Jameis Winston Drama, Another Compelling Week in the NFL, and Game Picks

Football is here again, and hopefully ESPN and all the other media outlets will start talking about actual games again, though I doubt they will. Nevertheless, I promise that this post will be a Ray Rice/Adrian Peterson/Jonathan Dwyer/the NFL is doomed/every single NFL player is a goon who beats his wife or children/hand-wringing free zone. I’m not saying that these stories weren’t horrible, or didn’t deserve some coverage. But I literally haven’t been able to watch ESPN this week without having to hear every 5 seconds about Adrian Peterson. Can we not just let these stories breathe and play out? We don’t have to beat them to death. ESPN pretty much has a monopoly on sports TV and radio (Fox Sports 1, NBC Sports Network and others have minor audiences compared to them). They could literally talk about whatever they wanted to, but instead they decided to constantly ram these same stories down everyone’s throat. We’re so caught up in political correctness and all of this crap. I don’t tune into ESPN or NFL pre-game shows to hear the political talking point of the week. I just want to hear people talking about games.

 

Now, onto the real reason we like talking about sports, the games….

 

College Football

 

Once again, college football has produced another largely uninteresting weekend, though there are a few more high profile games than last week. I’m going to pick five games this week, but I’ll focus on two.

 

1. Alabama will beat Florida this week by AT LEAST 17 points. Bama’s at home, they’ve got better playmakers, and they’re better in the trenches. I don’t love Blake Sims, but I like him better than I like how Florida needed triple overtime to beat Kentucky, a game that they actually should have lost. I never thought this game was going to be close, and I expect Bama to punch them in the mouth early and continue to dominate them. 17 points might be low. 21 or 24 points might be more appropriate. The Crimson Tide haven’t played a great game yet this year. This will be the week.
2. FSU-Clemson is also one of the biggest games of the weekend, but this one feels like a blowout as well. I realize the Seminoles will be without Jameis Winston in the first half, so they’ll probably be really conservative in the first half. Clemson’s defense is terrible, but with FSU not hitting the gas pedal in the first half, I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s 10-7 in the first half. However, when Jameis does step foot on the field in the second half, I expect FSU to open it up, and for the game to get ugly quickly. The Seminoles are going to win by at least 17 points as well. I really don’t think the Tigers are that good. Bad defense, new quarterback, and a late night road game against a better team? It doesn’t look good for them. FSU wins big.
3. Speaking of this game, is their a bigger clown in college football than Jameis Winston? Obviously I don’t think standing on a table at the student union building and yelling “an obscene phrase” is the worst thing in the world, but it’s just typical Jameis. This is the same guy who walked out of a Tallahassee supermarket with about 30 dollars worth of crab legs because he forgot that he had to pay for them. Or something like that. He’s also the guy who the Tallahassee police never questioned even though he was the prime suspect in a rape, basically because he didn’t want to talk to them. Jameis and I are about the same age, and I can’t ever envision a scenario where I would stand on a table and curse publicly in a very loud voice. I also can’t see a time where I would ever forget to pay for groceries. And I certainly can’t foresee a time when every single adult around me would coddle me my entire life, continue to make excuses for me, and most alarming, allow me to not be questioned by the police. Honestly, that’s really his biggest problem. Winston is a knucklehead because he’s able to be one. He knows he’ll have adults saying, “Oh, he just a kid, it’s no big deal, give him another chance”. He’s had that his whole life, simply because he’s a great athlete. He’s even had law enforcement take his side. During his rape investigation, an officer allegedly asked the accuser if she was sure that she wanted to go through with all of this, because “Tallahassee is a big football town”. And State Attorney Willie Meggs turned the press conference to announce that Winston would not be charged with rape into a big yuck-it-up-fest, as he was chuckling and smiling the entire time. He looked like he was opening for Kevin Hart’s new comedy special, instead of dealing with what I thought was actually a serious matter. I guess I missed that. So I’m not mad a Jameis. He’s made a lot of dumb choices, but it’s hard not to be when every adult, including law enforcement, enables you to do whatever you want. He knows, even if it’s subconsciously, that they’ll make excuses for him, and he won’t really get in trouble. Suspending someone for a half is a joke. That’s like making a middle school kid write “I will not chew gum in class” 100 times. It’s annoying, and maybe my hand hurts a little bit afterwards, but you know what? Gum is still very flavorful, I love it, and I’d rather chew gum, get caught again, and have to write this again than never chew gum in class again. It doesn’t teach me anything. And that’s where Jameis is. He’ll do something dumb, he’ll get a slap on the wrist, and then he’ll go out there and do his thing again. And that’s a shame. Eventually though, there won’t be any adults to make excuses for him. Eventually, he’ll have to grow up. And eventually, when he does do something stupid, he’ll have to speak to the police.

