Tennessee Will Beat Missouri, and Other College and NFL Game Picks

 

 

Tomorrow, for what seems like the 5^th or 6^th time this season, is another day full of a bunch of average college football games. There just aren’t a whole lot of compelling and important ones. Still, like always, I’ll be here to break things down for you. And, like always, I’ll whiff on a ton of picks tomorrow and Sunday, and follow that up by climbing out of bed every Monday morning, scratching my head, wondering how I could’ve been such an idiot. Ok, that doesn’t happen EVERY Monday. Maybe just half the time. Still, regardless of what happens from week-to-week, I'll be here every Friday, throwing every team at the wall and seeing what sticks. Plus, I think it’s important to include some comedy in pretty much everything I write. Well, with my Friday picks, the jokes are found in pretty much every prediction I make. Your welcome.

 

So, without further ado (Home team in CAPS)….

 

#19 Usc over #9 UCLA

 

This is actually a really important game in the Pac 12 South, as the winner will be in first place in the division. With a win, the Trojans would finish 7-2 in conference, eliminate the Bruins (and Arizona) from the division title race, and put immense pressure on Arizona State to win their last two games (that would be the only way the Sun Devils could win the division, as they sit at 5-2 in conference, as they beat USC on this hail mary during the season). For me, this game has less to do with USC, and more to do with UCLA. I’ve been so disappointed in the Bruins this year. They were touted by many pundits as a national title contender before the season started, but instead, they’ve been the biggest phonies in college football. How in the world are they ranked 9^th right now? They have one impressive win this season, a 62-27 beat down at Arizona State on September 25^th, and a bunch of crappy performances. They beat a bad California team by 2, needed double overtime to beat Colorado (who is winless in the Pac 12), eeked 7 point win over Memphis, and escaped with a three point victory over Texas early in the season when the Longhorns were bad. They’re the worst “top 10” team in the country, and honestly, I don’t have any real faith in them to show up and play well on Saturday night. Why would I? They’ve looked really good one time this year.

 

#8 Ole Miss over ARKANSAS

 

I just want everyone reading right now to stop what they’re doing, stand up, and give a round of applause for Arkansas, who, on Saturday, got their first SEC win since October 13^th, 2012, as they defeated LSU 17-0. Bret Bielema got his first big win since he took over as the Razorbacks head coach, and it was the greatest day in Arkansas football since former head coach John L. Smith screamed about how this was the state of Alabama program. Honestly, it's been a long time coming. They’d had some brutal, gut punch losses this season (a 7 point loss against Texas A&M, a 1 point loss to Alabama, and a 7 point loss to Mississippi State), and it was just nice to see Bielema get that big W. I think he’s a smart guy, and a good head coach. I just felt (and still do) that he and Arkansas were a weird cultural fit, and because of that, it may not end up working out.

 

Whatever happens, it won’t matter tomorrow, because Ole Miss is just a better team. My only concern for the Rebels is how they’ll look for their first game against a legitimate opponent since their best receiver, Laquon Treadwell, broke his leg on near the goal line against Auburn. Obviously, they’ll miss his play making ability on the outside, but I don’t think that will be enough to keep them from winning. They’ve got the best defense (that money can buy) and quarterback in this game, and Arkansas is 1-5 in conference for a reason. Let’s not overreact to one big win.

 

TENNESSEE over #20 Missouri

 

The Vols have outscored their opponents 115-65 since Josh Dobbs set foot on the field against Alabama. This guy and his lack of eyebrows changes everything for Tennessee, and demonstrates once again just how important the quarterback position is in the game of football. The defense is on the field less because the Vols can put together and sustain drives, the offensive line suddenly doesn’t look like it’s full of a bunch of middle schoolers and unathletic stiffs, and those read option plays suddenly work a whole lot better because the defense actually has to worry about Dobbs keeping the football. And yes, while I realize it is Kentucky, when was the last time Tennessee really put it on another SEC team for 4 quarters? 2009, Kiffin’s one year? I know I’ve been going on and on and on about how Tennessee left an East division title on the table this season, but instead of crying over it (and believe me, I’ve already done that, like multiple times), I’m going to look forward to next season, one in which I think the Vols could easily win the SEC East, and may even be the favorite coming into the year. Yeah, they’ll be on the road at Alabama, Florida, and Missouri, but they also get Georgia, South Carolina, and Arkansas at home. I could easily see them going 5-1 in those games. Why not? Georgia will have a new quarterback, South Carolina will still probably have a bad defense, Arkansas is still Arkansas, Florida will have a new head coach, and Missouri could be ok, but it’s not like Tennessee couldn’t win that game. The contest in Tuscaloosa will be the tough one, but other than that, I feel like every game on the schedule is winnable. Even Oklahoma in Knoxville isn’t an impossibility. I feel great about next season, and that’s what happens when you have the right guy playing quarterback for you.

 

In terms of the game on Saturday, I’m optimistic, even though the Vols will be without their best linebacker, and heart and soul of the defense, A.J. Johnson, who is involved in a rape investigation. It may not matter though, because Missouri has one of the worst offenses in the SEC. The Tigers average the second least yards per game in the conference, and Maty Mauk hasn’t had a great year (10 picks, 53.1 completion percentage). Tennessee is playing their best football of the season, and they’ll get their third straight SEC victory tomorrow, the first time that’s happened since 2010.

 

Other college picks

 

#23 NEBRASKA over #25 Minnesota

 

The Cornhuskers still haven’t tackled Melvin Gordon (408 yards rushing last week!), but it probably won’t matter this week, because the Golden Gophers don’t have anyone close to his caliber in the backfield.

 

#3 FLORIDA STATE over Boston College

 

The Seminoles barely escaped (for the what seems like the tenth time this season) their last true regular season test of the year last week in Miami. Boston College stinks, but if FSU struggles with them, I think the playoff selection committee should sit down, put their heads together, and boot them out of it. I, along with many others, don’t think they’re one of the best 4 teams in the country. But if they have to squeak one out against the Golden Eagles at home? Come on. It would be time for them to go.

 

#15 Arizona over #17 UTAH

 

I don’t have a great feel for this game, but ever since I started talking up the Utes, and declaring that they were pretty good, they’ve done nothing but disappoint me. So I can’t pick them. Thanks a lot guys.

 

#16 Wisconsin over IOWA

 

Melvin Gordon won’t have 408 yards rushing again, but the Badgers won’t need that to beat the Hawkeyes. Fun fact about Iowa: their head coach, Kirk Ferentz, is the ninth highest paid coach in the country, at a little more than 4 million a year. Really? Since 2010, here are his records:

 

2010: 8-5

2011: 7-6

2012: 4-8

2013: 8-5

2014: 6-3

 

If you’re an Iowa fan, do you feel great about paying a guy 4 million a year that’s gone 33-27 over the last 5 seasons? I know I wouldn’t.

 

Now, onto my NFL picks….

 

CHARGERS over Rams

SEAHAWKS over Cardinals

 

Week 12 produces two more “Win, or your season is over, and you’ve disappointed your fans greatly” games, ironically involving both of my preseason Super Bowl teams, San Diego and Seattle. Both these teams have brutal schedules remaining. San Diego follows up this week with games at Baltimore, home against New England, home against Denver, at San Francisco, and at Kansas City. Sheesh. Seattle’s isn’t any better; they’ll have games at San Fran on Thanksgiving, at Philly, home against the Niners, at Arizona, and home against St. Louis. Neither of these teams can afford to drop to 6-5. There are just so many teams they’d have to jump over if that happens, and they both have two of the toughest remaining schedules in the league.

