It’s Divisional Playoff Weekend in the NFL, and we’re fresh
off an exhilarating set of Wild Card games that saw Arizona manage a
jaw-dropping and how-is-that-even-possible 78 yards, another prime example of
a “Big Game Andy” performance in Colts-Bengals, and an abysmal call in the Lions-Cowboys game
that’s gotten way too much credit for the Dallas
victory.
In terms of this round though, I’ve got a dirty little
secret for you: one of the four road teams (Baltimore, Carolina ,
Dallas, and Indianapolis ) will
leave their friendly confines, overcome the odds (none of them are favored),
and win. Seriously, It's going to happen. History is on that side, because it’s occurred at
least once every year since 2005 in the Divisional Playoffs. In fact, since
that season, 14 of the 36 road teams have entered this weekend and left victorious, an average of a little more than one and a half teams per year.
So who are the most likely road winners? The teams that win
away from home (or win, in general) in the playoffs typically fall into a few
of these categories:
- They’re hotter and healthier than their home counterparts
- They have an elite, game-changing, championship-winning skill (they’re great at rushing the passer, can control the clock with the running game, etc.), while the home team they’re facing doesn’t
- They’ve got the best, hottest quarterback on the field
- They’ve got the best coach in the game
- They’ve traditionally been a tough match up for the home team they’re playing
So which team traveling this weekend is most likely to win? Let’s
look at the matchups.
Hotter and Healthier
Edge: Ravens
The Patriots won three games in a row from Weeks 14-16,
before losing to Buffalo in their
finale, a game where they virtually rested everyone. I know I basically took a
crap on everything Baltimore last
week, including their less than impressive end to the season, but they looked
better than anyone in last weekend’s Wild Card games, as they absolutely
dismantled the Steelers, one of the hottest teams in the league. Also, keep in
mind that New England hasn’t played a serious game in
two weeks, which is a bigger deal than you realize. Think about this: they’ve
been grinding as hard as they possibly can every week since August, only, all of the sudden, that sense of urgency was ripped right out from under them the last two weeks, because they really haven't had to prepare for, or be focused on, an opponent. It
makes you wonder if they’ll have lost a little bit of an edge by kickoff. And
it’s not like this would be the first time resting guys in Week 17 and then
having a bye week came back to bite someone. Remember all of Peyton Manning’s
early playoff exits? How many times did they have everything locked up by the
final week of the season, so they rested everyone, and then had a bye in the
Wild Card round, which was immediately followed by a lackluster performance against an inferior opponent in their Divisional Game? They just seemed like they'd lose their edge in those two weeks without football. Baltimore
has been all about football for the entire season, and just last week, they got back their elite defensive
tackle Haloti Ngata from his suspension for performance enhancing drugs.
Elite, Championship Winning Skill
Edge: Draw
The Ravens’ weakness, their terrible secondary, is almost as
debilitating as the Patriots’ lack of weapons. The Pats have one skill position
player on their roster that scares me, tight end Rob Gronkowski. Besides that?
There’s a lot of nobodies and people no one has ever heard of.
Best, Hottest Quarterback
Edge: Draw
Tom Brady could be the NFL MVP this season, but don’t forget
that Joe Flacco, after last week’s victory, has now won SEVEN road playoff
games in his career. SEVEN!!! That’s crazy, and more than all but five TEAMS in
the history of the league. Flacco is money is the postseason, and it’s just
another reason as to why I’m an idiot for not only picking against, but
also summarily dismissing, them last week.
Best Coach
Edge: Draw
Both Bill Belichick and John Harbaugh are among the five
best coaches in the NFL, though I think Belichick has probably gotten too much
credit for the success of the Pats, while Harbaugh hasn’t gotten enough praise
for the job he’s done in Baltimore .
Plus, John has been there for all seven of Flacco’s road playoff wins. He’s got
to get some credit for that right?
Has Baltimore
been recently successful against New England ?
Answer: Yes
Since Flacco and Harbaugh arrived in Baltimore ,
the Ravens are 3-4 against the Patriots, including two road playoff wins, the
2009 AFC Wild Card Round, and the 2012 AFC Championship Game. They’ve always
been a tough match up for New England , and I expect the
same on Saturday.
