Friday, January 9, 2015

How Do You Win On The Road In The NFL Playoffs? My Divisional Round Picks



It’s Divisional Playoff Weekend in the NFL, and we’re fresh off an exhilarating set of Wild Card games that saw Arizona manage a jaw-dropping and how-is-that-even-possible 78 yards, another prime example of a “Big Game Andy” performance in Colts-Bengals, and an abysmal call in the Lions-Cowboys game that’s gotten way too much credit for the Dallas victory.

In terms of this round though, I’ve got a dirty little secret for you: one of the four road teams (Baltimore, Carolina, Dallas, and Indianapolis) will leave their friendly confines, overcome the odds (none of them are favored), and win. Seriously, It's going to happen. History is on that side, because it’s occurred at least once every year since 2005 in the Divisional Playoffs. In fact, since that season, 14 of the 36 road teams have entered this weekend and left victorious, an average of a little more than one and a half teams per year.

So who are the most likely road winners? The teams that win away from home (or win, in general) in the playoffs typically fall into a few of these categories:

  1. They’re hotter and healthier than their home counterparts
  2. They have an elite, game-changing, championship-winning skill (they’re great at rushing the passer, can control the clock with the running game, etc.), while the home team they’re facing doesn’t
  3. They’ve got the best, hottest quarterback on the field
  4. They’ve got the best coach in the game
  5. They’ve traditionally been a tough match up for the home team they’re playing

So which team traveling this weekend is most likely to win? Let’s look at the matchups.

Baltimore at New England

Hotter and Healthier
Edge: Ravens

The Patriots won three games in a row from Weeks 14-16, before losing to Buffalo in their finale, a game where they virtually rested everyone. I know I basically took a crap on everything Baltimore last week, including their less than impressive end to the season, but they looked better than anyone in last weekend’s Wild Card games, as they absolutely dismantled the Steelers, one of the hottest teams in the league. Also, keep in mind that New England hasn’t played a serious game in two weeks, which is a bigger deal than you realize. Think about this: they’ve been grinding as hard as they possibly can every week since August, only, all of the sudden, that sense of urgency was ripped right out from under them the last two weeks, because they really haven't had to prepare for, or be focused on, an opponent. It makes you wonder if they’ll have lost a little bit of an edge by kickoff. And it’s not like this would be the first time resting guys in Week 17 and then having a bye week came back to bite someone. Remember all of Peyton Manning’s early playoff exits? How many times did they have everything locked up by the final week of the season, so they rested everyone, and then had a bye in the Wild Card round, which was immediately followed by a lackluster performance against an inferior opponent in their Divisional Game? They just seemed like they'd lose their edge in those two weeks without football. Baltimore has been all about football for the entire season, and just last week, they got back their elite defensive tackle Haloti Ngata from his suspension for performance enhancing drugs.

Elite, Championship Winning Skill
Edge: Draw

Baltimore might have the best front seven in the league; New England has like a zillion strong, fast, athletic freaks, as evidenced by their complete and absolute demolition of San Diego’s offense in Week 14.

The Ravens’ weakness, their terrible secondary, is almost as debilitating as the Patriots’ lack of weapons. The Pats have one skill position player on their roster that scares me, tight end Rob Gronkowski. Besides that? There’s a lot of nobodies and people no one has ever heard of.

Best, Hottest Quarterback
Edge: Draw

Tom Brady could be the NFL MVP this season, but don’t forget that Joe Flacco, after last week’s victory, has now won SEVEN road playoff games in his career. SEVEN!!! That’s crazy, and more than all but five TEAMS in the history of the league. Flacco is money is the postseason, and it’s just another reason as to why I’m an idiot for not only picking against, but also summarily dismissing, them last week.

Best Coach
Edge: Draw

Both Bill Belichick and John Harbaugh are among the five best coaches in the NFL, though I think Belichick has probably gotten too much credit for the success of the Pats, while Harbaugh hasn’t gotten enough praise for the job he’s done in Baltimore. Plus, John has been there for all seven of Flacco’s road playoff wins. He’s got to get some credit for that right?

Has Baltimore been recently successful against New England?
Answer: Yes

Since Flacco and Harbaugh arrived in Baltimore, the Ravens are 3-4 against the Patriots, including two road playoff wins, the 2009 AFC Wild Card Round, and the 2012 AFC Championship Game. They’ve always been a tough match up for New England, and I expect the same on Saturday.

Prediction: Patriots

I think New England wins close, but it won’t be easy. I think their two week layoff is a bigger deal than anyone realizes, and I know they’re going to have an extremely difficult time keeping Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil out of Tom Brady’s face. However, unlike years’ past, the Pats can also cause Baltimore the same type of problems with pass rushers, and they have the best cornerback tandem outside of Seattle. This, since October, has consistently been the best team in the NFL, and it just feels like their year. It’ll be a great game, but the Pats will win, barely.

