The Week in Football: Vols find their QB of the Future, Ole Miss Loses a Heart Breaker, and the NFC South is Horrible

On Saturday night, about 15 minutes after Tennessee had lost to Alabama for the 8^th straight year, my Angry Old Man called me. And he did exactly what I expected him to do, which was yell for about 5 minutes. He, despite being very angry, has been a very ardent and steadfast Butch Jones supporter since his introductory press conference. His only concern has been Butch’s repeated decision to, game after game after game, punt on 4^th down and short, instead of going for it. His frustration finally boiled over, as Butch punted on a 4^th and 1 early in the game, followed by him settling for a field goal after allowing the final 30 seconds to run off the clock in the first half, rather than allowing Josh Dobbs and the offense to take a few shots into the end zone. The following conversation occurred:

 

“They’re overmatched in every single game! What do they have to lose?! Why not take a few shots, and go for it! Steve Spurrier knew that the Gamecocks were overmatched against Auburn, so he went for 6 times on fourth down tonight! Why is Butch so conservative? They aren’t going to beat anyone unless he starts to take some chances! And why hasn’t Josh Dobbs been playing? He was amazing! Once he came in the game, it completely and totally changed the momentum and feel in that stadium. The offensive line started playing better, and the offense actually started to put some drives together. Why have they continued to trot out Nathan Peterman, the worst quarterback in the history of the program, when they have this guy? What have they been missing in practice? Butch is either dumb or ignorant, and honestly, I’m not sure what’s worse. He actually reminds me a lot of you, son! Except I don’t have any questions about that, because I already know you’re an idiot! Goodbye!”

 

And then he hung up the phone. Despite being angry, he did make some good points, ones that I agree with. The Vols are going to be overmatched in every single game against top level competition. They were overmatched against Oregon last year, Oklahoma this year, Ole Miss last weekend, and Alabama every year. Butch should know this going into every single one of these games. Since that’s the case, and the goal of the game is to win, why not take some chances, particularly when the only way they can really win is if they catch some lucky breaks? So when they have a 4^th and 2 at about midfield early in the game, why not go for it? What do they have to lose, they’re Tennessee and they’re supposed to get blown out. So what if it doesn’t work out? They’re in the exact same situation they have been in almost every game, which is the loser. Take some shots, go out on a limb, and try to make something happen. What’s wrong with doing that? That, more than anything, has annoyed me to no end about Butch’s first 20 games in Knoxville. I love the recruiting, I like the way he deals with the media, and I’m really happy he’s embraced the Vol traditions. But they’ve got to take some more chances. They’ve got to try and change their own luck.

 

Also, seriously, why hasn’t Dobbs been playing? To say he played great would be an understatement. He was the best player on the field as soon as he entered into the game, as Amari Cooper had already done most of his damage by that point. What have they been missing in practice? Have they been watching Dobbs through blinders, and Peterman through rose-colored glasses? I have no idea, though honestly, all that really matters is that Dobbs got his opportunity, and he shined. It appears that the Vols have found their QB of the future (something I was extremely concerned about), as well as maybe a few more wins this season. I was worried about Tennessee going 4-8 and having the worst record in the history of the program this year, but with Dobbs at the helm, I feel like 6-6 and a bowl game aren’t completely unrealistic. They’ve got 4 games left (at South Carolina, home against Vanderbilt and Missouri, and at Kentucky). I don’t trust any of those teams to consistently show up week to week and be competitive. South Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the country, Missouri couldn’t score on the worst 8 year old flag football team ever assembled, Vanderbilt has returned to its pre-James Franklin self, and Kentucky followed up a 41-3 thrashing by LSU with one of their best games of the year, a 45-31 loss to the #1 team in the country, Mississippi State. Can the Vols win 3 out of 4? We’ll see.

