The 2018 NFL Meat Sandwich

I know you all clicked on this hoping to read about the upcoming NFL season, but before I go any further with this, I just want to put this out there; I’m going to spend each Sunday this fall and winter sitting on a couch somewhere watching the game of football. I absolutely hate the protests because I think they accomplish nothing and are based on a lie. I wish everyone would stand for the anthem because this is the best country in the history of the world no matter your race, gender, religion, or sexual orientation. 

However, I also love football more than I hate people kneeling. I just can’t get enough of the sport. It, along with college football, is the best athletics show ever invented.

The protests have been bad for the NFL’s business. This is inarguable. But they haven’t quelled my fandom. Not yet.

When you guys click on something that I’ve written, you have a certain expectation about what you're about to be reading, which is my sports opinions. If you clicked on something I wrote and it was supposed to be a football column, but instead, it was all about Dungeons and Dragons, you’d be like, “what the hell is this? I’m not reading this crap”. And you'd exit out of it. That’s what’s happened to the NFL since Kaepernick kneeled. We tuned in expecting a football game and got politics thrown in our face instead. “What the hell is this? I’m not watching this crap.”

So I’m going to stay on brand. I love sports, games, and the athletes. You guys read me for my sports takes, and that’s what I like writing about the most. This is going to be a fantastic NFL season and I’ve got a million different opinions about it.

So here’s how I’m going to break it down: Power rankings, from 32-1, with the teams grouped together in tiers. The name of the tier will capture the overall feel of each team in the group.

Without further ado…

We Have No Shot

32. Buffalo Bills

31. Miami Dolphins

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Our definitive bottom three all have a chance to be really awful at the quarterback position. Buffalo is starting Nathan Peterman there. Nathan Bleeping Peterman, who is most famous for his five interceptions in the first half of his first career start in last year’s game against the Chargers. He also tortured me in the first half of the 2013 Tennessee-Florida game, when he quarterbacked the Vols to the worst half at that position in the history of the program. When he inevitably gets benched for poor play at some point during the season, he’ll be replaced by first round pick Josh Allen, who has a big arm and… that’s really it. In 11 games for Wyoming last year, Allen threw for only 1812 passing yards and completed less than 57% of his throws. Why does anyone think this is going to work?

Miami got rid of their best players on each side of the ball (Jarvis Landry, Ndamukong Suh) and at quarterback, they’ll replace Jay Cutler with the return of… Ryan Tannehill. Damn, the rest of the league is TERRIFIED.

Tampa will be without Jameis Winston for the first three games after he got suspended for an incident with an Uber driver. Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the job while he’s gone. Again, not scary. I think it might be time for the Bucs to move on from the Jameis experiment. He hasn’t gotten better since his rookie season and he’s a handful on and off the field. What’s the upside? I’d flip him for whatever I could get because he’s proven he’s not mature enough to make it in the league and come back to bite you.

Damn, We Just Got Grudened!

29. Oakland Raiders

What’s been the best thing about the Jon Gruden era so far? I would’ve said him showing the team game film from the 1970s, but that got replaced on Saturday when they decided to trade one of the best pass rushers in the league, Kahlil Mack, to the Bears, because he was holding out for a new contract and they didn't want to pay him. Gruden admitted at the start of training camp that he hadn’t even been in communication with Mack at all since he got the job, and after the trade, talked about how the media was just trying to divide the team. What? Hey Jon, when you have one of the five best defensive players in football at the absolute peak of his powers, you don’t trade him under any circumstances. I was skeptical about Gruden working out as a head coach after a decade long absence, but I thought his shortcomings would've come in scheme or work ethic, not personality. He’s been on the job less than a year and he might’ve lost the team already. Good thing Mark Davis gave him a ten year contract. Whoops!

New Veteran QBs, Same Result

28. Arizona Cardinals

27. Cleveland Browns

26. Washington Redskins

25. Denver Broncos

All four of these teams replaced their quarterbacks from last year with veterans who have lasted into their late 20s or early 30s despite their physical limitations. Arizona landed Sam Bradford, who has been so banged up that he's played in all 16 games only twice in his nine season career. Tyrod Taylor, who is shorter than the average QB at 6’1, led the Bills to their first playoff appearance since 1999. Buffalo repaid him by shipping him to Cleveland. Washington traded for Alex Smith, who led the Chiefs to four playoff appearances in five years despite his limited arm talent. Denver signed Case Keenum this off-season after the Vikings agreed to a deal with former Redskin QB Kirk Cousins. Keenum, who is also just 6’1, had a career year last season and completed the greatest pass in Viking history, a 61 yard heave to Stefon Diggs on the final play of the game that sent Minnesota to the NFC Championship Game… where they got their doors blown off 38-7 by the Eagles. But still! Great moment!

Here’s the truth; all of these guys are serviceable and capable of taking a team with a good roster and an above average head coach to the playoffs. The problem is that none of these squads match that description. I like Arizona’s skill guys (Larry Fitzgerald, David Johnson), but their offensive line is one of the worst in the league. Washington had a million injuries last season, and they’re so banged up this year that they decided to roll the dice on Adrian Peterson (gulp) who is so washed up that he’s already had three teams (Minnesota, New Orleans, Arizona) give up on him. Cleveland has some talent on defense, but that coaching staff is in complete disarray and Hue Jackson has won 1 game in two years. Plus, if things start to go sour, the Browns might turn the team over to first overall pick Baker Mayfield, who I don’t think is ready to play right now. If I had to bet on a team out of this group to make a run at the playoffs, it’d be Denver, solely because the Von Miller-Bradley Chubb pass rush combination has a chance to be special, a la Miller and Demarcus Ware on the 2015 Broncos. Keenum is the problem for me. He’s the only QB of this group who hasn’t been a capable starter for more than one season. He had a career year in 2017 with a great head coach, Mike Zimmer, one of the best offensive minds in the league, his OC Pat Shurmur, and a loaded roster that’s more talented and deeper than the one he has in Denver. His head coach in Denver is Vance Joseph, who was so bad last season in his first year that there was a legitimate argument for him being one and done. Uh oh. It won’t matter how much havoc Miller and Chubb wreak if Keenum regresses to his mean and becomes a back up-level QB again.

Savior Sam?

24. New York Jets

In March, the Jets traded three second rounders to Colts to move up three spots in the draft to number 3 (lots of threes). They got killed for that transaction the time, with everyone laughing and saying "Well this is why the Jets are the Jets". However, thanks to Cleveland’s love for Baker Mayfield and the Giants’ inability to move on from the Eli Manning era, the Jets lucked into the best quarterback in the draft, Sam Darnold. He has a chance to be the best person they’ve had under center since Joe Namath. Darnold, despite his penchant for occasionally throwing the ball up for grabs, was the only quarterback I would’ve taken in this year’s draft if I was running a team. He's a mature kid with a good enough arm; if the only knock on him is that he takes too many chances, I can live with that for now.

If I had to pick a team out of the AFC East to dethrone the Patriots this season, I’d take the Jets, solely because Darnold might already be the second best QB in the division and I like some of their defensive personnel. The schedule isn’t impossible either; their first three games are at Detroit, home for the Dolphins, and at the Browns. They could very easily be 3-0 before the schedule toughens up heading into the month of October. 

The argument against them is that their offensive line is pretty awful, and they don’t have a skill person I’d start on my fantasy team with the exception of Robby Anderson, who is a loose cannon with off the field issues. Frankly, I’m not sure he’ll be able to stay eligible for all 16 games, and they really have no one scary without him. Plus, let's be honest; The Pats would really have to fall off for the Jets to challenge them because I don’t see any way this team is better than 8-8. 6-10 feels more realistic.

We’re Staler Than Ten Week Old Bread

23. Detroit Lions

22. Baltimore Ravens

There’s just no momentum for either of these teams, both of who are bringing back the same quarterbacks, Matt Stafford and Joe Flacco, who have peaked as players and will probably never win another playoff game. Stafford is better than Flacco, but I ranked the Ravens higher because they have a much better roster. Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson has been the least impressive rookie QB of the five drafted in the first round, and as poor as Flacco has been the last few years, I’d stick with him 100 times out of 100 if all I’m going to get from Lamar is what I’ve seen in the preseason.

Detroit hired former Patriots’ defensive coordinator Matt Patricia to be their head coach this off-season. It’s a Bill Belichick assistant, he’ll be a roaring success, right? Wrong. Remind me, what's the track record of Belichick assistants when they became a head coaches? Not good! I'll show you! 

• Josh McDaniels got off to a 6-0 start in Denver in 2009 before everything torpedoed, leading to him getting fired midway through the 2010 season. 
• How about Eric Mangini, the “Mangenius” who beat Belichick one time in a regular season game with the Jets? His 33-48 record tells the real story.
• Romeo Crennell is an immortal 28-55 with the Browns and Chiefs
•  Charlie Weis went a combined 41-49 in college with Notre Dame and Kansas. 
• Jim Schwartz made the playoffs once, with the Lions in 2011, but he finished up his tenure there at just 29-52.
• Bill O’Brien has probably been the most successful out of everyone, and he’s just 32-35 with Texans, with one playoff win in three tries. 

I was never really all that impressed with the Patriots defense when Patricia was running it, and combined with the track record of Belichick’s assistants, I can’t see how this works out for Detroit unless Matt Stafford gets the Monstars to steal Aaron Rodgers's powers.