Carolina at Seattle

Hotter and Healthier
Edge: Seahawks

Carolina, after not winning a game for seven weeks in a row, have now ripped off five straight victories…. over New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Atlanta, and Arizona. Not exactly a Murderer’s Row, but still somewhat impressive. Seattle, on the other hand, got Bobby Wagner back and instantly won six games in a row, giving up an average of just 6.5 points a game during that stretch. I love what Carolina has done, but nobody was hotter than Seattle down the stretch.

Elite, Championship Winning Skill
Edge: Seahawks

I’m not sure what Carolina’s elite skill is exactly, and I don’t think anyone who is 7-8-1 is even capable of having one. They run the ball decently well, the defense comes and goes, and they’re pretty physical, but are they “elite” anywhere on the field? I don’t think so. Seattle’s pass rush and secondary is humming just like they were last season, and the offense is good enough, despite the fact that they’ve got the worst skill position players in the playoffs. They just need Russell Wilson to make a few plays here and there and they’ll be fine.

Best, Hottest Quarterback
Edge: Draw

I don’t think QB play will ultimately make a difference in this game, and if we’re being honest, what does Russell Wilson give you that Cam Newton can’t? I can’t think of anything. Wilson is a great athlete, but Newton is an absolute monster. He’s got Roethlisberger’s body, Michael Vick’s legs, and Aaron Rodgers’ arm, and if he ever figured out how to put it all together, he’d be really special. Plus, if these two switched places, would these teams’ records have changed at all the last three years? I feel like they wouldn’t. Both teams rely heavily on their defense and running game, and they only need their quarterback to make a few plays a game to be successful.

Best Coach
Edge: Seahawks

I don’t think either of these guys are geniuses, but Pete Carroll does have a Super Bowl ring, and Ron Rivera doesn’t. I’m not really sure how to compare these two other than that. Like a lot of NFL coaches, there’s a few smart guys (Belichick, Harbaugh), a few morons (Wade Phillips), and everyone else is somewhere in the middle. The coaching match up really only matters if you’ve got a clown like Jim Zorn going on the road to play a smart guy like Tom Coughlin.

Has Carolina been recently successful against Seattle?
Answer: Yes

These teams have played each other the last three seasons, with each game taking place in Charlotte. Seattle has won all of them, but each contest has been an all out war. Here are the scores:

2012: 16-12
2013: 12-7
2014: 13-9

Those results are really the only reason I have any hope that this game will be competitive. The Panthers are one of the few teams that can physically match up with the Seahawks, and they never back down from their challenge. Then again, they’ve never played them in Seattle, with the 12th man screaming like a bunch of nut jobs for three hours.

Prediction: Seahawks

I want this to be a close game, but it feels like it could get ugly quickly, and look like every other Seattle game the last six weeks, where the score always looks like it’s in reach, only you know it’s really not, because the Seahawk defense just keeps murdering every offensive series put forth by the opposition. This just seems like a 19-3 type of game.

Indianapolis at Denver

Hotter and Healthier
Edge: Draw

Neither of these teams exactly tore it up down the stretch, though the Broncos really haven’t impressed me since October. Indy didn’t beat a really good team all year outside two victories over Cincinnati, and Manning’s arm looks dead, and has gotten progressively worse over the season. None of these teams are really banged up, but it feels like these are the only two playoff squads that have gotten WORSE as the season went along.

Elite, Championship Winning Skill
Edge: Broncos

The Colts have the worst roster of everyone in the playoffs. Take Andrew Luck off that team and they probably win four games. Seriously. It’s terrible. The defense isn’t any good, the offensive line seems like it’s held together by clothespins, and the only thing I can compare to their running game is Lil Wayne’s musical talent (which is non-existent). It’s Luck or bust every single week for this team. That’s good enough to get to the Divisional playoffs, but I doubt it’ll ever be enough for anything more than that. At least Denver has a top three defense, and mysteriously began to run the ball effectively at the end of the season (C.J. Anderson is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, and 108 yards per contest over the Broncos’ last six games). Plus, if Manning can get the ball to them, they’ve got some of the best playmakers in the NFL.

Best, Hottest Quarterback
Edge: Colts

What Manning am I going to get? He hasn’t been able to throw the ball down the field all season, even in warm weather with no wind. Why would I trust him to be able to do that now, on a day with a high of 45 and light winds? That doesn’t sound horrible, but don’t forget that Peyton’s ball had trouble cutting through the relatively warm San Diego air in Week 15. I don’t have any doubts about Luck being able to power the football through the conditions. I can’t say that about Manning.

Best Coach
Edge: Draw

To me, their isn’t any perceptible difference between Chuck Pagano and John Fox. Both are smart guys, and I’d be happy with either of them as my head coach.

