Friday, October 31, 2014

The Frustrating Career of Peyton Manning, plus Game Picks





One of the biggest games in the NFL year in and year out occurs this weekend, as the Denver Broncos travel across the country to New England to take on the Patriots. It’s Manning-Brady Bowl XVI. Brady and the Patriots have a 10-5 advantage over Manning’s teams, but it’s going to be 10-6 after this weekend. Denver is head and shoulders above everyone else in the NFL right now, and as great as New England has played this month, their victories have come against the, “We couldn’t slow down a middle school offense” Bears, the, “We don’t know what we’re doing” Jets, and the, “We haven’t been good since the Music City Miracle” Bills. Not exactly a Murderer’s Row.

 

The most compelling thing about this weekend’s game is actually Manning himself, who, in his late 30s, is putting up his best numbers ever. His stats have been so good that if he was a baseball player, we’d suspect him of using steroids. Manning has no doubt benefited from a softer NFL, in which the rules no longer allow for defenders to blast receivers going over the middle, graze the quarterbacks anywhere except the torso, or touch receivers when the ball is in the air. Still, Manning has been great, and is in the running to win an unprecedented sixth NFL MVP award.

 

For someone who loves sports as much as I do, I guess it’s a little strange that I don’t really passionately root for that many teams. I’m a huge Braves and Vols fan, but other than that, I mostly just enjoy watching great players and teams go at it every week. I do have a few favorite athletes though. Manning has been one of those guys, mostly because of his Tennessee association. I don’t really remember his time playing for the Vols (I was four years old during his senior season), but I do remember having an orange shirt with the number 16 on it, as well as feeling this obligation and push from the adults around me to root for him. Honestly, I’m not really sure why that was the case. In fact, I’m not sure there’s an athlete in the country that has a stronger connection to the fan base of his college team than Manning. I mean, this dude is universally LOVED by the Vol Nation. Do all the Michigan fans love Tom Brady, and follow his every step in the NFL? Do all the Cal fans love Aaron Rodgers, and passionately cheer for him? I don’t think they do. But with Manning, it’s different.

 

Because of Manning, I became a Colts fan. I watched as many of their games as I could, had my grandmother buy me a Manning jersey, purchased and wore Colts merchandise, and was disappointed when they lost. In fact, of the ten most devastating sports’ losses of my life, Manning and the Colts are involved in at least three of them. Any time you flame out as a higher seeded home team in the playoffs, it’s disappointing (something Manning’s teams have done 5 times in his career). And when you couple that with his 10-12 playoff record, that’s a lot of heartbreak for a young me to cope with.

 

In the 2012 off-season, when Manning was released by Indy and signed with Denver, I didn’t hold onto my Colts fandom. It probably had something to do with the fact that I was just a Manning fan, and he was the only reason I rooted for them. I didn’t become a Broncos’ fan, but I did intently observe them that season. They got off to a slow start (2-3), but they followed it up with 11 straight wins and ended the year with the best record in the AFC, giving them home field advantage throughout the playoffs. I remember lying on the couch in my parents’ house, cautiously watching their Divisional Playoff game against the Ravens. And in typical Manning playoff fashion, Denver lost. Yes, it wasn’t Manning’s fault that Joe Flacco completed that miracle pass over Rahim Moore to Jacoby Jones, but he wasn’t exactly stellar in that game either (28-43, 290 yards 3 TDs, two picks). Plus, he committed the biggest turnover of the season with an atrocious throw across his body in overtime that set Baltimore up with a short field for what was ultimately the game winning field goal.  

 

After that game, I remember being so frustrated with Manning, and all of his playoff disappointments re-entered into my mind. There were so many; the 41-0 blowout at the hands of the Jets in the 2002 Wild Card Round; back-to-back physical beat downs at the hands of the Patriots in the ’03 and ’04 playoffs; the embarrassing and inexcusable home loss to the 6th seeded Steelers in the 2005 Divisional Playoffs (Manning’s first loss as a one seed); the similarly disappointing home loss to the Chargers 2 years later; the loss as a 12-4 team traveling to play the 8-8 division winning Chargers in the 2008 Wildcard Round; the Super Bowl loss to the Saints when Manning threw a late, soul crushing, pick six; and finally, the 2010 AFC Wild Card Round loss to Mark Sanchez and the Jets. But it doesn’t end there. Manning’s teams have lost their first playoff game eight times in his career, an NFL record.

 

Now obviously, Manning is just 1 of 53 guys on a NFL roster, and he doesn’t deserve all the blame for the playoff exits. He isn’t even on the field half the time. But it’s hard to not be critical of him, because he does touch the ball more than anyone else, and he’s been so great in the regular season. He holds/will hold all the passing records when his career is over, he’s won five league MVPs, and he’s always physically and mentally prepared to play every game. Plus, it’s not like he’s never gotten it done in the playoffs. They did win the Super Bowl in 2006, and he led the Colts back from a 21-3 deficit in that AFC Championship game against Brady and the Pats. So he is capable. And knowing that makes it that much more frustrating when they crumble and come up short.

 

In fact, “frustrating” is a perfect word to describe Manning’s career. I’ve felt frustrated at the end of all but two of Manning’s seasons (2004, when he broke Dan Marino’s TD passing record, and 2006, when they won the Super Bowl. And yes, I realize he broke almost every season passing record last year, but we’ve seen him put up great numbers for about a decade and a half. 2004 was the first season that he really started putting out those cartoonish numbers we expect from him. We’re used to it. Now, he’s only going to leave people ultimately satisfied if they win the Super Bowl). Every other year has ended with an embarrassing playoff loss. And if you don’t like me describing it that way, then how about this: he’s had the ultimate “Yeah, but….” career. That’s how he’ll be remembered. When discussing his legacy, this conversation will probably happen a zillion times:

 

Person 1: “Look at those numbers! 500+ TD passes, over 70,000 passing yards, multiple MVPs, etc. Manning’s the greatest of all time!”

 

Person 2: “Yeah, but he also lost more playoff games than any quarterback, had more early playoff exits than anyone, and turned into Tony Romo in multiple playoff games. Don’t you feel like he left a lot on the table? He had the potential to be the unquestioned greatest quarterback of all time, and maybe greatest football player in the history of the NFL, but instead, he’s just ONE of many greats. I realizing I’m kind of splitting hairs, but any time you’ve got an opportunity to be the greatest to ever do something, and are given multiple opportunities to demonstrate that you are, only you fail year after year after year, that’s really disappointing to me.”

 

That Super Bowl loss last year to the Seahawks was a perfect example of that. Obviously, Seattle was better, and they demonstrated that on the field, but there was no reason to lose that game 43-8. Manning, with just a good performance (they didn’t even have to win), could’ve given a boost to his historical reputation. But with the way that game turned out, on that huge national stage, it’s going to be hard for the public to forget about. It’s been burned into our memories.

 

Manning’s only hope is to take care of business this year, run through the playoffs, and win the Super Bowl. Denver has been the best team in the league for the first eight weeks, as that offense is clicking like they did last year, and the defense has a physical edge that they lacked last season. They’ve assembled one of the best rosters possible in the modern NFL. There aren’t any excuses for Denver (and Manning) this year. And if he can’t get it done this season, with this roster? Watch out, because he’s going to get excoriated by the media. But if they do win this year, then the media will celebrate him like he’s Michael Jordan, and (almost) everything will be forgotten.

