In case you missed it, you can find Part 1 of my NBA power
rankings right here.
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You’re telling me we could win 46 games, and still miss
the playoffs?
15. Oklahoma City
Thunder
14. New Orleans
Pelicans
13. Phoenix Suns
Unless San Antonio
inexplicably starts slipping (which I don’t expect to happen), only one of
these three teams will make the playoffs. Phoenix
is six games over .500, New Orleans
has the most exciting under 23 player in the league (Anthony Davis), and OKC
has, when healthy, two of the best five or six players in the league. The
Thunder’s biggest problem, obviously, has been both Kevin Durant and Russell
Westbrook’s inability to stay healthy all season, particularly KD, who has
been able to suit up in just 22 games. It’s been one injury after another for the
reigning league MVP, whether it was a broken bone in his foot in the preseason,
a sprained ankle on December 18th, and more recently, a toe problem
that has kept him out of OKC’s last two contests. Westbrook has done his best
to carry the load in the Durantula’s absence, including some ridiculous stat
lines, like Monday’s triple double, when he notched 25 points, 11 rebounds, and
14 assists, or Wednesday, when he dropped 45 in New Orleans. But he’s had
injury problems of his own, and the lack of talent on the Thunder roster
outside of those two has caused it to be a shaky year in Oklahoma .
When Durant has been healthy, OKC hasn’t missed a beat, going 14-8 when he's been on the court. They’re currently sitting at 25-24, with only 33
games left. What would their record be at the end of the season if they were
able to keep up the “healthy Durant” pace for the rest of the year? And what
would the Pelicans’ and Suns’ record be if they stuck to their current pace?
Thunder: 46-36
Pelicans: 44-38
Suns: 46-36
So as you can see, it’s going to be an extremely tight race
down the stretch, and because of this, the Thunder will need Slim Reaper on the court consistently
to even have a chance of sniffing the playoffs. And even then, they still might
not make it. With that said, if they were able to sneak in (and I think they
ultimately will, because I just can’t see a team with Durant and Westbrook, in
their primes, missing the playoffs. This isn’t prime Carmelo we’re talking
about, after all), they’ll be an extremely terrifying Round One opponent for Memphis
or Golden State Davis ,
they don’t have anyone that’s a top 10 player at their position. Tyreke Evans
seems to have figured some things out, and is having a nice year, but he’ll
never be an All Star. Plus, they’re still a terrible defensive team (ranked 22nd
in defensive efficiency) that strangely has trouble beating Eastern Conference
teams (they’re a woeful 8-10 against that conference this season). Even
stranger, they were the team that ended Atlanta ’s
improbable 19 game winning streak. Here’s a lesson for everyone for the next 12
years: believe in the power of the Brow.
The most Cleveland
12. Cleveland
Cavaliers
On July 11th, LeBron James did the most
anti-Cleveland thing possible. He came back. He chose the city that inspired The Drive, The Fumble, The Shot,
Edgar Renteria's World Series Walkoff, and most hilarious Joakim Noah quote of all time. The move north was universally (except in South
Beach
Maybe I’m being a little too hard ranking them this low.
After all, they’ve won 12 games in a row (including last night’s thrashing of
the Clippers), acquired the rim protector they sorely lacked in Timofey Mozgov,
and seem to be getting the dominant, physically overpowering version of LeBron
back (you know, the guy we weren’t seeing the first two months of the season?).
Or maybe I’m not. This is still a team that’s relying
heavily on two guys (Love and Irving) who are somewhere between “bad” and
“matador” on the defensive end, in addition to the fact that neither of them
have ever played in a single playoff game. Also, Mozgov is the savior? Really? This is a guy
that’s most famous and notable NBA moment was when he created the verb
“Mozgov’d” by getting dunked on by Blake Griffin. Trading
two first round picks for him (which Cleveland
inexplicably did) is like paying $37,000 for a 1991 Honda Accord with 210,000
miles on it. It literally makes no sense. Heck, it might be the worst panic
trade in the league the last decade.
LeBron (26.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game)
is doing everything he can, but that wasn’t good enough for last year’s Heat
team, one that just happens to be much better than the squad created in Cleveland
this season. They aren’t making the Finals, and frankly, I can’t see them
winning more than a single series, unless LeBron just plays out of his mind
(which is completely conceivable). The roster, even in the East, is too flawed.
