Earlier
this month, Tennessee head football coach Jeremy Pruitt was leaving a
post-practice press conference when he was stopped by a reporter from Brazil.
The man, who apparently had a hard time communicating with Pruitt during the
presser, apologized by saying, “I’m from Brazil. Sorry for my English.” To which
Pruitt replied, “Have you heard my English?”
Hilarious!
Killer line!
Pruitt’s
biggest success on Rocky Top thus far has been his ability to ingratiate
himself to the Vol fanbase, a group that’s been beaten down worse than every Steven Seagal adversary the last decade-plus. He sounds like someone from
Chattanooga. He doesn’t speak in platitudes. He doesn’t come off like a used
car salesman. His first name isn’t Lyle.
The
months away from football has definitely helped. Everyone’s forgotten about the
fact that the Vols got clobbered by Vanderbilt FOR THE THIRD YEAR IN A ROW. Or
that they blew a 12 point lead to a mediocre South Carolina team. Or that
Florida, Georgia and West Virginia all beat them by 26 points. Or that Alabama
has beaten them 12 years in a row. Unfortunately I haven’t. I never do. No
wonder I drink.
Instead
we as fans have gravitated towards fun, uplifting stories like, “Jarrett
Gurantano is the 21st ranked quarterback in college football according
to Pro Football Focus!” or “ESPN ranked Tennessee as the 14th best program over the first 150 years of college football” (a bit
low, in my opinion) or “Look at how much bigger the asses and thighs are on the
team this year! They’ve really been hitting the weight room!”.
Listen,
all that matters this season is whether Tennessee is going to be able to field
a competent offensive line that can actually block for the first time this
entire decade. If that happens, hell, 8-4 feels entirely doable. If not, it’s
another 5-7 season and Pruitt’s seat is hotter than the sun on his bald head at
an August practice heading into Year 3.
Some
good news in that area is that Trey Smith, the most talented and best lineman
on the entire campus, and potentially in the whole conference, has been medically
cleared from his scary blood clot issues and will play in Saturday's season opener. Of
course, he played in seven games last year and the offensive line still blocked
about as well as a wet paper bag, so it’s going to take a lot more than just
him to turn this unit into a capable one.
If
the O-Line can stay in front of people, Jarrett Guarantano has the ability to
have a really nice year. Despite getting obliterated the last two seasons by pass
rushers, Guarantano has managed to complete 62.1% of his passes in his 19 game
Vol career. He’s tough, he’s accurate, and he also benefits from being guided
by the best offensive coach he’s probably ever had, new Vol OC Jim Chaney. Chaney called the plays in 2012 for the Vols when they had one of their best offenses in
team history (UT scored 30+ points 9 times and went over 50 twice). He was also the OC at Georgia the last three years, presiding over the #1 ranked
offense in the SEC in 2017 and the #2 ranked attack in the conference last
season. He certainly can’t do worse than what Tyson Helton achieved in 2018, when he coached the Vols to… the last ranked offense in the SEC, which
is exactly where they finished in 2017.
You
could argue that Chaney benefits from his move to Knoxville more than anyone.
He gets to go from looking like the Redneck Kool Aid man on Fall Saturdays to
James’s Giant Peach after it’s been pulled off the Empire State Building.
What’s that? That’s not an improvement? Eh…. Maybe not.
Outside
of quarterback, the Vols return 9 other starters on offense. Again, this group
helped Tennessee finish last in total offense in the SEC the prior two seasons, but
hell, if you’re optimistic, there’s certainly not a more experienced offense in the whole
conference than this team! Wide receiver Jauan Jennings is somehow just now a senior, and Ty
Chandler and Tim Jordan showed flashes of being competent SEC running backs
last year, despite, again, being blocked for by a group of wet paper bags.
On
the defensive side of the ball, the Vols got an enormous boost this week when
Michigan transfer Aubrey Solomon’s waiver was finally approved by the NCAA. Solomon
should bolster a defensive line that will be without arguably their best player
in that unit, Emmitt Gooden, due to a torn ACL. It’s too bad Solomon can’t play
in the secondary as well, because Freshman All-American corner Bryce Thompson
was arrested for domestic assault over the weekend and got himself indefinitely
suspended. If he ends up getting booted from the program (and there’s an
argument that he should), then that leaves a pretty big void in the defensive
backfield that won’t be easily filled, if at all, or at least not competently.