 

Now, quickly onto my NFL picks. I’ll offer a few thoughts where necessary. As always, the victor is in CAPS.

 

Bucs at BROWNS

 

Jags at BENGALS

 

CARDINALS at Cowboys

 

Arizona isn’t getting enough love nationally, probably because they aren’t elite at quarterback, but that doesn’t mean this team isn’t really good, as they’ve got victories over the Chargers, 49ers, and Eagles this season. On Sunday, they get the Cowboys, on a short week, with Tony Romo coming off a back injury he suffered last week against the Redskins. Plus, I think we’ve forgotten how good this Arizona defense is. If you take out that Denver game, the Cardinals haven’t allowed more than 24 points to any team all year. They’ll win on Sunday.

 

EAGLES at Texans

 

Jets at CHIEFS

 

CHARGERS at Dolphins

 

This will be a bounce back game for the Chargers, who are coming off back-to-back division losses. Miami, who sits at 4-3, has looked pretty impressive over the last few weeks, but they've also had the sixth easiest schedule in the NFL this season. San Diego has been so banged up this year, but they’ll get Donald Brown back at running back this week, which should help a little bit. Plus, I just have a feeling we’re going to get a huge Phil Rivers game on Sunday. He was my MVP after Week 6, but he’s struggled the last two games (he completed less than 55% of his passes against the Chiefs, and he threw two huge picks against Denver). San Diego will get back on track this week.

 

Redskins at VIKINGS

 

Rams at 49ERS

 

Raiders at SEAHAWKS

 

Seattle “got it together” last week, as they squeaked by a mediocre Panthers’ team in Carolina. Something was up (and still may be) in that locker room. There was talk the last few weeks about how Russell Wilson was losing the team because he wasn’t “black enough”, which sounds ludicrous. I think the biggest problem was that the team wasn’t winning. They got physically overpowered by Dallas, and followed that up with an embarrassing loss in St. Louis. Plus, they traded Percy Harvin, which created a lot of drama, particularly when it came out that he’d been a clown and a cancer in that locker room ever since he’d arrived from Minnesota. All of that crap just morphed together and created a bunch of noise. That’s why that game last week was so important. If they’d lost that one, then the season could’ve potentially spiraled into name-calling, selfishness, and bad football. But they won, and they’re still alive. Plus, they get the best cure for poor play on the field this week, as the Raiders are coming to town. Oakland is clueless, and I’d believe just about any terrible outcome for this team. 0-16? Yeah, it’s definitely in play.

 

BRONCOS at Patriots

 

Ravens at STEELERS

 

COLTS at Giants

 

 

Now I can’t ignore the college game, which has got some massive games this week as well, including the first ever de facto playoff elimination game, #3 Auburn at #4 Ole Miss. Let’s start there.

 

#3 Auburn at #4 OLE MISS

 

I can’t believe I’m siding with Rebels and Bo Wallace in a big spot, particularly after that dumpster fire on Saturday night. I just don’t think Auburn’s that good of a team. Besides blowing out LSU (who was starting a Brandon Harris, freshman in his first game on the road), where are their impressive wins? Yeah, they won at Kansas State, but the Wildcats outplayed them the entire night. I’m not saying they’re garbage, but there’s no way they should be in the playoff over Alabama. Ole Miss will have the best defense in that game, they’re at home, and Bo, besides the aforementioned colossal failure last week, has had a nice season (2,075 yards, 18 passing TDs). I’m crossing my fingers, closing my eyes, and rolling the dice with the Rebels this week. It may come back to bite me.

 

#7 Tcu at #20 WEST VIRGINIA

 

On Monday, I picked West Virginia to win the Big 12, because I think they have the easiest remaining schedule of all the conference contenders (their two biggest games left are this week against TCU, and on November 20th against K-State, both of which are at home). Of course, TCU could easily come out and just move the ball at will on that mediocre Mountaineers defense. I mean, they scored 82 points last week against Texas Tech. Then again, the Horned Frogs have a worse defense than WVU, and that, coupled with the Mountaineers being at home, in front of those rabid fans, makes me think West Virginia will be able to squeak one out this week.

 

Florida vs #11 GEORGIA (in Jacksonville)

 

This game will go down as the nail in the coffin for Will Muschamp. I think Georgia is just going to absolutely put it on the Gators for 60 minutes, and win by at least 4 touchdowns. Florida is completely outmatched in this game, and they’re going to get destroyed. I still can’t believe the Vols pulled a Derek Dooley and lost to this Gators’ team. Sheesh. Regardless, Georgia will win for the 4th straight time over Florida, the first time that’s happened since the early ‘80s.

 

TENNESSEE OVER South Carolina

 

I’m making this pick solely because I believe in Josh Dobbs and the magic he showed last week. Do you realize that if the Vols go 2-2 over their final 4 games (making them 5-7), Butch Jones will have a worse record in his first two years than Derek Dooley? I believe that Butch, despite the problems I’ve had with him, is far superior to Dooley as a coach, and therefore, can’t have a worse two year run then Dooley did. But it’s in play. Fortunately for the Vols, the Gamecocks have an awful defense, and I think the Vols will be able to move it down the field with relative ease. If they can outscore Alabama over the last 3 quarters last Saturday, I think they should be able to do it all game to a bad South Carolina team.

 

Stanford at #5 OREGON

 

If you’d asked me to pick this game a month ago, there’s no doubt I’d pick the Cardinal, just because I thought they had that Oregon match up figured out. But now, I’m going to have to side with the Ducks. Stanford doesn’t have that same physical, pounding, running style on offense that gave Oregon so much trouble the last two years. Plus, they aren’t as great in the front seven on defense. All that, coupled with the fact that this game is at Oregon, in Autzen Stadium, will be too much for Stanford to overcome. Oregon will win.

 

Other college picks:

 

#24 DUKE at Pittsburgh (Watch out for Duke in the Coastal Division! Could they really win that division two years in a row? They’re in first place.)

 

Arkansas at #1 MISSISSIPPI STATE

 

#10 NOTRE DAME at Navy

 

#12 ARIZONA at #22 Ucla (has there been a bigger phony than the Bruins this season? For all this talk about them being national title contenders, they’ve been extremely disappointing. They’ve only looked impressive in one game this year, against Arizona State. Heck, they needed double overtime last week to beat Colorado. Colorado!)

 

#17 UTAH at #14 Arizona State (I’m a believer in the Utes! Watch out Oregon! It's going to be tough at Utah in two weeks!)

 

Like always, enjoy football this weekend. You deserve it.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

My 2014-15 NBA Preview


 
 
The 2014-15 NBA season tips off tonight, and I couldn’t be happier. My Angry Old Man, who likes the NBA regular season about as much as he likes passing a kidney stone, has been on my back for months, giving me a hard time about how giddy I’ll be when basketball season starts again. Well, I’m sorry to disappoint you Pops, but the beginning of the NBA season brings me about as much joy as opening Christmas presents does for a six year old. I love this league more than the Cookie Monster loves cookies. I love the history of the game, the athleticism of the players, the science of the sport, and the competitiveness on the court. Plus, it’s like a good friend, something that’s always there for me if I’m ever bored on a cold winter night.