 

Other game picks:

Oklahoma over West Virginia

Nebraska over Miami

LSU over Mississippi State

 

The NFL

 

Unlike college football, the NFL actually gives its fans plenty of compelling games every week. So in honor of that, I’ll run through every game this week and give my pick. Also, just so you know, I had Atlanta over Tampa Bay last night. So I’m off to a stellar 1-0 start. We’ll see what happens this week.

 

Chargers over Bills

Yes, I realize the Chargers are flying across the country to play a game starting at 1 PM Eastern Time, which is normally about as tough for West Coast teams as it is for me to enjoy Keeping up with the Kardashians. I don’t care. I love the Chargers this week. They’re just better. Phil Rivers is one of the best five quarterbacks in the NFL, their defense is very good, and they’re playing the Bills, a team I’m still skeptical about. EJ Manuel has been ok, but he hasn’t played a defense as good as San Diego’s yet this year. The Bolts may start out slow, but they’ll wake up in the second quarter and take care of business.

 

Browns over Ravens

The Browns will take care of business at home this week. I know, I know, it’s Cleveland, but Brian Hoyer actually looks like a serviceable quarterback (426 yards, 2 passing TDs, no picks this year), and the defense is solid. I get that Baltimore is pretty good in the front seven, but I feel like Joe Flacco is in for a three interception game with like 175 passing yards at some point. This will be the week. Flacco won’t be able to constantly force the ball to Steve Smith Sr. (seriously, go look at his jersey, that’s what he is now going by) because Joe Haden, one of the best and most underrated corners in the league, will be covering him. It will be an ugly game, but Cleveland will gut it out and win like 14-12 or something like that.

 

Bengals over Titans

I haven’t written about Cincinnati yet, but I actually really like their team. They’ve got a great defense, a solid offensive line, and plenty of playmakers. I don’t love Andy Dalton, but this isn’t the playoffs. He’s fine in the regular season. The Titans looked pretty good in week 1 when they destroyed Kansas City, but they followed that up with a disappointing showing against Dallas. I’m a Jake Locker fan, but he’s going to struggle this week. The Bengals are one of the three best teams in the league, and they’ll look like it this week.

 

Cowboys over Rams

This was one of my toughest calls this week. Dallas has actually decided to run the ball this year, and that’s smart, because the Cowboys are 12-1 when DeMarco Murray gets 20 or more touches. He leads the league in rushing, and I think Dallas has realized, “Maybe we should start running the ball instead of allowing our inconsistent and heartbreaking quarterback to throw 40-50 times a game”. Then again, it is the Cowboys. Every time we think they’ve turned the corner, they find a way to lose in the most disappointing and soul-crushing fashion. And then I start looking at this Rams team; they have a physical, hard hitting defense, and maybe Austin Davis isn’t totally awful. They won a road game last week (yes, I realize it was at Tampa Bay, but still). I could totally see Tony Romo going out there and throwing 3 or 4 completely debilitating interceptions, only St. Louis can barely capitalize, because their offense sucks. Dallas then gets the ball back trailing like 9-7, and as they begin to drive down the field, Romo makes another terrible throw that’s picked off, killing their last chance, as well as destroying the collective will of every Cowboys’ fan. Thinking…. Why don’t we just do this?

