If you’ve read me at all this football season, I
think I’ve made it pretty clear that I’m not exactly a fan of Butch Jones. He
hasn’t done anything to indicate to me that he’s a top 20 college head coach,
and I think that’s been reflected by Tennessee’s play on the field during his
tenure, particularly during the last two years.
My position since mid-season has been that it’s time
for the Vols to move on from Butch and hire a more competent coach who won’t
blow three 13 point leads in one season, or preside over a team whose only good
first half performance all year came against Tennessee Tech. Despite all the baggage, Louisville’s Bobby Petrino
has been my pipe dream pick to take the reins on Rocky Top. He's a smart guy who’d score more on the field than he did with mistresses, while also winning a ton of games in Knoxville. He’d
also instantly become the best coach in the SEC East, and command a decently
talented roster at a school that will pretty much do anything to win. Petrino's been wildly
successful at Louisville and Arkansas, two schools that probably aren’t even
Top 25 jobs; imagine what he’d do at Tennessee, a Top 15 job with a much larger
recruiting budget, better facilities, better tradition, more money, etc.
Unfortunately, Butch will get a fifth year because
Tennessee’s athletic director Dave Hart is retiring this summer, and he has no
reason to get rid of a high profile staff member and start a coaching search while he's on his way out the door. And if Butch is as incompetent as I think
he is, the new athletic director would want the opportunity to fire him and
hire his own guy. He wouldn’t want to show up in Knoxville, stuck with a new
coach hired by the previous AD who he’d now have to be committed to for the
next three years. So unless a Butch-Horse sex tape gets leaked to the media, I
think we’re probably stuck with him in 2017.
I’ve had a lot of discussions with my friends about
Butch and Tennessee, and read entirely too many ill-informed message board diatribes
posted by guys with names like 69VOLS69, in the hopes of figuring out how the
fan base felt about the last four years and where we should go from here. The
most common excuse I’ve heard (and it’s the same one they used for Dooley) is, “The
program was in shambles when he took over! He just needs more time!”.
Interesting…. If that was the case, then why did it
take Jim Harbaugh like 6 games to turn around Michigan? Why has Jim McElwain
been able to win the SEC East in both of his first two seasons? Why did both
Urban Meyer and Bob Stoops win national titles in their second years at Ohio
State and Oklahoma?
BUT MATT! DEREK F*****G DOOLEY WAS IN
KNOXVILLE!!!!!! HE’S THE HEAD COACHING EQUIVALENT OF A POST-THANKSGIVING DUMP!!!
Yeah, because Tennessee was the first program to hire
a horribly inept and in over his head coach. He’s the first guy to ever leave a
program in shambles. No one has ever done that before…. Wait a second, most of
time when a football coach is fired, particularly after three seasons, isn’t it
because the program sucked? Because it was “in shambles”? Yes, of course!
Here’s my uncontroversial thesis: if you’re a good
college head coach at a big time job (which Tennessee is), you win a lot of
games relatively quickly, regardless of what came before you. This has been
spelled out time and time again at schools all over the country. But rather
than just say it, why not show you?
Butch
Jones- Tennessee
Previous Coach: Derek Dooley
Dooley’s Record: 15-21 overall, 4-19 in conference
2010: 6-7
2011: 5-7
2012: 4-7
Dooley was a crap show, there’s no doubt, but he did
have back-to-back Top 10 recruiting classes his first two years. The notion
that the cupboard was balder than a baby’s bottom when he left is absurd,
though he did make a monumental, unforgivable screw up by not signing a single
offensive lineman in his last class.
Butch’s Record: 29-20, 14-18 in conference
2013: 5-7
2014: 7-6
2015: 9-4 (blew three 13 point leads)
2016: 8-3 (one good first half performance all year)
1-3 against Florida (though they could’ve easily
been 4-0), 0-4 against Alabama, never beaten a top 10 team, vastly
underperformed for the level of talent they had on the roster the last two
years. Also, it’s hard to blame the previous administration when this entire
roster is guys you’ve coached and recruited for the last four years. From a personnel
standpoint, the stink of Dooley isn’t present at all with the current Vols. Oh yeah, and there's this; since 1992, every coach that has won the SEC Championship had nine victories in either their first or second year at the school they eventually captured the conference title at. It took Butch three seasons before he won nine games. Not a good sign.
Jim
Harbaugh- Michigan
Previous Coach: Brady Hoke
Hoke’s Record: 31-20, 18-14 in conference
2011: 11-2
2012: 8-5
2013: 7-6
2014: 5-7
After an impressive first year in which he went
11-2, Hoke went 20-18 during his last three seasons while looking like a sweaty
middle school gym teacher going through his third divorce.
Harbaugh’s Record: 20-4, 13-3 in conference
2015: 10-3
2016: 10-1
If Michigan beats Ohio State tomorrow they win the Big
Ten East and will play in their conference championship game, with a chance to
make the college football playoff in Harbaugh’s second year.
Bob
Stoops- Oklahoma
Previous Coach: John Blake
Blake’s Record: 12-22, 7-17 in conference
1996: 3-8
1997: 4-8
1998: 5-6
Blake took over a program that was struggling prior
to him arriving and couldn’t do much better.