 

Over the last month, I’ve been trying to hold off writing about the league, because while I do love it, I recognized that the middle of the football season was more important. Last week though, I finally gave in and wrote two posts about basketball, one about the career of LeBron James, and the other about Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder. You can find those here and here. But there’s more to the league than that. And since I’ve got so many thoughts about this upcoming season, I thought I’d rank every team, in reverse order, from 30 to 1. But why stop there? Why not, while simultaneously ranking the teams, group them together with those squads around them? And while I’m at it, why not have the group names reflect the feel and identity of the teams for the season?

 

So, without further ado, my NBA team rankings…..

 

 

We are trying to lose, and we don’t care to shamelessly take money from our fans.

 

30. Philadelphia 76ers

 

The Sixers unapologetically tanked last year, and they’ll do it again this season. You knew they weren’t interested in being competitive this year when they drafted a guy with a serious foot injury, Joel Embiid, who will probably play as many NBA minutes this season as I will. And then you look at that roster; Henry Sims starting at center? Really? Henry Sims isn’t a household name in his own house. They’ve only got three guys on their roster that they really care about (Embiid, Michael Carter-Williams, and Nerlens Noel); other than that, it’s a roster full of 12th men and D-League guys. Is 12-70 a realistic record for these guys? I think so.

 

We aren’t trying to lose, but we don’t really care if we win, so you probably shouldn’t waste your money going to our games this season.

 

29. Utah Jazz

28. Boston Celtics

27. Milwaukee Bucks

26. Orlando Magic

25. Minnesota Timberwolves

 

More bad basketball teams. A few bright spots:

  • Rajon Rondo will not be a member of the Celtics at the end of the season. It’s been a nice run for Rondo in Boston, but he’s not part of their long term rebuilding plan, he’s in the last year of his contract, and there’s a greater chance of Andrew Bynum, his afro, and his bad knees having a meaningful NBA moment than Rondo re-signing there. He’s going to get traded, because the Celtics can’t let an asset like that walk for nothing. So where will he be dealt? Sacramento has been mentioned a lot in trade rumors, because the Kings have a new owner who would love more than anything to make a big splash. Honestly though, there’s no way that trade is happening, because Rondo’s not going to sign a long term deal there. It’s Sacramento (not exactly a major market), and can you really see him looking around and deciding that he wants to align himself for the rest of his prime with Boogie Cousins? I love Boogie, but he’s…. unpredictable. And that’s putting it lightly. Charlotte is also a potential trade partner, but I can’t see them wanting to put together a backcourt of Rondo, Kemba Walker, and Lance Stephenson, three guys who can’t shoot. Detroit has also been mentioned, but I can’t see Rondo signing a long term deal there either. Plus, besides Josh Smith, what else can/would the Pistons really offer that would be intriguing for the Celtics? There really isn’t anything there. I think it comes down to one team actually, the Knicks. They may end up needing a third team to complete the deal, but they’ve got some intriguing parts (Andrea Bargnani’s expiring contract, Tim Hardaway Jr.), as well as the Zen Master, Phil Jackson, running their organization. He may brainwash other NBA GM’s into doing what he wants. Or he might be a colossal failure. I have no idea. But I think he pulls off the Rondo trade, and he convinces him to sign a long term contract in New York. Plus, it’s a good deal for the Knicks, because it gives them a second star, as well as a guy that’s willing to pass and encourage movement away from the ball, because the entire Knickerbocker roster is full of guys who love to catch and chuck shots (I’m looking at you Carmelo and J.R. Smith).
  • The Greek Freak! Watch this highlight film! He’s probably the most unknown and curious young player in the Association, because I literally have no idea if he’s going to end up being one of the ten best players in the league, or an incredible disappointment. And I don’t think anyone else knows either.
  • The only fun thing about this T’Wolves’ season will be counting the Ricky Rubio-to-Andrew Wiggins alley oops. Because there’s going to be a lot of those. But this team still stinks. This is a squad that’s going to be relying on Anthony Bennett to play major minutes, a guy who is on his way to being the worst number 1 pick ever that didn’t have a major injury. But make no mistake, he injured every Cavs fan with his play last season.

 

We are going to pretend that we are actually a legitimate playoff threat, even though everyone knows that isn’t true.

 

24. Los Angeles Lakers

23. Sacramento Kings

22. Detroit Pistons

 

  • For all the talk the last few months about Kobe murdering the Lakers’ season with his contract (which isn’t completely ridiculous, considering he’ll be making $23.5 million and $25 million over the next two years, with no guarantee that he’ll be the old Kobe because of Achilles and leg injuries the last two seasons), I think we’ve missed out on the possibility that this might be the most Kobe season ever. This roster is horrible, and I’m sure Kobe will look around, shrug his shoulders, and chuck as many shots as humanly possible. He might average 30 attempts a game this year, assuming he can stay on the court. Why wouldn’t he? He shot a ton when he had a good roster around him; now, with this group of cast-offs, role players, and Swaggy P, he’s going to be tossing them up at an obscenely high rate. Everyone that goes to a Laker game this season will be there only to watch Kobe, and they’d love to see a throwback, prime Black Mamba performance. Kobe will attempt to oblige them. So yeah, he’ll have some explosive scoring nights, but it ultimately won’t amount to anything other than a few exciting and Sportscenter-worthy nights at the Staples Center.
  • The most exciting thing about this Pistons season will be when new coach and GM Stan Van Gundy tears out all of his little remaining hair after Josh Smith continues to lay enough bricks from 3 point land to build a three bedroom apartment, followed by Brandon Jennings continuing to hog the rock, take terrible shots, and turn the ball over at the worst possible times. The lone bright spot on this team is Andre Drummond, who has the potential to be the best center in the NBA. He’s got the perfect build for a modern big man, and he already rebounds exceptionally well (13.6 per game last year). The only thing holding him back is his lack of post moves, and his Shaq-like efficiency from the foul line (he “improved” to 41.8% last year, up from his rookie year of 37.1%). But assuming he figures out a few things in the post (which is easier said than done) and becomes at least a decent foul shooter (is 65% too much to ask?), he’ll become a multiple time All Star. Heck, he might do that even if he never grows on the offensive end. That’s how good this guy is going to be.

 

We should probably take a page out of the Sixers book and spend the entire season taking a dump on our fans so we can have a chance of getting a top 5 pick.

 

21. Indiana Pacers

20. Denver Nuggets

 

As shameful, embarrassing, and harmful to the league as the Sixers tanking is, at least it’s the smart thing to do, with the way the league is set up. But what Denver has done, and what Indiana will probably do, doesn’t make any sense. The Nuggets seem content to continue to battle for the 8th seed, as they added Arron Afflalo in the off-season, who will only make it easier for them to win 36 games and miss out on a potential blue chip guy in this year’s draft. Denver’s biggest problem is that they don’t have a legitimate NBA superstar. Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried are nice players, but they’ll never be the best guy on a championship team. You aren’t going to win a title without a superstar player, and since Denver has about as much of a chance of attracting one in free agency as I would to survive a punch from prime Mike Tyson right in the mouth, their best bet is the draft.

