Tennesee WILL Beat Georgia, Tony Romo WILL Blow it, and Game Picks

Football has returned to our living rooms for another weekend, and I couldn’t be happier. I was glad to hear ESPN and other media outlets actually talk about GAMES and TEAMS (I know, what a concept) this week instead of Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson all day every day. After all, isn’t that what most of us care about anyway? I love sports because of the games and the players, and I tune into ESPN to hear them talk about those things, not to see Ray Lewis talk about the things you can cover up and things you can’t. However, apparently it was “Derek Jeter is the greatest athlete in the history of sports” week at ESPN, which was annoying, because he’s not (he’s not even one of the 25 or 30 greatest baseball players ever, or one of the five greatest Yankees. But more on that next week). However, at least they were talking about a players’ on field performance. That was so refreshing to listen to, because that’s why I watch sports. I watch for the players and the teams and the games. And I’m glad they’re here again this weekend.

 

Now, onto the games….

 

College Football

 

The college game has given us a few more interesting games this week. Then again, they hit rock bottom with the number of important games the last two weeks. Now I’m not saying there weren’t exciting games, but you knew it was going to be an unimportant week when there were a combined THREE GAMES over the last two weeks that pitted two ranked teams against each other. This week only has one, which happened yesterday in that UCLA-Arizona St game, but just trust me when I tell you that the level of importance is much higher this week. Actually, you don’t have to trust me, because I’m going to tell you about it.

 

#16 Stanford over Washington

 

I love Stanford to such a degree that I’m almost uncomfortable writing about it. I’m not a fan of the team by any stretch of the imagination, but I love the way they play. They are so physical and tough; it’s almost like they have an entire team full of guys who have swapped brains with Marshawn Lynch. Just like Lynch, they want to punch you in the mouth, physically intimidate their opponent, and they don’t care to make it ugly. And, yes, I intentionally italicized the ugly, because I don’t know if you’ve seen a picture of Lynch or not, but that dude makes Rosie O’Donnell look appealing. Just look at these pictures.

 

Anyway, I realize they’re traveling to Washington, but do we even know if the Huskies are any good? This is their first true test of the season, and they have to play the nation’s stingiest scoring defense (Stanford only allows 4.3 points a game). I think the Cardinal are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Everyone has sort of forgotten about them because of their early loss to USC, but they’re still an excellent team. Washington doesn’t stand a chance. Stanford will Marshawn Lynch-it-up early and win by double digits.

 

Missouri over #13 South Carolina

 

Yes, yes, I realize Missouri is coming off a terrible loss to a bad Indiana team, the same Hoosier team that lost to Bowling Green. It was inexcusable. That was a worse loss than the time when the “Andy Griffith Show” lost Don Knotts. And yeah, I know that pop culture reference is about 50 years old, but I had to throw that one out there for my older readers. A lot of them have probably been reading this blog over the last few weeks and thinking things like, “Kardashians? Isn’t that one of OJ’s lawyers?” or “What the heck is a Honey Boo Boo?” And if you do know anything about the “Keeping up with the Kardashians” or “Here Comes Honey Boo Boo”, I’m sorry. They don’t make your life any better, just worse. Much, much worse actually.

 

Anyway, I still like Missouri this weekend. They’ve got great receivers, a legitimate QB in Maty Mauk, and they’ll have the best defense in that game. I’m not a fan of South Carolina at all this year. They got their doors blown off by Texas A&M, East Carolina hung around with them the entire game, and they made Vanderbilt look like a semi-competent SEC team (which they aren’t). Yeah, I give them credit for the win over Georgia, but the Bulldogs blew that game by not handing the ball to Todd Gurley on three straight times on 1^st and goal from the 4 yard line. I try not to overreact to every bad loss. Sometimes a team loses to someone they should beat, a team that they are way better than. Missouri is still very good. I like them to bounce back in a big way this weekend and win.