Prediction: Patriots
I think New England wins close, but
it won’t be easy. I think their two week layoff is a bigger deal than anyone
realizes, and I know they’re going to have an extremely difficult time keeping
Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil out of Tom Brady’s face. However, unlike
years’ past, the Pats can also cause Baltimore
the same type of problems with pass rushers, and they have the best cornerback
tandem outside of Seattle . This,
since October, has consistently been the best team in the NFL, and it just
feels like their year. It’ll be a great game, but the Pats will win, barely.
Hotter and Healthier
Edge: Seahawks
Elite, Championship Winning Skill
Edge: Seahawks
I’m not sure what Carolina ’s
elite skill is exactly, and I don’t think anyone who is 7-8-1 is even capable of having one. They run the
ball decently well, the defense comes and goes, and they’re pretty physical,
but are they “elite” anywhere on the field? I don’t think so. Seattle ’s
pass rush and secondary is humming just like they were last season, and the
offense is good enough, despite the fact that they’ve got the worst skill
position players in the playoffs. They just need Russell Wilson to make a few
plays here and there and they’ll be fine.
Best, Hottest Quarterback
Edge: Draw
I don’t think QB play will ultimately make a difference in
this game, and if we’re being honest, what does Russell Wilson give you that
Cam Newton can’t? I can’t think of anything. Wilson
is a great athlete, but Newton is
an absolute monster. He’s got Roethlisberger’s body, Michael Vick’s legs, and
Aaron Rodgers’ arm, and if he ever figured out how to put it all together, he’d
be really special. Plus, if these two switched places, would these teams’
records have changed at all the last three years? I feel like they wouldn’t.
Both teams rely heavily on their defense and running game, and they only need
their quarterback to make a few plays a game to be successful.
Best Coach
Edge: Seahawks
I don’t think either of these guys are geniuses, but Pete
Carroll does have a Super Bowl ring, and Ron Rivera doesn’t. I’m not really
sure how to compare these two other than that. Like a lot of NFL coaches,
there’s a few smart guys (Belichick, Harbaugh), a few morons (Wade Phillips),
and everyone else is somewhere in the middle. The coaching match up really only
matters if you’ve got a clown like Jim Zorn going on the road to play a smart
guy like Tom Coughlin.
Has Carolina
been recently successful against Seattle ?
Answer: Yes
These teams have played each other the last three seasons,
with each game taking place in Charlotte .
Seattle has won all of them, but
each contest has been an all out war. Here are the scores:
2012: 16-12
2013: 12-7
2014: 13-9
Those results are really the only reason I have any hope
that this game will be competitive. The Panthers are one of the few teams that
can physically match up with the Seahawks, and they never back down from their
challenge. Then again, they’ve never played them in Seattle ,
with the 12th man screaming like a bunch of nut jobs for three
hours.
Prediction: Seahawks
I want this to be a close game, but it feels like it could get
ugly quickly, and look like every other Seattle game the last six weeks, where
the score always looks like it’s in reach, only you know it’s really not,
because the Seahawk defense just keeps murdering every offensive series put
forth by the opposition. This just seems like a 19-3 type of game.
Hotter and Healthier
Edge: Draw
Neither of these teams exactly tore it up down the stretch,
though the Broncos really haven’t impressed me since October. Indy didn’t beat
a really good team all year outside two victories over Cincinnati ,
and Manning’s arm looks dead, and has gotten progressively worse over the
season. None of these teams are really banged up, but it feels like these are
the only two playoff squads that have gotten WORSE as the season went along.
Elite, Championship Winning Skill
Edge: Broncos
The Colts have the worst roster of everyone in the playoffs.
Take Andrew Luck off that team and they probably win four games. Seriously. It’s
terrible. The defense isn’t any good, the offensive line seems like it’s held
together by clothespins, and the only thing I can compare to their running game
is Lil Wayne’s musical talent (which is non-existent). It’s Luck or bust every
single week for this team. That’s good enough to get to the Divisional
playoffs, but I doubt it’ll ever be enough for anything more than that. At
least Denver has a top three
defense, and mysteriously began to run the ball effectively at the end of the
season (C.J. Anderson is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, and 108 yards per contest
over the Broncos’ last six games). Plus, if Manning can get the ball to them,
they’ve got some of the best playmakers in the NFL.