 

Honestly, the Pacers are in much better position to tank. Paul George’s gruesome injury and Lance Stephenson’s departure have already lowered expectations in Indy, and it’s not like that roster is loaded with talent, or guys that the franchise really cares about keeping around for the long haul. Granted, I still think there’s enough pride in that locker room (mainly from David West) that the Pacers could lock in the entire year, play great defense, ugly up every game, and somehow manage to squeak into the playoffs, where they’d lose in the first round to Cleveland or Chicago. Wouldn’t it make more sense to take it easy this year, hold Paul George out for the entire season, trade Roy Hibbert or David West for assets, have a horrible season, land in top 5 of the lottery, and draft a young stud; then come out next year with a retooled roster, a promising rookie, either West or Hibbert, and a healthy Paul George. Doesn’t the second option look a lot more appealing? I think so.

 

 

We are in New York, so people care about us, but we’ll probably make about as much noise in the postseason as Charlie Chaplin did during his movie career.

 

19. Brooklyn Nets

18. New York Knicks

 

The only thing I liked about Brooklyn’s off-season was when Jason Kidd left to coach the Bucks, and they hired Lionel Hollins to replace him. That’s like going from dating Rosie O’Donnell to dating Jessica Alba. Hollins is a great coach, but unfortunately he’ll be saddled with Joe Johnson and his terrible contract, Deron Williams and his poor attitude (and his underachieving and disappointing play), Brook Lopez and his bad feet, and Kevin Garnett in his 20th year. Plus, they lost Paul Pierce, one of their emotional and spiritual leaders from last year’s team (along with KG), who, at age 36, happened to have a sneaky good season (13.5 points per game, 45% shooting). That’s an old, bad team, one that’s destined for 37 wins in the inferior Eastern Conference.

 

Also, I have no clue what the Knicks are doing. They hired Derek Fisher, a guy who doesn’t have any coaching experience on any level (as well as someone who was in the league last year!), to be their head coach. They also got rid of their only rim protector in Tyson Chandler, though, to be fair, he may not be able to stay healthy for an extended period of time ever again (he turned 32 this month, and has missed a combined 43 games the past two seasons with various ailments). I guess they’re fine with having Amar’e Stoudemire and Andrea Bargnani being their two best big men. The only reason I have them ranked this high is because I think they’re going to land Rondo, which makes them a playoff contender. But if they don’t pull off that trade, this is going to be the worst attempt ever by an NBA team to run the triangle. They’ve got way too many guys like Carmelo and J.R. Smith that love to bomb tough shots, go one on one, stand around on offense, and rather get a prostate exam than pass to their teammates. And then you look at them on the defensive end. Iman Shumpert is their only above average defender. Everyone else ranges somewhere from “middle of the road” to “We don’t care” (Carmelo). It could be a long year in the Big Apple.

 

We have the Brow.

 

17. New Orleans Pelicans

 

No player took a bigger leap last season than Anthony Davis (20.8 points, 10 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks per game on 51.9% shooting). He stopped getting bullied down low like he did his rookie season, and he started to show a lot of promise on the offensive end. A semblance of a post game began to emerge, and he consistently hit that 15-to-18 foot jump shot. Plus, he’s the best shot blocker in the league. He’s the league’s next great player, someone who will be an MVP candidate in 2-3 years. His only problem was that his team had such bad luck with injuries last season. Ryan Anderson missed 60 games, Jrue Holiday broke his leg and missed 48 games, and Eric Gordon is a walking ailment. That’s only 3 of their 5 best players. If they stay relatively healthy, and some of the other Western teams have some bad luck, the Pellies could potentially sneak into the playoffs. Plus, on a side note, I really like the trade they made for Omer Asik. He and Dwight Howard never really figured out how to play together last season, but Asik was a solid contributing center in both Chicago and Houston. He gives them second legitimate big man, something that they were sorely lacking last season.

 

We like our team, so please, just for us, ignore our fatal flaws.

 

16. Miami Heat

15. Atlanta Hawks

14. Phoenix Suns

13. Charlotte Hornets

 

The Heat’s biggest problem (besides losing LeBron for nothing this off-season) is that they now have to rely on Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade’s bad knees to be their two best players. Sure, they added Josh McRoberts and Luol Deng, but are either of those guys capable of being go-to guys in an NBA offense? No, of course not. So it falls to Bosh, who I’m not even sure is that good, and Wade, who missed 28 games last year, to carry the scoring and creating burden for this team. Wade had a decent regular season (19 points per game on 54.5% shooting), but he only played 54 games last year (and no back-to-backs). What if you asked him to play 70 games, and some back-to-backs this season? Could he do it and still be as effective? I have my doubts. He looked done in the Finals last year, and it was alarming how slow he was. He couldn’t get separation from Boris Diaw and his man boobs during certain points of that series. And what has the Boshtrich done the last few years to make you think he’s capable of duplicating the production he had in Toronto? I think they’ll make the playoffs because they’re in the Eastern Conference, and because they’ll be alright defensively, but they won’t win a playoff series.

 

Atlanta should get a huge boost from the return of Al Horford from injury, and they’re one of the most fun teams in league to watch. Anytime a team’s policy on the three point line is “Bombs Away”, it’s going to be exciting. It will be interesting to see how the Hawks incorporate Horford, who is not a three point threat, back into the offense. Last year, they started Pero Antic in his place, giving them 5 guys on the court at the same time that could knock it down consistently from downtown. Unfortunately, being a fun team doesn’t always translate to playoff success. I’m not sure these guys are going to be able to get enough stops defensively. Plus, they don’t have a guy that’s capable of being the best player on a championship team, which is kind of essential. Still, they’ll be a fun team, and they’ll make the playoffs again.

 

The Suns were the biggest surprise in the league last year, but I was confused about the Isaiah Thomas signing. Why bring another good point guard to a team that already has two good point guards? I’m pretty sure Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe would be able to hold down that position this year; they did an excellent job in 2014. They aren’t going to have enough minutes for all three guys, and there’s no way they’d be able to play them together on the court at the same time. Plus, Phoenix got the best possible basketball from both Morris twins, P.J. Tucker, one of the Plumlee brothers, and Gerald Green. Is it really realistic to expect all those guys to play far above the career averages for another season? And what if Dragic slips a little bit this year? He was so instrumental and important in everything they did, and he had to be great for them to have the type of season that they did. But even if all these guys play at the same level as they did last year, this roster isn’t good enough to be a title contender, and it might even miss the playoffs in the brutal Western Conference.

 

Before I say anything about the Hornets, I just want to take this opportunity to bid farewell to the Bobcat name. It’s given us so many good memories over the years, like two playoff appearances, zero playoff victories, Adam Morrison, and a 9-57 season…. Wait a second, there actually wasn’t anything good about the name "Bobcats". I’m glad it’s gone. Charlotte Hornets just sounds right. Plus, I actually really like this team, mostly because they’re one of the few squads that have an actual center (I love post play) in Al Jefferson. Big Al was really good last year (21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game), and it appears that Kemba Walker might be capable of consistently running an NBA offense. Plus, they added Lance Stephenson in the off-season, which is either going to work out perfectly or blow up in their face. He’s going to give them an edge and intensity that no one else brings to that roster, or he’s going to spend the entire year doing Lance things, screwing up the team’s chemistry, and acting like a clown off the court. It’s one or the other. Honestly, as much as I like Lance’s game, I would hate to have to rely on him. I just don’t know what I’m going to get from that guy every night. Plus, with Walker, Lance, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, the Hornets will start three guys who don’t have consistent NBA 3 point range. You can’t win a title in today’s Association if all your perimeter guys are mediocre to awful from downtown.

