Football has once again returned to our lives for another
weekend. In fact, I’m glad that we are in the month of October. Not only am I
ready for some fall weather, but October is also one of, if not the best month
in sports. Think about it. College football and the NFL are in full swing, the
drama of the baseball playoffs occur throughout this entire month, and the NBA
regular season begins just before Halloween. October is also the only month
where all 4 of the major sports can have games on the same day. Point being,
there’s a lot to watch this month. I know I’ll enjoy it.
Now, on to the games….
College Football
This is truly the first big time weekend in the college
football season. There are 4 really interesting games in the SEC alone. You know
it’s a huge weekend for the conference when Florida-Tennessee, one of the most
intense and competitive rivalries in college football, is the noon SEC Network game.
#14 Stanford over #9 Notre Dame
Not only do I think Stanford is better, and therefore will
win, but I’m also going to be rooting hard for them, because if the Fighting
Irish win, the national media will probably act like they beat ’85 Bears. Hopefully,
they won’t get that opportunity. Why is Notre Dame even ranked this high? Who
have they beaten? Michigan , the
same team that got destroyed by Utah
and Minnesota ? Notre Dame even
struggled with Syracuse a little
bit last Saturday night. Stanford is one of the most underrated teams in the
country, and they’ve got the best scoring defense in college football (6.5
points per game). This will be a low scoring game, because the Cardinal
struggle to put points on the board, but I still expect them to win by double
digits. And hopefully Stanford will start to get some love in the polls after
this one, because there’s no way they aren’t one of the ten best teams in college
football.
#10 Michigan State
over #19 Nebraska
This was the toughest call of the weekend for me. Amir
Abdullah has been a beast all year for the Cornhuskers (3 games over 200 yards
rushing so far this year), and I actually think Nebraska, who is in this
constant cycle of losing 4 games every year, might actually be pretty good this
year. I picked the Spartans to win the Big 10 at the beginning of the year, and
I feel like a lot of people are still down on them because of they got blown
out by Oregon. They were torched that night, but I still think their defense is
pretty good, and when in doubt, I always side with the home team, particularly
in college. Sparty wins close.
Now, onto the biggest day in the history of the state of Mississippi .
From all accounts, people are going nuts down there. College Gameday will be at
The Grove at Ole Miss for the first time ever, which seems to have caused everything
else in that society to stop until Saturday has come and gone. Unfortunately,
it’s going to be a disappointment. All emergency medical personnel in that
state will need to be standing by.
#3 Alabama
over #11 Ole Miss
This game will be a blowout. I know Ole Miss has an
excellent defense, and they’ve paid, I mean somehow “recruited” a bunch of
great athletes to come to their school. No matter. Bo Wallace still plays
quarterback for the Rebels, and he reminds me of Tony Romo, because he has a
propensity to make terrible, mind-numbing decisions with the football,
including throwing back-breaking and heart-wrenching interceptions. I don’t
expect Ole Miss to be able to score many points, or even really be able to move
the ball all that much, which will give Bama a lot of short fields, enabling the
Crimson Tide to neutralize the Ole Miss defense a little bit. Much like the Florida
game two weeks ago, I expect Alabama
to win by AT LEAST 17 points.
#6 Texas
A&M over #12 Mississippi State
This will be an interesting quarterback duel (Kenny Hill vs.
Dak Prescott), and I don’t expect the defenses to have much of a shot of
slowing down the offenses. Both these teams can put up points, but I feel like
the Aggies have better offensive personnel, and will be able to ultimately
outscore MSU. I’ll probably be frustrated watching this game, because I know
going into it that neither of the defenses are going to be able to make the
offenses work for their points. They’ll be lots of missed tackles, receivers
running wide open down the middle of the field, and gaping holes for the
running backs. But Texas A&M is better, and they’ll win on Saturday.
#5 Auburn over #15 LSU
I hate picking against LSU, particularly in a big game, just
because they’re a step up program that almost always seems to win or play
really well in big games (except the LSU-Bama rematch in the 2011 national
title game), but I can’t side with them this week. I just don’t trust a
freshman quarterback (which LSU will have) on the road, in a hostile
environment, against a very good SEC team. In Auburn ’s
first test of the season, at Kansas State
about two weeks ago, the Tigers were outplayed the whole night, and they really
struggled to consistently drive the ball down the field like they did all of
last year. However, they somehow found a way to win. I think they’ll play much
better this week. If Mississippi State ’s
offense can overpower LSU, I think Auburn
will be able to as well.
Now, onto the most important game of the week, Florida
at Tennessee . I was 11 years old,
in 2004, the last time the Vols beat the Gators. There have been a lot of
disappointments since then, and a lot of pain after those games. It sucks losing 9 straight years to a team you hate. In 2005, the Vols, who were highly ranked in the
preseason, went down to the Swamp and lost 16-7, which showed everybody that
maybe there were going to be some problems (particularly offensively) for this
team. They ended up going 5-6 that year, including an embarrassing loss to
Vanderbilt. In 2006, the Vols played the favored Gators really tough throughout
the entire game, yet came up just short, losing 21-20. What a crushing loss. One point? I remember how gutty Erik Ainge was that game, and how I believed that they were going to score late and win. But they didn't. They got blown out in
2007 and 2008. In 2009, Kiffin played not to get beat down, and while the Vols
kept it close and only lost 23-13, it never really felt like they were in the
game. Dooley lost by double digits his first two years, yet had the lead
through 40 minutes during his third try against the Gators, before things
completely came apart, the Gators ran off 24 straight points, and the Vols ended up getting destroyed. I never let Dooley trick me again after that. And now we
arrive at last year, which will forever be known as the Nathan Peterman game.
