Can The Vols Finally Beat Will Muschamp? Plus, Week 9 College Football Picks

Jeremy Pruitt seems to be back in the good graces of the Tennessee fanbase again. After facing levels of condemnation in September that rivaled the end of the Butch Jones tenure, he’s managed to stabilize things on Rocky Top the last three weeks, thanks to the team’s performance against Georgia, Mississippi State, and Alabama. Never mind the fact that the Vols have been outscored 88-47 in those three games, the fanbase is desperate and willing to buy back in, as the thought of admitting that the program has whiffed on four straight coaching hires, and thus must start fresh with someone else is daunting, and brings about even more levels of uncertainty.

Pruitt helped himself with a certain segment of the fanbase with his… antics on the sidelines last week against Alabama. Some fans ate up the fact that he ripped the officiating to the Vol Radio Network at halftime, and that he let the poor calls influence his behavior so profoundly that he looked like a bald 16 year old hopped up on too many Red Bulls for most of the game. Some fans even loved the fact that he jerked Jarrett Guarantano’s facemask after JG screwed up the 4^th and goal with an audibled at the line quarterback sneak that led to a 100 yard fumble return for a TD and killed Tennessee's last chance at a comeback.

“Hell yeah!” they said. “That’s how I used to be coached, and by golly, it worked!” Or, “You’re PC nonsense if you have a problem with that kind of coaching!” Or, “Pat Summitt used to coach ‘em hard! Look at this picture!” Or, “Look at this recruit's father! He said that Pruitt could put his hands on his son! That means it’s fine!” Great. Let’s just ignore the fact that if your boss put his hands on you at your job, you’d want to fight him. Or, alternatively, if Guarantano thought that Pruitt had screwed something up, would it be ok for him to lay hands on Pruitt? It wouldn't be? Of course not. Why is it “PC” or “radical” to suggest that two adults shouldn’t lay hands on each other in anger?

Does Nick Saban “coach his guys hard”? You bet. Does Nick Saban ever put his hands on players? Not that I’ve ever seen. You know why? Because its not appropriate. There’s a difference between getting in a guys face and giving him a piece of your mind, and then doing that while also putting your hands on him. I don’t think Pruitt should be fired for this, or even suspended, or even severely reprimanded, but come on, its unacceptable.

I don’t want to spend all day on this stuff because I already wrote about this on Saturday night, but Pruitt does need to find a way to calm himself down on the sidelines and not lose his cool when the calls don’t go his way. He took himself out of the game on Saturday because he thought the officials were jobbing him. You can hate the calls all you want, and some of them weren’t great, and it’s fine to voice your displeasure, but you can’t allow yourself to be consumed by your rage at the officials either. The head coach is the leader of the team and has a duty to his staff and players to keep himself composed on the sidelines as much as humanly possible. Going to your local radio network and ripping the officials at halftime is far from that.

In other news, the Vols picked up a trio of commitments this week from Memphis linebackers Bryson Eason, Martavius French, and Tamarion McDonald, who are all teammates at Whitehaven. French and McDonald decommitted from Arkansas and Mississippi State a couple of days prior and decided to stay in state.

 The high school talent in Tennessee is probably the best it’s ever been, thanks to the population booms in the metro areas of Nashville and Memphis, and it’s a good sign that Pruitt was able get three 4 star instate guys to come wear orange. Every coach that’s come through Knoxville has talked about putting up a fence around the state, and they’ve accomplished that to varying degrees. The present day would be the best time in the history of the prograrm to actually make that a reality.

Of course, there’s not a Tennessee coach in recent memory that has recruited poorly. Phillip Fulmer was an ace recruiter (at least early on) and built his program by getting players from all over the country, particularly in Georgia and South Carolina. Lane Kiffin had a fantastic class in his lone recruiting period; his problem was that he bolted after one year and that almost all of his guys transferred or got in trouble. Derek Dooley was probably the worst recruiter in the modern history of the program, but even he was able to get studs and NFL players on campus. Butch Jones had monster teams in 2015 and 2016 that were loaded with NFL guys he had recruited. The point is, getting four and five star guys in Knoxville has never been a problem; what’s screwed the Vols has been what’s happened when those recruits show up to campus. Talent is obviously important in the making of football players, but the second step is harnessing that talent and maximizing it on the field within the team concept. The best programs have very few whiffs in the recruiting process; they have even fewer whiffs once those players show up on campus.