 

 

 

We are sitting around wondering, “Where is the love?”

 

12. Memphis Grizzlies

11. Toronto Raptors

 

Nobody is really talking about these teams that much heading into the year, probably because one plays in a relatively small market in a NBA neutral state, and the other plays in Canada, but I actually think both these teams are really good. I love the three headed monster that is Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, and Mike Conley, and the Vince Carter addition in the off-season was really underrated. The Grizzlies, despite their offensive limitations (they can’t shoot, and they still don’t really have anyone on their roster that is great from the arc), always seem to be able to hang around. Remember the Oklahoma City series last year? They physically overpowered the Thunder in almost every game, and Tony Allen did the best job I’ve ever seen someone do on Kevin Durant. It’s a shame they’re in the loaded West, where it’s almost impossible to win a series. Then again, I wouldn’t be shocked if they beat up someone in the first round and pulled an upset.

 

Toronto might have the best back court in the league. Kyle Lowry was a beast last year, and Demar Derozan made his first All Star team. They’ll get home court advantage in their first round series, because the Atlantic Division is the worst in the NBA; Boston and Philly aren’t trying, and both the New York teams have major issues. The Raps could win 50 games this year. My only concern with this team is Lowry, because by all accounts, he’s kind of a hard guy to deal with both on and off the court. He’s been underappreciated by almost every team that he's played on, and he’s been waiting for a big pay day for a long time. The Raptors finally came through for him this off-season (4 years, $48 million), and it will be interesting to see how he reacts to finally getting that money. They'll need him to be great once again for them to make a run in playoffs and potentially challenge the Bulls and Cavs (though that’s probably unrealistic).

 

We are going in opposite directions, and honestly, I’m not even sure why we’re grouped together.

 

10. Houston Rockets

9. Washington Wizards

 

The Rockets have blasted in the wrong direction. I’m not sure there’s a “contender” I’m less fond of heading into the season. They lost Chandler Parsons to Dallas, a division rival, and they made up for that by signing Trevor Ariza. When motivated, I’m a fan of Ariza’s game (defense and 3’s), but he’s the classic contract year guy. His two best seasons in the last six both came in contract years (2009 and 2014), and he was somewhere between “non-existent” and “extremely disappointing” when Houston signed him after his big ’09 campaign. I see a similar outcome this time around. Plus, they’ve only got one super competitive guy on the entire roster (Patrick Beverley), and their two “leaders” and best players, James Harden and Dwight Howard, have their own issues. Harden literally doesn’t care about playing defense. He’s out there Carmeloing every night. I’m not saying your best player has to be Dennis Rodman on the defensive end (Dirk wasn’t a great defender when Dallas won the title in 2011), but you can’t have a “I couldn’t care less” attitude towards it either. And then there’s Dwight. I hate to say this, because it sounds like such a lazy criticism, one that Skip Baseless would perpetuate, but he smiles too much. He just does. It just doesn’t appear like winning matters to him that much. I’m not saying every player has to have Michael Jordan’s level of competitive fire, but it’d be nice to see Dwight take things a little more seriously. He’s a terrific player, and if he’d channel his energy into dominating every night, he’d be one of the most unstoppable forces in the league. Everybody remembers Damian Lillard’s shot in Game 6 to beat them last year, but everyone forgets how dominant Dwight was in that fourth quarter. He looked angry, and Portland couldn’t do anything to stop him. He posted up everyone and powered through them. I wish we’d see that version of Howard more often.

 

Washington, on the other hand, is going in the exact opposite direction. They’ve got the best young backcourt in the league, and John Wall played better than any point guard in the East last year. If only Bradley Beal could make it through a season healthy (he’s out for at least the first month with a wrist injury). They overpaid Marcin Gortat this summer, and I still think they’re a few years away from really contending for a title, but they’ll win the Southeast Division.

 

Also, one more Washington-related story to keep an eye on: Could Kevin Durant really pull a LeBron, return “home” (he grew up somewhat close to D.C.), and sign with the Wiz in 2016? It’s an intriguing possibility, and one that’s definitely realistic, when you consider that both Wall and Beal will be entering/already in their prime by the time that happens. You’d then have at least 5 years of prime Durant, Wall, Beal, and whoever you want to throw around them, growing and playing together. Not a bad window of opportunity.

 

We wish this was our year, but unless every team above us has more injuries and bad luck than Bad Luck Brian himself, we’ll probably end up short of our goal.

 

8. Dallas Mavericks

7. Portland Trailblazers

6. Golden State Warriors

 

Ok, that’s probably a slight exaggeration, because if anyone was that unlucky, we’d call them the Cubs. And we all know that the Lovable Losers weren’t ever really contenders. The Mavericks’ season hinges on two questions: Can Dirk have another throwback year like he did last season (21.7 points per game on 49.7% shooting), and how much of an impact will Chandler Parsons have? I like Parsons, but I’m not sure he’s ever going to be good enough to be the 3rd best guy on a title team, which is kind of what Dallas will be asking of him. I thought he fit in perfectly in Houston; he hit threes, played some nice defense, and helped keep the ball moving. If I have title aspirations, I’m not sure I’d want him doing anything more than that. And as far as Dirk is concerned, I have no idea. I thought he was done after his back-to-back disappointing years in 2012 and 2013. After last season? It's completely up in the air. He could go on doing Dirk things at a high level for three or four more years. Or he could break down. Regardless, Dallas is no better than the 6th best team in the West.

 

Portland is really talented, and I love Damian Lillard’s competitive fire and his stones in big games. Plus, LaMarcus Aldridge is one of the most underrated players in the game, and he was unguardable in the first two games of last year’s Rockets series (and he’s largely the reason why they were able to leave Houston with two wins). However, they didn’t do anything in the off-season to address the fact that this is still an abysmal defensive team. Wesley Matthews is the only guy on the roster that can be described as good on that end. I’m sorry Portland, but you aren’t winning a title if you can’t get stops.

 

Golden State is the most interesting team in this group, as they have the potential to get incredibly hot for two rounds, hit an obscene amount of threes, and make the conference finals. Stephen Curry had a great year last season (24 points and 8.5 assists per game on 47.1% shooting, and 42.4% from 3 point land); if he could only take better care of the basketball (3.8 turnovers per game). They had extremely lofty expectations last year, but I think there was a lot going on behind the scenes last season in that locker room. Mark Jackson and the front office didn’t get along, and they had 6 guys that thought they should be starting and finishing every game (and Harrison Barnes had a disappointing sophomore season because of that). Jackson isn’t there anymore, and I’m honestly not sure that’s a bad thing. I don’t think he was a great X’s and O’s guy, and G-State looked a little lost a times on the offensive end. It seemed like a lot of possessions would end with Curry dribbling around and forcing up a three. That’s obviously not a terrible shot for them, but you’d rather there be more consistent movement and continuity on that end. I think new coach Steve Kerr will instill something more solid this season. Ultimately though, I think they’ll come up short. They still need another really good player, and I can’t believe they didn’t pull the trigger on the Kevin Love for David Lee and Klay Thompson trade. I don’t understand the love for Thompson. Yeah, he’s a great shooter, and he’s a pretty good defender, but I don’t know why Golden State’s front office is so intent on hanging onto his 18 points and 3 rebounds per game. Anytime you have the chance to get a guy like Kevin Love, you have to do it.