 

Les Miles is the Most Underrated Coach in the Country

 

For all the talk about him being a crazy stooge, and (rightfully) earning the nickname “The Mad Hatter” (I mean, seriously this guy eats grass and claps like this), I think it’s been lost in the shuffle and madness that this guy is an awesome coach, and someone I’d love to have in charge of a program I root for. Consider this: With the Tigers’ win on Saturday night, Miles moved to 24-23 at LSU in games in which he was trailing entering the 4^th quarter. For comparison, the Tigers are the only program above .500 in those scenarios since 2005 (Miles’ first year in Baton Rouge). That stat is incredible, and it’s just one of many reasons why I love The Mad Hatter, and think he’d be a slam dunk at Michigan if he was offered and accepted the job. LSU better be thankful for what they have in Miles, because it’s going to be extremely difficult to replace him. This is a guy that’s won a national title, 2 SEC titles, and gone 102-26 since he arrived there. And he’s done all that in what has been a much tougher SEC West. Good luck duplicating that level of success with your next hire.

 

Ole Miss pulled a Clemson on Saturday night

 

Meaning they, despite having all the odds continuously stacked in their favor throughout the entire night, found a way to lose, just like Clemson has and does at least once a year. That already happened this season in the FSU game, when the Seminoles just kept giving the Tigers chances that they weren’t able to capitalize on. And much like Clemson, it was inexplicable how Ole Miss lost that game. They were gift-wrapped a horrible LSU offense that was in the midst of one of its worst performances of the season (4 turnovers, 142 passing yards, and 10 points), and yet, the Rebels were abysmal all night, and only managed to score 7 points. And what was up with them at the end of the game? My first question is, how is it possible that you don’t get your kicker out there to snap the ball and avoid a soul-crushing five yard delay of game penalty? And second, once that’s happened, how in the world do you send the offense back out there, only to have your quarterback roll to his left, bomb it down the field, and throw a game ending interception? Honestly, I’m not sure who I should blame more, Hugh Freeze or Bo Wallace. Obviously Bo made a terrible throw, but what’s the thinking there? That play has a low probability of success, you have a quarterback who’s had a propensity to make poor decisions with the football, and if the play is unsuccessful, you haven’t gotten any closer to kicking that game-tying field goal, which was the point of putting the offense back on the field in the first place. There were nine seconds left. Why not try a safe throw, something that’s toward the sidelines? Regardless, the real sin was not getting the kicker out there fast enough to try a game tying 42 yard field goal. There’s just no way that should ever happen. That simple mistake, followed by Bo’s terrible throw, may have cost the Rebels a shot at the 4 team playoff, with what looks like might be their best team since the ‘60s. And they did it the most painful, heart-breaking, and Clemson way possible.

 

The Big 12 is a Quagmire

 

This conference is a mess at the top, with 6 teams still realistically alive to win the league. Kansas State is the only undefeated team in conference (at 4-0), but Baylor, TCU, and West Virginia all only have one conference loss, and Oklahoma State and Oklahoma only have two. It’ll be tough for K-State, who still has games left at TCU, at West Virginia, and at Baylor. OK State and Oklahoma might have too many teams to climb over, though the Sooners have a relatively easy schedule, with their toughest game being at home against Baylor on November 8^th. Honestly, I believe West Virginia is the favorite, only because they have the easiest remaining schedule. They get TCU at home this week, which will more than likely be a 63-60 type of game, as well the aforementioned K-State game on November 20^th. Plus, they have that crucial victory and tiebreaker over Baylor, who I think has the best shot to win out besides the Mountaineers. Could Dana Holgorsen and his mullet really win the Big 12? They’ve got the easiest road. Then again, wouldn’t it be the most West Virginia thing possible to win their next three games, only to travel to Iowa State on their last game of the season, lay an egg, play horribly, and lose, allowing another school to win the conference? This wouldn’t be the first time something like this happened to them; remember in 2007, when all WVU needed to do was beat Pittsburgh to clinch a berth in the BCS Title Game, except they played terrible and lost? I do. We’ll see how the rest of the season plays out.