Is Pruitt going to be able to maximize the talent he recruits? Unclear at this point. If he’s going to be a success, he’ll need to. But at least he’s landing guys.

In regards to South Carolina on Saturday, I mean, if JG is going to be the starter (and it looks that way with Brian Maurer out with a concussion), good luck. That guy is damaged goods at this point, and if he had any confidence left, it was probably all taken away this week when Pruitt got asked during a media appearance about his opinion on the fans in Neyland booing JG when he takes the field.

I’m not really a big “boo the guy on the team you’re rooting for” guy, though if fans want to, that’s their prerogative. I was at the game in 2011 for Matt Simms’s senior night, and when he came out to be introduced with the rest of his graduating class, he got booed by a pretty good chunk of the stadium. I get it, he was a pretty bad Vol quarterback, but really?

Guarantano has been really bad this season. But don’t we want him to play well on Saturday? Everyone in that stadium is going to want to beat South Carolina; isn’t JG having a really good game one of the best ways for that to happen? 

Tennessee can’t win if they are terrified of letting him throw. He doesn’t need to throw 30+ passes for them to be victorious, but this isn’t a Mississippi State situation either where they’ll be able to get away with him passing seven times either.

Will Muschamp is 7-0 in his head coaching career against Tennessee. There’s never been a worse coach in the history of college football to start out 7-0 against a single opponent than ole Will. The Vols could’ve won all of their last six against Muschamp but instead crapped each of them away. If Jeremy Pruitt really has this thing going in the right direction, this is a game, at home, that he wins, or good lord, is at least competitive in. They should be, especially considering the fact that South Carolina doesn’t have the talent to come in there and blow them out.

Pruitt said this week that the Gamecocks had the best defensive line of any team the Vols have faced this season, but with the improvement the offensive line has shown over the last few weeks, Tennessee shouldn’t get blown off the ball and pushed around like a Derek Dooley team circa 2011. Or hell, any other Vol team the last decade-plus.

The Vol defense has improved since the mess that they were at the beginning of the season, and now rank 49^th nationally in yards allowed per game. They’ve also intercepted 10 passes, tied for sixth most in the country, and will be ready for Gamecock QB and true freshman Ryan Hilinski to throw them a few. Hilinski is yet have a real stinker this season; why not on Saturday against the opportunistic Tennessee defense?

Tim Jordan has emerged as the feature back for the Vols (he had 17 carries for 94 yards in the Alabama game, compared to just 4 and 3 carries for Ty Chandler and Eric Gray), but I think the staff probably trusts all three runners to carry the ball over 15 times a game if need be. The bigger concern about this Vol offense, particularly with Guarantano, is the passing game. The only consistent receiving threat in 2019 has been Jauan Jennings, but this is also the same guy who has deflected two passes off his own hands and into the waiting arms of defensive backs this season. Outside of Jennings, no Vol had more than two catches last week. Marquez Callaway is probably the most disappointing Tennessee skill guy since…. I don’t even know who. Bryce Brown? The guy came out like Randy Moss two years ago against Georgia Tech and has made exactly one big play in 20+ games since then, his long TD catch on a double move against Georgia. He had 1 catch for 13 yards last week. How can he not get open consistently? Jauan Jennings's 40 time is probably slower than Bubba from Bulls Gap who sits on his couch and eats popcorn, Cheetos, and Mt. Dew for dinner every night, and yet, he finds a way to get open 10-12 times a game. Dominic Wood-Anderson is supposedly a super athlete, but outside of Guarantano missing him for what would’ve been a long TD against Florida, have you ever expected him to make a play at any time during a game? Tyler Byrd had three catches and a long TD against Mississppi State, but was so irrelevant in the Alabama game that I actually thought he stole Harry Potter’s Invisibility Cloak.