 

 
We are title contenders, but injuries could blow up our season quicker than when the Death Star leveled Alderaan.

 

5. Oklahoma City Thunder

4. Chicago Bulls

 

I wrote at length about the Thunder last week, but I feel that it’s important to note that this Kevin Durant injury is a bigger deal than people probably think it is. Imagine if he misses the first two months of the season, which is completely realistic. What kind of record are the Thunder going to have when he gets back? And how long will it take Durant to get in shape and return to being the monster that he is? What if they’re in 7th place in West when he suits up again? Are they going to be able to climb over 5 teams to get the 2 seed, which will give them home court in a second round series? That's a lot of teams to jump over, and I can't see them doing that, which means they’ll be on the road for most of the playoffs. That’s never a good thing. This Durant injury is a killer, but it sucks for us as fans as well, because it robs us of two months of prime KD. In fact, the only good thing about the Durant injury is that we get to see what a team looks like that is completely run by Russell Westbrook. How many shots will he take a game? And how badly will he hog the ball in crunch time?  This will be the first time we get to see Westbrook completely unleashed as the number 1 option. Regardless of what their record ends up being, I know I’ll be glued to the T.V.

 

If I had a guarantee that Derrick Rose would be healthy for the entire year, I’d pick the Bulls to win the East. There’s no doubt in my mind. They’re the best defensive team in the NBA, and addition of Pau Gasol is huge for them, because he’s a guy who can help Rose with the offensive load, which is something Chicago hasn't had since they had the best record in the NBA in 2011. Unfortunately, I don’t know what’s going to happen with Rose. I really feel like it’s 50-50 at this point. And even if he doesn’t get re-injured, there’s no guarantee he’ll return to being the old Derrick Rose. Remember the ten games he played last year, when he averaged about 13 points and 4 assists a game? What if he’s that guy this season, and for the rest of his career? Those questions alone are enough for me to look elsewhere in the East.

 

We are the prohibitive favorites to meet in the Finals by most “experts”, but the season isn’t played on paper.

 

3. San Antonio Spurs

2. Cleveland Cavaliers

 

I hate picking against San Antonio, because going against Pop and Duncan is about as smart as wandering out into rush hour traffic, but I just have a feeling that this is the first potential Spurs step back year. How long will Duncan, who turns thirty-nine in April, continue to be an effective NBA player? And are the Spurs going to be able to keep up the same level of consistency and effort this season? They won’t have the haunting loss against the Heat in the 2013 Finals pushing them this year; their whole season was based on that loss, and getting back to the Finals to redeem themselves. And they accomplished that goal, and exorcised all their demons. What’s pushing them this year? They don’t have anger, pain, or redemption anymore. They're going to have a good year, because Pop won't allow them to crumble. But they won't repeat. The motivation isn't there this year.

 

The Cavs are the default champs in the East, because everyone else is awful, isn’t quite ready yet, or is depending on Derrick Rose’s knees. Plus, they’re going to be really fun to watch on the offensive end, and this trio (LeBron, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving) is a much better fit than the one in Miami. Despite all the positives, I’ve got two concerns with Cleveland:

 

  1. Defense is going to be a struggle most nights for this team. Of the five starters, only one is an above average defender (LeBron). Kyrie Irving Carmelos most nights on defense, and Love would rather rebound every shot than contest anything, which oftentimes leads to easy lay ups for the opposition. They don’t have any real rim protectors either, or at least any that scare people. How are they going to defend the pick and roll? And how will they defend teams that have good big men? I have no idea.
  2. Of the Big 3, two of them have never played any playoff minutes. In fact, if you just look at the roster, most of the important players (besides LeBron, Shawn Marion, and Anderson Varejo) have never been in the playoffs. Am I really supposed to expect that a team full of guys who are entirely new to the daily grind of the playoffs are just suddenly going to figure it out in year one and win the title? That’s crazy. I can’t think of any time where that’s ever happened in the history of the NBA.

 

The Cavaliers have a really good team, and I think they’ll win at 65 games this year, but there are big enough questions about the make up of this team to make me look elsewhere. This season, unfortunately, will end in disappointment.   

 

 

We never thought we’d get here, and our fans certainly didn’t, because normally everyone that gets drafted by our team blows their knee out in 500 different places (Danny Manning, Shaun Livingston) or can’t play (Michael Olowokandi, Darius Miles, etc.) or gets traded and ends up being really good somewhere else (Antonio McDyess, Tyson Chandler). Nevertheless, we’re just glad to be here now.

 

1. Los Angeles Clippers

 

We’ve finally made it! Aren’t you happy? And this probably isn’t the prediction you expected. In fact, when I was sitting around the other night thinking about this stuff, I almost had a brain hemorrhage the moment I talked myself into believing in the Clippers. I mean really, it’s the Clippers, who have been the most inept franchise in pro sports since they got to L.A. Are they really going to win a championship? I think they will. They’ve got one of the best coaches in the NBA, in his second year. Everything he wants to do with this team has been implemented, and he’s in total control. They have the best point guard in the league in CP3, the most exciting athlete on a night-to-night basis in Blake Griffin, one of the best rim protectors in the NBA in DeAndre Jordan, and the best heat check/instant offense guy in Jamal Crawford. Plus, I think people forget just how close they were last year; if they don’t blow that huge lead in Game 5 of the Oklahoma City series, they're going back home to Los Angeles with a 3 games to 2 lead. But they couldn’t hold it (which is one of the most inexcusable NBA choke jobs of the last 10 years), and once they lost that game, the whole feel of that series changed, and it was basically over. There was no way they were winning a Game 7 on the road. Plus, all that Donald Sterling stuff had to mess with the team at least a little bit right?

 

But they won’t have to deal with that distraction this year. Sterling is gone, and they have a new owner, Steve Ballmer, a crazy guy who’s willing to throw money around and act like a immature Mark Cuban at games. That guy is ready to win, and he’s willing to do whatever it takes. This will be the Clips year, and amazingly enough, that might be the first time anyone has ever typed that.

Monday, October 27, 2014

The Week in Football: Vols find their QB of the Future, Ole Miss Loses a Heart Breaker, and the NFC South is Horrible


On Saturday night, about 15 minutes after Tennessee had lost to Alabama for the 8th straight year, my Angry Old Man called me. And he did exactly what I expected him to do, which was yell for about 5 minutes. He, despite being very angry, has been a very ardent and steadfast Butch Jones supporter since his introductory press conference. His only concern has been Butch’s repeated decision to, game after game after game, punt on 4th down and short, instead of going for it. His frustration finally boiled over, as Butch punted on a 4th and 1 early in the game, followed by him settling for a field goal after allowing the final 30 seconds to run off the clock in the first half, rather than allowing Josh Dobbs and the offense to take a few shots into the end zone. The following conversation occurred:

 

“They’re overmatched in every single game! What do they have to lose?! Why not take a few shots, and go for it! Steve Spurrier knew that the Gamecocks were overmatched against Auburn, so he went for 6 times on fourth down tonight! Why is Butch so conservative? They aren’t going to beat anyone unless he starts to take some chances! And why hasn’t Josh Dobbs been playing? He was amazing! Once he came in the game, it completely and totally changed the momentum and feel in that stadium. The offensive line started playing better, and the offense actually started to put some drives together. Why have they continued to trot out Nathan Peterman, the worst quarterback in the history of the program, when they have this guy? What have they been missing in practice? Butch is either dumb or ignorant, and honestly, I’m not sure what’s worse. He actually reminds me a lot of you, son! Except I don’t have any questions about that, because I already know you’re an idiot! Goodbye!”

