Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Overhyped, Overpaid, Overrated, Overvalued: The Carmelo Anthony Story


Phil Jackson and Carmelo Anthony, for what seemed like the 100th time already this season, had a face-to-face meeting about feelings, commitment, happiness, the future, and a bunch of other emotions and intangible ideas. This “heated” get together revealed nothing, other than that ‘Melo reasserted his personal desire to remain in New York long term. Anthony’s future living situation was apparently such a big deal that ESPN felt it necessary to use it as its lead for the 6 o’clock edition of Sportscenter.
I found it strange that The Worldwide Leader cared that much about Anthony’s state of mind and the floundering Knicks, a team that’s won just two games since Christmas. Why did they feel it necessary to devote seven minutes to a guy that hasn’t been one of the 15 best players in the league since 2013?
The Carmelo-Knicks marriage has actually been kind of funny if you think about it, because ‘Melo is basically the player version of what that franchise has been this century. Both get a ton of undeserved press, particularly when you look at their accomplishments (or lack thereof), they’ve almost always been losers, and both have loudly and fragrantly been a mess behind the scenes (at least according to George Karl).
Here’s my thesis about ‘Melo: His aesthetically pleasing game, filled with a zillion up-fakes, jab steps, dribbles that go nowhere, and one-on-one moves, coupled with the “he’s the best scorer in the NBA” false narrative that was pushed by talking head hype men (like Stephen A. Smith) has led to him becoming the most overrated player in the history of the NBA.
The “CARMELO ANTHONY IS THE BEST SCORER IN THE NBA! HE CAN SCORE FROM ANYWHERE ON THE COURT! I SWEAR TO GOD HE CAN!” argument has never made sense to me, because it doesn’t make sense statistically! ‘Melo’s highest points per game for an entire year was the 28.9 he slapped up during the 2006-07 season. But how does that stack up to the other scoring legends in league history? Not great, considering it’s only behind Allen Iverson’s four best seasons, Michael Jordan’s nine best seasons, Kobe Bryant’s three best seasons, George Gervin’s three best seasons, Dominique Wilkins’s four best seasons, Adrian Dantley’s five best seasons, Bob McAdoo’s three best seasons, Kevin Durant’s three best seasons, Wilt Chamberlain’s seven best seasons, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s four best seasons, Karl Malone’s three best seasons, Rick Barry’s five best seasons, Jerry West’s four best seasons, Oscar Robertson’s seven best seasons, and Shaquille O’Neal’s three best seasons. And out of all the guys I just listed, only Kobe (44.7% career FGs) and Iverson (42.5% FGs) have a lower career field goal percentage than Carmelo (45.2%), and only Dantley, McAdoo, Kareem, and Shaq averaged less points per game than Anthony, though all of their averages came down in the latter part of their career, something ‘Melo hasn’t experienced yet. But it’s pretty damning that all of the other best scorers in league history could check at least two of these three boxes against Carmelo:
1.      Multiple seasons with higher scoring averages than ‘Melo’s scoring peak
2.      Higher career FG%
3.      Higher career points per game
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Here’s something else I never understood; Why does LeBron have 1000 times as many haters as Carmelo does? “Old school fans” who are terrified of having anyone compared to MJ and go to bed every night clutching their Air Jordan’s while wearing Bulls’ pajamas are a large part of it, as is the whole “LBJ is a pussy who flops all the time!” narrative (which isn’t totally inaccurate), but just from a basketball standpoint, LeBron is one of the three best players to ever walk on the court. His career 6.9 assists per game suggests that he plays the game unselfishly, as does the eye test, and he, at least at one point, tried on nightly basis on defense, Plus, he’s been wildly successful in the postseason (6 straight Finals appearances, 3 titles), whereas Anthony is a blackhole who has averaged a meager 3.1 assists per game during his career, which is probably a significant factor in his less than stellar three career playoff series wins. And of course, he wouldn’t be considered a candidate for an all-defensive team unless you just had your brain chemistry permanently altered by a Jack Tatum hit. Where’s Carmelo’s Skip Bayless?
How about scoring? Isn't that Anthony’s strength? Yeah... not really. LeBron actually averages more points per game and shoots a higher percentage than 'Melo (27.1 points per game on 49.8% shooting, compared to 24.8 and 45.2%), and they’ve both won just one scoring title. Plus, Carmelo's career high 28.9 points per game is less than LBJ's three best scoring seasons. 
It couldn't get more ridiculous than that right? Yes, yes it can, considering that Anthony has earned about $176.6 million in salary during his playing career, while LeBron has banked about $169.6 million. What? Isn’t he like 60% of the player that King James is? Maybe even less?