Stoops’s Record (first four seasons): 43-9, 25-7 in
conference
1999: 7-5
2000: 13-0 (won national title)
2001: 11-2
2002: 12-2 (won conference title)
Stoops showed up to a program that hadn’t had a
winning season since 1993 and won a national title in his second year. Couldn’t
I argue Stoops inherited a much worse situation than Butch? OU went five years
without finishing above .500 before Stoops arrived; Tennessee had gone just
three.
Nick
Saban- Alabama
Previous Coach: Mike Shula
Shula’s Record: 26-23, 13-19 in conference
2003: 4-9
2004: 6-6
2005: 10-2
2006: 6-6
Besides an impressive third year, Shula’s tenure is
viewed as a universal failure by most Tide fans. Here’s something interesting
though; look at Shula’s records again, compared to Butch’s, who has ironically
coached as many games in Knoxville as Mike did in Tuscaloosa. Butch is three
games better overall and one game better in conference, but isn’t Shula just basically
Jones with a slightly higher peak and lower valley?
Saban’s Record (first four seasons): 43-11, 25-7 in
conference
2007: 7-6
2008: 12-2 (won SEC West)
2009: 14-0 (won national title)
2010: 10-3
Since this time, Saban has won three more national
titles and is the favorite to do it again this year.
Urban
Meyer- Florida
Previous Coach: Ron Zook
Zook’s Record: 23-14, 16-8 in conference
2002: 8-5
2003: 8-5
2004: 7-4
The Zooker wasn’t a disaster, but compared to
Spurrier, the talent and level of play had clearly slipped.
Meyer’s Record (first four seasons): 48-9, 24-8 in
conference
2005: 9-3
2006: 13-1 (won national title)
2007: 9-4
2008: 13-1 (won national title)
Meyer reversed Zook’s downward trend basically
overnight and won two national titles in his first four seasons. Did Zook leave
UF better off than Dooley left UT? Sure, that’s inarguable. But Meyer’s first
year in The Swamp was about as good as any campaign Butch has been able to put
forth in four seasons. Again, every single player on the roster is recruited
and coached up by Jones and his staff! You can’t keep blaming Dooley when all
the players are Butch guys now.
Jim
McElwain- Florida
Previous Coach: Will Muschamp
Muschamp’s Record: 28-21, 17-15 in conference
2011: 7-6
2012: 11-2
2013: 4-8
2014: 6-5
Muschamp, like Shula, is viewed as an abject failure
by most Florida fans. The offenses his last two years might’ve been the worst
in conference the last 25 years outside of some of the most porous ones at
Vanderbilt (the Gators finished 13th in the conference in yards in
2014, and dead last in 2013). Interesting to look at the comparison of records
between Muschamp and Jones. Butch is one game better overall, but is three
games worse in conference play. Couldn’t I argue, just like with Shula, that
Muschamp is basically Butch with a slightly higher peak and a lower valley?
Not-so-fun fact: Muschamp is 3-0 against Butch.
McElwain’s Record: 18-6, 13-3 in conference
2015: 10-4 (won SEC East)
2016: 8-2 (won SEC East)
So McElwain takes over a program that couldn’t score
and went a combined 10-13 in the two years before he got there, and proceeds to
guide them to back-to-back division titles. What am I missing here? What’s
Butch’s problem?
Pete
Carroll- USC
Previous Coach: Paul Hackett
Hackett’s Record: 19-18, 10-14 in conference
1998: 8-5
1999: 6-6
2000: 5-7
Hackett took over a program that had started
slumping under the previous coach, John Robinson, and couldn’t do enough to
make the Trojans anything but mediocre.
Carroll’s Record (first four seasons): 42-9, 27-5 in
conference
2001: 6-6
2002: 11-2 (won conference title)
2003: 12-1 (won national title)
2004: 13-0 (won national title)
Carroll, like everyone else on this list, took over
and won big almost instantly, setting up a dynasty in Los Angeles during the
first part of 2000s.
James
Franklin- Penn State
Previous Coach: Bill O’Brien
O’Brien’s Record: 15-9, 10-6 in conference
2012: 8-4
2013: 7-5
Franklin’s Record: 23-14, 13-11
2014: 7-6
2015: 7-6
2016: 9-2
If Ohio State beats Michigan tomorrow, and Penn
State knocks off Michigan State, then the Nittany Lions win the Big Ten East
and will travel to Indianapolis for the conference championship game. If they
win that game, they’d not only have a conference title, but also an excellent
shot to make the college football playoff. And if that were to happen, what a hell of job
by Franklin, considering everything that school has gone through this decade.
Sandusky’s crimes and Paterno’s knowledge of it rocked the program, and the NCAA,
for no real reason, decided they needed to destroy the future of the football
team by slashing the number of available scholarships AND banning them from
postseason play for four years. The sanctions were eventually lifted, but not
before the depth of the program was already shot. O’Brien came in and did a
good job considering everything, but Franklin still faced an uphill battle when
he took the job three years ago. Now, he potentially has them two wins away
from a conference title and possible playoff berth. Uh Butch…. What’s the deal
buddy?
Oh, I’m sorry, I forgot, Butch and Tennessee already
won the most important title, the Championship of Life! How could I be so
stupid! Sorry Coach Jones, everything I just wrote is now null and void! You
can now go back to underachieving every year!