Zeke Elliott Is Going To Have Like 400 Touches This Season

21. Dallas Cowboys

I might have the Cowboys ranked too high here because there’s a good chance they could be really awful. The skill position guys outside of Ezekiel Elliot might be the worst in the league (Allen Hurns and Cole Beasley are the go to guys? Sheesh), and they’ve already had multiple injuries on their offensive line, which is the definitive strength of the team. I’m a Dak Prescott defender, but he was given more responsibility over the offense last season and played significantly worse. Dak was effective in 2016 when he could always count on being able to turn around and hand the ball to Elliott. Due to Zeke’s suspension, he didn't always have that luxury, and in turn, his interceptions rose from 4 to 13 while his yards dipped from 3,667 to 3,324 and his completion percentage fell from 67.8% to 62.9%. Sure, he’s got Zeke back for all 16 games this season, assuming there’s no injuries, but the team around Dak was better two years ago than it is now. Plus, the schedule is brutal; Dallas has road games this season at Carolina, Seattle, Houston, Philly, Atlanta, Indianapolis, the Giants, and Washington. Plus, they host New Orleans, Philly, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Detroit, the Giants, and Redskins. The only game where they definitely have the better roster is all the way in Week 16 when they host the Buccaneers. Listen, I’m not saying they’re going 1-15, but why isn’t 5-11 or 6-10 a realistic outcome? I think Zeke touches the ball a ton this year and runs into eight and nine man fronts every week.

We’re Betting It All On Our QB From The 2012 Draft

20. Seattle Seahawks

19. Indianapolis Colts

I placed the Colts a slot higher because the NFC is much tougher than the AFC. Both Indy and Seattle have below average rosters built around once in a generation QBs. Russell Wilson has been able to avoid major injury despite all the running around and play extending that he does, while Andrew Luck missed all of 2017 due to the pounding he’s taken behind what has been the league’s worst offensive line since he entered the league. I’m betting on Luck getting up to speed (I drafted him in both my fantasy leagues), but he’s still saddled by an abominable roster. The same goes for Wilson, who would be the runaway MVP if he could lead an overmatched Seattle team to the playoffs in a NFC that is so loaded that a team will probably have to go 11-5 to snag the last Wild Card spot. The Seahawk offensive line is atrocious, and I doubt the Chris Carson/Rashaad Penny running back combo will be able to find any breathing room behind it. The same goes for Wilson, who got annihilated a few times back there last season. I don’t expect either of these teams to make the playoffs, but if I had to pick one of them to do so, I’d go with the Colts because they play in the inferior AFC and Luck, at his peak, is better than Wilson.

We Want To Be Contenders But I’m Not Sure We Have The Right QB

18. New York Giants

17. Chicago Bears

The Giants had an opportunity to move off Eli Manning by drafting a quarterback with the second overall pick in this year’s draft. Instead, they took RB Saquon Barkley, signed Odell Beckham Jr. to a massive five year extension, and brought back Eli for another go. HELL YEAH!!! I DON’T CARE IF ELI MOVES WORSE THAN AN OLD GRANDPA WITH SHINGLES ON THE BOTTOM OF HIS FEET, HE’S NEVER GOING AWAY!!!!! BRING IT BACK, LET’S KEEP THE ELI EXPRESS ROLLING BABY!!!! Listen, Eli’s had a great career, but it’s over. In 2017 he had his lowest completion percentage and number of TD passes since 2013, and his 3,468 passing yards last season were the fewest he’s had since 2008. Will new head coach and offensive guru Pat Shurmur help? Sure, but even if the Giants maximize Eli this season and unleash holy hell with Barkley and Beckham, I still have no faith in Eli going anywhere and winning a playoff game, something he hasn’t done since 2011.

The same goes for Chicago’s Mitch Trubisky, who looked totally incapable of ever playing QB at a high level during his 12 game sample size last season. He completed just under 60% of his passes, threw as many interceptions as touchdowns, and was never trusted to throw the ball downfield, as his 6.6 yards per attempt average would suggest. Sure, new head coach Matt Nagy, and offensive guy, should be a much bigger help for his development than what he got last year from John Fox, but if he’s just not good there’s only so much any coach can do.

The argument for Chicago being really good is this: they fleeced the Raiders for Kahlil Mack, adding him to what has a chance to be a really great defense. They drafted linebacker Roquan Smith from Georgia, and will bring back cornerback Kyle Fuller, defensive lineman Akiem Hicks, linebacker Danny Trevathan, and safety Eddie Jackson to a defense that ranked 10^th in yards allowed and 9^th in points last season. Plus, the schedule is really easy; Chicago gets Arizona, Tampa, Miami, the Jets, Bills, and Detroit twice. That could be seven wins right there. I’d be able to talk myself into them as a playoff team is I was a believer in Trubisky.

(Quick Tangent: I still have no idea why the Giants drafted Saquon Barkley instead of a quarterback like Sam Darnold who was sitting right there! You could’ve had your QB for the next decade plus! Sure, I think Barkley will be really good, a little like Alvin Kamara, but you can easily find competent or great backs all throughout the draft. Case and point, Kamara last season, who was a third rounder. A franchise QB is so much more difficult to find, but when one falls into your lap, you don’t try and outthink the room, you just take him. This is going to be particularly bad for the Giants when Darnold starts tearing it up in the same city and they’re trotting out a 47 year old Eli Manning ten years from now. HELL YEAH, THE ELI EXPRESS NEVER COMES INTO THE STATION!!!)

Handsome Jimmy

16. San Francisco 49ers

It’s been an wild last couple of months for Jimmy Garoppolo since he got traded to the Niners. He was at the center of a Brady-Belichick-Robert Kraft drama in New England, he led San Fran to five straight wins to end last season, he got paid a zillion dollars by the 49er front office, and he made some… interesting dating choices. The Niners are betting it all on Jimmy G, and with the offensive wizard Kyle Shanahan as his head coach, I think it will end up working… eventually. San Fran still feels a year and another class of draft picks away from competing for a playoff spot. They lost thier starting running back Jerrick McKinnon to a torn ACL, and they have a brutal first month with games against the Vikings, Chiefs, and Chargers. There's also the consecutive weeks in October against the Packers and Rams. That’s potentially five losses by October 21, which would basically eliminate them from playoff contention because I think 11-5 will be the minimum record for a wild card in the NFC with how strong the conference is.

Talented Rosters, QB Questions

15. Tennessee Titans

14. Jacksonville Jaguars

13. Cincinnati Bengals

The Titans made the playoffs last year AND WON A PLAYOFF GAME despite the fact that Marcus Mariota finished 2017 with only 13 TD passes and 15 interceptions. I like the Tennessee roster, but I don’t trust first year coach Mike Vrabel (another Belichick assistant). Plus, are we sure Mariota is good? In three seasons, he’s never had a 3,500 yard passing season, and that 13 TD-15 INT line sounds like a career year from Jamarcus Russell. Derrick Henry’s only skill as a back is running downhill as hard as he can (which is valuable), but other than that he’s not bringing much to the table. The Titan corners were awful last season, and they attempted to solve that problem by signing former Patriot Malcolm Butler to a $61 million deal. I’ve always thought Butler was overrated; take out his spectacular, Super Bowl winning interception at the goal line against the Seahawks, and he’s basically nothing more than an average corner. But that image has blurred his reputation in our minds and made us think he’s better than he actually is. I wouldn’t be counting on him to be the savior for the worst part of this team.

Jacksonville snuck into the AFC Championship Game last season, and had a ten point lead on Brady and the Pats in Foxborough in the 4^th quarter, before there team’s collective sphincter got tight and the offensive play calling got ultra conservative. I think this happened, in part, because they didn’t really trust what they had at quarterback with Blake Bortles. Bortles is probably, if we’re being generous, the 20^th best QB in the league?  The Jacksonville schedule also gets significantly tougher this season; New England, Pittsburgh, Philly, Kansas City, Houston twice with Deshaun Watson, and Indianapolis twice with Andrew Luck. The Jags were also weirdly lucky with injuries last season; Linebacker Telvin Smith missed a few games with a concussion and that was really it. In a sport where grown men collide with each other at high speeds for sixteen three hour periods, I can’t see them surviving another season unscathed. This is still a talented team, but the combination of Bortles and tougher schedule with the likelihood of injuries makes me think they’ll miss the playoffs.

I think the Bengals will be the surprise team in the NFL this season and make the playoffs… where they’ll get bounced in the Wild Card Round. But still. Sure, I can’t believe Marvin Lewis still has a head coaching job after 15 years and no playoff wins, but the roster is going to be so good that I don’t think it’ll matter how average Lewis is. The front seven has a chance to maul some teams, particularly when they get Vontaze Burfict back from another suspension, and their skill position guys are as good as they’ve been since 2015. A.J. Green is still a top 10 receiver, second year wideout John Ross is fully healthy and made the move of the preseason, and Joe Mixon is super talented and now has complete control of the backfield as the primary ball carrier. 

The first half of the schedule is tough, but their last seven games are totally manageable: at Baltimore, home for Cleveland, home for Denver, at the Chargers, home for the Raiders, at the Browns, and at Pittsburgh in Week 17, who may not have anything play for. Do I have concerns about Andy Dalton? Of course. Then again, I trust him way more than I do the other two QBs in this tier, considering he’s more accomplished than both of them and did lead Cincy to playoff appearances in each of his first four seasons. He’s shown that as long as the roster is good, he's capable of quarterbacking a team to the playoffs. To be fair though, he’s also the reason I’d never pick them to go further than that.

After Everything, How Can You Ever Trust These Guys In A Big Spot?