Nigel Warrior returns with a great name and… that’s about it. Let me know when
that guy makes a big play. Or hell, makes any play that isn’t a penalty or
losing his man in coverage. Rooting for you, but sheesh.
Darrell
Taylor and Daniel Bituli return at linebacker, though Bituli, the team’s
leading tackler the last two seasons, will be out potentially for a couple
weeks after undergoing knee surgery. Freshman Quavaris Crouch will get a ton of
snaps at that position this season, and while everyone seems to be high on him,
he’s a completely unproven player at this point who will probably go through
the typical SEC growing pains.
The
schedule breaks their way a bit this season. Their first three games are all at
home against inferior opponents (Georgia State, BYU, Chattanooga). The only
potential threat here is BYU, who returns 14 starters from last year’s 7-6
campaign.
Then
there’s at Florida on September 21. The good news is that the Gators looked
pretty pedestrian this weekend against a very mediocre Miami team. The bad news is that Gainesville has been a house of horrors for the
Vols; Tennessee hasn’t won their since 2003, and has only left victorious three
times since 1971. I wouldn’t bet on a fourth.
After
the bye week, the Vols host #3 Georgia. Considering the ‘Dawgs have outscored Tennessee
79-12 the last two years, this feels like another loss.
Mississippi
State comes to Knoxville the next weekend. The Bulldogs return just 11 starters
and have to replace star quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, who they lost to
graduation. This is a potential fork in the road game for Pruitt’s future and
the Vol season at large. Win this game and a bowl berth is almost guaranteed. A
mark of a good program, or one going in the right direction, is taking care of
your home field against equal or lesser opponents. Nick Saban and Alabama have
lost four home games since 2008, and none since 2015. Kirby Smart and Georgia
are undefeated at home the last two years. Dabo Swinney and Clemson haven’t
lost a home game since 2016. I could go on and on.
October
19th is at Alabama. Gulp. You know what though, at least be competitive.
In 2015, when everyone was still unsure of whether or not Butch Jones was
capable, the Vols went into Tuscaloosa against the eventual national champions
and only lost 19-14. They had a lead in the fourth quarter! I know, I can’t
believe that’s real either.
October
26th is home against South Carolina. How the hell is Will Muschamp
7-0 against Tennessee? That’s the most inexplicable Vol football stat of all
time, and frankly, I could discard all of the bad Tennessee numbers and you’d
still be able to get a clear picture of how inept things have been on Rocky Top
this decade just by hearing that. This one is just like the Mississippi State
game; take care of business against the equal or slightly lesser opponent.
If
everything plays out the way I think it will, Tennessee will head into the month
of November with a 5-3 record, with UAB, at Kentucky, at Missouri, and home for
Vanderbilt left. Honestly, which of those opponents terrify you? UAB doesn’t
have comparable athletes, and the Vols beat a better Kentucky team last season
than what the Wildcats will trot out this year. Missouri will probably be
tough, particularly with quarterback Kelly Bryant transferring in from Clemson,
but I don’t think it’s IMPOSSIBLE for them to win, probably just unlikely. And
then there’s Vanderbilt, who has somehow outscored the Vols 125-71 the last
three years on their way to their first three game winning streak over
Tennessee since they won six in a row from 1920-1926. I don’t think you can be
a successful Tennessee football coach if you start your tenure out 0-2 against
Vanderbilt. Honestly, you should probably just be fired on the spot. I’m betting
that won’t happen. It can’t. Right?
Assuming
the season plays out this way, the Vols are 8-4 and on their way to a bowl game
for the first time since 2016, with a chance to win that ever important ninth
game. Remember this, and remember it well, because I’m going to be saying this
all season: since the institution of the SEC Championship Game in 1992, every
coach that has gone on to win the conference won at least 9 games by their
second year. There’s 25 years of evidence that if a coach is going to work out
big time at his new program, he gets it turned around relatively quickly. The
clock is ticking. The Vol fanbase is willing to be patient, but you’ve got to
give us something. Some hope. Some reason to believe you’re the guy. Losing to
Muschamp or Vanderbilt again can’t happen. Let’s be competitive this season! As
painful as it was to lose to the Tide in 2015, the taste of the almost victory
and what it could’ve meant is significantly better than losing to every big
time opponent by four touchdowns every week. Because at least I can convince
myself that the Vols are close to getting over that hump and restoring
themselves to the once proud program they were, one that was capable of
competing for National Championships and winning SEC Titles.