The counter to all of that of course is that the quarterback play has been so bad in Knoxville that even if any of these guys were good, we’d have no way of knowing it because Guarantano has taken most of the snaps and has been one of the worst quarterbacks in school history. A lot of Saturday is going to be riding on Guarantano, which should make everyone wearing orange nervous.

If Tennessee loses, they’ll have to win out to finish 6-6 and be bowl eligible. From 1981-2004, the Vols made a bowl game every year except for one. In the 14 seasons since then, they’ve only played in seven of them. The last head coach to win the SEC without going to a bowl game in his first two seasons was… Johnny Majors in 1990, strangely enough, who actually went 5-5-1 in his second year, or .500. The problem for Pruitt is that its now easier than ever to make a bowl game, as there are 40 of these suckers every year and you don’t even have to have a winning record to go. Not making one for back to back seasons as a coach at Tennessee is a travesty, no matter how “bare” the cupboard was when he took over.

I want Pruitt to be successful. I do. Gotta win this week.

Prediction: Tennessee (gulp)

Now, onto the rest of the week…

#13 Wisconsin at #3 Ohio State

Saturday’s Big Noon Kickoff took a bit of a hit last week when Wisconsin Butch’d the hell out of the Illinois game, blowing a nine point fourth quarter lead and losing a game they were favored in by 30.5 points on a last second field goal. Ohio State-Wisconsin was looking like one of the best games in the country this season; now... eh?

The Badgers have the number 1 ranked defense in the country but haven’t played an offense anywhere close to the level of what the Buckeyes have. Ohio State ranks first in the Big Ten in yards and points per game; the best conference offense the Badgers have faced is Michigan, who ranks 9^th in yards per game and 8^th in points per game. Ohio State’s defense is no slouch either; they rank second in both yards allowed and points per game allowed. Plus, they've allowed the fewest plays of 30+ yards in the entire country.

The Buckeyes are favored by 14.5 points this week, and I’m going to go ahead and lock them in as the Bet The Mortgage Pick of the Week. We’re 3-1 on those so far this season thanks the Oklahoma’s destruction of West Virginia last week. Ohio State has won every game by at least 24 points and may be the best team in the country. I don’t see a way for the Badgers to keep this within three touchdowns. 

This game is the classic example of the Big Ten West team that beats up on their crappy schedule, only to play a big boy from the East who has better athletes, which leads to them getting run off the field. Why do you think a team from the Western Division hasn’t won the conference since the Badgers did in 2012 (a year that the undefeated Buckeyes were ineligible for the conference championship due to NCAA violations, by the way)? Because the Western Division is the JV of the Big Ten. Ohio State and Penn State have been the best teams in the conference the last three-plus years, and whoever wins their showdown in late November is going to be the Big Ten Champ, just like they were the last three years.

Tough start for the Big Noon Kickoff on Fox by the way. They launched this new, huge pregame show on Saturdays to compete with College Gameday, but I haven’t found myself flipping over there once this season. Maybe it has something to do with the fact that Urban Meyer is on TV and working there like the whole, “I had an assistant coach who was smacking his wife around, and I knew about it but did nothing except keep him employed” thing never happened. He’s going to kick ass at USC whenever he takes that job next year, but that dude is a used car salesman.

And then there’s the games at noon, which have mostly been drubbings or on-paper yawn fests. Oklahoma-Texas is basically the only game that lived up to the billing, and even that was a two touchdown game late in the fourth quarter. Saturday is going to be a Buckeye demolition, and the choices for next week are an abominable. I mean, they could literally get TCU-Oklahoma State on November 2^nd. That’s great for ESPN 2 at 3:30, but for your marquee game of the day? For the BIG NOON KICKOFF? Yikes.

