Week 17 of the NFL season is finally upon us, and though
there won’t be the inevitable Cowboys’ intra-division choke job in this final
weekend like there has been the last three years, there is still enough on the
schedule to get me excited. However, we’re also firmly in the middle of bowl
season, and I have this strange sense of responsibility to everyone reading
this to pick each and every one of those games, regardless if they matter or not. But, instead of forcing all of my
remaining predictions into this week’s picks, I decided to just pick the games
through the 30th. I’ll be back early next week with my picks for all the remaining bowl games, including the New Years Six, and the College
Football Playoff, early next week.
So, without further ado, here are my bowl game picks through December 30th….
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman
I’m not saying Cincinnati
is great, but have you seen the Hokies this year? They’re 4-6 since their
improbable victory over Ohio State Wake
Forest
Is Va. Tech done being an elite program under Frank Beamer?
He deserves a lot of respect and admiration for basically building that program
from nothing into a player at the national level, but here are their records
the last three seasons:
2012: 7-6
2013: 8-5
2014: 6-6
That’s a less than impressive 21-17. This program, once known for
“Beamer Ball”, (great defense and special teams, and big plays in
both of those facets of the game) doesn’t seem to make enormous, game-altering
plays in those areas anymore. The offense has been terrible, and they don’t
look anywhere near as well coached as they were five years ago.
Beamer is 68 years old. It’s hard to keep on grinding the way
you did when you were a younger man. He just might be, despite all the great
things he’s accomplished over the years, done.
Hyundai Sun Bowl
#15 Arizona State
Todd Graham is more shady than Eminem, but that doesn’t
change the fact that this was one of the best teams in the Pac 12 this season.
Duke, for as good as they’ve been the last two years, always seemed a little
bit gimmicky to me. Yeah, sure, they’ll beat teams like Syracuse ,
but I don’t realistically expect them to defeat anyone that is really good.
Duck Commander Independence Bowl
I’m worried (actually, I would love for this to happen) that
the Gamecocks’ defense is going to get torched, because they couldn’t stop a
nosebleed, but whenever I’m unsure on a pick, and an SEC team is involved, I’ll
normally just sigh, shake my head, and pencil them in.
Also, keep an eye on the Hurricanes next season. I think that, slowly, Al Golden has really been building something special down there. Next year will be
key for him and this program. They could be extremely competitive, and maybe even win the conference. Or he could get fired.
It’s one or the other.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
I don’t have a great feel for this game, but I do know that I
haven’t been impressed with the Nittany Lions all season. The James Franklin
era didn’t quite get off to the same “Oh my gosh, how are you doing this?”
start in State College as it did at Vanderbilt. I still
think he’ll do a great job there, it’ll just take a little bit longer than I initially thought.
Can you imagine the competitiveness in the Big 10 East if Franklin
gets it going at Penn State, and Jim Harbaugh actually takes the Michigan
job? You’d have Urban Meyer at Ohio
State, Harbaugh at Michigan , Mark
Dantonio at Michigan St, and Franklin at Penn
State
#24 USC over Nebraska
I’m not a huge fan of the Trojans, but I just don’t think Nebraska
is that good either. They lost to the three best teams they played this season (Michigan
State , Wisconsin Minnesota ),
and struggled mightily with a mediocre Iowa
team in the last week of the season before pulling it out late. Plus, that
Husker defense is terrible (just ask Melvin Gordon).
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
How is it possible that A&M went 7-5? Kevin Sumlin is
their head coach! And he’s a genius! Or, maybe he isn’t, and instead, he's the most overrated coach in America .
Their defense sucks, and it’s getting more and more apparent that the Aggies
success in the SEC their first two years can be attributed directly to Johnny
Football.
Russell Athletic Bowl
#17 Clemson over Oklahoma
What a lost and disappointing season for the Sooners. They
had an exorbitant amount of momentum heading into this season after last year’s
destruction of Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, but they just didn’t live up to
expectations. They lost a close game to TCU, blew their home contest against
K-State, got leveled in Norman by
Baylor, and to top it all off, lost to the worst Oklahoma
State
AdvoCare V100 Texas
My Angry Old Man loves this game, because it reeks of, “the
ole’ Southwest Conference”. He then shed a tear, and remembered when the grass
was greener, the players tried harder, and their was no boom boom music. Or
something like that.
Anyway, I was a fan of how both these teams played at the end of
the season, but I really liked the way the Longhorn’s rallied around Charlie
Strong as the year went on. Plus, the SEC isn’t going undefeated in bowl games,
and they’ll definitely lose at least two. This one just seems like one that
they could.
LSU over Notre Dame
The Irish lost their last four games, and quarterback
Everett Golson had an insanely high 22 turnovers this season. That last stat
doesn’t indicate anything good for them, particularly since they're playing a ball-hawking,
turnover-forcing team like LSU. I actually think this game could get ugly
quickly.
