Tennessee Will End the Florida's Nine Year Reign of Terror, plus College and NFL Game Picks

Football has once again returned to our lives for another weekend. In fact, I’m glad that we are in the month of October. Not only am I ready for some fall weather, but October is also one of, if not the best month in sports. Think about it. College football and the NFL are in full swing, the drama of the baseball playoffs occur throughout this entire month, and the NBA regular season begins just before Halloween. October is also the only month where all 4 of the major sports can have games on the same day. Point being, there’s a lot to watch this month. I know I’ll enjoy it.

 

Now, on to the games….

 

College Football

 

This is truly the first big time weekend in the college football season. There are 4 really interesting games in the SEC alone. You know it’s a huge weekend for the conference when Florida-Tennessee, one of the most intense and competitive rivalries in college football, is the noon SEC Network game.

 

#14 Stanford over #9 Notre Dame

 

Not only do I think Stanford is better, and therefore will win, but I’m also going to be rooting hard for them, because if the Fighting Irish win, the national media will probably act like they beat ’85 Bears. Hopefully, they won’t get that opportunity. Why is Notre Dame even ranked this high? Who have they beaten? Michigan, the same team that got destroyed by Utah and Minnesota? Notre Dame even struggled with Syracuse a little bit last Saturday night. Stanford is one of the most underrated teams in the country, and they’ve got the best scoring defense in college football (6.5 points per game). This will be a low scoring game, because the Cardinal struggle to put points on the board, but I still expect them to win by double digits. And hopefully Stanford will start to get some love in the polls after this one, because there’s no way they aren’t one of the ten best teams in college football.

 

#10 Michigan State over #19 Nebraska

 

This was the toughest call of the weekend for me. Amir Abdullah has been a beast all year for the Cornhuskers (3 games over 200 yards rushing so far this year), and I actually think Nebraska, who is in this constant cycle of losing 4 games every year, might actually be pretty good this year. I picked the Spartans to win the Big 10 at the beginning of the year, and I feel like a lot of people are still down on them because of they got blown out by Oregon. They were torched that night, but I still think their defense is pretty good, and when in doubt, I always side with the home team, particularly in college. Sparty wins close.

 

Now, onto the biggest day in the history of the state of Mississippi. From all accounts, people are going nuts down there. College Gameday will be at The Grove at Ole Miss for the first time ever, which seems to have caused everything else in that society to stop until Saturday has come and gone. Unfortunately, it’s going to be a disappointment. All emergency medical personnel in that state will need to be standing by.

 

#3 Alabama over #11 Ole Miss

 

This game will be a blowout. I know Ole Miss has an excellent defense, and they’ve paid, I mean somehow “recruited” a bunch of great athletes to come to their school. No matter. Bo Wallace still plays quarterback for the Rebels, and he reminds me of Tony Romo, because he has a propensity to make terrible, mind-numbing decisions with the football, including throwing back-breaking and heart-wrenching interceptions. I don’t expect Ole Miss to be able to score many points, or even really be able to move the ball all that much, which will give Bama a lot of short fields, enabling the Crimson Tide to neutralize the Ole Miss defense a little bit. Much like the Florida game two weeks ago, I expect Alabama to win by AT LEAST 17 points.

 

#6 Texas A&M over #12 Mississippi State

 

This will be an interesting quarterback duel (Kenny Hill vs. Dak Prescott), and I don’t expect the defenses to have much of a shot of slowing down the offenses. Both these teams can put up points, but I feel like the Aggies have better offensive personnel, and will be able to ultimately outscore MSU. I’ll probably be frustrated watching this game, because I know going into it that neither of the defenses are going to be able to make the offenses work for their points. They’ll be lots of missed tackles, receivers running wide open down the middle of the field, and gaping holes for the running backs. But Texas A&M is better, and they’ll win on Saturday.

 

#5 Auburn over #15 LSU

 

I hate picking against LSU, particularly in a big game, just because they’re a step up program that almost always seems to win or play really well in big games (except the LSU-Bama rematch in the 2011 national title game), but I can’t side with them this week. I just don’t trust a freshman quarterback (which LSU will have) on the road, in a hostile environment, against a very good SEC team. In Auburn’s first test of the season, at Kansas State about two weeks ago, the Tigers were outplayed the whole night, and they really struggled to consistently drive the ball down the field like they did all of last year. However, they somehow found a way to win. I think they’ll play much better this week. If Mississippi State’s offense can overpower LSU, I think Auburn will be able to as well.