 

Tennessee over #12 Georgia

 

I’m going to admit this up front, this is a little bit of a homer pick. Georgia is the better team. A few things to keep in mind though:

 

1. Georgia’s defense is terrible. Dylan Thompson threw the ball all over them in the South Carolina game, and they even struggled early to stop Troy’s passing game, though they buckled down and won 66-0. I like the way the Vols have thrown the ball this year, and they’ve got some nice, strong, physical receivers. Justin Worley, besides his two end zone picks against Oklahoma, has been really solid this year. He’s at least as good as Dylan Thompson right? And I feel like Tennessee is similarly skilled at the wide receiver and running back position as South Carolina. They’ll be able to move the ball the entire game. Tennessee will have to stop the run, which will be a huge task, because Todd Gurley might be the best back in the country. But if they can limit Georgia’s running game at all, then it comes down to Hutson Mason, a guy with only 3 games experience, to win the game for them.
2. The score (34-10) in the Oklahoma game didn’t tell the entire story. Tennessee, despite the fact that Worley got blasted again and again by Oklahoma’s pass rushers, actually played well. If Worley doesn’t throw those aforementioned end zone picks, Tennessee is down only 27-24 or 27-20 in the 4^th quarter, instead of 34-10, meaning they’d have a chance to win the game. The Vols played really well in that game. They competed the entire night. Plus, they won’t have to face a Georgia pass rush that’s anywhere close to as good as Oklahoma’s.
3. Georgia is one of the few teams that hasn’t blown out Tennessee every year the last few years. Even Dooley’s teams (excluding his first year) competed with the Dawgs. The Vols lost 20-12 in 2011, 51-44 in 2012, and a heartbreaker in overtime last year, 34-31. In every single one of those games, if Tennessee had made a few extra plays, or caught a few more breaks, they would’ve won those games. In 2011, in Marsalis Teague wasn’t starting at corner, playing his revolving door defense, Tennessee might have won that game. In 2012, Cordarrelle Patterson dropped a wide open pass (there was no one within 20 yards of him) in the first half that would’ve given the Vols a touchdown. And last year, Pig Howard fumbled through the side of the end zone as he was trying to reach for the pylon in overtime. That fumble gave Georgia the ball back, and they kicked the winning field goal. At some point, the Vols are going to have to catch a some breaks in this game right? They’ve played Georgia so close the last three years. I think this will be the year. I believe in Butch, I believe in this team. They’ll get it done on Saturday.

 

Other college picks:

#15 Arizona St over #11 UCLA (whoops, I whiffed badly on this one. More on the Bruins on Monday)

#24 Oklahoma St over Texas Tech

#6 Texas A&M over Arkansas

#1 Florida St over NC State

Kentucky over Vanderbilt

#22 Ohio State over Cincinnati

 

The NFL

 

This is the first week of the NFL season in which teams have a bye. The Seahawks, Broncos, Cardinals, Bengals, Browns, and Rams are all off this week. I know, only 4 of the best 5 teams (at least according to my rankings) in the league. Still though, the NFL has delivered some interesting games, so, in celebration of that, we’ll run through all the NFL games this week. Also, just so you know, I had the Redskins over the Giants last night. I know, I know, I’m off to a stellar 0-1 start. We’ll see how the rest of the week goes.

 

Texans over Bills

 

I don’t feel great about this one, because I still don’t really have a feel for how good the Texans are yet. They dominated the RG3 led Redskins in Week 1, blew out the Raiders in Week 2, and then were put down hard by the Giants last week. I wrote last week that the Texans were the most logical and obvious team to be this year’s Kansas City Chiefs, a team that somehow finds itself 8-1 after nine games, only no one is really sure how good they are, because they haven’t had to play any of the best teams in the league yet. I still think that, and that’s why I’ll take them this week. Buffalo’s impressed me this year, and they kept it relatively close against San Diego last week. And I really like EJ Manuel, though most people say he’s erratic and inaccurate. This will be a close game, probably low scoring, but Houston will find a way to gut it out and win close.

 

Ravens over Panthers

 

I’ve flipped on the Steve Smith Bowl about 500 times this week. I hate overreacting to losses, like the one Carolina had on Sunday night, but that game was decided almost completely by the fact that Cam Newton had almost no time to throw the ball the entire night. Pittsburgh has rushers in his face the entire game. Baltimore’s got a better front seven than the Steelers do, and I feel like they’ll be able to create at least similar pressure this week. Carolina is still banged up at running back, and Cam has no great weapons on the outside. The Panthers D is still really good, but if they break a few times (and I think they will), Carolina won’t be able to score enough to keep up with Baltimore. Plus, I think Steve Smith is going to have a monster game this week for the Ravens. At least, he better, because this is his game. It’s been named after him. I see at least 2 touchdowns and 125 receiving yards for him this week. I hate picking with Joe Flacco though, particularly against a great defense, just because I feel like he’s always got the potential to go Romo Jr. and throw some debilitating interceptions. But I’ll cross my fingers, close my eyes, and roll the dice with the Ravens this week.