 

And then he hung up the phone. Despite being angry, he did make some good points, ones that I agree with. The Vols are going to be overmatched in every single game against top level competition. They were overmatched against Oregon last year, Oklahoma this year, Ole Miss last weekend, and Alabama every year. Butch should know this going into every single one of these games. Since that’s the case, and the goal of the game is to win, why not take some chances, particularly when the only way they can really win is if they catch some lucky breaks? So when they have a 4th and 2 at about midfield early in the game, why not go for it? What do they have to lose, they’re Tennessee and they’re supposed to get blown out. So what if it doesn’t work out? They’re in the exact same situation they have been in almost every game, which is the loser. Take some shots, go out on a limb, and try to make something happen. What’s wrong with doing that? That, more than anything, has annoyed me to no end about Butch’s first 20 games in Knoxville. I love the recruiting, I like the way he deals with the media, and I’m really happy he’s embraced the Vol traditions. But they’ve got to take some more chances. They’ve got to try and change their own luck.


 

Also, seriously, why hasn’t Dobbs been playing? To say he played great would be an understatement. He was the best player on the field as soon as he entered into the game, as Amari Cooper had already done most of his damage by that point. What have they been missing in practice? Have they been watching Dobbs through blinders, and Peterman through rose-colored glasses? I have no idea, though honestly, all that really matters is that Dobbs got his opportunity, and he shined. It appears that the Vols have found their QB of the future (something I was extremely concerned about), as well as maybe a few more wins this season. I was worried about Tennessee going 4-8 and having the worst record in the history of the program this year, but with Dobbs at the helm, I feel like 6-6 and a bowl game aren’t completely unrealistic. They’ve got 4 games left (at South Carolina, home against Vanderbilt and Missouri, and at Kentucky). I don’t trust any of those teams to consistently show up week to week and be competitive. South Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the country, Missouri couldn’t score on the worst 8 year old flag football team ever assembled, Vanderbilt has returned to its pre-James Franklin self, and Kentucky followed up a 41-3 thrashing by LSU with one of their best games of the year, a 45-31 loss to the #1 team in the country, Mississippi State. Can the Vols win 3 out of 4? We’ll see.

 

Les Miles is the Most Underrated Coach in the Country

 

For all the talk about him being a crazy stooge, and (rightfully) earning the nickname “The Mad Hatter” (I mean, seriously this guy eats grass and claps like this), I think it’s been lost in the shuffle and madness that this guy is an awesome coach, and someone I’d love to have in charge of a program I root for. Consider this: With the Tigers’ win on Saturday night, Miles moved to 24-23 at LSU in games in which he was trailing entering the 4th quarter. For comparison, the Tigers are the only program above .500 in those scenarios since 2005 (Miles’ first year in Baton Rouge). That stat is incredible, and it’s just one of many reasons why I love The Mad Hatter, and think he’d be a slam dunk at Michigan if he was offered and accepted the job. LSU better be thankful for what they have in Miles, because it’s going to be extremely difficult to replace him. This is a guy that’s won a national title, 2 SEC titles, and gone 102-26 since he arrived there. And he’s done all that in what has been a much tougher SEC West. Good luck duplicating that level of success with your next hire.

 

Ole Miss pulled a Clemson on Saturday night

 

Meaning they, despite having all the odds continuously stacked in their favor throughout the entire night, found a way to lose, just like Clemson has and does at least once a year. That already happened this season in the FSU game, when the Seminoles just kept giving the Tigers chances that they weren’t able to capitalize on. And much like Clemson, it was inexplicable how Ole Miss lost that game. They were gift-wrapped a horrible LSU offense that was in the midst of one of its worst performances of the season (4 turnovers, 142 passing yards, and 10 points), and yet, the Rebels were abysmal all night, and only managed to score 7 points. And what was up with them at the end of the game? My first question is, how is it possible that you don’t get your kicker out there to snap the ball and avoid a soul-crushing five yard delay of game penalty? And second, once that’s happened, how in the world do you send the offense back out there, only to have your quarterback roll to his left, bomb it down the field, and throw a game ending interception? Honestly, I’m not sure who I should blame more, Hugh Freeze or Bo Wallace. Obviously Bo made a terrible throw, but what’s the thinking there? That play has a low probability of success, you have a quarterback who’s had a propensity to make poor decisions with the football, and if the play is unsuccessful, you haven’t gotten any closer to kicking that game-tying field goal, which was the point of putting the offense back on the field in the first place. There were nine seconds left. Why not try a safe throw, something that’s toward the sidelines? Regardless, the real sin was not getting the kicker out there fast enough to try a game tying 42 yard field goal. There’s just no way that should ever happen. That simple mistake, followed by Bo’s terrible throw, may have cost the Rebels a shot at the 4 team playoff, with what looks like might be their best team since the ‘60s. And they did it the most painful, heart-breaking, and Clemson way possible.

 

The Big 12 is a Quagmire

 

This conference is a mess at the top, with 6 teams still realistically alive to win the league. Kansas State is the only undefeated team in conference (at 4-0), but Baylor, TCU, and West Virginia all only have one conference loss, and Oklahoma State and Oklahoma only have two. It’ll be tough for K-State, who still has games left at TCU, at West Virginia, and at Baylor. OK State and Oklahoma might have too many teams to climb over, though the Sooners have a relatively easy schedule, with their toughest game being at home against Baylor on November 8th. Honestly, I believe West Virginia is the favorite, only because they have the easiest remaining schedule. They get TCU at home this week, which will more than likely be a 63-60 type of game, as well the aforementioned K-State game on November 20th. Plus, they have that crucial victory and tiebreaker over Baylor, who I think has the best shot to win out besides the Mountaineers. Could Dana Holgorsen and his mullet really win the Big 12? They’ve got the easiest road. Then again, wouldn’t it be the most West Virginia thing possible to win their next three games, only to travel to Iowa State on their last game of the season, lay an egg, play horribly, and lose, allowing another school to win the conference? This wouldn’t be the first time something like this happened to them; remember in 2007, when all WVU needed to do was beat Pittsburgh to clinch a berth in the BCS Title Game, except they played terrible and lost? I do. We’ll see how the rest of the season plays out.

 

My 4 Team Playoff

 

With the Ole Miss loss, my 4 team playoff will see a bit of a shake up this week (I had the Rebels at #2).