 

St. Louis is feisty, and that worries me a little bit for the Chargers. Three of the Rams’ victories this season are over the Niners, Seahawks, and Broncos, and it’s not like San Diego has looked all that good recently. In fact, they haven’t played a great game since they shut out the Jets 31-0 in Week 5. Week 5! Still, I think they’re better than St. Louis, and they’ll find a way to win. Plus, Rivers and Antonio Gates are both past due for a big game. Why not this week?

 

Honestly, I’m more worried about Seattle. I haven’t liked anything that’s come out of their locker room this season (Russell Wilson isn’t “black” enough, this is definitely Marshawn Lynch’s last year in Seattle, Percy Harvin was a terrible teammate, and he popped Golden Tate in the face last season, etc.) Plus, Russell Wilson just looks so….. limited. For all the love he got last season, which he partially deserved, it is interesting to see how the narrative flipped on him this season. Mike Greenberg (I know, not a guy with a high football IQ, but still) said earlier in the season that he’d rather have Wilson than Andrew Luck. Now? No one would ever say that. He’s never been a guy that made a bunch of plays down the field with his arm, and now, with no weapons, it’s that much harder for him. Plus, what happened to the Legion of Boom, and where’s the great pass rush? They’ve been physically whooped so many times this season by opposing offensive lines (Dallas and Kansas City, for example), and they’ve lost that edge they had last season. Nobody is scared of them anymore (or the 12^th man), and teams are no longer afraid to throw on them. I could easily talk myself out of Seattle, though I’ll stick with them, just because I can’t imagine the defending Super Bowl Champs being all but eliminated from playoff contention in Week 12 (I still think they have some pride in that locker room). But it could easily happen.

 

PATRIOTS over Lions

 

This is one of those games that will, on Sunday, represent a truth about the NFL. We view and talk about the Patriots in a certain way because of games like this, and we view and talk about the Lions in a certain way because of games like this. Detroit has been inept for half a century because they lose games like this one, and everyone has respected New England for over a decade because they win games like this. Why should I have any faith in Matt Stafford, on the road in New England, against Brady and Belichick? Yes, I realize the Lions have the top ranked defense in the league, but they, for some reason, were only able to score 6 points, and none after halftime, last week in Arizona. I could easily see them showing up and getting blasted from the opening kickoff to the final whistle, partially because New England is playing so well right now, but also because they’re the Lions, and I don’t have any faith in them in big games. It actually kind of reminds me of last week’s Mississippi State-Bama game; The Tide are the Pats, the team that’s been consistently dominant, while Detroit is MSU, the upstart that’s been mostly irrelevant for the greater part of their history. I would’ve believed the Bulldogs would beat Alabama when I saw it, and I’ll believe the Lions can beat the Patriots when I see it.

 

BRONCOS over Dolphins

 

Every NFL fan needs to take a collective chill pill with the Broncos after last week’s embarrassing defeat in St. Louis. Granted, it was bad, and Peyton hasn’t been great in 3 weeks (6 picks). Plus, his ball looks terrible right now, as itt wobbles through the air. He doesn't have a tight spiral anymore, and he barely has any zip on his throws. They can’t run the ball, and don’t appear to be interested in trying (28 rushing yards on 10 carries last week!). Then again, I hate overreacting to a bad three game stretch by any NFL team, particularly one quarterbacked by Manning that looked awesome through its first seven games. I remember it happening a lot with New England after their first three games, and now everyone feels stupid because they haven’t lost since then. A lot of these games come down to this: do I have any faith in this coach/quarterback combo going on the road and winning a big game? Joe Philbin and Ryan Tannehill in Denver? As much as he’s impressed me this season, let’s not overreact, and act like this guy is Aaron Rodgers or anything. The Dolphins can rush the passer extremely well (they have 30 sacks, tied for fourth most in the league), but Denver could also get tight end Julius Thomas back this week (he practiced today). Every team has lulls and low points during the season. It happens. I’m always willing to side with the team and the quarterback that’s done it for years and years over the upstarts with the questionable quarterback. Plus, it’s not like Manning’s ball has looked great at any point during the season. It’s always wobbled. We just notice it more now because they’re struggling so much.

 

Other NFL picks

 

Chiefs over RAIDERS

 

Yeah, I whiffed on that one. Who would’ve thought that Oakland would beat a team that was 7-1 over their last 8 games? I certainly didn’t.

 

Browns over FALCONS

 

Atlanta sucks, and I won’t pick them to beat anyone outside the NFC South until they do it. I still can’t believe they’re a division leader after 10 games.

 

EAGLES over Titans

 

Coming off Chip Kelly’s worst loss as a head coach on any level, Philly gets the best possible medicine: Tennessee.

 

Packers over VIKINGS

 

Green Bay is the best team in the NFC right now, and Minnesota couldn’t even beat the crappy Bears last week.

 

COLTS over Jaguars

 

Do I even need to say anything about this one? It’s Jacksonville!

 

Bengals over TEXANS

 

This game is going to blow up in my face at about 1:30 on Sunday, after Andy Dalton has already thrown two picks and fumbled once. I’ll then remind myself of the “Never pick a team quarterbacked by Dalton” rule I’ve made like a zillion times, and silently shake my head. But Cincy is better on paper, and they should win.

 

BEARS over Buccaneers

 

Incredibly, Chicago won their first home game of the season last week. How is that even possible? It was Week 11! Fortunately for them, they found an easy way to get their second home win. It’s called the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

 

49ERS over Redskins

 

Apparently, RG3 was doing a lot of preparation for San Francisco this week. It won’t matter. The Niners seem to have gotten back on track recently, as they’ve won back-to-back road games. I’m still interested to see what kind of an impact Aldon Smith will have for them going forward (he had no sacks or tackles in last week’s game in New York, but he did face constant double and triple teams), but they won’t need him to be great on Sunday to beat the Redskins.

 

Cowboys over GIANTS

 

This one’s real simple; Dallas has the second best rush offense in the league (153.2 yards per game), and the G-Men have the worst rush defense.

 

BILLS over Jets

 

The only reason this game would be close is because of all the craziness that’s gone on in Western New York this week that forced this game to be moved to Detroit. But the Jets are just terrible, and I’m sure every New York fan will be happy when the Rex Ryan era comes to an end at the conclusion of the season.

 

Ravens over SAINTS

 

The home field advantage of the Superdome appears to be gone, as New Orleans has lost back-to-back home games. In fact, they’ve lost 5 indoor games this season, including at Dallas, at Atlanta, and at Detroit. But wait, I thought the Saints were great indoors? I guess not, or at least not anymore.

 

So, like always, I encourage everyone to sit back, relax, and enjoy football this weekend. You deserve it.

What In The World Is Going On With The Atlanta Braves?

I was putting the finishing touches on my “Week in Football” blog (which you can find here, in case you missed it) on Monday, when I felt a loud vibration from my phone. I quickly glanced over and noticed that it was from the Major League Baseball App, informing me that the Atlanta Braves had traded Gold Glove winning outfielder Jason Heyward to the St. Louis Cardinals for starting pitcher Shelby Miller. I was surprised, but I was also preoccupied with something else, so I quickly texted my Angry Old Man, a fellow Braves’ fan, to ask him if he’d heard the news, before going back to writing. It wasn’t until hours later that I fully began to digest exactly what that trade meant, or what I thought it meant: the Braves were cleaning house, a rebuild was on the way, and things might get to Philadelphia 76ers we-don’t-care-about-winning-level bad. Ok, maybe not that bad, but still.