 

Rams over Cowboys

For all the reasons I just mentioned. It’s the Cowboys. It’s what they do. They lose games like this. The Rams are at home, and they’ll find a way to gut this one out, though it will be ugly.

 

Lions over Packers

Green Bay is Aaron Rodgers or bust. He covers up so many holes for them. They don’t run the ball well, and their defense can’t stop anyone. Green Bay won last week against the Jets solely because Rodgers just turned it on and made so many great plays. Oh yeah, and because Marty Mornhinweg called that timeout. Now I don’t love the Lions either, but their roster is better. The defense is competent, and Green Bay has no one to contend with Megatron, who I expect to have a huge game this week. I don’t completely trust Matt Stafford, but he’ll play well enough this week for Detroit to get the win.

 

Saints over Vikings

I’ve officially sold all my stock in the Vikings. I’m done. They’re done offensively without Adrian Peterson. Matt Cassel was Ryan Leaf/Jamarcus Russell level bad last week. I wouldn’t be shocked if they throw Teddy Bridgewater out there in this game, particularly if it gets ugly quickly, which I think it will. New Orleans is at home for the first time this year, they’re angry and motivated after starting 0-2. Plus, I just can’t see a scenario where the Saints are 0-3. Drew Brees plays quarterback for them. They won’t be 0-3. New Orleans will win big this week.

 

Texans over Giants

I’m not a huge fan of the Texans, and I think they’re the most obvious candidate to be this year’s Chiefs, a team that doesn’t really have a tough schedule, which will enable them to be 8-1 after 9 games. However, the Giants are one of those bad teams on their schedule. The Giants’ defense is abysmal, and Eli Manning is no longer an elite quarterback. He looks particularly bad when he has pressure in his face, and Houston can consistently get that because they have a monster pass rusher in JJ Watt. Could one of the Manning brothers actually quarterback a team that finished with the worst record in the league? It’s in play.

 

Colts over Jaguars

If the Giants aren’t the worst team in the league, it’s the Jaguars. Also, much like the Saints and Drew Brees, the Colts and Andrew Luck are not starting the season 0-3. The Colts can’t rush the passer, and they won’t be able to fix that problem this year because Robert Mathis is out for the year. That’s one of the reasons that I don’t think Indy is a serious threat in the AFC, and why they couldn’t do anything to slow down the Eagles last week. But that won’t matter this week. Indy will win big.

 

Pats over Raiders

If the Giants or Jaguars aren’t the worst team in the league, then it’s definitely the Raiders. They’ve been one of the worst franchises in sports the last decade, and now, they’re just an old, bad team. This will be a beat down, much like last week’s Pats-Vikings game. Honestly, I have no idea what the plan is in Oakland. They drafted Derek Carr, which I guess is something, but they continue to trade away draft picks for old veteran players, and they continue to sign old, past their prime, beat up vets. They used to have this excuse, “Al Davis runs this team, and he’s just out of touch with the current state of the league, because he’s just an old man who can’t pay attention and think critically like he used to. This is the same guy, who at the introductory press conference for then new head coach Lane Kiffin, referred to him as ‘Lance Kiffin’. But as soon as he’s gone, we’ll be able to compete”. Well Al hasn’t been running this team for a while now, and they are still abysmal, and they’re still making the same old mistakes as before. They aren’t competing with New England this week, and they won’t compete this year, or for years to come.

 

Eagles over Redskins

I never like or am glad when players get hurt, but the RG3 injury might be the best thing that could ever happen to the Redskins. If Washington is going to push this whole pocket passer thing, then Kirk Cousins is clearly the guy. He’s way more comfortable there. Plus, I have my doubts that RG3 will ever be able to stay healthy. He’s just three years in, yet he’s already torn his ACL and dislocated his ankle. Those are two pretty serious injuries, and you can’t build your team around a guy who can’t stay healthy. I expect Washington to lose this week, just because Philly has the most explosive and unique offense in the league. But going forward, I think Cousins will play very well, and when RG3 is finally healthy, Cousins will keep the job. But Cousins’ presence won’t matter this week. The Eagles will win.