 

Bears over Packers

 

I’m not a believer in the R-E-L-A-X message that Aaron Rodgers was pushing this week on a Milwaukee radio station. If I was in Packerland, I would be freaking out. This team isn’t good. No running game, no pass rush, bad tackling, etc. The list goes on and on. It’s all on Aaron Rodgers to make all the plays for them. And I like this Bears team a lot. They’re great offensively. Isn’t it weird that the Bears have a great offense, yet they are average defensively? That’s the exact opposite of how they’ve been for almost their entire franchise history. That would be like the entire cast of Jersey Shore, during the last season, deciding that they actually wanted to do something productive with their lives. It just wouldn’t be right, or make any sense. But enough about crappy reality shows. Green Bay’s strategy every week is, “We need Aaron Rodgers to make 700,000 plays every week for us to win” and whenever that’s the case, I’ll stick with the other team, particularly when that team is better.

 

Jets over Lions

 

My upset special of the week. If this game was in Detroit, or the Lions were coming off a loss last week, I would pick the Detroit without thinking twice. But the game is in New York, and the Lions dominated the Pack last week. They always play poorly off a big win (see Week 2, when they were dismantled by Carolina after their big win in Week 1 on Monday night against the Giants), and the offense is worse outdoors. Plus, the Jets run the ball really well, and they have an excellent defense (1^st against the run, second in yards allowed). I just don’t trust Matt Stafford or the Lions in a big spot following a win. The Jets will slog it out.

 

Speaking of the Jets, can everyone just chill out with all this Michael Vick nonsense? Let Geno figure it out. It’s his second year, and he’s only played three games! You drafted Geno for a reason, now let him go out there and play. That’s the only way he’s going to get better. Let him take some bumps, and let him make some mistakes. See if you’ve got a potential franchise quarterback in him. Don’t trot out Vick just because you think he gives you a better chance to win. It’s not like if you started Vick, he’ll suddenly take you to the Super Bowl or something. He won’t. He probably won’t even be able to stay healthy. Let Geno play. See what you’ve got there.

 

Colts over Titans

 

I might be off the Jake Locker bandwagon. He can’t consistently be accurate with football. The Titans were the biggest jokers of Week 1. They looked so impressive, but ever since then, they’ve done everything they can to make everybody forget that. Now don’t get me wrong, I don’t love this Colts team either. They are the Packers of the AFC, meaning it is Andrew Luck or bust. But they’re better than the Titans. Much better. Colts will win easily.

 

And seriously, how lucky are the Colts? I know this has been touched on before by many people, but how lucky do you have to be to land two great, franchise changing quarterbacks both times that you get the number 1 pick? How were they so lucky that they went from Manning right to Luck? So many franchises (Browns, Bears, Cardinals, Lions, Jets, etc.) searched for years for a franchise QB, only they always swung and missed with every guy they drafted or traded for. Indy has used up all its good fortune and luck for the next 100 years with those two draft picks. I hope they appreciate it.

 

Dolphins over Raiders

 

The Raiders are probably the 2^nd worst team in the league. They’re old and bad, and Dennis Allen probably won’t be around next year. It’s just a mess in Oakland. It’s like a Sharknado has constantly been ripping through that front office for the last decade. I don’t love the Dolphins either, but they’re better than the Raiders, even with all the controversy surrounding Ryan Tannehill and the quarterback situation.

 

Speaking of this game, why is the NFL sending this garbage match up to London? I mean seriously? Raiders-Dolphins? That’s what the Brits are getting? No wonder the league isn’t popular around the world. They get the Raiders, a team that hasn’t competed (and really has no hope of competing), and the Dolphins, who have been bad to mediocre the last 4 years. Why not throw them a bone and give them another game? You know, one where both teams actually have a chance of making the playoffs? But don’t give them Raiders-Dolphins. That sucks.

 

Steelers over Bucs

 

How did anyone think that Tampa Bay was going to be good this year? Is it because they hired Lovie Smith as their head coach? Or because they had Josh McCown starting at quarterback? Whatever it was, they’re just awful. Pittsburgh is super banged up though, so much so that they even signed James Harrison this week, who was three levels beyond washed up the last time we saw him play. They’ve lost Ike Taylor for at least 6-8 weeks, and they’ll miss Jarvis Jones for a while with a dislocated wrist. Tampa’s got to win a game at some point right? They won’t go 0-16. But they won’t get that first win this week. Pittsburgh’s injuries will allow the Bucs to hang around a little bit more than they probably should, but the Steelers will ultimately win. Tampa is just so bad.