 

“Rebuilding”, “bad”, and “76ers” isn’t something I’ve ever associated with the Braves. As a 21 year old, I was fortunate to miss the 1970s and ‘80s, a time that saw Atlanta go through 15 losing seasons, appear in the playoffs only one time, and have zero playoff victories. See, I was born at just the right time, when the Braves were one of the best organizations in baseball, making the playoffs every year. In 1995, when I was two years old, Atlanta won the World Series, and they subsequently appeared in the playoffs every year until 2006, when I was 13. And even when they missed the playoffs 4 straight years from ’06 to ‘09, they never completely committed to a rebuild and blew everything up, and they did almost everything they could to win each season.

 

But the trade of the J Hey Kid to St. Louis represented a shift and a different way of thinking in the Atlanta organization, as did the continuing rumors that both Evan Gattis and Justin Upton (who will forever be known as the Better Upton, to clear up any confusion with his brother, BJ, who will now be known as the Worse Upton) would be traded if the right deal came along.

 

In all honesty, once I got beyond the shock of the Heyward trade, I wasn’t completely disappointed that he was dealt. Yes, I realize he was the Braves’ best defensive outfielder, but if we were being honest with ourselves, hasn’t he been also been a disappointment? For all the hype and excitement surrounding this guy when he came up (including this resounding home run in his first big league at bat), he never developed into the power hitting, clean up, build-your-lineup-around-him type of hitter he was expected to become. He only hit 11 home runs this year, and through 681 career games, he sits at a disappointingly low 84 blasts over the fence. He’s never had a season over 100 RBIs (his high for a year was 82, in 2012), and he’s never had a year in which he batted over .300 (his high for a season was .277, his rookie year in 2010). And yes, I realize he hit in leadoff spot a lot recently for Atlanta, which hurt his power numbers, but I’d argue he was slotted there because he wasn’t consistently hitting the ball with enough power to justify sticking him in the middle of the order.



So why not deal him for someone like Miller, who had a pretty impressive rookie season in 2013 (15-9, 3.06 ERA). It’s not like the Braves couldn’t use the pitching. Don’t forget that three of their “arms of the future” a few years ago have all had multiple Tommy John surgeries. Starters Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy had their second Tommy John procedures this season, and their left handed flamethrower out of the bullpen ,Jonny Venters. just had the surgery for the THIRD time. Three times! The prospects aren’t very good for pitchers coming off their second surgery; Of the 40 pitchers who have had the surgery multiple times, 10 of them have had the procedure recently enough that they either haven’t had enough appearances to give us anything really conclusive about their careers, or they haven’t pitched at all, leaving us with just 30 subjects. And of the 30, current Royals’ reliever Jason Frasor has probably had the most success, as he’s appeared in 647 games (all in relief), and now, at age 36, is coming off a 2014 season in which saw him finish the year with a 1.53 ERA for the World Series runner ups. But Frasor had both of his Tommy John surgeries before he ever made his major league debut, and while he’s a solid MLB reliever, he’s never been a dominant, All Star-caliber pitcher. Plus, Frasor has always come out of the bullpen, and both Medlen and Beachy are starters, something Atlanta will probably need them to do if they can remain healthy. The most successful starting pitcher after two Tommy John surgeries has unquestionably been current free agent Chris Capuano. He had his second surgery in 2008, didn’t make it back until 2010, and didn’t really return to being a full time starter until 2011. However, he did start 84 games from 2011-13 (and 105 total since his return), by far the most by a guy coming off his second Tommy John procedure. But like Frasor, Capuano has never been close to being a All Star-caliber pitcher. And if you just look at the names of guys who have “come back” from the second procedure, it’s a lot of guys like Victor Zambrano, Darren Dreifort, and Steve Ontiveros. Not exactly household names. And if Atlanta ends up getting two Capuanos and one Jason Frasor (which is probably being extremely optimistic), then they’re going to need some more arms. More than likely though, two out of the three, or all three, are done. And if that’s the case, they’ll definitely need some pitching, which is way more important than batting, by the way. I don’t have to go any further than this year’s postseason to illustrate that point. The Giants had one great starting pitcher, Madison Bumgarner, who nobody could hit, while Kansas City had a three headed monster in the bullpen that made everybody swing and miss throughout the entire postseason. It made sense that they met in the World Series. Teams like the Angels, who had a bunch of legitimate bats, but not many great arms, lost in the Divisional playoffs, as did the Dodgers, who had the best lineup in the National League, but a below average bullpen and poor pitching from their ace, Clayton Kershaw.

 

Those pitching injuries, as well as Atlanta’s high number of strikeouts last season, cost them dearly in 2014. The only thing that’s happened more times in the last two years than Braves’ strikeouts is Jameis Winston’s number of incidents with police in Tallahassee. In 2014, Atlanta struck out 1,369 times, the fourth most in baseball, and in 2013, they struck out 1,384 times, the third most. In fact, since the 1990 baseball season, only one team, the 2004 Red Sox, have finished in the top five in most strikeouts and won the World Series. Interestingly enough, during that same stretch, 13 teams have won the title while finishing in the top ten in fewest strikeouts. And these K’s haven’t come accidentally, as they’ve employed a bunch of free swingers the last two seasons, including guys like Dan Uggla (211 in 184 games), the Worse Upton (324 in 267 games, and a batting average of .198! .198!), the Better Upton (332 in 303 games), and Heyward (171 in 253 games); even their “low strikeout guys”, Freddie Freeman and Chris Johnson, struck out 145 and 159 times respectively, this season. Atlanta had 4 players in the top ten in strikeouts in National League in 2014, and 3 in the top 5 in 2013. Throw in guys like Evan Gattis (97 in 108 games this year) and  it’s easy to see why Atlanta came up short in the Divisional Playoffs in 2013, and had their first losing record since 2008 this season. Granted, I’m not saying it’s a problem to have a few guys on your roster that strikeout a lot. You need some pop and power in your lineup, and guys that are capable of hitting 40 home runs in a season tend to swing and miss more often, because they’re trying to drive the ball out of the yard on more pitches. One or two of those high strikeout guys is fine. But five or six? That’s too many. Ideally, you’d want as many consistent, contact hitters in your order as possible. Putting the ball in play is so important (even if you don’t get on base), because oftentimes it gives the runners on base opportunities to move up a base, or even score. A strikeout gets you nowhere. Where are all the contact hitters in Atlanta? They don’t really have any.