 

49ers over Cardinals

This was another tough one for me. I’m selling stock on the 49ers as well, just because Colin Kaepernick is a modern day incarnation of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. I literally don’t know what I’m getting from him week to week. In Week 1, he looked awesome. In Week 2, he was terrible, throwing three picks and fumbling once. He literally cost them the game with his play. His turnovers gave the Bears so many short fields. Then again, if I pick Arizona, I’m going with Drew Stanton, who made the Giants’ defense look semi-competent. This will be an ugly, physical game, one that I’ll actually really enjoy, because I love defensive slugfests, but the Niners have more and better playmakers on the side of the ball. Plus, San Fran is 9-2 in the Jim Harbaugh era after a loss. I think they’ll find a way to squeak this one out, but it will be close throughout.

 

Dolphins over Chiefs

Kansas City looked pretty impressive against Denver last week, particularly in the second half, despite the fact that they played without Jamal Charles. We’ll see how effective Charles can be this week with that ankle injury, but even if he is 100%, I still like Miami. They looked bad last week against Buffalo, but they’re at home, and Andy Reid always has one clock management screw up every few weeks that will end up costing his team. Plus, I still think the Dolphins are a pretty good team. This is same squad that put it on New England 23-0 in the second half of Week 1. They’re still a good team.

 

Seahawks over Broncos

Anyone that has read my writing knows that I love the Seahawks. I realize they lost last week, but I still think they’re the best team in football. Plus, Denver hasn’t really impressed me that much. They’ve dominated their competition in the first half in the first two weeks, but both the Colts and Chiefs had the ball late, trailing by seven, driving for the tying touchdown, before the Broncos ultimately stopped them. They don’t run the ball well, and their defense really isn’t that physical. I love Peyton Manning, and I’m a huge Tennessee fan, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to ignore all the facts and what my eye balls tell me and just pick Denver. Seattle, as evidenced by the Super Bowl, is an extremely tough match up for the Broncos. They have a great secondary, they rush the passer extremely well, and they impose their will physically. Denver can’t run the ball, and they rely on Manning to drop back and throw a lot. That plays perfectly into what Seattle wants to do. Their pass rushers can pin their ears back and come after Manning the entire game, which means he’s going to be rushing his throws all day. If he does get his throws off cleanly, he’ll be throwing into one of the most physical and best defensive backfields in the league. On defense for Denver, Seattle is just going to constantly punch them in the mouth, and run the ball down their throats. Add in that Russell Wilson is 18-1 at home is his career, plus the fact that the 12^th man will be screaming like a bunch of kamikaze pilots the entire game, makes me believe that Seattle will win by at least 17 points.

 

Panthers over Steelers

Pittsburgh is not very good. They’re going to struggle to score points this week. Carolina’s defense is one of the best in the league, and Cam Newton is just a solid, consistent presence every week. He doesn’t turn the ball over, and he’ll make a few big plays each week that will help his team win. That’s literally all he needs to do every week. Pittsburgh may get shut out this week. It wouldn’t shock me. That O-line isn’t very good, and Baltimore, a team that’s not as good as Carolina defensively, held the Steelers to six points. I whiffed on the Panthers, I thought they’d regress this year. Oh well, it happens. Carolina will win big this week.

 

Bears over Jets

Finally, the Monday Night Game. I actually am a fan of Geno Smith. He looks like a guy that could lead a team to the playoffs. Plus, that defense is excellent against the run, and they run the ball very well. However, Chicago’s best asset is dropping back and throwing to those monster receivers on the outside. The Bills, another good running team, ran all over the Bears in Week 1, and the Jets may be able to do the same thing again this week. However, Chicago showed me something last week. They were so resilient, and that Brandon Marshall/Alshon Jeffery receiver combo is going to be tough to contend with, just like last year. I like the Bears on Monday Night.

 

As always, if you liked what you read, share it with someone, and feel free to comment. And enjoy football this weekend, you deserve it.