 

My 4 Team Playoff

 

With the Ole Miss loss, my 4 team playoff will see a bit of a shake up this week (I had the Rebels at #2).

 

1. Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have done nothing yet to drop out of the top spot. Dak Prescott was in a walking boot after the game on Saturday, but he said it was more precautionary than anything. MSU better hope it is, because they still have some tough games left on the schedule, including games at Alabama on November 15^th and the Egg Bowl, at Ole Miss, on November 29^th.
2. Florida State. The Seminoles move up a spot despite not playing a game this week. I still don’t think FSU is a great team, but it won’t matter if they go undefeated, which is entirely possible, considering how weak the ACC is. Keep an eye on their game this week though, the Thursday night contest at Louisville. That’s going to be a really tough game, one the ‘Noles could easily lose.
3. Alabama. Yes, yes, I know, the Tide lost to Ole Miss this year. And while I care, I ultimately don’t think it will matter all that much at the end of the year, and particularly not to the selection committee this week, when they reveal their 4 team playoff for the first time. I like the way the Bama offense has looked the last two weeks, and the defense is starting to look like a typical Saban unit on that side of the ball. That game at LSU in two weeks will be an absolute slugfest, and one that will show us just how legitimate the Tide offense actually is.
4. Oregon. The Ducks debut in my top 4, though I don’t think they’ll be there at the end of the year. I just think it’s going to be difficult for them to get through that Stanford game this week, just because I think the Cardinal have that match up figured out. But if they do win, their game the next week at Utah should be quite challenging. Regardless, they’ve been the most impressive team in that conference thus far. That offense is executing at it’s typical rate, and Marcus Mariota (2,283 yards, 24 passing touchdowns, 1 pick) would get my Heisman vote if I had one.

 

Denver is a Juggernaut

 

I’m not going to do NFL power rankings this week, but if I did, just know that I’d put the Broncos at number 1. The only thing that affected them on Thursday night against San Diego was their scoreboard operator. They still don’t run the ball well (they’re 20^th in yards per game), but it hasn’t really mattered. Manning has been almost as amazing as he was last year (69 completion percentage, 2,134 yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 3 picks), and that defense has an edge and physicality that they lacked last year. Really, there won’t be any excuses for them if they don’t win the Super Bowl this season. They’ve got the best group of receivers in the league (Emmanuel Sanders had 3 touchdowns and 120 yards on Thursday, and he’s probably their 4^th best guy), they’ve got great pass rushers (Von Miller and Demarcus Ware), and they only allow 72.4 yards per game on the ground, the best in the NFL. It’s time for them to put it all together in the playoffs.

 

The Winner of the NFC South Clinches an Automatic Berth to the Toilet Bowl

 

How is it possible that the Thursday game between the 3-4-1 Carolina Panthers and the 3-4 New Orleans Saints is for the division lead? Because this division sucks. Carolina hasn’t been impressive since Week 2, and New Orleans finally played like we expected them to last night, as they dominated Green Bay. But make no mistake, this is still a mediocre Saints team. Unfortunately, it’s probably going to come down to one of these two, because the rest of the division is even worse. The 1-6 Buccaneers are technically still alive, though we all know that really isn’t true. And I’m not sure what the heck Atlanta is doing. Blowing a 21 point halftime lead to Detroit in London was such a typical Dirty Bird thing to do. It’s amazing to me that since their NFC Championship Game loss to 49ers two years ago, the Falcons are 6-18. 6-18! I’d let my brother (a huge Falcons fan) write this paragraph, but he’d end up just typing everything in all caps LIKE THIS, start screaming about starting a website called firemikesmith.com, begin to knock back a few too many adult beverages, and then, eventually, follow all that up by becoming so exasperated that he’d start to sob uncontrollably. You don’t want that, and I don’t want that, so let’s just move on.