 

Honestly, I don’t think they can win a World Series with this roster, the one constructed by former GM Frank Wren. It helps that they were able to get rid of Dan Uggla during the season, a guy who had the worst approach at the plate than anyone in baseball (he literally went up and just swung for the fences every single time at almost every single pitch. It probably would’ve been better for him to go up there with his eyes closed), but they’re still locked into that horrendous contract they gave the Worse Upton for THREE more seasons. The deal, originally signed after the 2012 season, was a 5 year, 75 million dollar overpayment that may have indirectly cost Wren his job. The Worse Upton has, as mentioned before, has batted .198, hit 21 home runs, had 61 RBIs, and collected 180 hits in two seasons as a Brave. Since his contract was back loaded, he’s brought home 27.1 million through the first two years of the deal, meaning he’s made:

 

• 1.29 million dollars per home run
• 444,262 dollars per RBI
• 150,555 dollars per hit

 

Just thinking about all that gave me a head injury. It’s one of the worst contracts in the history of sports, and one of the main reasons Atlanta has one playoff victory the last two years. If the Braves were going to deal anyone, I wish it would’ve been him, though there’s a better chance of the Duck Dynasty guys buying a Justin Bieber CD for their own listening pleasure than another Major League team throwing their hands up and saying, “Sure, we’d love to trade for, and pay, a .198 hitter 14.45 million in 2015, 15.45 million in 2016, and 16.45 million in 2017! Please, give him to us! WE MUST HAVE HIM!!!” So he’s probably stuck in Atlanta for the duration of that albatross of a contract. And I can’t wait to see how bad he slumps when his brother gets dealt. And “can’t wait” is definitely sarcasm, because he’s going to be abysmal, and I hate having that word associated with anyone or anything on my favorite teams. Could all of the starting pitchers in Atlanta hit for a higher average than him? I feel like it’s in play, and as bad as he’s been the last two seasons, I could believe any negative outcome for the Worse Upton next season. Could he have a season with less than 5 homers, less than 20 RBIs, and over 200 strikeouts? Sure, why not?

 

Just as a side note, I wish there were more dopey things people could gamble on. I myself hardly ever gamble on sports, but if Vegas started creating things like, “Over/under 40.5 stadium-wide boos at Turner Field for the Worse Upton this season”, I might start laying down some more cheddar. If I can bet on the number of times Verne Lundquist will chortle during a game, I should be able wager on something like that. And just for the record, I’d definitely take the over. He just needs to average a .5 boos per home game to get there. You’re going to tell me that the Worse Upton, in the middle of the season, on the seventh game of a ten game home stand, fresh off back-to-back-to-back games with 3 plus strikeouts, won’t start hearing it from the fans multiple times a game, as he goes up there and whiffs on pitch after pitch after pitch? He’s not going to get booed every night, or most nights, but there are going to be those games where his soul-crushing contract becomes a bigger and bigger middle finger to the fans, and the collective frustration in the park boils over. And no, I don’t have anything against the Worse Upton personally, and if he has a great season (heck, if he just hit .240 I wouldn’t complain) I’ll be overjoyed because he plays for my team. But how likely is that to happen?

 

I am a fan of the Better Upton, and he actually had a really nice second year in Atlanta (29 homers, 102 RBIs), though I would like to see him hit for a higher average (just .270 this season), because I know he’s capable. However, he does strike out way too much, and 7 full seasons into his career, that might just be who he is. The Better Upton has gone down swinging more than 120 times every season since his second year, and his 171 strikeouts last season were only two behind his brother’s team high 173. So he may be hurting more, or just as much, as he’s helping. Plus, his contract is up after this year, and if they’re going to be fully committed to this rebuild, I can’t see them signing him to a long term extension, which means he’s going to get traded either before the season, or during it. I’ve read in a lot of different places that the Mariners are a likely suitor for his services, and I’m sure Atlanta would get back a bunch of prospects back for the 27 year old outfielder.



And if they do end up dealing him, then expect a crappy 2015 season. It was probably going to be a rough one anyway, but losing their two best outfielders makes things that much tougher. I can’t see any way the Braves win more than 72 games with what they’d have coming back. How are they going to score any runs? They had enough trouble doing that last season, and that was with Heyward and Upton. Still, I don’t hate the young pitching staff; Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, and Shelby Miller are all 24 years old and under Atlanta’s control until at least 2018, and they still have the 27 year old Mike Minor. But none of those guys have proven to be aces of a staff, and there’s no guarantee all 4 will end up being successful, or even serviceable long term starting options. They’ve got the best closer in the game in Craig Kimbrel, and one of the best first baseman in Freeman (though he did have a disappointing 2014 season, compared to his production in 2013. He finished with 18 homers, 78 RBIs, and a .288 batting average this season, compared to 23 homers, 109 RBIs, and a .319 average in 2013), as well as one of the best defensive shortstops in Andrelton Simmons (he’s won back-to-back Gold Gloves) locked up at least through 2018. So if they ship the Better Upton, get back some quality prospects, continue to build around the young pitching staff and their young infield (centered around Simmons and Freeman’s work in the field) all while they develop some young, contact hitters who don’t strike out every other at bat to hit around Freeman’s power bat, I think they could really have something special by the time they open their new ball park in 2017. They’ll need to get better at second and third base, as well as in the outfield, particularly if both the Better Upton and Gattis both get dealt. They’ll also need to hope that Christian Bethancourt is everything at catcher that he’s been promised to be. I’ve been hearing about how good this guy was going to be for what seems like ten years now. It's time for him to go out there and do it. I’m a little confused as to why they’re meeting this week with free agent pitcher Jon Lester, just because splurging on a big name free agent seems like the last thing they’d want to do right now, particularly when they just dealt Heyward. But I wouldn’t be completely opposed to the signing, and that trade did open up about 10 million dollars of salary. It just wouldn’t make all that much sense with what I thought they were doing.

 

Regardless of what happens with Lester, I do have faith in new President of Baseball Operations John Hart, the same guy that ran the Cleveland Indians in the ‘90s when they went to two World Series in three years. I just hope they do things that make sense, and that each and every decision helps to ultimately push them in a positive direction. It’s really easy to become the Kansas City Royals from 1986-2013, or the Pittsburgh Pirates from 1993-2012. Those once proud franchises wandered in the wilderness for two decades because of botched signings, inept ownership, clowns in the front office, and cheap, corner-cutting moves from those in leadership positions. Eventually though, they got the right guys in those spots, and they figured out how to build a winning organization. I don’t want to root for, or follow, a completely clueless organization for the next twenty years of my life. I don’t want my future kids to have to lie to me about being Braves fans, because they actually secretly don’t want to root for a team that sucks. They can’t screw this up. Be smart. And then, once the rebuild is over, go win the World Series. It's been almost twenty years since their last title. Nothing would make me happier.  

The Week in Football: The Florida Job is Now Open, and New England and Green Bay are the NFL's Elite

On Sunday morning, the brutal, torturing, “oh my gosh, we suck!” Will Muschamp era at Florida mercifully came to an end, as it was announced that he’d step down at the end of the year. At least that’s what you’d think if you were a Gator fan; I was actually disappointed when I heard the news. Florida has been laughably bad on offense in Muschamp’s four years, and things weren’t going to get any better (Muschamp knows as much about offense as Screamin’ A. Smith knows about speaking at an appropriate volume). Just selfishly as a Vol fan, I love when Florida can’t score, find the right quarterback, or recruit any speedy skill position guys; basically, it’s awesome when they remind everyone of what the offense on the worst pee wee football team in the country looks like. Then again, Muschamp did beat Tennessee all four years, so I just want to take this time to thank Derek Dooley, Nathan Peterman, the grass in Gainesville that tore Justin Hunter’s ACL, and yes, Butch Jones (he defiantly stuck by Nathan Peterman for an entire half in 2013 even though he was the worst quarterback in the history of the program!) for allowing the Muschamp-led Gators to go 4-0 against you.

So where does Florida go from here? Obviously, it’s one of the best jobs in the country. They are the premier program in one of the most fertile recruiting areas in the nation. They’re in the SEC, the fans are rabid and care about the team succeeding, and they’ve got millions of dollars to pour into the football program every year. Plenty of people are going to be interested.