 

  1. Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have done nothing yet to drop out of the top spot. Dak Prescott was in a walking boot after the game on Saturday, but he said it was more precautionary than anything. MSU better hope it is, because they still have some tough games left on the schedule, including games at Alabama on November 15th and the Egg Bowl, at Ole Miss, on November 29th.
  2. Florida State. The Seminoles move up a spot despite not playing a game this week. I still don’t think FSU is a great team, but it won’t matter if they go undefeated, which is entirely possible, considering how weak the ACC is. Keep an eye on their game this week though, the Thursday night contest at Louisville. That’s going to be a really tough game, one the ‘Noles could easily lose.
  3. Alabama. Yes, yes, I know, the Tide lost to Ole Miss this year. And while I care, I ultimately don’t think it will matter all that much at the end of the year, and particularly not to the selection committee this week, when they reveal their 4 team playoff for the first time. I like the way the Bama offense has looked the last two weeks, and the defense is starting to look like a typical Saban unit on that side of the ball. That game at LSU in two weeks will be an absolute slugfest, and one that will show us just how legitimate the Tide offense actually is.
  4. Oregon. The Ducks debut in my top 4, though I don’t think they’ll be there at the end of the year. I just think it’s going to be difficult for them to get through that Stanford game this week, just because I think the Cardinal have that match up figured out. But if they do win, their game the next week at Utah should be quite challenging. Regardless, they’ve been the most impressive team in that conference thus far. That offense is executing at it’s typical rate, and Marcus Mariota (2,283 yards, 24 passing touchdowns, 1 pick) would get my Heisman vote if I had one.

 

Denver is a Juggernaut

 

I’m not going to do NFL power rankings this week, but if I did, just know that I’d put the Broncos at number 1. The only thing that affected them on Thursday night against San Diego was their scoreboard operator. They still don’t run the ball well (they’re 20th in yards per game), but it hasn’t really mattered. Manning has been almost as amazing as he was last year (69 completion percentage, 2,134 yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 3 picks), and that defense has an edge and physicality that they lacked last year. Really, there won’t be any excuses for them if they don’t win the Super Bowl this season. They’ve got the best group of receivers in the league (Emmanuel Sanders had 3 touchdowns and 120 yards on Thursday, and he’s probably their 4th best guy), they’ve got great pass rushers (Von Miller and Demarcus Ware), and they only allow 72.4 yards per game on the ground, the best in the NFL. It’s time for them to put it all together in the playoffs.

 

The Winner of the NFC South Clinches an Automatic Berth to the Toilet Bowl

 

How is it possible that the Thursday game between the 3-4-1 Carolina Panthers and the 3-4 New Orleans Saints is for the division lead? Because this division sucks. Carolina hasn’t been impressive since Week 2, and New Orleans finally played like we expected them to last night, as they dominated Green Bay. But make no mistake, this is still a mediocre Saints team. Unfortunately, it’s probably going to come down to one of these two, because the rest of the division is even worse. The 1-6 Buccaneers are technically still alive, though we all know that really isn’t true. And I’m not sure what the heck Atlanta is doing. Blowing a 21 point halftime lead to Detroit in London was such a typical Dirty Bird thing to do. It’s amazing to me that since their NFC Championship Game loss to 49ers two years ago, the Falcons are 6-18. 6-18! I’d let my brother (a huge Falcons fan) write this paragraph, but he’d end up just typing everything in all caps LIKE THIS, start screaming about starting a website called firemikesmith.com, begin to knock back a few too many adult beverages, and then, eventually, follow all that up by becoming so exasperated that he’d start to sob uncontrollably. You don’t want that, and I don’t want that, so let’s just move on.

 

New England Muzzled the Bears

 

And they were dominant. Tom Brady was great all day (30-35, 354 yards, 5 TDs, no picks), and Rob Gronkowski played his best game of the year (9 catches, 149 yards, 3 TDs), and looked like Gronk again for the first time since he tore his ACL last year against Cleveland. The Pats, despite all their injuries and limitations on offense, have once again figured out how to string some wins together during the regular season, as they moved to 6-2. We’ll see them in the playoffs again, where they’ll once again fall short of the ultimate prize, the Lombardi Trophy, because they really don’t have any weapons on the outside, as well as the fact that their defense has more injuries than a bus crash. The real story here is the continuous and curious descent of the Bears, who, despite being extremely talented, find themselves at 3-5 at the half way point of the season. Jay Cutler has been getting a lot of the blame (he’s thrown 8 picks), but he does have 17 TDs and 2,063 yards passing. Couldn’t I argue that defense has been way worse, and should get most of the blame? For all the “improvements” they made on that side of the ball in the offseason, it’s telling that they have the 4th worst scoring defense (they give up on average 27.8 points per game), and they allowed a franchise record 38 points at halftime. How is that Cutler’s fault? What can he do about that? Obviously he’s deserving of some blame for their start, as is everyone in that locker room, but they need, more than anything, a resurgence on the defensive side of the ball, or they’re done. Honestly though, it’s probably too late.

 

Why aren’t we paying attention to the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Bills?

 

I should be asking myself the same question, because last week, when I did my power rankings, I left out all three of these teams. In fact, I didn’t even consider any of them for the top 10, proving once again that I’m an idiot. Oh well. It happens. The Chiefs, besides their Week 1 travesty against the Titans, have been competitive in every game, including a 7 point loss (where they had the ball late driving for the tying score) against Denver, a dominating win over the Patriots, and a win last week over the Bolts in San Diego. Plus, they took care of business this week against the Rams, scoring 34 unanswered points, moving them to 4-3. The Dolphins, also 4-3, have probably been the least impressive of these three teams, but I like the way Ryan Tannehill has thrown the ball the last few weeks. He may, shockingly, end up being a really good NFL quarterback. And lastly, the Bills, who have been the biggest surprise of the NFL season so far. I mean, they’ve started EJ Manuel and Kyle Orton at quarterback every game and have somehow found a way to be 5-3. Their defensive line is awesome, and they absolutely whooped the Jets in the trenches for the entire game yesterday. Wouldn’t it be amazing if two of these teams made the playoffs? I don’t expect it to happen, because it’s in Miami’s character to completely come apart, and I think the Chiefs will eventually fold because the schedule is brutal (they’ve got games left against Seattle, Denver, and San Diego, as well as games on the road at Arizona and Pittsburgh), which leaves us with Buffalo. They’ve got three losable games in the last four weeks (at Denver, home against Green Bay, and at New England), and after their bye week this week, a game at home against the Chiefs followed by a game in Miami. So what? They’re better than the Chiefs and Dolphins, and will prove it. Then they’ll easily dispatch the Jets and Browns, and roll into Denver, with guns blazing, puffing their chest out a little bit, because they’re 9-3, only to be absolutely annihilated by the Bronco buzz saw. Heck, they’ll probably be on the wrong side in all three of those games at the end and finish 10-6, which will allow them to, amazingly, back into the playoffs. Yes, you heard it correctly, the Buffalo Bills will be playing a meaningful game in January this season. I know, it feels weird just reading that out loud. Then again, I am betting on Kyle Orton to continue to play well, as well as an organization that’s spent the last 15 years inventing new ways to lose (Thinking…..). Naw, I’ll stick with it. And when it blows up in my face after they lose their next two games, I can shake my head in disgust, and remember to never believe in a Kyle Orton quarterbacked team again.

 

As always, enjoy Monday Night Football this evening. Also, if you love basketball, keep an eye out for my NBA preview and prediction column, which will be coming out tomorrow, because it will be awesome. And watch the World Series. Game 6 is tomorrow night. It’s been really compelling television (I know, I’m probably the first person to write that sentence since the 1950s, but still, it has been). And above all, have a nice week. You deserve it.