How does Carmelo’s basketball salary compare to the league’s other top career earners? Here’s the top ten list:
1.      Dirk Nowitzki: $216.6 million
2.      Joe Johnson: $192.5 million
3.      Paul Pierce: $190.5 million
4.      Carmelo Anthony: $176.6 million
5.      LeBron James: $169.6 million
6.      Pau Gasol: $167.5 million
7.      Dwight Howard: $163.6 million
8.      Chris Bosh: $163.2 million
9.      Zach Randolph: $162.2 million
10.  Vince Carter: $154.8 million
Let’s try this exercise: What have these players given their teams for every million that they’ve earned?
1.      Dirk: 137.1 points, 49.0 rebounds, 15.9 assists, per million
2.      Johnson: 102. 2 points, 24.8 rebounds, 25.1 assists per million
3.      Pierce: 138.4 points, 39.4 rebounds, 24.7 assists per million
4.      ‘Melo: 132.5 points, 35.3 rebounds, 16.8 assists per million
5.      LeBron: 163 points, 43.4 rebounds, 42 assists per million
6.      Gasol: 117.4 points, 61.8 rebounds, 21.4 assists per million
7.      Dwight: 98.7 points, 71.1 rebounds, 8.3 assists per million
8.      Bosh: 105.3 points, 46.5 rebounds, 11 assists per million
9.      Z-Bo: 106 points, 58.6 rebounds, 11.4 assists per million
10.  Vinsanity: 156.7 points, 39 rebounds, 28.7 assists per million
The most glaring observation, besides “The only way Joe Johnson made that much money to be that mediocre throughout his career was because he had golden shower pictures of all 30 NBA owners” is that this breakdown only confirms how overvalued Anthony has been since he broke into the league. Of the top ten, he’s second to last in rebounds per million, and 6th in assists per million, beating out only a few of the big men. He’s even unimpressive as a scorer, finishing a disappointing 5th in points per million. 
And when you compare some of the intricacies of his career to the other guys, it’s even worse. Dirk won league MVP in 2007, and was the best player on one title team, the 2011 Mavs, and was good enough to have a championship contender built around him and his offense for about a decade. Pierce won Finals MVP in 2008, coexisted and meshed his talents with Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Rajon Rondo, led the Celtics to the ’02 Conference Finals, scored 41 points in Game 7 of the 2008 Eastern Conference Semi-finals, almost cancelling out LeBron’s 45, and actually gave effort defensively, particularly once Garnett showed up. Gasol was the second best player on two title teams, was the Lakers’ MVP of Game 7 of the 2010 NBA Finals, due to his 19 point, 18 rebound performance, and has been one of the best passing big men since he debuted in the Association. Dwight Howard has fallen off the side of the flat earth since his back suddenly became incapable of holding up his body a few years ago, but at his peak, he was the unquestioned best center in the NBA from ’09-’12, as well as one of its best defensive players and rebounders in league history. I’m not a huge Vince Carter fan, and he’s basically last generation’s ‘Melo, but at least Vinsanity figured out a way to reinvent himself as a role player who could come off the bench, provide a scoring punch, and make a few corner threes.
I think we have more than enough evidence to suggest that a ‘Melo-centered offense can’t win a title like a Dirk-centered one did over five seasons ago. I also highly doubt that Carmelo could’ve seamlessly fit in with the 2008 Celtics the way Pierce did, or accepted the reduced role on LeBron’s Heat that Bosh had to. He’s only “effective” when he catches the ball on the wing, stops the offense, makes a 100 different fakes and “moves”, and then forces up a contested 18 footer. Pierce and Bosh had to change their games and take diminish their roles in order to make their teams work; Paul suddenly had the ball less and had to start working on the defensive end, while Chris's post-ups and elbow catches basically vanished, forcing him to become a three-point shooter, third option, and rim protector. Would Anthony accept those roles? Considering he turned down a free agent offer to join a better roster in Chicago (with a coach, Tom Thibodeau,  that would’ve made him work on defense and share the ball with his teammates) during the summer of 2014, in order to stay in New York for purely business and branding reasons, I feel pretty confident in saying that he wouldn’t have. And I don't want to hear about, "He's a great Olympics player! That totally means he could figure it out!". No, it doesn't. Everyone gets along then because they're kicking so much ass! All 'Melo has to do is play 15-20 minutes where he hangs around the perimeter and chucks open 22 foot threes. And he doesn't even really have to worry about defense all that much since there's always an elite shot blocker like DeAndre Jordan behind him, protecting and saving him from any mistake he'd make. The Olympics isn't a true, realistic basketball situation, it's an All Star team that actually tries hard for 40 minutes.