Whenever there’s a big job opening, the first two things I always look for in a replacement are as follows….

1. Was this potential coach an assistant (like an offensive or defensive coordinator) at this school before?
2. Does this potential coach have any ties to the area? Did he play football at this program, or did he grow up relatively close to where the school is located?

I always feel like former assistants, local guys, or former players are almost always popular hires, because the fans are familiar with them, and the athletic department can always spin it as, “We decided to hire a Florida guy” or “This guy was here when we had a lot of success, and he knows what it takes to win big at this program, because he was here when we did it”.

So who are the big time former Florida assistant coaches? Dan Mullen and Charlie Strong are the first that come to mind. I don’t think Strong would, after just one year at Texas (also a great job), quit and take another position somewhere else. So he’s out. I think Dan Mullen would be a very good hire for the Gators, because he can recruit, he seems to have run a clean program, he has an offensive background, and he’s got MISSISSIPPI STATE at 9-1 (no small feat). The offense thing is going to be really important in all of this. Muschamp got fired BECAUSE his offense sucked; Florida, whenever they’ve been really good, is a program that's been known for having an extremely explosive and devastating offense. Steve Spurrier had the Fun N Gun, and Urban Meyer had his spread attack, spearheaded by Tim Tebow, with weapons all around him like Percy Harvin, Riley Cooper, and Aaron Hernandez, to name a few. That’s the culture down there, and Muschamp never quite fit.

But back to Mullen; I don’t think he’ll get the job for the simple fact that he and Florida AD Jeremy Foley apparently have some sort of unexplained rift between them. I have no idea what it is, but I’ve heard that a bunch of different times, and read it in multiple places. So he’s probably out as well. Plus, ESPN reported today that both he and Rich Rodriguez will not be considered for the opening. In terms of guys that played at the school, or have direct ties to the area, I don’t see any, or any that are real serious possibilities. So where do the Gators go from here?

To me, two names stand out, though they might be unrealistic; Art Briles and Bob Stoops. Briles is an offensive genius (again, really important), and he’s built Baylor from a laughingstock into one of the best programs in the country. Then again, Briles is a Texan, through and through, a guy who’s spent 99.9% of his life in Texas (he’s probably spent as many days outside the state of Texas in his life as Kim Kardashian has spent working). I can’t really see him leaving Baylor for a job outside the state. And then we come to Stoops, who should be linked to every major college job from now until he retires. He’s headed for a 9-3 season at Oklahoma, and apparently the Sooner fans are growing dissatisfied with his consistent excellence every season. I’d love it if Tennessee could hire a football coach that would go 167-42, win a national title, and win 8 conference championships in 16 years. I know, that sucks right? Plus, he has SEC ties, as he’s was Florida’s defensive coordinator from 1996-98. And yes, Stoops does have an defensive background, but it’s not like he is clueless on the offensive end. They’ve scored a bunch of points since he’s been there. He’s a smart guy, and I think he’d be able to figure it out. Plus, there’s no question he’d be a huge slam dunk hire for them with the fans. Could the growing (and confusing) frustration by the Sooner fans, in addition to the wide open SEC East, and the challenge of coaching in the nation’s best conference, at one of the best jobs in the country, convince Stoops to jump ship and go to Florida? I’d say it’s a long shot, just because you almost always hear big time coaches being linked to big time jobs, though it almost never happens (Urban Meyer to Ohio State is an exception, not the rule. Most of the time you end up hiring Brady Hoke or Charlie Strong, solid coaches at the time, but not guys who have won a national championship as a head coach).

In terms of other potential guys, I think Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State (who gave us the best coach rant ever), Gary Patterson, and Hugh Freeze could all be possibilities. Plus, why not throw in these three controversial names: Bobby Petrino, Todd Graham, and…. Lane Kiffin? Of the three, I think Graham is the most realistic, because he really hasn’t failed miserably anywhere yet, and proved he shouldn’t be a head coach at a big time program ever again (like Kiffin did at USC), and he never had his mistress on the payroll (like Petrino). He just texted his director of football operations at Pittsburgh to tell the players that he was leaving AFTER ONE YEAR, rather than having a meeting with them, which is customary, and what you would do if you actually cared about the players as men. If Foley is smart, he won’t interview any of these guys. But stranger things have happened. Regardless of what happens, it’ll be an interesting winter down in Gainesville.

Are you kidding me Auburn?

The most puzzling result of the weekend was Auburn’s absolute crazy and unexplainable collapse in Georgia. 34-7? What? Nick Marshall was surprisingly bad (11-23, 112 yards passing, 41 yards rushing), and Georgia absolutely ran over, through, and around them the entire game to the tune of 289 rushing yards in Todd Gurley’s return, though he also suffered a devastating torn ACL late in the game (hopefully this won’t ruin his NFL future). This game just confirmed everything I’d been saying about Auburn all year; they were an overrated team who got way too much credit for a road win at K-State (because the Wildcats badly outplayed them the whole night) and a home domination of LSU, who was starting a freshman quarterback for the first time on the road. Their defense is terrible, and they don’t seem to have quite the same offensive firepower they did last year (besides the LSU game, I haven’t said “Wow, those guys are just executing on a higher level than anyone else” the entire season, like I did almost every week last year). Good luck traveling to Tuscaloosa for the Iron Bowl the Saturday after Thanksgiving. Could the vaunted Auburn Tigers really go 4-4 in conference this season? It’s in play.

Why isn’t Melvin Gordon the Heisman favorite?

The Badgers’ tailback rushed for 408 yards, a new NCAA record for yards in a game, on 25 carries (that’s 16.3 yards per rush!) and 4 TDs on Saturday, bringing him to a season total of 1909 yards and 23 TDs. He has four games over 200 yards rushing this year, and had by far the most impressive single game performance of anyone this season. I know guys like Dak Prescott and Marcus Mariota have had great years, but just looking at the numbers, has anyone been better than Gordon this season? Is it because he plays for a two-loss Wisconsin team that’s in a bad conference? Is it because his team isn’t a national title contender? Should team success even matter for Heisman voting? I thought the award was supposed to honor the best player in college football each season, not a really good player on a really good team. And if it does honor the best player in college football each season, than who out there has been better than Gordon?

Tennessee DOMINATED on Saturday

I’m not going to rail about not how infuriating it is that Josh Dobbs wasn’t starting at the beginning of the season again this week, because I’ve done that enough. Sheesh. The Vols absolutely dominated Kentucky on Saturday in all facets of the game, and with their 50-16 win, the Vols have scored 95 points in back-to-back SEC games (they had 45 against South Carolina two weeks ago), their most since 2003. They now just need to win one of their final two games (home against Missouri, at Vanderbilt) to be bowl eligible. I’m fairly confident they’ll be able to make it happen, particularly with Dobbs in there. And as excited as I am about Dobbs’ emergence, and the impressive play of the team as a whole late in the year, I’ll always look back on 2014 as a lost season. The SEC East was there to be won! It was wide open! I just need to move on before I turn into my Angry Old Man and start screaming and gargling about a bunch of nothing. It’s in my genes, and I’ll have to spend my whole life fighting it off.