Belk Bowl
Remember when the Bulldogs were getting talked up as a long
shot team for the four team playoff about a month ago, assuming they could win
the SEC? That all but ended when Missouri
won the SEC East by defeating Arkansas
on the last weekend of the season, and then Georgia
followed it up the next day by snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory against Georgia Tech. Not a great end to the 2014 season. Fortunately for Georgia ,
they get to play a team they’re way better than in their bowl game. So they’ve
got that going for them, which is nice.
Foster Farms Bowl
Stanford over Maryland
Everybody has individuals or teams that they inexplicably,
unexplainably, and irrationally love and hate. For example, my brother hates
Benedict Cumberbatch for some unexplained reason, and he basically takes a crap
on his acting career whenever he’s given the opportunity. I mean, you can
visibly see him get flustered whenever this guy appears on television, in a
commercial, or in a movie. You can tell he wants to just start yelling, only he
can’t really explain why he hates him, or even make a single coherent point, so
instead, it just comes out sounding like a gargled mess of sound. I don’t love
Cumberbatch (what a name by the way), but he’s not horrible right? Conversely,
my Angry Old Man irrationally loves Liam Neeson, and would be willing throw
money at him even if he was in a movie where he was wearing a banana suit, fighting
against an evil farmer who made the mistake of picking his daughter out of the
banana patch. I mean, he’s the only person I know who would openly admit to
really liking Taken 2.
I’m the same way with Stanford football. For whatever
reason, I just irrationally, and unexplainably, like the Cardinal. I like the
way they play, I think David Shaw is really good head coach, and I’m just a fan
of whatever they do really.
I'm like this way with a lot of random athletes/teams. I don’t have a real solid list of “irrational love”
or “irrational hate”, but here’s a starting point:
Irrational Love:
Stanford Football, Russell
Westbrook, Philip Rivers, Dez Bryant, Jerry Kill
Irrational Hate:
Kevin Sumlin, John Calipari, Clemson Football, Derek Jeter,
Jim Boeheim, Todd Graham
This, for me, is at least a good starting point of athletes,
coaches, and teams. And just for clarification purposes, someone can’t be an
“Irrational Love” candidate if they play for a team you root for, because if
you love them, it’s no longer irrational, because you now have an obvious,
solid, concrete reason to point to as to why you love them. Also, with an
irrational love guy, you pretty much have to be willing to defend him,
regardless of what happens. You may even make excuses for them that are so head
scratching and confusing that you eventually realize later on that what you
said made no sense. The same goes for an irrational hate guy, except the
opposite. For example, I’m never going to give Kevin Sumlin a break on
anything. Normally, a guy who coaches/plays for a team you hate can’t be on
this list, unless they’re such a snake (John Calipari) that your reasons for
not liking this guy go way beyond the fact that he competes against your favorite
team. I don’t love Nick Saban, but I don’t hate him either, and in many ways, I
respect him, even though he is 5’6 and has hair plugs. But Calipari? I’m
against that guy for life. You can’t be smug and arrogant in every dealing with
the media, and you can't have two Final Fours vacated, and stay off this list. He passes
the all important test that I just made up five seconds ago; if this guy didn’t
coach a team you rooted against, would you still hate him? The answer, with
Calipari, is yes.
Obviously, the details of this needs to be ironed out in
more detail. But more on that next week.
Now, onto my Week 17 NFL picks (Home team in CAPS)….
Before we jump into them, here are all
the playoff scenarios for every team still involved. So no, we aren’t talking
to you Jacksonville .
I’ll go through the games with no playoff impact first, and
then finish off with our biggest games of the week.
Colts over TITANS
This is one of those stupid Week 17 games, where one team
(in this case, the Colts) are going to rest everyone for a lot of the game
because they can’t better their playoff position, regardless of what they do. I’m
betting on Andrew Luck playing a few series, scoring a few points, and then
turning it over to backups, who should be able to hold onto a lead against this
inept Tennessee team.
Saints over BUCCANEERS
What a terrible year for the Saints. Sheesh. Thanks for
showing up and playing. Is this the year we’ll remember as the one where we
learned that Drew Brees was no longer an elite quarterback? I know his stats are
still great, but it seems like he makes more dumb decisions at the end of a
game than any “great” quarterback. That Falcons’ game last week was a perfect
example of this. I’d keep an eye on him next season.
GIANTS over Eagles
Remember how impressive Philly looked on Thanksgiving, when
they kicked the crap out of Dallas for four quarters, and asserted themselves
(or so we thought) as the best team in the NFC East? Well, they haven’t won a
game since then, and have gotten almost the worst possible iteration of Mark
Sanchez over that stretch. Meanwhile, Odell Beckham has spent the last
few weeks turning the NFL into his own personal playground, and I don’t see why it couldn’t
happen again this week. The Eagles have the worst corners in the league. You’re
telling me he couldn’t get open against THAT secondary? Please.