 

Now, onto the most important game of the week, Florida at Tennessee. I was 11 years old, in 2004, the last time the Vols beat the Gators. There have been a lot of disappointments since then, and a lot of pain after those games. It sucks losing 9 straight years to a team you hate. In 2005, the Vols, who were highly ranked in the preseason, went down to the Swamp and lost 16-7, which showed everybody that maybe there were going to be some problems (particularly offensively) for this team. They ended up going 5-6 that year, including an embarrassing loss to Vanderbilt. In 2006, the Vols played the favored Gators really tough throughout the entire game, yet came up just short, losing 21-20. What a crushing loss. One point? I remember how gutty Erik Ainge was that game, and how I believed that they were going to score late and win. But they didn't. They got blown out in 2007 and 2008. In 2009, Kiffin played not to get beat down, and while the Vols kept it close and only lost 23-13, it never really felt like they were in the game. Dooley lost by double digits his first two years, yet had the lead through 40 minutes during his third try against the Gators, before things completely came apart, the Gators ran off 24 straight points, and the Vols ended up getting destroyed. I never let Dooley trick me again after that. And now we arrive at last year, which will forever be known as the Nathan Peterman game. By all accounts, Peterman (much like on Saturday against Georgia) played the worst half of football at the quarterback position in the history of the program. If anybody else had started for the Vols that Saturday, including a blind man, Tennessee would’ve won that game. I’m sure of it. Florida played badly as well in the first half, yet the Vols just weren’t able to capitalize. Last year should’ve been the year that the streak ended. Instead, we’ll have to settle for Saturday. Tennessee will win by double digits tomorrow. Florida isn't a good team, and Tennessee looks like they're starting to get things turned in the right direction. They’ve had two disappointing losses this year (Oklahoma and Georgia), but they’ve shown us something that Dooley’s teams never did. They’ve shown us heart, a will to win, and the desire to not be embarrassed every week. They’ve shown pride. Plus, they’re really talented. Justin Worley is a solid SEC quarterback, and they’ve got playmakers on both sides of the ball. The Vols will take care of business this Saturday, and for the first time in 9 years, Tennessee fans will be satisfied when the clock hits triple zeroes.

 

The NFL

 

This week, rather than run through all the games, I’ve decided to just focus on a few of the most interesting contests this weekend. I’ll put the rest of my Week 5 picks at the bottom.

 

Bengals over Pats

 

Are the Patriots done? Has their window finally shut? I say no, just because of the division they’re in. They could go 9-7 and still win the AFC East, because the Dolphins, Bills, and Jets all have their own issues (mostly at the quarterback position). I’ve said for years now that the Pats’ biggest problem (and the reason they weren’t winning Super Bowls) is that they don’t have any weapons on the outside that scare anybody. Every single drive is full of dinks and dunks down the field. All of Brady’s throws are underneath, or inside of 15 yards. They don’t have any deep threats, like a Randy Moss type of guy, someone who is capable of taking the top off the defense. It really helps an offense when you can have a couple of 30 yard pass completions a game, or a long 60 yard touchdown pass every once in a while. Their offense is so limited because they can’t do this. They never have any big plays. It’s hard for an offense to put together 12 and 15 play drives every single time. It helps so much when your offense is able to have a few quick drives. They never have those quick drives, and that’s why it’s so hard for them to score a lot of points. Brady is 37 years old now, and their offensive personnel are worse than ever. The Bengals have one of the best defenses in the league (they only give up 11 points a game), and I wouldn’t be shocked if they held New England to less than 10 points. That offensive line is in shambles, they can’t run the ball, and they’ve got no elite skill position players. They’re depending solely on Brady’s 37 year old body, and Bill Belichick’s coaching brilliance to get it done for them. It won’t be good enough this week. Cincinnati will win by at least two touchdowns on Sunday night.

 

Bears over Panthers

 

This game is really important for both of these squads, two teams that are reeling after losses last week. The loser will drop to 2-3. Carolina is so limited offensively, there’s great potential for them to show up and score 10 points. Because of that, I can’t pick them. They, much like the Patriots, really don’t have any weapons on offense, with the exception of Kelvin Benjamin, though he’s not ready to be a franchise wideout just yet. Plus, their offensive line has struggled mightily to give Cam Newton any time to throw. The Bears sucked on offense in the second half last week, but I’ve got so much respect for Mark Trestman as an offensive mind that I can’t see that happening again. They’ll score at least three touchdowns this week, and hold that limited Carolina offense in check. Chicago will move to 3-2.

 

Broncos over Cardinals

 

This is the best NFL game of the weekend. Arizona’s defense is exceptional, as they haven’t given up any points in the 4^th quarter this year. Denver struggles to run the ball (only 75.3 yards per game), but they’ve got Peyton Manning under center for them, which means they’ll be able to move the ball no matter what. Well, except in last year’s Super Bowl. This game basically comes down to this: I don’t trust Drew Stanton as the long term answer at quarterback. He’s played well in the two games he’s started, but he’s still Drew Stanton. There’s a reason he backed up Carson Palmer, a middle of the road starter, at the beginning of this year. At what point does Stanton have a 3 pick game where he completes less than 50% of his passes, and has about 150 passing yards? I feel like that could happen at any time. I’m still of the opinion that this team will be better off long term once they get Palmer back. They need that stabilizing force at the quarterback position, someone who will be consistently better than average, because that defense makes them a Super Bowl contender. But they’ll get their first loss of the season this week. Denver is just better overall, and they’re at home.

 

Other NFL Picks

 

Lions over Bills

Colts over Ravens

Browns over Titans

Cowboys over Texans

Steelers over Jaguars

Saints over Bucs

Falcons over Giants

Eagles over Rams

49ers over Chiefs

Chargers over Jets

Seahawks over Redskins

 

So enjoy football this weekend. You’ve worked hard this week, and you deserve it.