My 4 Team Playoff

1. Alabama. The Tide established themselves as the best team in the country with their close 25-20 victory over Mississippi State on Saturday, mostly on the back of their defense. Dak Prescott was picked off three times, and they held the high scoring Bulldog offense in check for most of the day (MSU only scored 3 points in the first half). And like last week at LSU, when ‘Bama needed a big drive from their offense, Blake Sims and that unit delivered a touchdown drive that saw Sims convert two third and long plays with his legs. He wasn’t great all day (19-31, 211 yards, 1 passing TD), but he was smart, and didn’t turn the ball over, which is pretty much what Greg McElroy and A.J. McCarron were asked to do every week when they quarterbacked the Tide. This Alabama team is reminiscent of pretty much every Alabama team since Saban arrived there; they play great defense, don’t turn the ball over, and get a few big plays a game from their quarterback or skill position guys. I expect them to defeat Auburn in Tuscaloosa in two weeks, and win the SEC title a week after that. It’s ludicrous that they weren’t in the 4 team playoff last week; I think it’s safe to say they will be this week.
2. Oregon. I wrote last week that I think this is the best Ducks’ team since the one that lost to Auburn in the BCS Title Game, and I still believe that. The committee might even rank Oregon first this week.
3. Mississippi State. The Bulldogs still belong in the four team playoff despite their loss on Saturday. They did out-gain Alabama 428 to 335, they have wins over Auburn, Texas A&M, and at LSU, and they’re 9-1 in the best conference in the country. Ole Miss was horrible at LSU when they lost their first game, and they didn’t drop out of the 4 team playoff. MSU wasn’t awful on Saturday, Alabama’s just a better team right now playing at home. Should they drop out because of that? No, of course not.
4. Florida State. I’d love to drop the ‘Noles out of my playoff, and banish them to The Shadow Realm (that’s a joke for like five of you), particularly after another crappy performance on Saturday night at Miami. But, like always, FSU miraculously found a way to gut it out, come back, and win. It’s been the same story with this team every week. I guess it shows me something about their character as a team, because they’ve won every close game they’ve been in, but is really all that impressive to have to come from behind, or struggle every week with the likes of N.C. State, Virginia, and Louisville? That’s not a rhetorical question, because it’s not. Still, they are undefeated in a power conference, and there’s no way the committee will drop them out of the playoff because of that.

I’d have Baylor 5^th, TCU 6^th, and Ohio State 7^th. I’d also like to take a moment to thank the Horned Frogs for showing us how ludicrous it was that they’d be in the playoff over Alabama. There’s no way the Crimson Tide would struggle on the road at Kansas, maybe the worst power conference team in the country, and escape with just a 4 point victory like TCU did. Nice job playoff selection committee.

Now, onto the NFL…..

Green Bay and New England are the NFL’s two best teams (right now)

I ran through the scores of all the Patriots’ games since their embarrassing loss on Monday Night to the Chiefs on September 29^th (they’ve won every game by double digits with the exception of a Thursday game against the Jets). Last night looked like almost every Pats’ game over the last month and a half, as New England opened it up in the second half and won 42-20. And it shouldn’t have even been that close, as Brady threw one of the worst interceptions I’ve ever seen him throw near the end of the first half that gave the Colts a short field. I’m actually not surprised the Patriots have played this well, as it seems like they do something like this every year. All I really care about is what happens in the playoffs with them, and I, like every year, don’t think they can win a Super Bowl with the weapons they have, and I’ll stick to that until they actually do it. So congrats on the impressive regular season, once again. We’ll see if they can put it together for a magical run in the playoffs.

Green Bay has also been really impressive since Week 3 and Aaron Rodgers’ now famous "R-E-L-A-X" (excluding that puzzling loss on Sunday night in New Orleans Week 8), as they’ve gone 6-1 since then. I love what they’re doing with Clay Matthews (he’s playing inside linebacker a lot more, which has helped their run defense so much), and Aaron Rodgers should be the NFL MVP. They jumped all over Philly yesterday, and it almost felt like that game was over before it started. Of the two teams, I actually think the Packers have a much better shot to win the Super Bowl. They’ve got better skill position players, the best pass rusher (New England has some athletes that can get after the QB, but they don’t have a Clay Matthews-type guy), and they’ve got the best quarterback in the NFL in Rodgers. Plus, how good is the NFC at the top? Arizona could finish with best record in the NFC, and they start Drew Stanton at quarterback. Do you trust Stanton in a big playoff game? I certainly don’t. The other NFC contenders all have legitimate questions; Detroit (for the last 50 years) and Dallas (since 1997) have found multiple ways over the years to come up smaller than a Christmas Elf and break their fan base’s hearts. The NFC South is terrible (has there ever been a worse division leader in the history of the NFL after 10 games than the 4-6 Falcons? They’re one of the worst 10 teams in the league, and are 0-6 against teams outside their division), and the Eagles might not be good enough at quarterback or on defense to make any real noise in the playoffs. The Seahawks seem to have lost their home field aura of invincibility, and they can’t stop the run (Jamal Charles ran all over them yesterday, as he finished with 159 yards on just 20 carries). And then there’s the Niners, who start Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde at quarterback, and just lost Patrick Willis, the best middle linebacker in football, for the rest of the season. At least right now, the Pack have to be the favorites in the NFC.

Lights out

Texans’ defensive end J.J. Watt might just be the best player in the NFL. So far this season, he has 9 sacks, 4 fumble recoveries, two forced fumbles, 1 interception, 2 receiving touchdowns, 1 interception return touchdown, and 1 fumble return touchdown. In fact, he’s scored more touchdowns this year than Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, only two definite Hall of Famers. I’m not sure there’s a more consistently dominant defensive force week in and week out than Watt. No one makes more plays on the side of the ball than him. He might have the best motor in the NFL, he never takes a play off, and it always seems like he’s around the ball. And I like how down to earth and unassuming the guy is, as he actually Googled “What do rich people buy” after signing his 100 million dollar deal with Houston. He’s the best defensive player in the league, and he’s definitely the type of guy you’d want to invest in (he’s an extremely hard worker, does what he needs to, doesn’t get in trouble off the field, etc.). But for all the great things he does, his team is 5-5. Let me ask you this: If you switched Aaron Rodgers and J.J. Watt, Tom Brady and J.J. Watt, Peyton Manning and J.J. Watt, or any other great QB and Watt, would the Texans still be 5-5? There’s no way right? They’d be at least 7-3. So as great as Watt is, I’m not sure they should feel good about 100 million for a guy that can really only effect the game in a few ways, and doesn’t directly impact what his team does on every play, like the quarterback does. The only person in sports that I’d give that amount of money to is a great QB or a superstar NBA player. Watt’s great, but he’s not worth it.

In a shocking development, my Angry Old Man wasn’t mad this week, because his favorite television show ever, the 1960’s Batman with Adam West, is finally out on DVD. He wept tears of joy as he proclaimed, “This is the happiest day of my life, even happier than the day you were born,  when I realized you were going to be a burden on my daily well-being for the next 18 years”. However, there’s no way he’ll be able to stay that happy for long. Something or somebody we’ll disappoint him over the next week (in fact, it’s probably already happened as I’m writing this sentence), and he’ll be sure to call me up and yell at me for 15 minutes before violently hanging up the phone. It is what it is. A Zebra doesn’t change its stripes.

So enjoy Monday Night Football this evening, you deserve it.