The Return, at least in year one, will end in disappointment.
And when it does, what will happen next season? If their
recent transactions have been indication of anything, it’s that LeBron carries
enormous weight and influence in the front office. It’s the reason Mike Miller
is on the roster, why Ray Allen’s name keeps popping up in rumors, why Dion
Waiters got shipped out of town, and more than likely why both Love and Mozgov
don a Cavs’ uniform. Bill Simmons pointed out in LeBron’s SI letter that he
mentioned the names of several of his future Cleveland teammates, but didn’t
include the guy that just went number 1 in the NBA draft, Andrew Wiggins, or
the guy that went number 1 the year before, Anthony Bennett. Both of them were
almost immediately shipped to Minnesota
for Love. You don’t think King James had something to do with that?
Will Blatt be back? I doubt it. And when he is relieved of
his coaching duties, they’ll hire some “Yes Man” coach (I’m looking at you
Tyronn Lue) hand picked by LBJ, followed by them making some strange, “I know
this guy, and he’s going to help us!” trades engineered by GM LeBron, because he
holds all the leverage with the Cleveland organization. Don’t forget that
during his magical return, he only signed a two year deal, one that expires
after 2016. Cleveland is trapped.
They’re so attached and married to the King, and so terrified that he’ll leave
them again, that he can basically demand anything and they’ll bend over
backwards to make it happen. He’s such a overpowering and commanding figure,
and I think it really hurts him that he doesn’t have someone in the front
office that he really respects like Pat Riley. You know, someone that says,
“Hold up LeBron, it’s probably a terrible idea to flip two first round picks
for a guy that averages a career 6.6 points and 5.1 rebounds per game”. Cleveland
doesn’t have a strong, NBA lifer like Riley, someone to keep LeBron in check.
He holds all the leverage, and all the bargaining chips… and I don’t think
that’s a good thing, for his career, or for the future of basketball in Cleveland .
We’re having nice seasons, but, are we actually
contenders?
11. Toronto
Raptors
10. Washington
Wizards
I’ve become a huge John Wall fan over the last couple of
seasons, because he’s finally completely put together his immense gifts and
channeled them all into playing winning basketball. He’s been the best point
guard in the East the last two years, and he’s never been better at making
plays for his teammates than this season, as he’s averaging a career high 10.2
assists per game. I think he should probably get some MVP love, and I’m glad
the normally dumb fans voted him a starter in the All Star game. They saved
their voting idiocy for Kobe and
Carmelo.
I could see both of these teams forcing their way into the
conference finals, but the Finals seems like too tall of a task, at least this
season. The Raps have one of the best backcourts in the league (Kyle Lowry,
also an All Star starter, and Demar Derozan), but their roster around those
guys is worse than any of the other top six teams in the East. There was a
trade to be made somewhere, but Toronto
just hasn’t pulled the trigger, at least not yet. Washington
is interesting, because they’ve got Nene and Marcin Gortat, two bigs that could
match up with the front lines in Chicago
and Atlanta , but at peak value, I
like those teams better than the Wizards.
The End of an Era
9. San Antonio
Spurs
I hate to say this, because it almost feels like this will
inevitably blow up in my face, but I think the Spurs’ run as an elite level
championship contender is over. The Duncan-Parker-Ginobili trio that’s won four
titles together all look like they’ve lost a step and a half, and their best
player, Kawhi Leonard, has a rather serious hand injury that may end up
requiring surgery this off-season. Plus, unless they go on a ridiculous winning
streak, and have a string of losses from a bunch of teams above them, they
won’t have home court advantage in any of their playoff series. Add in the fact
that they aren’t better than Memphis ,
G-State, the Clippers, or even Portland ,
and you’ve got a probable first round exit. Popovich is a genius, but not even
his brain can overcome the declining skills of his former superstars.
Also, a point to not completely dismiss: remember at the
beginning of the season when everybody was talking about the Spurs lack of
drive and motivation, because they exorcised all of their demons by avenging
their heart-breaking Finals defeat at the hands of the Heat by ripping through
them in five games last year? Their entire 2014 season was completely geared
towards and driven by the pain of that defeat. They wanted nothing more than to
get back to Finals, and they vanquished every foe in their path. It’s
impossible for anyone, unless you’re a super competitive psycho like MJ, to be
just as hungry during the repeat season. I’m not saying San
Antonio doesn’t care about winning, or their just
taking it easy, but it’s natural to relax a little bit after everything they
accomplished last season.