Best, Hottest Quarterback
Edge: Colts
What Manning am I going to get? He hasn’t been able to throw
the ball down the field all season, even in warm weather with no wind. Why would
I trust him to be able to do that now, on a day with a high of 45 and light
winds? That doesn’t sound horrible, but don’t forget that Peyton’s ball had
trouble cutting through the relatively warm San Diego
air in Week 15. I don’t have any doubts about Luck being able to power the
football through the conditions. I can’t say that about Manning.
Best Coach
Edge: Draw
To me, their isn’t any perceptible difference between Chuck
Pagano and John Fox. Both are smart guys, and I’d be happy with either of them
as my head coach.
Has Indianapolis
been recently successful against Denver ?
Answer: Yes
These teams have met twice since Manning moved on to Denver ,
and Luck arrived in Indianapolis . The
Colts won the match up in Lucas Oil Stadium in 2013, and Denver
narrowly escaped victorious in this year’s game, which occurred all the way
back in Week 1. Unlike the Baltimore-New England and Carolina-Seattle games, I
don’t feel like the previous meetings between these teams will really be an indication
of anything. Peyton just doesn’t look like he’s even close to being the same
guy he was back in September, and because of that, this Bronco team plays and
feels completely different.
Prediction: Broncos
I flipped back and forth on this game a zillion times before
finally throwing my hands up in the air and siding with Denver .
I just can’t see a team with Andrew Luck and a bunch of scrubs playing in the
AFC Championship Game. They really need to do a better job of improving that
roster that’s one Luck away from being the Tennessee Titans. Even if Manning
plays poorly, the Broncos still have enough on the defensive side of the ball
to give the Indy offense some problems, and the Colts’ D shouldn’t put up all
that much resistance against the newfound Denver
rushing attack.
Hotter and Healthier
Edge: Cowboys
Elite, Championship Winning Skill
Edge: Cowboys
Both of these teams have great offensive lines, but Green
Bay never quite figured out how to run behind it this
season like Dallas did. That might
be where Demarco Murray comes in, and the Pack don’t have a back anywhere close
to his caliber. The Cowboys, solely on the strength of that running game, could
win the Super Bowl. It controls the clock and keeps their suspect defense on
the sidelines and out of harms way.
Best, Hottest Quarterback
Edge: Packers
I have a lot of respect for the way Tony Romo played this
season. I never thought I’d say this, but incredibly, at some point this
season, he won me over. But compared to Rodgers? Please. I’d take him even with
his calf injury. How is it possible that this guy hasn’t thrown a home
interception since 2012?
Best Coach
Edge: Draw (maybe)
It’s not a draw if “I’m An Idiot” Jason Garrett shows up,
meaning the guy who abandons the running game after the first quarter, a common
theme for Cowboy teams during his tenure. But if the other Garrett arrives in
Packerland, the guy who smartly allowed his team to run the ball 508
times this season, then the coaching match up is basically a dead heat. I like
Mike McCarthy, but is he any more brilliant than “I Don’t Feel Like Continuing
To Stick My Head Up My Butt” Jason Garrett? I don’t think so.
Has Dallas been recently
successful against Green Bay ?
Answer: No
The Cowboys haven’t beat the Packers since 2008, and lost
their most recent meeting by a point last season in Jerry World. But much like
the Denver-Indy game, I don’t feel like their recent meetings will really tell
us anything about the game, mostly because Dallas
plays completely different now than they have at any point during the Romo era.
They’ve never run the ball like this, and been committed to doing it.
Prediction: Cowboys
I can’t believe I’m picking Dallas
to win this game. I really can’t. But they’ve got the makeup of a team that’s
capable of going into Lambeau and winning. Weather shouldn’t be too much of a
factor, because they’ll pound the football the entire game. Plus, they’re the
only team in the NFL that went undefeated on the road, and Rodgers’ calf injury
gives me just enough pause to think that the Cowboys might actually do this.
And, like always, the minute I declare that the Cowboys are
back, they’ll get blasted 45-7. Just watch. But if Dallas does win, and there's the inevitable shot of Jerry Jones's box, my Angry Old Man just wanted everyone to know that he'll break his TV if he sees Chris Christie's fat butt in Jerry's box. He's, in his words, is "tired of loud-mouthed, jock-sniffing politicians always hanging around sports teams!" And, solely because of that, I hope Christie is in Jerry's Box. I really do.
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