35.4% of Steelers’ yards this season. That’s a huge blow, and an enormous obstacle, but it’s not like they don’t have more than enough playmakers, particularly in the passing game, to overcome basically any injury, particularly against a team like Baltimore that has it’s own issues. Plus, the last time these teams played, Pittsburgh won on the strength of Ben Roethlisberger’s arm (he threw six touchdown passes), and the pass rush generated by their front seven. As far as I can tell, both of those things will still be around tomorrow night.

COLTS over Bengals

Really, all I need to say about this one is, “I’m not picking Andy Dalton to win a road playoff game, because that’s about as smart as nailing a board to your head”. Seriously. Who has faith in Cincy this week? I know I don’t. Throw in A.J. Green’s concussion (who knows how well he’ll play this weekend?), and I’ve basically got enough evidence to go completely the other way. As talented as the Bengals roster is, they reek of, “We never step up in big games”. That’s what happens when Marvin Lewis is your head coach, and you’re quarterbacked by Big Game Andy. Lewis is 0-5 in the playoffs, and 0-3 with Dalton, who has completed a paltry 56.91% of his passes, while throwing six interceptions with just one touchdown. I’ll believe Cincinnati can win a playoff game when they actually do it.

DALLAS over Detroit

Having Ndamukong Suh’s suspension for stomping on Aaron Rodgers’ leg should help Detroit, because they’ll need him to be great all game if they’re going to have any hope of slowing down the Cowboys’ ground attack. The most surprising thing about Detroit’s season has been their lack of offensive firepower, something I never thought I’d say. They scored over 30 just three times, and averaged just 20.1 points per game, 22^nd in the NFL, and 11^th of the 12 playoff teams (only Arizona scored less per game). And since I don’t have any faith in them slowing down the Dallas running game (they’ve gashed everyone this season), they’ll need a great performance from Matt Stafford and that offense, something I’m not sure that group is capable of mustering, even against the mediocre Cowboy defense. The worst case scenario for the Lions is, unfortunately for them, what I think will happen; Dallas will churn up a zillion yards on the ground, control the time of possession, get a few nice throws from Tony Romo, a touchdown or two from Dez Bryant, and leave Jerry World with a comfortable, double digit victory.

So, like always, enjoy football this weekend. You deserve it.