And honestly, can you really blame them? Duncan
is 38 years old, and already cemented as one of the eight greatest players of
all time. What else does he have to prove? He’s won five titles, three Finals
MVPs, collected two league MVPs, dominated the Association for a decade and
half, and tore the “best power forward ever” championship belt out of Karl
Malone’s hands like seven years ago. The same goes for Popovich. He’s on the
NBA coaching Mount Rushmore with Phil Jackson, Red
Auerbach, and Pat Riley, and he’s presided over an unprecedented 15 straight 50
win teams. Those guys, their leaders, have achieved everything they’ve ever wanted
to do with professional basketball. It’s just a shame that the run appears to
be coming to an end.
Our aspirations are the size of Texas
8. Houston
Rockets
7. Dallas
Mavericks
I’m not going to pretend I can write an unbiased take on the
Rockets, who I dislike more than any other NBA team. It probably has something
to do with my extreme dislike of James Harden’s flopping, his “I’d rather be tortured by Liam Neeson than play defense” attitude, and Dwight Howard’s
presence on this team, who somehow went from one of the league’s most popular
players in Orlando to one of it’s most reviled in an extremely short span of
time. Personally, I don’t hate Dwight, I just find myself being extremely
frustrated by his career, because as great as he’s been, there’s no doubt that
he’s left a ton on the table. He’s got the same problem that Shaq had (and the
reason The Diesel’s career should’ve been 15% better than it was); both were
amongst the most physically gifted athletes the league has ever seen, while
just happening to be two of the least competitive superstars to ever grace the
Association. I’m not saying they didn’t want to win, but they weren’t
devastated and tortured by losing like MJ, Kobe ,
Bird, Russell, and many other NBA legends. Because of their gifts, both men
never really had to work on their games to be elite players, as they were able to
coast by based on their athleticism and strength alone. Shaq’s lack of
competitiveness is why he never got in shape, and it’s why Dwight has only
gotten marginally better with his back to the basket throughout his career. The
difference between the two (and the reason The Big Aristotle is the greater player historically) is that O’Neal had far superior footwork in
the post, much better touch around the basket, and a more imposing frame, which
enabled him to tear through whoever he pleased. Dwight is strong, but people
don’t go flying in all directions when he bumps into them. You could forgive
Shaq for his attitude, because he actually put it together and absolutely
destroyed the league for three straight postseasons during the Lakers 3-peat,
something Dwight has never done, and frankly, was never capable of doing.
Sure, Harden is an elite offensive player (27 points and 6.8
assists per game), but his porous defense is the main
reason that I’m out on Houston as a
title contender. In fact, I’m creating this rule right now: you can’t be a
title contender if your best player doesn’t care about competing on the
defensive end. Seriously, you can’t. I’m not saying you need your best guy to
be Gary Payton or prime Ron Artest on that end (after all, Dirk, Magic, and
Bird were all the best guys on championship teams, and none of them ever struck
fear in the hearts of the men they were guarding), but you can’t have this
laissez-faire attitude towards it either, like Harden has had since he arrived
in Houston.
Remember that time when Rajon Rondo went toe-to-toe with
LeBron and Wade for seven games in the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals? Or when
he was the best player on the floor for much of the 2010 NBA Finals? I know I
do, though those accomplishments seem like they were ages ago. The departure of
Ray Allen, a Rondo torn ACL, the trading of Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, and
the worst Celtics team since 2007 have all happened since then, leading to this
iteration of Rondo, a guy who is averaging a shockingly low 8.7 points and 8.7
assists per game. Really? That’s it? And it’s gotten even worse since he
arrived in Dallas . At least in Boston ,
he was throwing up some nice stat lines, including a few triple doubles. But
his Mavericks tenure has been less than stellar, and much worse than I
anticipated. Sure, Dallas is 13-8
in games with Rondo, but their offensive efficiency has dipped considerably, about
7 points per 100 possessions since the trade. I don’t think Rajon is done as a
basketball player, but the Dallas
fit hasn’t worked. He’s an extremely unique player, someone who really needs an
offense to be built around his skills for him to be successful, and I’m not
sure the Mavs have the time (or the desire) to just completely toss aside all
of their other pieces to make this work, at least this season. Dirk still needs
his isos, and Monta Ellis is at his best when he’s attacking the basket with the ball in his
hands. I’m interested to see what happens over the next few weeks with this team, as Rondo
will be out as he undergoes facial surgery for an accidental kick he took to the head from teammate Richard Jefferson. What if Dallas
takes off without him? And if they do, how will they reintegrate him back into
the offense? There are just too many questions for me, and probably too many
for them to win a first round playoff series in the loaded West.