12. Carolina Panthers

11. Los Angeles Chargers

10. Pittsburgh Steelers

Carolina will be without linebacker Thomas Davis for the first four games of the season due to a PED suspension, and they put offensive lineman Matt Kalil on IR, meaning they'll be without him for at least the first 8 weeks of the season. The Panthers feel like the 7^th best team in the NFC, and I’m leaving them out of the playoffs because I just don’t trust Cam Newton week to week. He’s got 141 turnovers in 109 career games, and his accuracy will just evaporate at random. He’s also never had back to back winning seasons in his career. All of this makes me want to stay away from them.

The Chargers are the ultimate “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory” team. They’ve been ridiculously talented every year since their last playoff appearance in 2013, and yet, have found a way to eliminate themselves each season with back-breaking turnovers, missed field goals, and questionable play calls. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are a top five pass rush combo, Melvin Gordon is the most underrated back in the league, and Phil Rivers is good for 4,000+ passing yards and 25 TDs every year. There’s no reason this team shouldn’t make the playoffs and compete for the AFC West title this season. Which means they’ll find a way to screw up the first four weeks of the season and put themselves in a giant hole before the month of October.

Which brings us to the Steelers. I hate the vibe with this team, from Ben Roethlisberger talking about retirement, to Mike Tomlin’s growing-staler-by-the-week message and horrid in game decision-making, to the Le’Veon Bell’s holdout that is now going to last into the season. The Bell holdout would concern me the least if I were a Steeler fan; James Connor is a more than serviceable backup, and Bell probably would show up out of shape again, just like he did last year. What I’d be worried about is Roethlisberger; he's in his late 30s, he seems like he might have one foot out the door, and he's taken a zillion hits. If he slips at all this season, they're screwed because they have nothing proven behind him. Josh Dobbs? Please. I watched him at Tennessee for three years and he regressed every season, particularly as a passer. Rookie Mason Rudolph? He couldn’t even beat out Dobbs for the back up job.

The fact that this team, as talented as they’ve been, hasn’t even made the Super Bowl the last four years is a travesty. They’re a paltry 3-10 against the Patriots since they lost to them in the ’01 AFC Championship Game. Are we sure Tom Brady didn’t peg the Steelers early in his career as his biggest challenger, and then make a blood sacrifice to Alex Guerrero with the promise that he’d be able to beat them every time? Or is Mike Tomlin just a mediocre coach who relies overwhelmingly on emotion week to week? I don’t think this was always the case, but Tomlin has become awful in game. Some of those decisions in the divisional playoff game against Jacksonville last year were mind-boggling. The Steelers are so talented, and on paper, should win the division, but they also feel like a “Year From Hell” team in the making.

Our Fragile QBs Better Stay Healthy Or We’re Screwed

9. Houston Texans

8. Green Bay Packers

Both Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson are extremely talented athletic quarterbacks who have powerful arms and the ability to put the ball wherever they want. They also hold onto the football too long, never give up on a play, and have similar, smaller builds. With that in mind, it’s no wonder Rodgers has broken both his collarbones and Watson has torn both of his ACLs.

I think Green Bay’s team is pretty talented, particularly with the addition of defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson and tight end Jimmy Graham, but everything, as usual, rests on Rodgers shoulders. If he’s great and stays healthy, the Pack have an outside shot at making the Super Bowl. But if he gets slammed wrong again, then its DeShone Kizer (uh oh) and Green Bay is a .500 team AT BEST that won’t sniff the playoffs.

The Texans were one of the most fun teams in the league last year when Watson was rolling before he blew his knee out in practice. They added Tyrann Mathieu on defense, and both JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus will be back from injury. I still don’t trust head coach Bill O’Brien (Belichick assistant), but not even he should keep this team from winning the division, as talented as they are, assuming they can stay healthy. Week 1 at New England should be an awesome game.

(Quick tangent: Rodgers turns 35 in December and just signed the largest contract in league history, a deal that will virtually keep him in Green Bay for the rest of his career. If there was ever a year for the Pack to win Aaron’s second title, this would have to be it, right? He’s going to be swallowing up an even larger portion of the cap after this season, which is going to make it even more difficult to bring quality free agents into Green Bay, a place that already has trouble drawing them now. Why not push all in like the Bears did and go after Kahlil Mack? You guys couldn’t have dealt two first rounders for one of the five best defensive players in the league? Why not? A healthy Rodgers gets you in the playoffs every year; add a disruptive force like Mack to that defense and we could be talking about the Super Bowl favorite. I just don’t understand professional sports sometimes… when a top 10 guy in your sport is on the market, and you have a need at that position, and you’re a contender, WHY DON’T YOU TRY TO TRADE FOR HIM? Rodgers isn’t getting any younger; you lucked into going from Brett Favre right to him, and you’ve wasted a few years of his career already by going cheap. God knows how long it’ll take you to find a franchise QB once he retires. Miami hasn’t had one since Dan Marino! Buffalo since Jim Kelly! Cleveland since Otto Graham! When you have a star like Rodgers, just go for it!)

Your AFC Championship Game….

7. New England Patriots

6. Kansas City Chiefs

I’m a believer in the Patrick Mahomes era. But I’m even a bigger believer in the Kansas City roster, which is one of the best in the league and will be made better by the Eric Berry’s return from an Achilles injury. They got rid of cornerback Marcus Peters in the off-season, but that feels like an addition by subtraction; Peters was a legit crazy person and it had to be grinding to be around him week after week. Andy Reid gets the most out of his quarterbacks (good for Mahomes), and they’ve got weapons all over the field (Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt). Mahomes has a much bigger arm than Alex Smith and I could see like five or six long touchdown passes to a streaking Tyreek Hill this season. Their first seven games could be challenging (at LA Chargers, at Pittsburgh, home for the Niners, at Denver, home for Jacksonville, at New England, home for Cincinnati), but the second half includes a home game against Denver, two Raider games, Cleveland, and Arizona. If Mahomes is really good (and I think he will be), they’ll have the best head coach-roster-QB combination in the AFC.

I have the Pats ranked this high even though I don’t think they’re good enough to make the Super Bowl because I’ll believe in a New England regression when the season ends and they’re 8-8 and miss the playoffs. Sure, their receivers couldn’t start for most FCS teams, and Brady is 41, and he and Belichick and Robert Kraft are feuding, and Rob Gronkowski probably won’t last the whole season, and the offensive line sucks. Yadda yadda yadda. We’ve heard it all before. New England wins the AFC East again and gets a first round bye.

I have the Chiefs in the Super Bowl because they have the personnel and can play the aggressive style that Jacksonville should’ve employed last season to beat the Pats. Whether or not Andy Reid will remains to be seen. My only hesitation with this pick is the fact that Reid has screwed up about a million different playoff games in both Philadelphia and Kansas City by abandoning his regular season style in favor of a conservative, slowed down approach. Will he trust Mahomes more than Alex Smith? I have no idea. Andy’s been a great coach for a long time in this league. He’ll figure out the playoffs, eventually, right?

The Top Of The NFC Is Going To Be A Bloodbath

5. Los Angeles Rams

4. Minnesota Vikings

3. New Orleans Saints

2. Philadelphia Eagles

LA went all-in on this season and added a bunch of difficult personalities, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The Ndamukong Suh-Aaron Donald defensive tackle combination is the best in football, and Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters at corner havr a chance to be really good, even if both those guys are absolutely insane. Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks got paid a bunch of money, and Jared Goff should benefit even more from another year with head coach Sean McVay, who transformed him from a scared rookie in ’16 to a calm and poised starter in ’17. On paper, you could make the argument that this is the Super Bowl favorite, but I ranked them fifth because I think there’s a chance they added TOO MANY personalities. They almost remind me of the 2011 Eagles, a team that loaded up a ton on free agents, talked a bunch of crap about being a super team, and then plummeted to 8-8. I’m not saying that’s what’s going to happen, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out either. What if Goff got a one year bump from McVay, but then torpedoes in 2018 once everyone has a year of tape and a whole off-season to scheme for him? This isn’t a guy with a multi-year track record of success in this league, not yet anyway.

I ranked the Saints over the Vikings because they should’ve won the divisional playoff game between the two that was played in January. New Orleans slogged through the first three quarters before exploding for 24 points in the last 16 minutes. If Marcus Williams doesn’t screw up the tackle on Stefon Diggs, or if the Saints don’t play their worst game since September in the first three quarters, they go to Philly for the NFC Championship Game and have a great shot to make the Super Bowl.

Minnesota’s biggest change was the switch at QB from Case Keenum to Kirk Cousins….  I’m sorry, but are we sure Cousins is THAT much better than Keenum? Sure, I’d probably rather have Cousins, but it’s not like they upgraded from Keenum to one of the five best QBs in the league. Plus, it’s the Vikings. We’re talking about six decades of heart-breaking, gut punch losses here. No one gets the hopes of their fanbase up more than the Vikings, only to rip out there still-beating heart at the worst possible time. When they walked off against the Saints last season, every Minnesota fan thought, “Hell yes, we’ve finally got to the other side of this. The curse is broken. I don’t have to hate my life anymore while I’m scraping ice off my car every morning in -5 degree weather. I like being a winner. We’re winners now!”. Wrong. Philly annihilated them.

(Quick Tangent: No player since Marshall Faulk in 1999 has had a season with both 1,000+ rushing yards and 1000+ receiving yards. A year like that feels in play for the Saints Alvin Kamara, who finished last season with 728 rushing yards and 826 receiving yards, despite the fact that he barely played until the Saints traded Adrian Peterson after 4 games. With Mark Ingram suspended for the first four games of the season, Kamara's role will be even larger than it was in 2017, when he only had 120 rushing attempts. Tack on an additional 80-100 carries and he'll assuredly eclipse the 1,000 yard mark. The receiving yards may be a bit more difficult to attain, considering he did make 81 catches last season. Faulk had 87 catches in '99; could Kamara get to like 90 or 95? Seems probable, considering his expanded role. What this is really all about is me hoping this happens because I have him on one of my fantasy teams.)