Overcoming the Butt Fumble, Plus NFL and College Game Picks

The Butt Fumble. It’s one of the most memorable, bad, iconic plays of the last decade. We’ve all seen it, and when we think of Mark Sanchez, that’s the thing that comes to our mind before anything else. And in fairness, it was a bad play. It looked terrible. It was the “Worst of the Worst” on Sportscenter for so long that they eventually retired it because they thought nothing would ever be worse than that. However, I thought that play was less about Sanchez, and more about just how far the Jets had fallen under head coach Rex Ryan, and just how inept they had become. That play sent a message, or at least it did to me, that if they were ever going to be contenders in New York, they were going to have to fire Ryan and move on to someone else. You know what’s really sad? The date of “The Butt Fumble” was November 22, 2012. You mean to tell me that Ryan is still the head coach, even two years after that organization-wide embarrassment of a play? Sheesh. If you want to know why the Jets are now one of the worst teams in the NFL, you’ve got your answer.

 

But back to Sanchez. Mark had three huge obstacles early in his Jets’ career, two self-imposed, and one completely out of his control:

 

1. He threw his name into the NFL hat too early

Sanchez only really started one full season at USC (2008), and pieces of the 2007 season while John David Booty was injured, for a total of 16 career starts. For comparison, Andrew Luck started 38 games over 3 years (but spent 4 years in college), Matt Ryan started 36 games over 3 years (but spent 4 years at Boston College), and Joe Flacco started 26 games over 2 years at Delaware (but spent 5 years in college). You know, only three of the most successful quarterbacks to come into the league since 2008. At the press conference to announce that he was going pro, in a curious and never seen before or again move, his OWN HEAD COACH Pete Carroll was unhappy that Sanchez was leaving, saying things like “He’s going against the grain with this decision” and talking about how previous Trojan quarterbacks had spent as much time as possible in the program. A lot of media pundits at the time thought Carroll was just unhappy because he was losing his starting quarterback, someone that he wouldn’t be able to easily replace. I went a different way. Carroll, by all accounts, is an extremely nice and caring guy, someone who is legitimately interested and concerned for the well-being of everyone he encounters. I think he had spent a ton of time around Sanchez, and he’d seen his habits, and was concerned that he wasn’t ready to be an NFL quarterback. Should he have expressed those concerns at the press conference? No, probably not, but the point still remains that Carroll, who had coached this guy for FOUR YEARS, thought he needed some more experience under his belt.

 

2.  The Jets traded up to get him

To acquire Sanchez, the Jets traded their own first and second round pick, as well as three players, to the Browns for the right to move up to the fifth pick of the draft. This made Jets’ fans view him as the savior, and the one the quarterback that would return them to prominence after so many whiffs at that position over the years. And when things started to sour for Sanchez and the Jets in his third year (2011), they turned on him. Never mind that he had the worst weapons in the league, and an extremely reliable defense that suddenly got a little shaky.

 

3. The Infamous GQ Spread

I don’t really feel great about showing the pictures, because it’s a bunch of pictures of a shirtless man, but I’ll go ahead and link it here if you’re interested. While I don’t necessarily think it’s a big deal that Sanchez posed for any magazine, I think it was just further ammunition for Jets’ fans, as the team started slipping in 2011, almost immediately after that issue hit newsstands. It reminded them that Sanchez wasn’t really like them; he wasn’t a true “New Yorker”, an everyday grinder like them. He was just a pretty boy from Hollywood, and they hated him because of it.

 

Honestly, I think it’s a shame that “The Butt Fumble” and some GQ pictures are the defining moments of Mark Sanchez’s career to most people. Granted, he never lit it up in New York, and in many ways, he failed there. I don’t think he got any better at the quarterback position from 2009-2012 (his last year with the Jets), and in many ways, I’d say he regressed. Then again, the Jets never really put any solid, consistent weapons around him, and he introduced Rex Ryan as his head coach for the first four years of his career. I think he just got warn down by all the beatings, both from opposing teams and the media, that football probably stopped becoming fun for him, and maybe he didn’t put in as much time as he should have. But it wasn’t like his entire time with in New York was just “The Butt Fumble”. Let’s not forget that he won four road playoff games in his first two NFL seasons (which tied him for the second most in NFL history), and that he appeared in back-to-back AFC Championship Games. And as mediocre as his regular season stats are (68 TDs, 69 picks, 55.06 completion percentage), his postseason stats are actually pretty impressive (9 TDs, 3 picks, 60.5 completion percentage). And two of those road playoff victories were in Indianapolis and New England, against Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, only the two of the best quarterbacks of all time.

 

I don’t think Sanchez is a great quarterback, and I don’t think he’s even close to being one of the most naturally talented quarterbacks in the NFL. He doesn’t have an extremely strong arm, and he doesn’t move all that well outside the pocket. But if you put him in the right system, with the right head coach, I think he can be extremely successful. In Sanchez’s lone season starting at USC (2008), the Trojans played one of the toughest schedules in the last 15 years, as every single one of their games was against a team from a BCS conference. Sanchez and the Trojans beat all of them, except for a still confusing loss at Oregon State on a Thursday night. But that was still a really good team, and Sanchez was surrounded by pretty good talent on both sides of the ball. There was never a time where he could say that during his Jets’ tenure. You couldn’t even say that he had competent offensive personnel around him in New York.

 

I have no idea how long Nick Foles will be out in Philadelphia, but even if it’s for the rest of the season, I think the Eagles will be fine. They’ve been able to score points almost at will with Sanchez playing (just like they did with Foles), and they have a ton of talent at the skill positions, a pretty good defense (even with the loss of linebacker DeMeco Ryans), and one of the best coaches in the NFL, the offensive genius Chip Kelly. For the first time in his NFL career, Sanchez is in a stable environment, with the right head coach and the right front office. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m buying some stock in Mark Sanchez.

 

-

 

Now, onto my Week 11 NFL picks (Home Team in Caps)……

 

SAINTS over Bengals

 

Cincinnati is crumbling. I have no faith in them to travel to New Orleans and escape with a victory. The Saints haven’t lost consecutive home games since 2009, and the Bengals defense is ranked 31^st in the league since their bye week. Plus, this is a huge game for Cincy, as they try to stay alive in one of the toughest divisions in football. When has Andy Dalton ever played well in a big game? He’s lost three straight playoff games, and his most recent showing in a big game, last Thursday against Cleveland, he finished the game 10-33 for 86 yards and three picks, before he was finally pulled. That’s Rex Grossman/Jamarcus Russell-level ineptness. I wonder how the Bengals feel about that six year, 115 million dollar deal they just gave Dalton now.

 

CARDINALS over Lions

 

I badly wanted to pick the Lions to win this game because of the Drew Stanton factor, but I decided to stick with the Cards. Arizona is undefeated at home this season, and their defense turns into the ’85 Bears in the 4^th quarter. I have no idea what gets into these guys during that period, but they’ve forced 12 turnovers in that quarter this season, good for a turnover margin of plus 11. After Carson Palmer tore his ACL last week, that defense started mauling the Rams, and had two defensive touchdowns, including a miracle pick six by Patrick Peterson. Detroit’s defense has been ferocious all season as well, and I could easily see this contest being an old fashioned, gut it out, 10-7 or 13-10 type of game. I’ll give the Cards the edge because they’re at home.

 

PACKERS over Eagles

 

Green Bay has played extremely well over the last few weeks, with the exception of that puzzling performance in New Orleans. They still aren’t great defensively (and probably never will be), but I liked how they moved Clay Matthews around last week. He started playing inside linebacker, and then would rotate to the outside from time to time. He did a great job in run support, and as always, did a great job of getting pressure on the QB when he was rushing from the edge. It gave that defense a different feel, and I hope the Pack continue to let him play like that. And while I expect Mark Sanchez to play well, Aaron Rodgers is playing so well that he should probably be the NFL MVP (25 TDs, 3 picks, 2407 yards), and they’re at home, playing in cold temperatures (there is a high on Sunday of 31 degrees, and a low of 15 degrees), with 13 mile and hour winds. The Packers will win.