THIS is how we’ll feel if we have to deal
with another injury
6. Chicago Bulls
5. Portland
Trailblazers
To the casual observer, I probably have both these teams
ranked 5 spots too high, based on recent play alone. Chicago
is just 5-10 in their last 15 games, and Portland
is a paltry 3-8 since January 14th. Injuries have been extremely
debilitating for both teams, particularly to Portland ’s
front line; in addition to LaMarcus Aldridge’s torn thumb ligament that he’s
decided to play through, they missed Robin Lopez for 23 games with a fractured
hand, and have been without Joel Freeland since January 3rd due to a
shoulder strain. You can only deal with that so many body blows to your team
before things start to crumble. Fortunately for them, Lopez was able to return
on Wednesday, and Freeland should be back shortly. I’ve got them ranked this
high because I just can’t foresee a scenario where a healthy Blazers team
doesn’t at least make the conference semifinals. Even though they suck
defensively, they're too talented on the offensive end to not win at least
one series. They also just happen to employ the most random NBA player that I really
like, Damian Lillard. The biggest travesty in the league this season is that
this guy wasn’t an All Star. Like seriously, how did that happen? He’s been
getting MVP buzz all season! The fact that Kobe
and his 38% shooting got voted into the game as a starter is just another
reason why I hate like 75% of NBA fans.
I’m not as optimistic about the Bulls, because I’m not
exactly sure they’ll ever be healthy. D-Rose and Joakim Noah, the two pillars
of the franchise, may be just done physically. I want Rose to recapture his
2011 MVP form again, I really do, but just watching him play basketball scares
the hell out of me. Every time he lands awkwardly or hits the floor, I cringe.
He doesn’t get to the rim anywhere near as easily as he used to, meaning he now
settles for a ton more jump shots and three pointers, something that’s never
been the strength of his game. The tape, and the numbers, show it:
2011 D-Rose
25.0 PPG, 7.7 APG, .445 FG%, .332 3P%, 37.4 minutes per
game, .858 FT%, 81 games played
2015 D-Rose
18.7 PPG, 4.8 APG, .408 FG%, .296 3P%, 30.8 minutes per
game, .807 FT%, 39 games played (out of 50)
Everything is down, and it depresses me. I want this guy back, just selfishly as an NBA fan, but also for his own career.
That guy was so awesome to watch, but he might be gone forever. That’s what
happens when two serious knee injuries cause to basically miss 30 months of
competitive basketball.
The same goes for Noah, who is regressing before our eyes.
He’s averaging his lowest points per game total since 2009, his lowest rebounds
per game since 2012, and the lowest field goal percentage of his career. I love
Tom Thibodeau, but he’s really grinded those guys, particularly Noah, so much
over the last few seasons. Joakim only has one speed, which is great, because
you know you’re going to get his best effort every night, but he really needs a
coach to reign him in and limit his minutes to like 30 a game.
Of the two though, I definitely have more faith in Noah
returning to form. I’m not sure he’s really been healthy in two years because
of his plantar fasciitis, but if (and that’s an enormous if) he was able to get
over it, I’m certain we’d start to see the A+ Joakim again, which is something
Chicago will need if they have any chance of making the Finals.