 

Chargers over Jags

 

The Chargers are going to win. That’s really all I need to say about that. If you thought Oakland and Tampa Bay were bad, then you haven’t seen Jacksonville. They’ve played well for one half this year, when they led the Eagles 17-0 in the first half in Week 1. Since then, it’s been all bad. They lost that game 34-17, and then proceeded to get blown out by the Redskins and Colts the following two weeks. Honestly, I have no idea how the Jags are even still in Jacksonville. They’re so bad, and they’ve got no fan support. Nobody really cares if they’re good or not. They just trot out bad team after bad team year after year, and no one is really upset about it, because it’s the Jags and no one goes to those games. If the NFL ever ends up putting a team in Los Angeles (and I think they will), Jacksonville will be that team that ends up relocating there.

 

Falcons over Vikings

 

The Teddy Bridgewater era really goes into full effect this week, as he’ll start for the first time. I’m not a huge Bridgewater fan, but I think he could end up being a solid starting quarterback at some point. I’m a little disappointed that Cordarrelle Patterson hasn’t had a bigger impact this year yet, but that may have been a result of having Matt Cassel throwing him the ball. We’ll see if Bridgewater and Mike Zimmer make getting Patterson the ball a more important part of their game plan this week. Even still, Minnesota isn’t beating Atlanta this week. Offensively, particularly through the air, Atlanta is elite. How are the Vikings going to cover all of their weapons? I don’t see how they will, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Bridgewater struggles a little bit and throws a few picks. Plus, I actually really like this Atlanta team. They’ve impressed me more than anyone in their division. I’ll take Atlanta this week.

 

49ers over Eagles

 

This was the toughest call of the week for me. It really was. The 49ers haven’t scored any points in the 4^th quarter this season, and they either murder their chances to win with destructive penalties, or Colin Kaepernick blows it by throwing picks or making horrible decisions. The only reason I’m sticking by the Niners this week is because the Eagles will be without four of their five starting offensive lineman this week. Plus, Philly doesn’t have the athletes on the defensive side of the ball to make the Kaepernick pay when he makes a bad decision with the ball. For the last time this year, I’ll stick with the Niners. I’m betting on their past reputation and their pride. If they have any left still in that locker room, they’ll gut it out, and find a way to win on Sunday.

 

Saints over Cowboys

 

It’s always a good rule of thumb to pick against the Cowboys, particularly when they’re coming off a huge comeback win, and the country starts to get behind them and say things like, “You know what, maybe the Cowboys aren’t all that bad” or “Wow, they really look like they know what they’re doing offensively”. But what have we learned about Dallas these last few years? Every time Cowboys’ fans think they’ve figured it out, they find a way to break their heart. It will happen again this week. New Orleans will get to play on the turf in Jerry World, which means they’ll be able to move the ball easily on offense, and we’re still waiting for that Romo game this year where he throws like 2 or 3 debilitating interceptions. I thought it would be last week against the Rams, but I forgot one important detail; there is a positive correlation between awful, self destructing Romo games and games that are on national TV. The bigger the game, the more likely it is that Romo will kill his team with a few terrible throws. And when you add in the fact that everyone in the media is starting to get behind the Cowboys, coupled by the fact that Dallas is coming off a huge comeback win, there’s almost no way that Dallas will win on Sunday Night. It’s just in the character and personality of the team.

 

Pats over Chiefs

 

Finally, the Monday Night game. I hate this New England team. They more limited offensively than they’ve ever been. Gronk doesn’t look like the same player, and it seems like they have less weapons on the outside than they ever have. I mean, they struggled to put the Raiders away last week, and Oakland was a late holding penalty away from tying that game. But let’s not forget that they’re playing the Chiefs, a team that may be without its best offensive player (Jamal Charles), one that is quarterbacked by Alex Smith and coached by the King of Clock Mismanagement, Andy Reid. The Chiefs aren’t good. Let’s not forget that. New England isn’t either, but when I’m unsure about a game, I always go with the team that’s got the best coach-QB combo. That’s clearly the Pats. They’ll win this week.

 

Like always, I appreciate all who read. Feel free to comment, and please share this with someone. More importantly, enjoy football this weekend. You deserve it.