I think the Eagles have a great shot to repeat, and the roster is loaded again, but the fact that Carson Wentz still hasn’t been cleared for contact should be concerning to Philly fans. Nick Foles was great in the playoffs, but let’s not forget that he was also almost out of the league two years ago. And with LeGarrette Blount’s departure to Detroit, Jay Ajayi becomes the featured back. Ugh… I’m not sure I’d like that. If Wentz comes back and regains his 2017 form (and I think he will eventually), then the Eagles will be in good shape to make the NFC Championship Game and lose to….

Your Super Bowl Champion

1. Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta has everything; a fast defense with an elite pass rusher in Vic Beasley, one of the ten best coaches in the league in Dan Quinn, a very good offensive line, two nice running backs, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, one of the three best receivers in the NFL, Julio Jones, and a B+ or A- QB, Matt Ryan. The first five games could be really difficult (at Philly, home for Carolina, home for New Orleans, home for the Bengals, at Pittsburgh), but their last 11 games include Arizona, Baltimore, Dallas, Cleveland, Washington, and two with Tampa. Even if they don’t win the NFC South, I don’t think it’ll matter come playoff time because they really don’t have any holes, assuming the offense can correct the issues it had last season. Think about this: they crapped themselves on offense for most of their divisional playoff game against the Super Bowl Champ Eagles in a cold weather game, and still came within inches of winning and advancing to the NFC title game. 

I’m not saying they’ll be the 2016 Falcon offense this season, but the defense will be good enough to make up for any gaps they may have on that end. Yes, yes, blowing the 28-3 Super Bowl lead will always be on their mind, but teams have overcome devastating losses before and captured championships. Plus, they were still able to get back to the playoffs in 2017 despite it and, as mentioned before, were only a few plays away from advancing to the NFC Championship Game again.

Super Bowl 53

Falcons 27 Chiefs 23

Enjoy the NFL this year! I know I will!

The Week In Football: Vols Get Blasted, Alabama Settles Their QB Controversy, And Jim Harbaugh Flounders

It was a great weekend of college football with what should be a fantastic conclusion tonight as Virginia Tech travels to Florida State for a pivotal early season ACC clash. I’ll be here every week recapping the biggest stories from each week of the college football season.

Tennessee got blasted by West Virginia

As I wrote on Saturday night, Jeremy Pruitt’s Vol debut was virtually absent of bright spots and confirmed many of my worst fears about this team, mainly the continued issues on the offensive line and a defense that has no playmakers or impact guys. I predicted 6-6 for them before the season, and that might’ve been generous.

As for West Virginia, Will Grier may be the best QB in the country, and with their relatively easy schedule, it’s conceivable that they could be 8-0 heading into the month of November. If they can survive a road test at Texas on November 3^rd, they’ll finish the season with a home game against TCU, a visit to Oklahoma State, and a game in Morgantown against Oklahoma. That’s a tough last month, but if Grier plays like he did Saturday, they’ll at least be able to stay in every game with their ability to put up points.

Tua Tagovailoa and Alabama destroyed Louisville and look like the best team in the country…. again

As dominant as Nick Saban has been the last decade at ‘Bama, it’s incredible that he’s done it without having a superstar QB. Tua looks like that guy, and, barring injury, I can’t see a scenario in where Jalen Hurts should take the field the rest of the season. To be fair, I don’t think Louisville is even a good team (they lost five games last year and that was with 2016 Heisman winner Lamar Jackson), but this game was never in doubt from the opening kick.

The biggest question for the Tide coming into the season, outside of the Tua/Jalen controversy, would be how their defense would play due to their multiple losses to the NFL draft. I don’t think Louisville’s Jawon Pass (great name!) was up to the challenge in his first career start, but the schedule will present a few potential challenges the next month and a half, including a road test in two weeks against an Ole Miss team that put up 47 points on Texas Tech on Saturday, and a home game against Missouri and Drew Lock, probably the best QB on their schedule, on October 13^th. The Tide have been, on rare occasions, torched during the Saban era, and that Ole Miss game feels like one where it could happen. Then again, if Tua plays every game like he has the last six quarters, there are few teams in the country who could even play them to within 10 points.

LSU dominated Miami and Ed Orgeron’s hot seat cools down… for now

The Tigers walloped the ‘Canes by 16 points despite being worse on 3^rd down (3-16 compared to 6-16) and gaining less yards (342 to 296). Plus, QB Joe Burrow was fairly pedestrian in his debut (11-24, 140 passing yards). The difference was the dominant LSU defense, which annihilated Miami’s Malik Rosier (15-35 passing, 2 picks), and the offense’s ability to hold onto the football. I think we have pretty good evidence now that this Hurricane team is only good if they’re capturing the momentum by forcing turnovers and throwing on that Chain. In their first ten games last season (all wins), Miami forced 30 turnovers. In their last four games (all losses), they’ve only forced one. And Malik Rosier has absolutely fallen off the cliff his last 4 games, with a completion percentage in the mid 40s. I picked the ‘Canes simply because I think Ed Orgeron is a really poor football coach, but I didn’t factor in that Miami is below average if they aren’t getting takeaways, and that Malik Rosier might just be completely cooked as a college QB. LSU still has a tough schedule, and their visit to Auburn in two weeks should be an absolute low scoring slug fest. If Orgeron wins that one then I might stop making jokes about him being a Cajun Hodor.

Washington was the better team against Auburn but they shot themselves in the foot

The Huskies had back to back possessions in the red zone in the second half and ended them with a missed field goal and a Jake Browning fumble. The ending of the first drive was particularly bad because they had a TD called back by an offensive pass interference penalty, which forced them backwards and set them up with a chance from 40 yards with their shaky kicker. If they’d come away with only field goals on those two drives, they win 22-21 and head back to Seattle with a virtual road win and become heavy favorites to make the playoff with their relatively easy schedule. Instead, they screw up both those possessions and make their road to anything beyond a Pac 12 championship significantly more difficult. Would a 12-1 conference champion Washington team make the playoff? Probably, but they have a razor thin margin for error now.

As for Auburn, the LSU game looms large in two weeks. Win that one and they’ll still have road games at Mississippi State, Georgia, and Alabama. They’ll need Jarrett Stidham to be a Heisman contender if they want to win all three of those.

Shea Patterson didn’t look like the savior at QB that Jim Harbaugh and Michigan needed against Notre Dame

Patterson led the Wolverines to only three points all night, and the offense put together their most impressive drive of the game when Patterson had to leave the field due to injury. His replacement, Dylan McCaffrey, looked poised and led them to their lone offensive TD. Patterson appeared flustered all night and turned the ball over twice. This is obviously a massive year for Harbaugh, and if Patterson continues to take a dump on the field like he did on Saturday, then I don’t see how you can’t at least throw McCaffrey in there and see what he’s got.

Harbaugh, for all the swagger and talk, is now 9-9 in his last 18 games. As a point of reference, Butch Jones was 8-10 in his last 18 games at Tennessee, and he got fired while quite possibly being the worst coach in the SEC during that stretch. Harbaugh has played 7 ranked teams the last 18 games; Butch played 6 in his final 18. Everyone thought this Harbaugh thing was going to be a slam dunk the second it happened, but at the end of the day he’s a pretty mediocre 28-12 in his first 40 games at Michigan. Previous coach Brady Hoke, who ended up being a disaster, was only one game worse at 27-13. Harbaugh is supposedly a QB whisperer and a great coach, but he only started winning big at Stanford when he got Andrew Luck. And when he stepped into the NFL with the Niners, he inherited a phenomenal defense in Year 1 and apex Colin Kaepernick in Year 2. Funny how Kaepernick got worse each season under Harbaugh. And now att Michigan, he hasn’t been able to figure out the QB position through 40 games. Harbaugh is paid like Nick Saban, but as of yet, he’s not even remotely close to him. The bad news is that the schedule is only going to get more difficult (at Ohio State, at Michigan State, at Northwestern, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Maryland, who beat Texas!). There is no good news.

This looks like a typical Notre Dame Brian Kelly squad. They were the more physical team from the opening kick and they didn’t appear affected by their offensive line losses. The Irish won’t be tested again until September 29^th when they host Stanford. If they win that one, they’ll likely be 5-0 and  in the playoff conversation.

Maryland knocked off Texas for the second straight year and Tom Herman’s Longhorns are far from a challenger in the Big 12

I don’t know if Tom Herman kept the entire Texas defense out at the strip club way too late the night before the game, but I can’t think of a better explanation for why they sucked so much other than that. The Horns have significantly better athletes than Maryland, a program that was completely in flux due to the Jordan McNair situation, and yet, the Terrapins looked like the faster, quicker, more athletic and physical team. And it’s not like the teams Texas will play the next month-plus will be worse athletically. From September 15^th to October 6, they’ll play three games against ranked teams: USC, TCU, and Oklahoma. All three of those feel like losses at this point even though the Southern Cal and TCU games are at home.