Prediction: Ohio State

#6 Penn State at Michigan State

Sparty hasn’t played since they got drubbed by Wisconsin 38-0 on October 12. They’ve scored 17 points total against the three best teams they’ve played (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Arizona State), and only have two wins against Power 5 teams in 2019, Indiana and Northwestern (who is now 1-5). Ah, the stalwarts of the Big Ten!

Meanwhile, Penn State is undefeated and coming off an almost choke job against Michigan, a game they led 21-0 at halftime but only won 28-21. The Wolverines were a dropped end zone pass on fourth down late in the game from tying it and potentially sending it to overtime.

Is all the shine gone from Mark Dantonio? Since the Spartans got shut out in the playoff against Alabama in 2015, they’ve gone a paltry 24-21 and 15-16 in the Big Ten. The offense is a disaster, Dantonio is as grumpy as ever, and all the juice in the program feels like its gone. Dantonio isn’t getting any younger either; he’s 63 and has already had some health problems.

The decline in East Lansing is starting to feel eerily similar to the end of Frank Beamer at Virginia Tech. Dantonio hasn’t been as successful as Beamer was, but they were both great coaches who seemed to lose it overnight. Beamer won ten games or more every year from 2004-2011, and then out of nowhere dropped to a measly 29-23 in his last four seasons from 2012-2015, which led to his retirement. Beamer Ball died in those four years, and Virginia Tech became a shell of the program that they were, a dip they still haven’t quite recovered from. This is Dantonio’s fourth year since his last Big Ten title. Michigan State was never an offensive powerhouse with him in charge, but they’ve been atrocious the last year and half. They don't have a quarterback, and they really struggle to move the ball against good teams. It's far from the program that won three Big Ten Titles from 2010-2015.

Penn State is going to go to East Lansing and win easily.

Prediction: Penn State

#8 Notre Dame at #19 Michigan

There was a conversation I saw this week between Fox’s Joel Klatt and Colin Cowherd about Michigan’s place in the history of college football and the job that Jim Harbaugh has done. I linked it above if you're interested in watching it. 

I normally enjoy those two, but I was flabbergasted at the excuses they were making for Harbaugh. Does Jim have naked pictures of them? Acting like Michigan is not on the same level as Ohio State historically is laughable. Do they realize that Michigan is the all time winningest program in the history the sport? Or that the Wolverines lead the all time series between them and Ohio State 58-50-6?

Here are a few "highlights" of the discussion....

“Bo Schembechler didn’t win a national championship at Michigan”. Yeah, because Bo was terrible in bowl games. Does that mean that Michigan didn’t have the talent to win a national title with Bo multiple times? Bo finished in the top ten every year from 1969-1978, and six more times after that between 1979 and 1989. Plus, he captured at least a share of the Big Ten title 13 times and played in ten Rose Bowls. Come on. That’s a dumb talking point. If Bo takes care of business in a few bowl games, he wins a national title, maybe even a couple. Acting like he wasn't in position almost every year to do that is disingenuous.

“Ohio State has a lot more 11 win seasons than Michigan”. Another dumb argument. The Buckeyes did that all seven years with Urban Meyer, but they happened to get Urban and peak in the era of college football where the best teams play 14 games a year, meaning it was easier for Ohio State to accrue more 11 win seasons, because they had more chances to win games. Michigan's program hasn't been on the top of it's game in the 14 game era of college football. In fact, Bo only played more than 12 games once in his entire coaching career. One of the reasons Harbaugh has never won 11 games at Michigan is because his teams have never been good enough to play in 14 games. He’s had two opportunities to win 11 games in a 13 game season, but lost his bowl game both times. He could get a 14^th game (and thus another chance to win an 11th game) if he could actually win his division for once.

“Jim Harbaugh has restored Michigan to their historical averages”. You aren’t paying Jim Harbaugh $7 million to get 9 wins a year and go 0-4 (about to be 0-5) against Ohio State and not win his division, let alone the conference, for five straight years. Heading into 2019, Ohio State has 837 wins over 123 seasons of football, or an average of 6.8 wins per year. Michigan, in 140 seasons of football, has 953 wins and has averaged… 6.8 wins per season. These are the same programs, and the fact that Michigan has been poor recently doesn’t mean that the expectations should all the sudden be vastly lower in Ann Arbor.