 

Patriots over COLTS

 

The dirty little secret of Indy’s season is that their wins haven’t really been all that impressive, especially when you compare it to their losses.

 

Indianapolis wins:

At Jacksonville, home against Tennessee, home against Baltimore, at Houston, home against Cincinnati, at the Giants

 

Indianapolis losses:

At Denver, home against Philadelphia, at Pittsburgh

 

Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston, and the Giants are all not playoff teams, Cincinnati is struggling to keep its head above water, and Baltimore hasn’t beaten a quality team either besides Pittsburgh in Week 2.

 

Meanwhile, New England has been extremely impressive since their embarrassing loss to Kansas City on Monday Night Football (except for the Thursday Night Game against the Jets)

 

New England wins since Kansas City:

 

New England 43, Cincinnati 17

New England 37, Buffalo 22

New England 27, New York Jets 25

New England 51, Chicago 23

New England 43, Denver 21

 

As you can see, they’ve been blowing everyone out just about every week. The Pats are also 10-4 off their bye week under Belichick, something they have the benefit of this week. New England is playing better than anyone right now, and I expect that to continue on Sunday night.

 

Other NFL Picks

 

DOLPHINS over Bills

 

I swear I had Miami over Buffalo in the first true playoff elimination game of the NFL season. I’m sorry Buffalo, it’s been a nice run, but it’s over now. Good luck digging your way out of a 5-5 hole. Like always, never trust a team that starts Kyle Orton at quarterback.

 

BROWNS over Texans

 

Falcons over PANTHERS

 

The “How the BLEEP are we still alive for a playoff spot, despite the fact that we actually suck?” bowl. Congratulations, NFC South.

 

Vikings over BEARS

 

Jared Allen told the Chicago media this week that the Bears aren’t out of it yet. I’m sorry, but did you watch what happened to you guys on Sunday night?

 

Broncos over RAMS

 

Seahawks over CHIEFS

 

49ers over GIANTS

 

The G-Men, at some point last week, decided they didn’t want to tackle Marshawn Lynch anymore (he had 4 rushing TDs). There only hope on Sunday is often ignored rule that it’s extremely hard for a team from the West Coast to play well in a game at 1 o’clock Eastern time, but I'm not even sure that will save them.

 

REDSKINS over Buccaneers

 

CHARGERS over Raiders

 

If San Diego loses this week to the hapless Raiders, then it is over for my AFC Super Bowl team. They can’t lose to Oakland can they? CAN THEY?

 

Steelers over TITANS

 

College Football

 

No, I haven’t forgot about the college game. It is disappointing that this week doesn’t quite have the same sense of importance that last week did. There were SIX legitimately huge games last week, and it was a great Saturday. At least Tennessee is back on the schedule again. Speaking of the Vols…..

 

TENNESSEE over Kentucky

 

A few weeks ago, I was really worried about this game, until Butch Jones finally decided it was a good idea to stop trotting out Nathan Peterman, and instead send out the best quarterback on scholarship, Josh Dobbs. Plus, the Wildcats actually started playing like the Kentucky team we all know and love, not the one that was competing in almost every game. They got beat down 41-3 by LSU, and didn’t show up until the second quarter (when it was too late) last week against Georgia. Dobbs changes everything for that offense and for that team, and I don’t expect that to be any different this week.

 

#20 WISCONSIN over #16 Nebraska

The most important game early in the history of the Big 10 West, as the winner would have the inside track at advancing to the Big 10 Championship Game. Minnesota is also a “contender” in that division, but they travel to both Wisconsin and Nebraska in their last two games, and they also have an extremely tough game this week in Minneapolis against Ohio State. Good luck. I don’t really have a solid reason for picking Wisconsin other than that I just haven’t been all that impressed with Nebraska this year. Granted, Wisconsin hasn’t been world beaters this season either, but they are at home, in one of the best home field advantages in the country, Camp Randall. Plus, the visiting team’s locker room, which used to be painted pink, was eventually repainted “prison blue” because they thought that the pink color was irritating their opponents. The new color is supposed to elicit a calming response, and is the same one used in the Wisconsin prison system. I have no idea if it works or not, but since the change, the Badgers are 43-4 at home.

 

#9 Auburn over #15 GEORGIA

 

The Bulldogs get their best player, Todd Gurley, back this week, and while I’m sure he’ll make a huge impact on the field this Saturday, I’m still sticking with the Tigers. I just don’t know what Georgia team is going to show up. Two weeks ago, against Florida, they played one of the worst games I’ve ever seen a ranked team play. They then followed it up last week with a dominating performance, from start to finish, against Kentucky. I know that Auburn’s defense has more holes than Swiss Cheese, but at least Nick Marshall and that offense are always going to show up. That’s really the only thing I’m assured of from week-to-week in this matchup. Plus, I just can’t see Auburn, with as much talent they as they have, getting their 3^rd loss of the season at this point in the year. And as much grief as I’ve given Clemson for blowing games, Georgia kind of does the same thing all the time. Last year’s Auburn game is a perfect example of this, as well as this year’s South Carolina game, where the Bulldogs had a first and goal late in the game, trailing by 3, only they ended up having to settle for a field goal (because they stupidly decided it was a good idea to not hand the ball to Todd Gurley three straight times) which they missed. I could easily see something like that happening again this week, and that’s why I can’t pick Georgia.

 

#5 ALABAMA over #1 Mississippi State

 

I’m siding with the Crimson Tide, mostly because I can’t bring myself to pick Mississippi State, a program that’s done mostly nothing but produce bad football year after year my entire life, to go into Tuscaloosa and win. The Bulldogs have really impressed me this year though, as they’ve got a really good defense, a Heisman-contender in Dak Prescott at QB, and a really smart head coach in Dan Mullen. The Tide have just been such a good team at home. Their most impressive victory of the season, the 59-0 blasting of Texas A&M, happened at home, as well as their 42-21 dismantling of Florida. I think, like last week in Baton Rouge, that this game will be a physical, hard fought, slugfest. But ‘Bama, on the strength of their defense and home crowd, will find a way to squeak this one out.

 

Personally, particularly if it’s close, I don’t think Miss St should drop out of the playoff if they lose this game. They’ve still got some really good wins (at LSU, home against Auburn, home against Texas A&M). Plus, they’re in the best conference in the country, and they never blew a 21 point 4^th quarter lead (I’m looking at you TCU). If I was on the committee, and Alabama wins this game, I’d move the Tide up to number 1, keep Oregon at number 2, leave FSU at number 3, and drop MSU to number 4. Regardless of the what happens next Tuesday though, I still expect this to be the best college football game of the week.

 

Other college picks

 

#8 Ohio State over #25 MINNESOTA

 

#22 GEORGIA TECH over #19 Clemson

 

#24 TEXAS A&M over Missouri

 

#17 Lsu over ARKANSAS

 

#3 Florida State over MIAMI

 

As badly as I wanted to pick the Hurricanes, I just couldn’t. They haven’t done anything (besides beating Duke) that really impressed me this season. Unfortunately, I think the Seminoles are going undefeated, which means they’ll steal a playoff spot from someone who is way more deserving and better than them.

 

So, like always, enjoy football this weekend. You deserve it.