Chip Kelly lost his UCLA debut at home against Cincinnati

I picked the Bruins to win the Pac 12 South, basically because I don’t think there are really any good teams in that division, but I wouldn’t expect that to happen now with how Saturday turned out. I’m not worried about Kelly at UCLA long term because he’s a fantastic coach that happens to not have the right QB to run the offense he wants to implement. It was pretty telling that they started Wilton Speight there, a guy who is a worse athlete than I am. UCLA plays Oklahoma on Saturday, a game they’ll probably lose to start the Kelly era off at 0-2. It looks like it may end up being a tough year in Los Angeles, but Kelly is a sleeping giant and will be heard from eventually.

Oklahoma, Clemson, Georgia, Wisconsin, all rolled this weekend against vastly inferior competition

Clemson and Georgia face tough road games this weekend at Texas A&M and South Carolina, respectively, while the Sooners host UCLA. Wisconsin won’t play a Power 5 team until September 22 at Iowa. We’ll have a better idea about these four preseason playoff contenders by the time we get to October.

Michigan State and Penn State both almost lost to non-Power 5 teams

Utah State scored with 5:05 to go against Michigan State and led 31-30, while Appalachian State punched in a late touchdown to take a 38-31 lead on Penn State with 1:47 to go in the game. Both the Spartans and the Nittany Lions were able to rally for a touchdown drive of their own, and James Franklin's team was able to hold on to win in overtime, but I wouldn’t feel good of I was either of those teams, particularly about my defense. Throw in Ohio State, who won 77-31 against Oregon State, but still gave up 196 rushing yards, and it was a lackluster week for the Big Ten East. Somehow, Maryland had the best week of all the teams in that division.

-

It’s going to be a fantastic season. Enjoy your Labor Day and Va Tech-FSU tonight!

West Virginia Stomps Tennessee And Confirms All Of Our Concerns About The 2018 Vols

West Virginia spoiled Jeremy’s Pruitt’s Tennessee debut by throttling the Vols 40-14. Will Grier carved up the Vols overmatched secondary all day while Dana Holgersen had perhaps his most glorious hair day since this:

What’s concerning about today is that while Grier finished with 429 yards and 5 TDs, he could’ve had about 500 yards and 7 TDs if he’d hit all of his throws in the first half. He missed a few open guys and strangely held the ball too long and ran around often during the first thirty minutes, before settling in during what was almost a perfect second half. I wrote yesterday that I thought the Tennessee defense while being much improved, would also be the strength of the team, but they didn’t come close to my expectations today. It was a typical "we just got torched for over 500 yards and 40 points" performance; missed tackles, busted coverages, guys in the wrong spot, etc. The secondary in particular stood out for their ineptitude, especially their cornerbacks. They couldn't have covered my Angry Old Man today, and yes, he's old, slow, fat, and white.

On the bright side, the Vols won’t face a better quarterback than Grier all season; he’s a probable first round NFL talent with a strong, accurate arm, and if WVU has a really good year, a Heisman candidate. But they also won’t be playing a bunch of no talent stiffs the rest of the year either, and it won’t matter how poor the QB play is on the other side if the defense is even worse.

I don’t understand all this “unleashing Nigel Warrior” crap that was put out there this off-season. As far as I can tell the only reason he’s hyped as much as he has been is because he’s got an awesome name and his dad is Vol legend Dale Carter. Other than that I just see him running around missing tackles and getting beat in coverage. But he’s not the only disappointment on that side of the ball, considering there's no one on Tennessee’s defense that appears to be a game changer or impact guy. Who is the player that keeps opposing coaches up at night? Better yet, where’s the nasty?

In other bad news, for the 1000^th straight year, the offensive line looks like it's going to be a problem. On play 1 of the season Brandon Kennedy whiffed about as bad as you can on a block and allowed Jarrett Guarantano to get body slammed into the grass less than two seconds after he received the snap. Sure, they opened up a few holes for the run game here and there, but most of the success of the ground game was achieved by Tim Jordan outside of the tackles. And while Guarantano impressed me with his accuracy, he also only had one pass play that went for more than 20 yards. Why? Because I don’t think Pruitt and OC Tyson Helton trust the O-Line to hold blocks long enough for anything to open up down the field.

Here are the ten Tennessee drives:

3 plays, -15 yards, punt

9 plays, 36 yards, punt

3 plays, -7 yards, punt

17 plays, 78 yards, TD

5 plays, 30 yards, punt

3 plays, 0 yards, punt

5 plays, 75 yards, TD

6 plays, 23 yards, punt

8 plays, 61 yards, downs

4 plays, 12 yards, end of game

So you’ve got one methodical drive that ended with a TD, one quick drive that ended with a TD, and five drives that ended with less than 25 yards. Why? Guarantano is accurate and isn’t afraid to stand in the pocket even if that means he’ll get demolished. Ty Chandler (who got hurt) and Tim Jordan are competent backs, and they’ve got three receivers (Marquez Callaway, Brandon Johnson, and Jauan Jennings) who can get open and catch passes. It’s because the offensive line was really bad. There’s no consistency drive to drive or play to play from them, even against a mediocre West Virginia defense that’s going to get torched 6 or 7 times against their Big 12 conference foes this season.

I thought Pruitt had a solid debut and I liked the gutsy call on 4^th and goal in the first half that resulted in a touchdown. Butch Jones definitely would’ve kicked the field goal in that situation. One game, even as badly as this one went, doesn’t define what kind of coach he’ll be, or even what kind of a season Tennessee will have the rest of the year. We won’t learn anything about this team the next two weeks against either ETSU or UTEP; we’ll have to wait until September 22 against Florida to see how this team responds to similarly skilled athletes trying to beat them. If Pruitt is good at getting the most out of his players, and all the available evidence suggest that he is, then I suspect the team will get better each week. There's a chance this could be their worst performance of the season, but if they don’t want to get their heads ripped off by the physical athletes in the Florida front seven in three weeks, they'll need to muster a much better performance.

How Will Jeremy Pruitt Do In Year 1 On Rocky Top? Plus, Week 1 College Football Picks And Playoff Predictions

Anyone who has followed Tennessee football this century doesn’t need a reminder of how poorly things have gone for this program recently. Since the 2001 SEC Championship Game, an absolute travesty that saw the second-ranked and heavily-favored Vols lose by double digits to a three-loss LSU team that they dominated earlier in the season, there hasn’t been a whole lot to cheer about in Knoxville. Here's some "highlights": 

1. National Championship winning coach and Vol legend Phillip Fulmer presided over two losing seasons in a four years and was shown the door at the end of 2008. 
2. Tennessee hired what they thought would be an up and comer in Lane Kiffin before the 2009 season, only to see him bolt for USC in the middle of the night 13 months later. 
3. They then whiffed horribly on back-to-back hires with Derek Dooley and Butch Jones, the former who was more in over his head than a drowning toddler, and the latter who so far surpassed the previous record for coach speak that he’ll never be approached by anyone ever in the history of sports.

Now it’s Jeremy Pruitt’s turn to try and revive the once-proud Vols, and he’ll take his first step in that attempt Saturday's season opener against West Virginia in Charlotte. The Mountaineers are ten point favorites and are led by one of the best quarterbacks in the country, Will Grier, a man who once broke my heart worse than every girl who rejected me in high school with a 61 yard miracle on fourth and long during his time with Florida.

Here’s all we know about Tennessee this season:

I don’t care if Jeremy Pruitt has never been a head coach before, he’s an upgrade over Butch Jones.

The lone positive of the Butch Jones-era was that he significantly improved the talent on the Vol roster from where it was when he took over before the 2013 season. Other than that, there's really nothing, particularly when you consider that the disastrous 2017 season can be laid directly at Butch’s feet. The Florida game was coaching malfeasance, and it ended up being the last straw for the entire team, who quickly came to the conclusion that this guy was full of crap, which led to them tuning him out, and eventually, quitting on the season. It was really telling when multiple players started sharing/liking criticism of him on social media. I have no idea if Pruitt will be a better game coach, but he’ll at least go after players and demand excellence and betterment, particularly in front of the media. We won’t have to hear “champions of life” or “five star hearts” or “the best bye week we’ve had here in a long time” from his mouth. Butch’s act got stale very quickly; Pruitt’s, for now, is fresh.

The Vols have 13 returning starters from a team that was ranked in the Top 25 to start last season

Yes, yes, preseason rankings are nothing more than opinions without evidence, but objective observers looked at last year’s Vol team on paper and expected them to be able to compete for the SEC East title. That obviously didn’t happen, but I don’t think it was because a lack of talent. If Butch doesn’t screw up the Florida game, then I think the Vols go 8-4 again and we could be looking at 2018 as Butch’s sixth year, as incredible as that sounds. Instead, everything spiraled out of control after that game, which eventually led to the worst season in program history.

We still don’t know who the starting quarterback will be because Pruitt is keeping everyone in the dark, but I don’t think the Keller Chryst/Jarrett Guarantano question is changing the outcome of the season all that much. Regardless, the Tennessee offense can’t be much worse than it was last season, considering they once went three straight games without scoring an offensive touchdown. Jauan Jennings's return from injury should help the team at receiver, and hopefully the Vols will find a way to involve the explosive Marquez Callaway in the offense more, a guy who burnt Georgia Tech for 115 receiving yards and two touchdowns in last year’s opener, his only highlight of the year because I guess he borrowed Harry Potter's Invisibility Cloak and was never heard from again. Was it the scheme? Or was it that he wasn’t actually that good in the first place? We’ll have a definitive answer this year as I’m throwing out everything about the 2017 Vols because of how poorly the team was coached.

I can’t decide which stat tells the story of the 2017 Tennessee Vol offense better, the fact that Brandon Johnson was their leading receiver with only 482 yards, or that they finished with 3,493 total offensive yards, only 171 more yards than the 3,323 yards they punted for.  