 

New England Muzzled the Bears

 

And they were dominant. Tom Brady was great all day (30-35, 354 yards, 5 TDs, no picks), and Rob Gronkowski played his best game of the year (9 catches, 149 yards, 3 TDs), and looked like Gronk again for the first time since he tore his ACL last year against Cleveland. The Pats, despite all their injuries and limitations on offense, have once again figured out how to string some wins together during the regular season, as they moved to 6-2. We’ll see them in the playoffs again, where they’ll once again fall short of the ultimate prize, the Lombardi Trophy, because they really don’t have any weapons on the outside, as well as the fact that their defense has more injuries than a bus crash. The real story here is the continuous and curious descent of the Bears, who, despite being extremely talented, find themselves at 3-5 at the half way point of the season. Jay Cutler has been getting a lot of the blame (he’s thrown 8 picks), but he does have 17 TDs and 2,063 yards passing. Couldn’t I argue that defense has been way worse, and should get most of the blame? For all the “improvements” they made on that side of the ball in the offseason, it’s telling that they have the 4^th worst scoring defense (they give up on average 27.8 points per game), and they allowed a franchise record 38 points at halftime. How is that Cutler’s fault? What can he do about that? Obviously he’s deserving of some blame for their start, as is everyone in that locker room, but they need, more than anything, a resurgence on the defensive side of the ball, or they’re done. Honestly though, it’s probably too late.

 

Why aren’t we paying attention to the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Bills?

 

I should be asking myself the same question, because last week, when I did my power rankings, I left out all three of these teams. In fact, I didn’t even consider any of them for the top 10, proving once again that I’m an idiot. Oh well. It happens. The Chiefs, besides their Week 1 travesty against the Titans, have been competitive in every game, including a 7 point loss (where they had the ball late driving for the tying score) against Denver, a dominating win over the Patriots, and a win last week over the Bolts in San Diego. Plus, they took care of business this week against the Rams, scoring 34 unanswered points, moving them to 4-3. The Dolphins, also 4-3, have probably been the least impressive of these three teams, but I like the way Ryan Tannehill has thrown the ball the last few weeks. He may, shockingly, end up being a really good NFL quarterback. And lastly, the Bills, who have been the biggest surprise of the NFL season so far. I mean, they’ve started EJ Manuel and Kyle Orton at quarterback every game and have somehow found a way to be 5-3. Their defensive line is awesome, and they absolutely whooped the Jets in the trenches for the entire game yesterday. Wouldn’t it be amazing if two of these teams made the playoffs? I don’t expect it to happen, because it’s in Miami’s character to completely come apart, and I think the Chiefs will eventually fold because the schedule is brutal (they’ve got games left against Seattle, Denver, and San Diego, as well as games on the road at Arizona and Pittsburgh), which leaves us with Buffalo. They’ve got three losable games in the last four weeks (at Denver, home against Green Bay, and at New England), and after their bye week this week, a game at home against the Chiefs followed by a game in Miami. So what? They’re better than the Chiefs and Dolphins, and will prove it. Then they’ll easily dispatch the Jets and Browns, and roll into Denver, with guns blazing, puffing their chest out a little bit, because they’re 9-3, only to be absolutely annihilated by the Bronco buzz saw. Heck, they’ll probably be on the wrong side in all three of those games at the end and finish 10-6, which will allow them to, amazingly, back into the playoffs. Yes, you heard it correctly, the Buffalo Bills will be playing a meaningful game in January this season. I know, it feels weird just reading that out loud. Then again, I am betting on Kyle Orton to continue to play well, as well as an organization that’s spent the last 15 years inventing new ways to lose (Thinking…..). Naw, I’ll stick with it. And when it blows up in my face after they lose their next two games, I can shake my head in disgust, and remember to never believe in a Kyle Orton quarterbacked team again.

 

As always, enjoy Monday Night Football this evening. Also, if you love basketball, keep an eye out for my NBA preview and prediction column, which will be coming out tomorrow, because it will be awesome. And watch the World Series. Game 6 is tomorrow night. It’s been really compelling television (I know, I’m probably the first person to write that sentence since the 1950s, but still, it has been). And above all, have a nice week. You deserve it.