Now,
onto the Week 1 picks….
Thursday
Georgia
Tech at #1 Clemson
The
first ever game on the ACC Network pits the defending champion Tigers at home
against a Georgia Tech team that is transitioning from 11 straight years of
running the triple option of former coach Paul Johnson to a more pro-style
approach that new head coach Geoff Collins and OC Dave Patenaude want to
implement. The Yellow Jackets didn’t have a single tight end on the roster when
Collins got the job back in December. I can’t think of any reason why Clemson won’t win 70-0.
The
Tigers are replacing all four starters on their defensive line from last year,
but honestly, with as easy as their schedule is, that won’t be a potential
problem until whoever they face in the playoff semifinals on December 28th.
Clemson only plays two teams ranked in the preseason Top 25, and they’ll do
that the next two weeks as they welcome Texas A&M into Death Valley on
September 7th and then travel to Syracuse on September 14th,
the site of their last ACC loss two years ago. Assuming they win both of those,
the next nine are all either cupcakes (Wofford, Charlotte), vastly overmatched
(Wake Forest, Louisville, N.C. State, Boston College), coached by a 68 year old
man in his first season (North Carolina and Mack Brown), an in state rival they
haven’t lost to since 2013 (South Carolina), or a once proud program with
assuredly the wrong coach (Florida State and Willie Taggart). They’ll roll over
whoever they play in the ACC Championship Game too.
Prediction:
Clemson
UCLA
at Cincinnati
The
Bearcats spoiled Chip Kelly’s debut in Los Angeles last season by winning
26-17. In hindsight, that probably should have been a bad omen for the Bruins’
season, as they finished 3-9 and lost five games by double digits. The shine is
certainly off ole Chip at this point; in his last three seasons as a head coach
with the Eagles, 49ers, and UCLA, he’s a combined 11-32 with 20 losses by
double digits. Sheesh. We’re supposed to be optimistic because starting
quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is in his second year in Chip’s system?
Has he proven that he’s capable of being spectacular in it? Sure, the Bruins
averaged 31 points and 475 yards of offense in their last four games at the end of the 2018 season, which would be encouraging if three of those four weren’t started at
quarterback by Wilton Speight. UCLA has too many questions at this point for me
to take them seriously, particularly in a game where they have to travel all the
way across the country.
Prediction:
Cincinnati
#14
Utah at BYU
Vol
fans, assuming they stay up for the 10:15 kick, will get an early look at what
BYU has as they take on their instate rivals. The Utes are the favorites in the
Pac 12 South thanks to 15 returning starters, including all four on the
defensive line, a unit that helped Utah finish number 1 in the
conference in run defense last season. The Cougars blew a 20 point third
quarter lead in this matchup last year and have lost 8 straight times to the
Utes. It’s going to be nine times in a row.
Prediction:
Utah
Friday
#19
Wisconsin at South Florida
Jack
Coan will start the season at quarterback for the Badgers, replacing Alex
Hornibrook, who transferred to Florida State in the spring. Of course, if we’re
being honest, that’s not a huge loss, considering Hornibrook completed less
than 60% of his passes last year and tossed almost as many interceptions, 11, as
he did TDs, 13. Coan started the last four games in 2018 for the Badgers,
including their bowl game, and was slightly better (60.2% completions, 5 TDs, 3
picks). If things don’t work out with Coan this season, expect to see highly
touted freshman Graham Mertz under center at some point.
Meanwhile,
South Florida returns 16 starters (9 offensive, 7 defense) from last year’s
team that, after a 7-0 start, lost their last six, including a lackluster bowl
performance AT HOME against Marshall where they were defeated by 18. Former Arizona State
and Alabama transfer Blake Barnett is firmly entrenched as the quarterback, and
he was… okay last year? 61.1% completions, 12 TDs, 11 interceptions were the numbers he put up.