Harbaugh has been a disappointment any way you slice it. Bo Schembechler went 11-9-1 against Ohio State. Harbaugh is going to be 0-5 after Thanksgiving. Bo never went more than three years between conference championships; Harbaugh has never won a conference championship anywhere and is on his way to being 0 for 5 at Michigan. He doesn’t have to be Nick Saban to be a success in Ann Arbor, but what he’s been for what he’s being paid isn’t acceptable either.

Of course, the Wolverines are kind of stuck with him also, not only from a financial perspective, but also from a relevance point of view. Let’s say that some rich Michigan booster says screw it, we’re firing this guy at the end of the year, or Harbaugh gets his feelings hurt and jumps to the NFL. Who do you hire then? And are you sure that guy is an upgrade? Sure, they probably wouldn’t shell out $7 million for whoever they replace him with, which will help financially, but this program hired Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke between Lloyd Carr and Harbaugh, and the program fell off the side of a cliff during those two tenures. Harbaugh doesn’t beat the programs the Michigan fans want to beat, but at least he wins 9 games a year and creates buzz. You never want to fire/lose a coach and then bring in a guy who isn’t an upgrade (ask Tennessee). Who is the definite improvement out there? And while there very well may be, what if you don’t hire him? Would you rather be 9-3 every year and lose to Ohio State, but make a bowl game and finished ranked, or go 6-6 or 5-7 every year and never beat anyone? That’s the boat Tennessee is in and I can assure you it sucks. Of course, Tennessee was in the Harbaugh boat with Fulmer at the end and were a pretty unhappy program. Then they fired him and then started whiffing on his replacements. That’s pretty awful too. The Wolverines kind of feel trapped here.

In regards to Saturday’s home game against Notre Dame, I think its going to be another tough game for the Michigan offense. The Irish have allowed more than 23 points only once this season, and will have had an extra week prepare for whatever the limited Wolverine offense can throw at them. I think this will probably be a low scoring game because the Irish have a hard time running the ball against the better defenses they’ve played (they only rushed for 46 yards against Georgia), but I like ND’s Ian Book much more than Michigan’s Shea Patterson, who is only completing 57.4% of his throws this season. Yikes.

Prediction: Notre Dame

#9 Auburn at #2 LSU

LSU has won 9 of the last 12 in this rivalry, and hasn’t lost to Auburn in Baton Rouge since 1999. I’ve said all year that Auburn was going to be a three or four loss team, despite how good they looked earlier in the season, and they’ll pick up loss number 2 somewhere around 7 o’clock Eastern Time. The shine is gone from Bo Nix a little bit, but I guess that’s what happens when you stop getting lucky with launching 12 jump balls a game. 

I went through the stats with LSU’s offense two weeks ago, but they’re in the top five in the country in every relevant statistical category, which is still shocking coming from a team coached by Ed Orgeron, whose natural tendency would’ve been to revert to the Les Miles “run into the line of scrimmage and fall down” offense. Their offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger deserves a lot of credit for transitioning that side of the ball into a clever, 21^st century attack, something that wasn’t on anyone’s radar before the year started. I certainly never expected Joe Burrow to be this good; he looked like your typical mediocre college quarterback last season; now, he could be a first round draft pick, and, depending on if they beat Alabama, win the SEC, and make the playoff, the Heisman Trophy winner. Strange.

LSU will win by ten points at least, but they have higher goals than just winning tomorrow. I’ve written this a million times, and I’ll continue to again: Ed Orgeron is probably never going to beat Alabama and Saban, but if there was ever a year for him to do it, it would be this season. Everything is lined up for him, and even Tua is injured now and might not be 100% when these two teams play on November 9.

Prediction: LSU
Enjoy football this weekend, you deserve it.