The offensive line has been a problem since the Dooley era, and besides Trey Smith, who was just medically cleared to play due to blood clots, I don’t feel great about anyone in that unit. Drew Richmond is the most experienced returner, with 13 starts, but he’s shown to be at best an average offensive lineman. Pruitt has preached winning the line of scrimmage and physicality, but the offense won’t reach it’s potential if the line sucks as bad as it has the last decade. 

The potential for poor line play is the argument for starting Guarantano, as he’s the more mobile of the two QBs, and whoever is standing back their might be running for their life half the time. It’s up in the air about whether or not new offensive coordinator Tyson Helton, the former USC QB coach, is going to be a good play caller. He had the privilege of coaching Sam Darnold during his two years at Southern Cal, and a player as talented as Darnold can make any coaching staff look competent. The only thing we learned about Guarantano last season is that he could take a pounding, and Chryst was a below average college QB during his career at Stanford. In 23 games over three seasons, he threw for 19 touchdowns, 1926 yards, and completed less than 56% of his passes. Helton has never had this much responsibility with this much unknown at quarterback.

As shaky as the offense is could be, I’m actually pretty high on their defensive potential. Despite all the talent, that side of the ball underachieved massively in 2017. Their only highlight was Rashaan Gaulden’s double birds after Daniel Bituli’s interception return against Alabama when they were getting their ass beat like every antagonist in a Steven Segal film. 

Daniel Bituli, last season’s leading tackler and most consistent defender, is back, as well as a group of talented upperclassmen who haven’t lived up to their potential. Every starter is an upperclassman with the exception of one of the cornerback spots, which will be filled by one of two freshman, Alontae Taylor or Bryce Thompson. The rest of the defensive starters are all names you’ve heard before; Darrell Taylor, Quart’e Sapp, Darrin Kirkland Jr, Shy Tuttle, Nigel Warrior (great name!), Micah Abernathy, Johnathan Kongbo, Alexis Johnson Jr, Kyle Phillips, etc. It’s the last opportunity for many of them to leave their mark on this program. Pruitt is a defensive coach, and he’s been able to get the most out of the talented players he coached at both Alabama and Florida State. Starting to right the ship on that side of the ball should be the easiest and most obvious improvement on this team during Pruitt’s first year.

The schedule couldn’t be more brutal

After opening with West Virginia in Charlotte, the Vols get two cupcakes (ETSU, UTEP), before a daunting five-games-in-six-weeks stretch that goes like this: Florida, at #3 Georgia, bye week, at #9 Auburn, #1 Alabama, and at South Carolina. Sheesh. They could very easily lose all five of those games, and if they get beat on Saturday, a 2-6 record heading into November is very possible. Their last four (Charlotte, Kentucky, Missouri, and at Vanderbilt) all appear winnable, until you remember that Kentucky has been improving every year under Mark Stoops, Missouri is a dark horse contender in the East with Drew Lock, perhaps the best quarterback in the entire conference, and that Vanderbilt has beaten Tennessee by double digits the last two years. I don’t think 3-9 is in play, but they do have nine legitimate loseable games on the schedule.

So if I had to predict their record going through the schedule, I do it this way:

West Virginia: Loss. The Vols have too many questions on offense, particularly for this early in the season. The defense would have to play the game of their lives and that still might not be enough, as the Mountaineers are going to be able to put up points regardless of the opponent.

ETSU: Win

UTEP: Win

Florida: Win. A couple things in Tennessee’s favor:

1. The Vols were clearly the more talented team last year when these teams played, and the only reason they lost was because Butch Jones was completely incompetent
2. The game is in Knoxville
3. Florida’s starting quarterback is Feleipe Franks. Not scary.
4. It’s the first game in their six week gauntlet, and they won’t exactly be worn down from the previous two weeks of playing UTEP and ETSU. 

@ Georgia: Loss. The Bulldogs are a national title contender playing at home against a team they spanked 41-0 the previous year.

@ Auburn: Loss. Tough road game. The bye week before could help, as long as it’s not one of those Butch Jones “best bye week we’ve ever had here” bye weeks were you come out the next week and crap the bed against South Carolina and score no touchdowns.

Alabama: Loss. The Vols haven’t beaten the Tide since 2006, and unfortunately, it won’t happen this year, either.

@ South Carolina: Loss. I’m not a Will Muschamp guy at all, despite all the praise he got coming off last year’s 9 win season in Year 2 with the Gamecocks. Prediction: Muschamp has already peaked at South Carolina. In Year 2 at Florida he won 11 games and looked like he was the next great coach in the SEC. He then followed that up by winning 10 games the next two years and getting fired. I’m not convinced he and his beer gut are going to work long term at South Carolina, but that doesn't change the fact that he, as a head coach, is somehow 6-0 against Tennessee. That bad juju, combined with the fact that it’s a South Carolina home game, and that it’s the fifth straight emotional, high level, physical game for this Tennessee team tips the scales in the favor of South Carolina.

Charlotte: Win

Kentucky: Win. From 1985-2017, Tennessee lost to Kentucky just twice. I’m just betting on that trend continuing.

Missouri: Loss. The Tigers return 9 starters from an offense that scored 45 points or more in their last six games, all victories. Drew Lock is probably the best quarterback in the conference, and like I said before, I think Mizzou is a real threat to win the East. They really only have one tough scheduling break, four week stretch from September 22 to October 13 where they host Georgia, get their bye week, go to South Carolina, and then travel to Alabama. If they could knock off the Bulldogs, they’d still be in the conference race even if they lost both games against the Gamecocks and the Tide, meaning they could still have a lot to play for when they meet Tennessee in the middle of November.

@ Vanderbilt: Win. Needing a victory to get to six wins and a bowl game, Tennessee SHOULD be able to beat Vanderbilt. Plus, the Vols haven’t lost to the Commodores three times in a row since 1926.

6-6 with a victory over Florida and a 3-5 conference record would be a solid debut for Pruitt, even if it’d somehow be Tennessee’s tenth season since 2005 with seven or fewer victories, which is just an absolutely incredible statistic for a program as successful as this one has been. Then again, the fans are going to expect the Vols, even if they don’t win every game, to at least be competitive week to week. Pruitt isn’t taking over the dumpster fire program that Butch inherited from Dooley; the cupboard isn’t empty.

Year 1 won’t tell Pruitt’s story in Knoxville. A lot of great coaches have struggled in their first season at a new job. Nick Saban went 6-6 his first year at Alabama, and no one thought Kirby Smart would burst onto the scene in Year 2 at Georgia after the way his first season turned out. But keep this in mind, because I’m going to be writing this over and over again: since the inception of the SEC Championship Game in 1992, every single coach that won the SEC had at least 9 victories in a season by his second year at the school. Meaning that if you’re a great coach and a successful hire, you get things turned around quickly. There’s 25+ years of evidence now. We’ll know where we stand with Pruitt by the end of the 2019 season.

And now that you’ve read over 2000 words about Tennessee’s upcoming season, why not stick around for my (I swear they won’t be crappy, or at least hope not!) college picks? I haven’t done these weekly in a long time, but this year feels like the right time to bring them back. These aren’t gambling picks, just straight up winners and losers. And trust me, you wouldn’t want to gamble based on these picks anyway. Unless you want a mob boss showing up to your house and cracking your kneecaps with a bat.

Without further ado….

Alabama over Louisville (in Orlando)

The easiest pick of the opening weekend, and it doesn’t even matter who starts at QB for the Tide, because the only thing Nick Saban does more often than win national titles is destroy non conference opponents in neutral sites. Since 2008, Alabama has opened up against a non conference opponent at a neutral site every year except in 2010 and 201l; they’ve won all of those games by ten points or more. Louisville’s new quarterback Jawon Pass (great name!) is making his first career start against the number 1 team in the country, and in the four years Cardinals’ coach Bobby Petrino was the head coach at Arkansas, he was 0-4 against Saban, including three defeats by 24 points or more. Alabama may face issues down the road with graduation/guys leaving for the NFL draft, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, but I don’t expect any of that to flare up this week because Louisville isn’t that talented. The Tide will win by three touchdowns.

Michigan over Notre Dame (@ Notre Dame)

It’s now or never for the Jim Harbaugh era at Michigan. Ohio State is in flux from the Urban Meyer-Zach Smith situation, and Penn State lost their best player in Saquon Barkley to the NFL draft. Plus, he has TEN returning starters on defense, and with Shea Patterson’s transfer from Ole Miss, the best quarterback he’s had since he set foot in Ann Arbor. This is the best chance he’s had since he’s been there to break through, beat Ohio State, win the Big Ten, and take the Wolverines to the playoff. There’s been Harbaugh blowback with how the last three years have turned out, but it’s also fair to point out that he’s a weird punt mishandling against Michigan State in 2015 and a bad spot against Ohio State in 2016 away from being Big Ten Champs once or twice and having one or two appearances in the college football playoff. Harbaugh’s track record suggests he should get it going at Michigan eventually, right? I at least believe in them this week against the Irish and Brian Kelly, who is only a mediocre 14-17 against ranked opponents since he arrived in South Bend in 2010. Plus, Notre Dame lost their two best offensive lineman from last year’s team, only their biggest strength from last season's 10 win team. I expect a regression back to Brian Kelly’s mean this year.