Has Indianapolis been recently successful against Denver?
Answer: Yes

These teams have met twice since Manning moved on to Denver, and Luck arrived in Indianapolis. The Colts won the match up in Lucas Oil Stadium in 2013, and Denver narrowly escaped victorious in this year’s game, which occurred all the way back in Week 1. Unlike the Baltimore-New England and Carolina-Seattle games, I don’t feel like the previous meetings between these teams will really be an indication of anything. Peyton just doesn’t look like he’s even close to being the same guy he was back in September, and because of that, this Bronco team plays and feels completely different.

Prediction: Broncos

I flipped back and forth on this game a zillion times before finally throwing my hands up in the air and siding with Denver. I just can’t see a team with Andrew Luck and a bunch of scrubs playing in the AFC Championship Game. They really need to do a better job of improving that roster that’s one Luck away from being the Tennessee Titans. Even if Manning plays poorly, the Broncos still have enough on the defensive side of the ball to give the Indy offense some problems, and the Colts’ D shouldn’t put up all that much resistance against the newfound Denver rushing attack.

Dallas at Green Bay

Hotter and Healthier
Edge: Cowboys

Dallas has won five games in a row since getting embarrassed at home by Philly on Thanksgiving. Green Bay, after winning nine out of ten games from Week 4 to Week 14, had a less than stellar finish to the season, as they got dismantled by Buffalo, and struggled more with Tampa Bay more than they should have, before knocking off Detroit in Week 17. Plus, they’re dealing with Aaron Rodgers’ calf injury, which was reported yesterday to be both a strain and tear. Not good. How much will he be affected on Sunday? I have no idea, but it certainly won’t help.

Elite, Championship Winning Skill
Edge: Cowboys

Both of these teams have great offensive lines, but Green Bay never quite figured out how to run behind it this season like Dallas did. That might be where Demarco Murray comes in, and the Pack don’t have a back anywhere close to his caliber. The Cowboys, solely on the strength of that running game, could win the Super Bowl. It controls the clock and keeps their suspect defense on the sidelines and out of harms way.

Best, Hottest Quarterback
Edge: Packers

I have a lot of respect for the way Tony Romo played this season. I never thought I’d say this, but incredibly, at some point this season, he won me over. But compared to Rodgers? Please. I’d take him even with his calf injury. How is it possible that this guy hasn’t thrown a home interception since 2012?

Best Coach
Edge: Draw (maybe)

It’s not a draw if “I’m An Idiot” Jason Garrett shows up, meaning the guy who abandons the running game after the first quarter, a common theme for Cowboy teams during his tenure. But if the other Garrett arrives in Packerland, the guy who smartly allowed his team to run the ball 508 times this season, then the coaching match up is basically a dead heat. I like Mike McCarthy, but is he any more brilliant than “I Don’t Feel Like Continuing To Stick My Head Up My Butt” Jason Garrett? I don’t think so.

Has Dallas been recently successful against Green Bay?
Answer: No

The Cowboys haven’t beat the Packers since 2008, and lost their most recent meeting by a point last season in Jerry World. But much like the Denver-Indy game, I don’t feel like their recent meetings will really tell us anything about the game, mostly because Dallas plays completely different now than they have at any point during the Romo era. They’ve never run the ball like this, and been committed to doing it.

Prediction: Cowboys

I can’t believe I’m picking Dallas to win this game. I really can’t. But they’ve got the makeup of a team that’s capable of going into Lambeau and winning. Weather shouldn’t be too much of a factor, because they’ll pound the football the entire game. Plus, they’re the only team in the NFL that went undefeated on the road, and Rodgers’ calf injury gives me just enough pause to think that the Cowboys might actually do this.

Dallas seems to have turned the corner, and are no longer, in the words of Screamin’ A. Smith, “an accident waiting to happen”. Last week’s game against the Lions illustrated this perfectly. They trailed from Detroit’s opening possession until Terrance Williams’ late TD. If this was any Cowboy team from the last 15 years, they would’ve eventually folded their tents, and gone back home with their tails tucked between their legs. But strangely, and very un-Cowboy-like, they kept fighting. The defense amazingly dug in, and Romo stepped up and made some enormous plays down the stretch. Dallas is a better team than Green Bay, and they’ll prove it on Sunday.


And, like always, the minute I declare that the Cowboys are back, they’ll get blasted 45-7. Just watch. But if Dallas does win, and there's the inevitable shot of Jerry Jones's box, my Angry Old Man just wanted everyone to know that he'll break his TV if he sees Chris Christie's fat butt in Jerry's box. He's, in his words, is "tired of loud-mouthed, jock-sniffing politicians always hanging around sports teams!" And, solely because of that, I hope Christie is in Jerry's Box. I really do. 

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