What has Carmelo really accomplished? He made the Conference Finals in 2009 when the Nuggets fleeced Chauncey Billups from Detroit for a washed up Allen Iverson, whose career would come to a screeching halt about a year later, probably due to the fact that he was a freak who never slept and was out at all hours of the night partying and drinking like a college freshman destined for early onset alcoholism and poor grades. He then forced his way out of Denver via trade in 2011, ending up on a Knicks team featuring a banged up Amar’e Stoudemire and not much else, considering they shipped almost all their assets to the Nuggets in order to acquire him. After back-to-back first round losses in ’11 and ’12, Carmelo and the Knicks “broke through” in 2013, as they won 54 games and finished with the second best record in the East. They were serious contenders now, right? Wrong! Their season ended in the conference semifinals, when they were pushed around and stifled by the Pacers for 6 games. To Anthony’s credit, he wasn’t terrible in that series (28.5 points per game), though his shooting percentage (43.3%) and assists (1.3 per game) left something to be desired. Of course, isn’t that series basically classic ‘Melo? Good scoring numbers, though not spectacular, a ton of missed shots, virtually no assists, and no defense? Kind of tough to win when your superstar’s only skill is scoring, and he’s not even really that elite at it. He’s followed it up by missing the playoffs three straight seasons, with a fourth straight miss more than likely this year.
What’s the best thing that happened to the Knicks since Carmelo arrived? Here’s a list:
1.      Linsanity
2.      Beating the Celtics in the 2013 First Round
3.      Carmelo’s 62 point performance against Charlotte in 2014, a team record, a Madison Square Garden record, and a new career high for Anthony,
4.      When they drafted Kristaps Porzingis in the first round of the 2015 NBA Draft
5.      Winning Game 4 in the first round of the 2012 playoffs against Miami, New York’s first playoff win in over a decade
6.      When Jason Kidd got away with a clear offensive foul that allowed him to convert a four-point play during the 2013 regular season
7.      When they defeated LeBron in his first game back in Cleveland during the 2014-15 season
8.      When they reunited the 2011 Eastern Conference All Star Roster…. in 2016 by signing Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah
9.      All the times Amar'e Stoudemire had a season-ending knee injury
10.  Derek Fisher’s lone season as head coach, 2015-16, when the Knicks ran the worst iteration of the triangle in the history of the league
11.  When they hired Phil Jackson to run their organization
12.  James Dolan’s continued ownership

WHAT A RUN!!!! Funny thing is, Carmelo missed out on the best stretch of his New York tenure, Linsanity, due to injuries. He had nothing to do with the Porzingis selection, unless you want to give him “credit” for sucking so much during the prior season that it allowed the Knicks to get a pick that high. The rest of these aren’t that memorable, or aren’t actually good at all, except for the fringe population that cares about the MSG scoring record (and if you’re outside of New York, you don’t).

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I can’t believe ‘Melo’s name is being thrown into trade rumors like he’s some hot commodity. If I was a contender (like the Clippers), why would I want this guy? So he can stop the ball, take 15 bad shots a game, not play a lick of defense, and hog up an ungodly amount of cap space? I know Blake Griffin’s been in the operating room more than most surgeons since he entered the league, but I’d roll the dice and then pray to god that he’s somehow able to stay healthy, than bring in Carmelo, whose biggest contribution would be killing the offense and letting everyone he guarded blow right past him like he was a turnstile. Plus, Anthony has a no-trade clause, and he clearly wants to stay in New York, because, again, business and branding.

What a waste. But hey, at least we’ll get 9 million more “contentious” Phil Jackson-‘Melo meetings, an uncomfortable Kobe-like career ending for Anthony, and the continued ineptitude of the Knicks, and the death of basketball in New York! Hooray!

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