USF’s
best chance is if Wisconsin struggles with the heat and humidity, which will
both be in the low 80s at kickoff. Otherwise, I think the Badgers win by double
digits.
Prediction:
Wisconsin
Oklahoma
State at Oregon State
The
Beavers are 14-46 over the last five seasons, including a paltry 2-10 last season
in head coach Jonathan Smith’s first year in charge of the program. Meanwhile,
Oklahoma State is 44-21 over that same stretch, with three ten win seasons and
five bowl appearances. However, the Cowboys went just 7-6 last year and surrendered
30+ points in nine of their 13 games.
Ok
State coach Mike Gundy and his fantastic mullet haven’t named a starter at
quarterback yet, and we won’t know who it will be between Hawaii grad transfer
Dru Brown and redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders until kickoff. In fact, both of
them will probably play on Friday night.
Elsewhere,
the Cowboys return 14 starters, including First Team All-American wideout Tylan
Wallace, who finished second in the country with 1,491 receiving yards. The
defensive line replaces their top 6 contributors from last season. Again, this
was a really awful defense last season, but this group did help the Cowboys finish
10th nationally in sacks per game with 3.0, and was the strength of
an otherwise matador defense.
The
Cowboys should be like they always are, a team that puts up a ton of points and
gives almost as many. That won’t matter tomorrow night because Oregon State
might be the worst program in all of the Power 5, but until they figure out the
defense, this program feels like it’s peaked.
Prediction:
Oklahoma State
Saturday
FAU
at #5 Ohio State
The
fighting Lane Kiffin’s, fresh off a 5-7 season in 2018, travel to Columbus to
face a Buckeye team that replaces both it’s starting quarterback and head coach.
This is a big job for 40 year old Ryan Day, who was only the sole player caller
with Ohio State for one season before getting promoted to the head job when Urban
Meyer stepped away.
The
Buckeyes should blow through FAU with little issue on Saturday, but this will
be a tough first year for Day, who returns just four starters from last year’s 13-1 team. Georgia transfer Justin
Fields, whose most famous college moment thus far was being involved in the
worst fake punt in the history of the sport, will be the
starting quarterback.
Fields was granted an immediate waiver to transfer to OSU,
thanks in large part to the fact that a UGA baseball player used a racial slur
towards him during Georgia’s football victory over Tennessee last season.
Listen, I don’t have a problem with guys transferring, but let’s be honest
about this, Fields is leaving because he got to Athens and realized he was
going to sit behind Jake Fromm for the next two years. The slur is just an
excuse. Should people being using slurs towards each other? Of course not. But let’s
not act like Fields’s “health, safety, and well-being” (the NCAA’s standard for
granting immediate eligibility for transfers) were in jeopardy on the UGA
campus. He’s a five star recruit in a football mad state. He was a celebrity
the moment he stepped foot into Athens. Plus, the school dismissed the baseball
who uttered it towards him. Come on Justin. Drop the act.
The
lack of Buckeye experience and the young, new head coach all lead to this: it’s
now or never for Jim Harbaugh and Michigan. If they can’t beat OSU, win the Big
Ten, and seriously compete for a playoff spot, then Ann Arbor might burn to the
ground. The Wolverine offense returns quarterback Shea Patterson in his second
year in Harbaugh's system, their top two receivers from last season, and the bulk of
their offensive line. The defense isn’t quite as loaded as it was last year,
but there’s enough coming back for it to be a formidable unit in 2019. Harbaugh
is handling all this pressure perfectly, of course; just last week he was
talking about the SEC “cheaters”
that were making his job harder. Yes Jim, I’m sure that perfectly explains why you’ve
struggled with the non-cheaters in the Big Ten the last four years.
Duke
vs #2 Alabama (in Atlanta)
The
Tide opened up as 32.5 point favorites for this matchup, facing an overmatched Blue
Devil team that will be replacing its starting quarterback Daniel Jones, who
was selected in the first round of the NFL draft. Saban has been money in these
opening neutral site games, winning every one of them by double digits since he
arrived in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama’s
biggest problem heading into the season, outside of the smackdown Clemson laid
on them in the National Championship Game in January, is that they’ve already
lost two starting linebackers, Joshua McMillon and Butkus Award finalist Dylan
Moses, to season ending injuries during fall camp. Sure, the Tide are loaded
with four and five start talent, so they are probably better equipped to handle
injuries than any team in the country, but it’s not like those losses don’t
matter either.