Bills over PATRIOTS
Only because New England has clinched
everything in the AFC already. I doubt they’ll play Brady for more than a
series or two, and unlike the Tennessee-Indy game, Buffalo
is actually good enough to beat a team’s backups.
By the way, what a stupid loss for Buffalo
last week, at Oakland . Good job
guys. You could’ve been in the playoff race this week, playing a team that isn’t
trying to win! Instead, your game doesn’t matter. Congratulations!
DOLPHINS over Jets
This is probably Rex Ryan’s last game as the head coach of
the New York Jets. It’s been a good run, and it’s given us a lot of great memories,
including the Butt Fumble; the worst possible play from
Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith, and Michael Vick, the the tattoo of his wife wearing a Sanchez jersey, and the most terrible offensive football
I’ve seen in the NFL the last ten years. Oh yeah, but they did get to
back-to-back AFC Championship Games. So it wasn’t all bad, right?
VIKINGS over Bears
Much like the Saints, thanks for playing this year Chicago !
We all really appreciate your contributions to the NFL this year, and so does
every offense that faced you! You made their jobs a whole lot easier!
Now, the games with playoff implications….
RAVENS over Browns
Who exactly is playing quarterback for the Browns this week?
Both Johnny Manziel and Brian Hoyer are out for Sunday, which means rookie Connor
Shaw will be under center for them. Good luck!
And if Baltimore
does miss the playoffs, they’ll have no one to blame but themselves. They blew
a 4th quarter lead at home against San Diego ,
giving them the tiebreaker, and followed it up last week by playing their worst
game of the year, in Houston ,
against the Texans. Joe Flacco was horrible! You can’t throw three picks in
Week 16 in a must-win game. You just can’t.
TEXANS over Jaguars
Chargers over CHIEFS
This game got a whole lot easier for the Bolts, who are now
facing a Kansas City team without
starting quarterback Alex Smith, who is out of the game because of a lacerated
spleen. They’ll be turning to Chase Daniel instead. I barely had any faith in
Alex Smith, but Chase Daniel? Really? San Diego
just caught another huge break.
BRONCOS over Raiders
A first round bye is at stake for Denver ,
and fortunately for them, they’ve got the Oakland Raiders coming to town. That’s
the best cure for bad football, something the Broncos played a lot of last week in Cincinnati .
49ERS over Cardinals
On a side note, my Angry Old Man pressed me yesterday on the opening at Michigan ,
and he demanded that I make a prediction today about who their next coach will
be. And by “demanded”, I mean he yelled a ton, threw things, and was basically
in an uproar for three hours. So rather than upset him again, I’ll oblige him.
I think Michigan
is going to get Jim Harbaugh.
On Monday, I think Harbaugh will resign as the coach of the 49ers, followed by an announcement later in the week that he's the new coach at Michigan. It just makes too
much sense. I don’t think the Wolverines would sit by for this long without
hiring someone, just hoping and praying for Harbaugh. I think they would’ve
seen the writing on the wall by now if he wasn’t coming, shrugged their shoulders,
and hired someone else. I think they know something the media doesn’t, and it’s
that Harbaugh, at the end of the season, will be coming to Ann
Arbor .
And just for the record, I think he’ll be a grand slam there.
SEAHAWKS over Rams
FALCONS over Panthers
This is a stupid game, and I hate that it has playoff
implications in Week 17. Both these teams are terrible! If you take out the Tampa
Bay Atlanta
is 4-9, and Carolina is 4-8-1 ? Really? One of these squads are
going to be in the playoffs? I’m picking Atlanta
not only because they’re at home, but also because the Carolina
offense is absolutely abysmal. Do you realize that since their tie with Cincinnati
in Week 6, the Panthers have scored more than 19 points just twice? Twice! 19
points! Please, one of you guys, just pack up your tents, and go home. And hopefully,
we’ll be rid of the other on sooner rather than later.
PACKERS over Lions
STEELERS over Bengals
I group these two games (coincidentally, both for division
titles) together, because my reason for picking the winners is the same.
Really, I get Matthew Stafford and Andy Dalton on the road, in Week 17, against
established, veteran quarterbacks and teams at home? I have more faith that I’ll
wake up tomorrow, sprout wings, and begin to fly, than I do in either Detroit
or Cincinnati . Dalton
could have a three interception disaster at any point (and he might be due for
one), and I don’t think I’ve ever seen Stafford win a
big game, either in college or the NFL. These games are, and will be on Sunday,
indicative of both these teams, and why we view the Packers and Steelers a
certain way, and why we view the Lions and Bengals the way we do. Green
Bay and Pittsburgh
win games like this one. Detroit
and Cincy? Not so much.
-
So, like always, enjoy football this weekend. You deserve
it.
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