Washington over Auburn (in Atlanta)

This is an upset pick here, and virtually a road game for the Huskies, as they have to travel all the way across the country and through three different time zones, whereas Auburn can basically drive to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in a golf cart. The argument for Washington is that they return 16 starters from last year’s team that went 10-3, including their three year starter at QB Jake Browning AND nine players from a defense that has allowed the fewest points in the Pac 12 the last three seasons. I’m also not all that high on Auburn this year. Gus Malzahn has been largely mediocre during his five year tenure, besides his first season in 2013 when his Tigers went 12-2 and were a late touchdown from winning the national title, and last year, an uneven season that saw them defeat Alabama, win the SEC West, and somehow still find a way to still finish with four losses. They’ve been ready to fire him about 1000 different times, and if he didn’t have the triumvirate of the Hail Mary against Georgia and the Kick Six against 'Bama from 2013, as well as LSU’s inability to get the play off before they scored the winning TD in 2016, he'd probably be doing TV or coaching high school football somewhere by now. Here’s an incredible stat for you: in five years at Auburn, Malzahn has won only one non-conference game away from home against a Power 5 team (including bowl games), when the Tigers beat Kansas State in Manhattan back in 2014. I actually think Washington makes the four team playoff again this year; the only tough stretch of their schedule is when they play back-to-back road games on October 6^th and October 13^th against UCLA and Oregon. Otherwise, the schedule breaks in their favor; they avoid USC and get Stanford at home.

Miami over LSU (in Arlington)

The Hurricanes had a bounce back year last season after a decade plus of wandering in the wilderness. They started 2-17 10-0 and Turnover Chain-ed their way to within a game of an ACC Title and a berth in the College Football Playoff. It remains to be seen if Mark Richt is capable of winning a national title, but he certainly won a hell of lot of games at Georgia, and appears to be on his way to doing so at The U. Starting quarterback Malik Rosier returns, as do a slew of other talented players on both sides of the ball from last year’s team.

LSU seems to be trending the opposite direction. I’d believe that Ed Orgeron, based on his speech pattern alone, is a lifeless corpse powered by a mice with controls inside his skull. Coach O had the benefit of coaching what was mostly Les Miles’s talented players last season; they’ll be less of those guys around this season. Ohio State transfer Joe Burrow is the starting QB, which scares… no one. Steve Ensminger is the new offensive coordinator after the Matt Canada experiment failed last season. The last two times Ensminger was an OC anywhere, it was at Auburn in 2008 and at LSU in 2016, when he took over for fired coordinators at mid-season. How did those offenses perform? Poorly! His ’08 Auburn offense didn’t score more than 22 points against any SEC opponent, while his ’16 LSU offense scored 0 and 10 points against the two best defenses he played, Alabama and Florida. I’m not sure Orgeron has any clue about how to put together a competent offensive attack, and he won’t get any help from Ensminger, who won’t get any help from his unproven QB. And you thought Les Miles’s offenses were bad!

Plus, the schedule is really difficult; from October 6 to November 3, the Tigers play at Florida, home against Georgia, home against Mississippi State, get their bye week, and then host Alabama. That could very easily be 0-4 even though they get three of those games at home. And that’s not including their September 15 game at Auburn, or their season finale at Texas A&M. I said when Orgeron got promoted from the interim coach to the head man in 2016 that he wouldn't be the coach in three years, and I’ll stand by that prediction. A losing season feels in play for this team.

Virginia Tech over Florida State (@ FSU)

I’m making this pick based solely on the coaching match up. Justin Fuente is 38-14 in his last four seasons as a coach at both Memphis and Virginia Tech, and is backed by Bud Foster, one of the best defensive coordinators in the country. Meanwhile, FSU’s Willie Taggart is 47-50 overall as a head coach, has only had one ten win season, has never won a conference championship, and yet, he has somehow been able to keep tricking people into giving him better and better head coaching gigs. He was 16-20 at Western Kentucky, 24-25 at South Florida, and 7-5 in his lone year at Oregon. Why is everyone enamored with this guy? Did he hack the iCloud and steal naked pictures of every athletic director in the country? Is he a more fun hang that Tom Herman? I have no clue. Regardless, the 97 game sample of his coaching career tells me he won’t be successful at FSU. What’s going to be hilarious is when he finds a way to convince USC to hire him when the Trojans finally get off the Clay Helton train.

Finally, here’s my predictions for each of the Power 5 conferences AND the College Football Playoff:

SEC West: Alabama

SEC East: Missouri

SEC Champ: Alabama

I don’t care how many defensive starters the Tide have lost (it’s 8!), I’m not ever picking against Alabama in the SEC again until Saban retires or Bryant-Denny Stadium is destroyed by a meteorite during a fall Saturday. As for the East… I’m pushing all my chips in with Mizzou. They’ve got the best quarterback in the division and a workable schedule. What’s that? Derek Dooley is Mizzou’s offensive coordinator? DEREK DOOLEY? Oh… well, not even he could screw this up.

(Thinking….)

(GULP)

Big Ten East: Michigan State

Big Ten West: Wisconsin

Big Ten Champ: Michigan State

Even though Urban Meyer has been proven a hypocrite, a liar, and a fraud during this entire Zach Smith saga, that doesn’t change the fact that he’s a great football coach. Hell, that’s the only reason he got to keep his job. If this was Ed Orgeron, LSU would have already buried his body somewhere deep in the Bayou so he could return to the place from whence he came. The truth is, even if the Buckeyes lose their Week 3 game without Meyer at TCU, their schedule would still give them a great opportunity to win the Big Ten and make the playoff. Their toughest road games, at Penn State and at Michigan State, are separated by more than a month, and they get Michigan in Columbus to end the season. The argument against them is simple... THEY'RE HEAD COACH JUST GOT SUSPENDED FOR HOW HE HANDLED ONE OF HIS ASSISTANTS BEATING HIS WIFE. There's no way that's not a major distraction all season. Plus, they have a new quarterback, Dwayne Haskins, who we know nothing about besides some glowing stories. Who cares? He's totally unproven. 

Michigan’s schedule is one of the toughest in the country, and it includes a brutal three game stretch from October 13 to November 3 that goes like this: home for Wisconsin, at Michigan State, bye week, home for Penn State. Throw in a road game against what could be a feisty Northwestern team, and the aforementioned road game against Ohio State at the end of the year, and I suspect the schedule will be too much for them, even for the amount of talent they have. 

Penn State has back to back home games against Ohio State and Michigan State on September 29^th and October 13^th, plus the road game against Michigan followed by a home game against Wisconsin in consecutive weeks. I think the loss of Saquon Barkley will really hurt this team, even if senior Trace McSorley is potentially the best QB in the division. 

I’m taking the Spartans to win the division because of their workable schedule (they get both Michigan and Ohio State at home, and those games are separated by three weeks. Plus, they catch Penn State the week after they play Ohio State) and their 19 returning starters from last year’s 10-3 team, including QB Brian Lewerke Jr., who put up the second best season in school history last season in terms of total yardage.

I expect Wisconsin to win the West without much of a fight, but we’ve seen this story with Big Ten West teams before, namely the Badgers and Iowa: they go through the regular season undefeated or with one loss due to their easier schedules, and then show up and lose to the better, more talented and battle-tested teams out of the East.

ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech

ACC Atlantic: Clemson

ACC Champ: Clemson

I think Clemson will mash everyone all season and easily make the playoff as the undefeated number 1 team in the country. They return Kelly Bryant at quarterback, who was really effective all season until he got bullied more than the biggest loser in a middle school by the Alabama defense during the playoff semifinals. On the other side of the ball, the Tiger defense returns eight starters, including six from a front seven that set the tone for nation's second ranked scoring defense. The Coastal Division will come down to the Va Tech-Miami game in Blacksburg on November 17. I went with the Hokies because they’re the home team in that one.

Pac 12 North: Washington

Pac 12 South: UCLA

Pac 12 Champ: Washington

I gave this one away about 2000 words ago during the Auburn-UW portion of this. As far as the South division is concerned, I could’ve talked myself into all six of the teams, but I ended up going with the Bruins because CHIP KELLY IS BACK IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL and he’s by far the best coach in that division. The NFL thing was more disappointing than Season 7 of Game of Thrones, but never forget that during his four years at Oregon, he went 46-7 and won three Pac 12 titles. It’s a question of when he gets things rolling in Los Angeles, not if.

Big 12 1^st Place: Oklahoma

Big 12 2^nd Place: Iowa State

Big 12 Champ: Oklahoma

I have no clue about this conference because everyone scores a zillion points and no one plays any defense. It’s basically a 60 minute pillow fight where guys occasionally run into each other. I'm rolling the dice with Iowa State because they return 15 starters from last year’s 8-5 team that shocked everyone. They were also able to hold onto Matt Campbell, one of the best young coaches in the country. Oklahoma’s defense will probably suck again, but it won't ultimately matter because they still have more talent than anyone in the conference. Texas has been getting a lot of love as a potential contender, but unfortunately for their head coach Tom Herman, they don’t play football games in a strip club.

My Four Team Playoff

1.      Clemson

2.      Alabama

3.      Washington

4.      Michigan State

2018 National Championship Game

Clemson 31, Alabama 28

Enjoy the season guys. Football is back!

Is Tiger Woods A Contender At The U.S. Open?

Take a journey back in time with me for a moment, if you will. It’s Father’s Day 2008, and Tiger Woods is limping to the 72^nd green at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. The birdie putt he’s facing is one of the biggest of his life: if he makes it, he’ll force an 18 hole playoff with Rocco Mediate the next day; if he misses, he’ll go home empty handed, with his first ever blown 54 hole lead at a Major Championship.