This is the least fun Blake season since he was 8 years
old and couldn’t dunk
4. Los Angeles
Clippers
I could write something like, “Blake Griffin has completely
changed his approach this season, as he’s shooting way more jumpers, and
dunking A LOT less (he’s on pace for just 112 dunks this season, 64 less than
last season)” but I really don’t have to, because he did it for me in his Players' Tribune piece that he wrote this week. In the article, he talks
about how the fans criticism motivated him to improve his midrange game,
and how he really needed to make it more consistently, because his body was wearing down over the
course of an 82 game season, as he was relying solely on his athleticism. I
understand that it takes a toll on your body to put your head down and drive as
hard as you can to the basket multiple times night after night, but I hope Griffin
will start playing closer to the basket once the Clips begin postseason play.
He’s at his best when he’s wreaking havoc on defenses with his quickness and
explosiveness. LA will need that version of Blake if they’re going to win the
title.
We’ll be seeing each other at the end of May
3. Golden State
2. Memphis
Grizzlies
In my opinion, these teams are going to meet in the Western
Conference Finals. I think that overall, G-State is the best team in the West,
but I have the Grizz ranked over them solely because they’re the worst possible
match up for the Warriors. Steve Kerr’s team has no answer on the interior for
the two headed monster that is Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, and with the acquisitions
of Vince Carter and Jeff Green, Memphis
has enough on the perimeter to not get overwhelmed by State. The only way I could
see the Warriors winning that series is if they absolutely went off in multiple
games from downtown (which is completely possible). They’d need like two or
three crazy Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson heat check games where they make
like a combined 15 threes. And even then, it might not be enough.
Speaking of Curry, at this point in the season, he’d get my
MVP vote. He’s the leader of the best team in the best conference, and his
numbers (23.6 points, 8.1 assists per game) are right there with Derrick Rose’s
2011 MVP season. Here’s how I’d rank the candidates right now:
- Stephen Curry
- Marc Gasol
- John Wall
- The Brow
- LeBron James
I had to throw The Brow on their, because as I mentioned
before, I can’t believe the Pelicans, with that roster, are fighting for a
playoff spot in the loaded West. And yes, I left James Harden off the list,
because I’m not giving the MVP to a complete and total defensive liability who
just happens to not care that he’s a complete and total defensive liability.
Another quick tangent on the Warriors: isn’t it amazing that
the Dubs basically returned the same exact team as last season, only with a
different coach, and now, they’ve suddenly got the best record in the West, and
their offensive deficiencies have completely vanished? They move the ball so
much better now, even if Curry isn’t on the floor, and they get the highest
number of open shots outside of Atlanta .
I’m sorry, but how terrible was Mark Jackson? Steve Kerr stepped in and Golden
State Jackson
was the most clueless guy on the sidelines last season, and that’s saying
something, considering both Jacque Vaughn and Tyrone Corbin were in the league.
We’d be lying if we said we saw this coming
1. Atlanta Hawks
I’m going to tell you about an exchange that occurred between
my Angry Old Man and I back in December, as we were driving back from Johnson
City together. We were just talking about a bunch of
random stuff, when he asked me what I thought about the Hawks. Keep in mind
that this was before their improbable 19 game winning streak, though they were
still in first in the East. As someone who has followed the NBA my entire life,
my natural inclination was to laugh, and instantly dismiss them as legitimate championship
contenders, which I did. It made sense to me. I’d seen this story with Atlanta
a zillion times before. They’d had some really nice pseudo-contending teams in the past, but ultimately, it had never led to anything but frustration and early
round playoff exits. Why would things be any different this season?
It’s times like this when I’m reminded how much of an idiot
I am. Since then, the Hawks won 19 in a row, placed three players in the All Star
game, and put 8 games between themselves and everyone else in the East. Al
Horford’s re-addition to the lineup from last season’s shoulder injury has been
huge for them, and he, along with Paul Millsap, have formed the most imposing
front line outside of Memphis . Kyle
Korver is having a ridiculous season, as he’s hoping to become the first ever
member of the 50-50-90 club (50% field goal percentage, 50% three point
percentage, 90% free throw percentage). And then there’s Jeff Teague, who,
along with Mike Conley, is the most underrated point guard in the league. They’ve
got the best backup point guard in the game in Dennis Schroder, ridiculous wing
defense and shooting from DeMarre Carroll and Mike Scott, and Pero Antic’s
three point shooting and toughness on the interior. Somehow, despite all the turmoil in the organization, they’ve managed to build the most complete team
in the Association. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but… the Atlanta Hawks are
going to the NBA Finals.
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