By all accounts, Peterman (much like on Saturday against Georgia )
played the worst half of football at the quarterback position in the history of
the program. If anybody else had started for the Vols that Saturday, including
a blind man, Tennessee would’ve
won that game. I’m sure of it. Florida
played badly as well in the first half, yet the Vols just weren’t able to
capitalize. Last year should’ve been the year that the streak ended. Instead,
we’ll have to settle for Saturday. Tennessee
will win by double digits tomorrow. Florida isn't a good team, and Tennessee
looks like they're starting to get things turned in the right direction. They’ve had two
disappointing losses this year (Oklahoma
and Georgia ),
but they’ve shown us something that Dooley’s teams never did. They’ve shown us
heart, a will to win, and the desire to not be embarrassed every week. They’ve
shown pride. Plus, they’re really talented. Justin Worley is a solid SEC
quarterback, and they’ve got playmakers on both sides of the ball. The Vols
will take care of business this Saturday, and for the first time in 9 years, Tennessee
fans will be satisfied when the clock hits triple zeroes.
The NFL
This week, rather than run through all the games, I’ve
decided to just focus on a few of the most interesting contests this weekend. I’ll
put the rest of my Week 5 picks at the bottom.
Bengals over Pats
Are the Patriots done? Has their window finally shut? I say
no, just because of the division they’re in. They could go 9-7 and still win
the AFC East, because the Dolphins, Bills, and Jets all have their own issues
(mostly at the quarterback position). I’ve said for years now that the Pats’
biggest problem (and the reason they weren’t winning Super Bowls) is that they
don’t have any weapons on the outside that scare anybody. Every single drive is
full of dinks and dunks down the field. All of Brady’s throws are underneath,
or inside of 15 yards. They don’t have any deep threats, like a Randy Moss type
of guy, someone who is capable of taking the top off the defense. It really
helps an offense when you can have a couple of 30 yard pass completions a game,
or a long 60 yard touchdown pass every once in a while. Their offense is so
limited because they can’t do this. They never have any big plays. It’s hard for
an offense to put together 12 and 15 play drives every single time. It helps so
much when your offense is able to have a few quick drives. They never have
those quick drives, and that’s why it’s so hard for them to score a lot of
points. Brady is 37 years old now, and their offensive personnel are worse than
ever. The Bengals have one of the best defenses in the league (they only give
up 11 points a game), and I wouldn’t be shocked if they held New
England to less than 10 points. That offensive line is in
shambles, they can’t run the ball, and they’ve got no elite skill position
players. They’re depending solely on Brady’s 37 year old body, and Bill
Belichick’s coaching brilliance to get it done for them. It won’t be good
enough this week. Cincinnati will
win by at least two touchdowns on Sunday night.
Bears over Panthers
This game is really important for both of these squads, two
teams that are reeling after losses last week. The loser will drop to 2-3. Carolina
is so limited offensively, there’s great potential for them to show up and
score 10 points. Because of that, I can’t pick them. They, much like the
Patriots, really don’t have any weapons on offense, with the exception of
Kelvin Benjamin, though he’s not ready to be a franchise wideout just yet.
Plus, their offensive line has struggled mightily to give Cam Newton any time
to throw. The Bears sucked on offense in the second half last week, but I’ve
got so much respect for Mark Trestman as an offensive mind that I can’t see
that happening again. They’ll score at least three touchdowns this week, and
hold that limited Carolina offense
in check. Chicago will move to 3-2.
Broncos over Cardinals
This is the best NFL game of the weekend. Arizona ’s
defense is exceptional, as they haven’t given up any points in the 4th
quarter this year. Denver struggles to run the ball (only 75.3 yards per game),
but they’ve got Peyton Manning under center for them, which means they’ll be
able to move the ball no matter what. Well, except in last year’s Super Bowl.
This game basically comes down to this: I don’t trust Drew Stanton as the long
term answer at quarterback. He’s played well in the two games he’s started, but
he’s still Drew Stanton. There’s a reason he backed up Carson Palmer, a middle
of the road starter, at the beginning of this year. At what point does Stanton
have a 3 pick game where he completes less than 50% of his passes, and has
about 150 passing yards? I feel like that could happen at any time. I’m still
of the opinion that this team will be better off long term once they get Palmer
back. They need that stabilizing force at the quarterback position, someone who
will be consistently better than average, because that defense makes them a
Super Bowl contender. But they’ll get their first loss of the season this week.
Denver is just better overall, and
they’re at home.
Other NFL Picks
Lions over Bills
Colts over Ravens
Browns over Titans
Cowboys over Texans
Steelers over Jaguars
Saints over Bucs
Falcons over Giants
Eagles over Rams
49ers over Chiefs
Chargers over Jets
Seahawks over Redskins
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