The fact that Woods even had a birdie putt to force the playoff was incredible. Two days after the championship, Tiger revealed that he was having season ending knee surgery on a leg that was so screwed up that it forced him to play the entire tournament on basically one leg. That faulty knee had been plaguing him for months, and it had severely limited his ability to play in the weeks leading up to the Open, which sapped a significant about of match practice. Woods had also hit his drive on the 72^nd hole into a bunker, and then fired his second shot into the rough. To force the playoff, he would need to hit a beautiful approach shot onto the green in a spot that would place him close enough to the hole to give him a realistic chance of sinking a birdie putt.

We all know what happened, of course. Woods knocked the ball to within 12 feet, and then dramatically rolled in his birdie putt, taking in the cheers from the fans around the 18^th green as he busted out a classic Tiger fist pump.

The next day, Tiger defeated Mediate in the playoff, needing a 19^th hole to finish him off. He captured his 14^th major that day, and won the career Grand Slam for the third time, becoming only the second golfer (after Jack Nicklaus) to do so. At just 32, we would’ve believed any outcome for his career. 25 majors? Sure, why not? He’ll definitely pass Jack’s 18 majors, right? It seemed inconceivable that he wouldn’t.

It’s incredible how things have changed. Since then, there’s been the highly publicized divorce and affairs, a million different knee and back injuries, an embarrassing DUI photo, countless numbers of TV talking heads psycho-analyzing him on a daily basis, and perhaps most shockingly, no major championships.

We all wanted Woods to compete at Augusta back in April. Tiger was back, right? He’d competed well at some tournaments, by his own admission, he was as healthy as he’d been in years, and he’d been wildly successful at the Masters before. “He’ll be in contention on Sunday!” we all said. Or hoped.

I remember watching his entire first round, waiting for the old Tiger to appear. He never showed up. His drives were more than adequate that day, but a few poor iron shots, coupled with his below average putting, doomed him to a 1 over 73, seven shots behind the leader Jordan Spieth. To have a realistic chance to be a contender on the weekend, he’d need to shoot about 4 under on Friday. Instead, he went the other way, shooting a 3 over 75, putting him a +4 for the tournament, and 13 shots behind the eventual winner, Patrick Reed. Sure, it was impressive when Tiger shot a 3 under 69 on Sunday, but it came in a round that was about as pressure-free as you can get on a Sunday at Augusta, considering he didn’t have a chance in hell at winning at that point.

Obviously, winning a major, or even contending for one, is extremely difficult, but it used to not be that way for Tiger. From the ’99 PGA Championship to the ’02 U.S. Open, Woods won seven of the 11 majors, including his famous “Tiger Slam”, when he won four consecutive majors from the ’00 U.S. Open to the ’01 Masters. After missing out on all the majors during 2003 and 2004, Woods regained his form starting in 2005. From the ’05 Masters to the ’08 U.S. Open, Woods captured six of the 14 majors, and finished in the top four 6 other times. In the 46 majors he played in from the ’97 Masters until the ’08 U.S. Open, he won 14 majors, finished in the top five 25 times, landed in the top ten 29 times, and only missed the cut once.

I think it’s time we admit what Tiger is at this point: assuming he can stay healthy, he’s an average pro who will be able to occasionally compete at majors, as long as the course isn’t too difficult and the weather is comfortable and predictable. Other times, he’ll shoot three consecutive rounds at par or worse, like he did in this year’s Masters. Due to his multiple injuries, he’s lost the ability to physically overpower a golf course, but what I’d be more concerned about if I was hoping for another Tiger major victory is what appears to be his lack of competitive fire. Sure, it’s possible he was just happy to be out there playing in a major again, something he hadn’t done since 2015, but he was smiling when Tom Rinaldi interviewed him the clubhouse after his first round +1 at Augusta. And after his final round, he offered up this summation of his weekend: “Obviously, it didn't pan out. I didn't hit my irons good enough, I didn't make enough birdies, I made too many mistakes. But overall, it was fun to be able to compete again and play in the Masters.”

Fun to be able to compete? That sounds like something some no-name pro would say after he finished his first time at Augusta, not something you’d expect from arguably the greatest golfer of all time. Awesome, you competed and made the cut, but you also finished 16 shots back of the winner, and over par for the tournament. And you were playing your best golf in years coming into the tournament, and were even the betting favorite at one point coming into the weekend. I’m not saying you tear the clubhouse apart, but I expected a little more disappointment than that.

Then again, maybe he’s just worn down from it all. All the (justified) criticism of his personal life, the destruction of his body, the loss of his dominance at the thing he was better at than anyone else…. Maybe he’s just comfortable with being average. Maybe he’s just used to it.

His ‘08 U.S. Open triumph was many surgeries, multiple breakups, and an innumerable amount of “What’s Wrong With Tiger Woods?” articles and stories ago. Seriously, think about how long ago that was. When Tiger defeated Rocco in that playoff, George W. Bush was still the president, Nick Saban had won exactly zero SEC and national championships at Alabama, LeBron James was still two years away from joining the Heat, The Dark Knight was more than a month away from appearing in theaters, and “Lollipop” by Lil Wayne was the number 1 song in the country.

The guy that closed out tournaments with ease when he had a 54 hole lead, and the guy that caused opposing players to cower in fear as they saw his name climbing the leaderboard, isn’t coming back. The guy who chipped in a miracle birdie at 16 during the ’05 Masters won’t be making a reappearance. Neither will the Tiger who set the scoring record at Augusta during the ’97 Masters, nor the Tiger who won the ’00 U.S. Open by a record fifteen strokes.

I’m going into this U.S. Open weekend hoping Tiger magically regains his form, putts like the old Woods, and fist pumps his way to another major. It’d be the best story in sports this year, maybe even the decade, if the fallen former champion was able to climb the mountain again and capture his 15^th major. That seems pretty improbable though, considering the difficulty of the course he’ll be facing this weekend. Shinnecock Hills is hosting its fourth U.S. Open, and the winning scores the previous three times were -4, even par, and -1. There’s not much margin for error here, and Woods won’t be able to make up some of the gaps in his putting by outdriving everyone, since he’s lost the ability to launch the ball off the tee further than everyone else by his own admission. I foresee another middle of the road finish for Tiger this weekend, and maybe even four consecutive rounds over par. 

The NBA Finals Are Already Over

For the second year in a row, the Warriors are blowing Cleveland off the floor. This series is over, and frankly, it was over on Thursday night in Game 1 when LeBron threw up a 51-8-8, one of the best games of his career, and the Cavs still lost. They hung around tonight for most of the first three quarters, until Steph Curry went bonkers in the 4^th quarter and started making shots from the parking lot.

LeBron knows he can’t beat this team. That’s why he came out after Game 1 and talked about how it was one of the most devastating losses of his career. He played out of his mind, and then had the rug pulled out from under him by the changed block/charge call, George Hill’s missed free throw, J.R. Smith’s boneheaded blunder, and their overall poor team effort in the overtime. They squandered a very winnable Game 1, and it completely changed what the series could’ve been. It reminded me of Game 1 of the ’95 Finals, when Orlando’s Nick Anderson went to the free throw line with under 15 seconds to play and Magic up by three. He missed both foul shots, but got the offensive rebound and was fouled again. He then, incredibly, missed both of those foul shots. Houston got the rebound, Kenny Smith hit a three to send it to overtime, a game the Rockets eventually won. Orlando was cooked after that, and despite some impressive Shaq games, they ended up getting swept. Cleveland’s loss on Thursday wasn’t quite that heartbreaking, but there was a feeling that this loss could linger and end up hovering above the whole series.

In terms of adjustments, as incredible as this sounds, Cleveland is going to need more from LeBron scoring-wise. Great, he almost had a triple double tonight. So what? They lost by 19 and got their doors blown off in the 4th quarter. LeBron had 13 assists tonight, but that's not all that impressive when you consider that he didn’t come off the floor until late in the 4^th quarter (when the game was already decided), coupled with the fact that he literally decides every possession for his team. He either takes the shot, or passes to the guy who shoots. Some of those shots are going to eventually fall, and thus, the assist numbers. He's like Russell Westbrook in that respect. Does anyone think Westbrook is a phenomenal passer? No, they recognize that he literally has his hands on the ball all the time, and decides everything. Cleveland really needs LeBron looking for his own offense, putting his head down, and getting to the rim every single possession. With the Warriors missing Andre Iguodala, their best perimeter defender, LeBron should be able to get by everyone on the Golden State roster whenever he wants. And once he beats his primary defender, it’s not like he has to worry about anyone substantial waiting at the rim for him. Yes, this includes Javale McGee, who before tonight hadn’t been heard from in a basketball context all season besides on “Shaqtin’ A Fool”. On a night when really only Kevin Love (22 points) had it going, tonight needed to be a night where LeBron looked around and  realized that he needed to try and get 40. And I’m not knocking him here too much; he’s clearly outgunned in this series, but this passive all-around game he played tonight isn’t going to cut it if they want to even win a one game. Of course, maybe LeBron didn't take over because he was too tired to do so. He looked gassed, particularly when he went to the bench during timeouts in the second half. He's been forced to pick up his defensive effort in this series, because he'd become a complete defensive liability if he didn't, but add in the fact that he's playing almost every minute, and carrying such a heavy load on the offensive end, 29 points might be all he's able to muster on a nightly basis. 

Regardless, this backs up what I wrote during the last Rockets-Warriors series about Golden State, which is that we all like to talk ourselves into these NBA series involving them being in doubt because we want competitive basketball. Once Chris Paul got hurt, Houston was finished. And as soon as Cleveland advanced to the Finals, winning more than one game against this Golden State team would’ve been a miracle. Great teams aren’t a problem in the NBA; what can’t work is when every single series is over before they even start.