I
don’t want to be the person predicting the end of the Saban dynasty, but 2019
definitely feels like a big year for him and the Tide. I’m sure they’ll still
win the SEC again, but the sport belongs to Clemson now; the Tigers have beat
them two of the last three times, and the four touchdown smackdown they laid on
them in the championship game was Saban’s worst defeat in five years. I think
Tua is fantastic and has been overly criticized for the first bad game of his
college career against a Clemson team that was loaded with NFL talent, but
unless something changes, the Tigers have unequivocally the better quarterback
in Trevor Lawrence. The rosters are at least comparable, and the ACC is so hollowed
out at this point that Clemson will go months without being challenged, meaning
they’ll be by far the fresher team when the two play each other again in the championship
game again in January. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not shedding a tear for the
potential death of the Saban-‘Bama dynasty. As a Tennessee fan, it’s about damn
time. Hell, I celebrate that. But if Clemson kicks their ass again, then we’ll
know definitively who the new king of college football is. (Going to be honest,
I never thought we’d be saying that about someone named “Dabo”. Dabo sounds like
the name of guy who does oil changes in a rundown auto shop in Mulaga, Alabama.)
South
Carolina vs North Carolina (in Charlotte)
68
year old Mack Brown returns to North Carolina, the place he coached from
1988-1997, hoping to turn around a program that’s gone 5-18 the last two
seasons. I’ve never typed a nice thing about South Carolina coach Will Muschamp,
but he does have a three year starter at quarterback in Jake Bentley and seven
returning starters on defense.
I
can’t imagine I’d want to turn the future of my program over to a 68 year old
man, especially if my ambitions were to eventually compete for a conference
championship. It’s going to take… three years to dig UNC out of the hole they’ve
plummeted into? By that point Brown will be 71, and this is assuming that he can
actually pull the turn around off. Don’t forget that Brown didn’t win ten games
in any of his last four seasons at Texas, and hasn’t coached anywhere since 2013. I don’t
expect his tenure to be anything except three straight losing seasons and a final
retirement after that.
Prediction:
South Carolina
Northwestern
at #25 Stanford
The
Wildcats travel to Palo Alto to face a Cardinal team with a senior quarterback,
KJ Costello, who will probably be in the NFL next year. Northwestern returns
just 12 starters from last year’s team that went 8-1 in the Big Ten. I don’t
think either of these teams will be in the hunt for their conference title in
November, but I’ll give the Cardinal the edge here because the Wildcats are flying
across the country for this one.
Prediction:
Stanford
Boise
State vs Florida State (in Jacksonville)
The
Broncos have won 10+ games four of the last five seasons as they travel about
as far as possible as someone can in the U.S. to face FSU in what is a virtual road game.
Meanwhile, the Seminoles in 2018, under first year head coach Willie Taggart, had their
first losing season since 1976. FSU returns 17 starters from last year’s
team but must replace quarterback Deondre Francois after he was kicked off the
team. James Blackman takes over as the starter, though he has played to mixed
results thus far; 59.2% completions, 24 TDs, 12 picks in 15 career games.
If
Taggart is going to work at FSU (and let’s be honest, there’s no way in hell he
will), then he needs to pop this year with a relatively experienced team in
what should be an abominable ACC. If the ‘Noles win on Saturday, they shouldn’t lose until they travel to
Clemson on October 12th. Syracuse is their second most difficult
conference game, but the Orange do come to Tallahassee. Miami also comes to them, but honestly, was anyone impressed by what the ‘Canes did last weekend? I certainly
wasn’t. They also get Florida on the road in the last week of the season, but
again, were you impressed with the Gators this weekend? I guess you would be if
you loved Feleipe Franks talking smack to the camera only to immediately follow
it up with a potential game losing interception.
FSU
should win Saturday, and with that schedule, they should be on their way to nine
or ten wins, but when you’ve got a middle school tight ends coach like Taggart
in charge of your program…. Well… good luck!
Prediction:
FSU
#3
Georgia at Vanderbilt
The
‘Dawgs are loaded and the odds on favorites to win the SEC East for the third
straight year, and deservedly so. Their “showdown” with Vandy will be over the
second they get off the bus in Nashville.
It’s
not “now or never” this season for Kirby Smart and UGA, because they’ve already
won the SEC and made the playoff, but with Alabama’s injuries, the SEC pedestal
is definitely up for grabs. Georgia could very easily be 2-0 against ‘Bama the
last two years but are winless instead due to coaching malfeasance/Tide backup
quarterback brilliance. But it’s not like there’s a mile long gap between these
two programs. Beat Alabama, win the SEC, and make the playoff, and all of the
sudden Georgia is positioned fairly well to start becoming “the program” in
this football mad league. Fail again, particularly spectacularly, and all of
the sudden it’s Mark Richt’s UGA program all over again (and as a Tennessee
fan, hell, that’s not the worst thing in the world. Can that please happen
again?).
Prediction:
Georgia
#11
Oregon vs #16 Auburn (in Dallas)
The
game of the weekend is the only one that pits two ranked teams against each
other. I can’t for the life of me figure out why Auburn is the favorite here;
they’re taking a true freshman quarterback, Bo Nix, into an enormous stadium, in
a primetime, national TV game, against Oregon’s Justin Herbert, the potential number
1 pick in next April’s NFL draft. The quarterback matchup alone swings this one
towards the Ducks.
This
is also huge game for Auburn’s head coach Gus Malzahn, who is another mediocre
year away from… not getting fired because his buyout is a preposterous $26.6
million. There’s not a coach in the history of the sport who has gotten paid
more for beating his arch rival (Alabama) twice than Malzahn. Take out his 2013
and 2017 seasons and Gus is a paltry 14-18 in the SEC. The entire trajectory of
Malzahn’s Auburn tenure flipped when the Kick Six happened. Without that, he
finishes 2016 with no victories over Alabama in four tries with an increasingly lackluster
program and gets fired. Instead, that play happens, and it leads to him getting
a dumb contract from a dumb administration.
Prediction:
Oregon
Sunday
Houston
at #4 Oklahoma
The
Dana Holgorsen era starts at Houston with a journey north to Norman. Meanwhile,
the Sooners are on their third quarterback in three seasons in Alabama transfer
Jalen Hurts. The good news is that their last two, Baker Mayfield and Kyler
Murray, both won the Heisman Trophy, and guided their teams to Big 12 Championships
and berths in the College Football Playoff. OU returns just one offensive
starter from last season, but that’s not as much of a concern as it normally
would be considering head coach Lincoln Riley is perhaps the best offensive
mind in the sport, and has helped propel the Sooners to the top ranked attack in
all of college football the last two seasons. OU’s problems have been on the
other side of the ball, where their defense has ranked near the bottom of FBS
in almost every category the last two years. Honestly, the lack of competency
on that side is probably why they’ve been one and done in the playoffs in both 2017
and 2018. Alex Grinch was brought in from Ohio State to fix the defense, but
this will probably be more than a one year rebuilding process.
This
game could be fun and high scoring, particularly if Holgorsen’s West Virginia
offense shows up with him from Morgantown. Maybe both teams get into the 30s?
40s? Regardless, the Sooners will win.
Prediction:
Oklahoma
Monday
#9
Notre Dame at Louisville
Scott
Satterfield is the new head coach at Louisville, replacing Bobby Petrino.
Satterfield, who was previously at Appalachian State, where he went 51-24 over
six years and won the last three Sun Belt conference championships. Satterfield
might be a success with the Cardinals eventually, but this is a pretty tough opener
for him, facing down the ninth ranked Irish with their returning quarterback
Ian Book.
The
Notre Dame schedule isn’t a gauntlet, outside of their visit to Georgia on September
21. Their five ACC opponents are Louisville, Virginia, Duke, Virginia Tech, and
Boston College; not exactly the football equivalent of the ’27 Yankees here.
USC comes to them, maybe with a new head coach if Clay Helton gets fired by
then. The Stanford game is on the road, but they have more talent on paper than
the Cardinal. Assuming they lose to Georgia, there’s no reason they couldn’t go
11-1 or 10-2 with this schedule and keep themselves in the playoff discussion
for most of the season.
Enjoy
college football this weekend. Thank God it’s back!
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