Baylor Is Getting Screwed; Plus Conference Championship And Week 14 NFL Picks

The college football regular season comes to a close this Saturday, as there are seven conference championship games, plus the KansasState at Baylor game, which should be really important, but probably won’t be, because the playoff committee is stupid.

I’ll never, for as long as I live, understand the committee’s love for TCU, particularly at the expense of Baylor. The teams, after this weekend, will have virtually played the same schedule, only the Bears won the head-to-head match up between the teams. Remember that game? The one the Horned Frogs led by TWENTY-ONE in the 4^th quarter? Then they started playing tight, stopped tackling, and allowed Baylor receivers to run free in the secondary. They blew the lead and lost the game. Again, it was a TWENTY ONE point lead! To me, that’s a bad loss. You’re supposed to win when you lead by three touchdowns at any point in the game, much less the 4^thquarter. But they didn’t. They blew it. However, apparently the committee doesn’t care about who won the head-to-head match up. From the committee chair Jeff Long on Tuesday:

“Again, that's what this committee, human committee does. It evaluates the teams on their play in the game… Again, I can't say it's one thing. It's a number of things we look at, and we believe TCU is better and deserving of that No. 3 rank over Baylor.”

What?

That makes no sense! They played, and Baylor won! And they have the same record! How is TCU ranked THREE spots ahead of them? What is going on? I’m not even a Baylor fan and I’m riled up about this. I can’t imagine how I’d feel if I was.

And don’t even get me started on how hypocritical the guys running the Big 12 are. All season, those buffoons have been running commercials, talking about how they would have “one true champion”, because every team plays every other team, unlike the rest of the Power 5 conferences. But now, the league office has announced that if both schools finish 11-1, they’ll actually have co-champions, and not one, like they stated in their stupid commercials all season. How gutless, spineless, and dumb is that?

The playoff committee, at least thus far, earns an “F” for their inaugural season. But it’s not too late! They can still fix this! Do the right thing!

Now, onto this weekend’s games. For reasons still unexplained, my Angry Old Man was insistent that I pick EVERY conference championship game, including Conference USA, the MAC and the Mountain West. I’m not sure why he wanted it that way, but when he insisted I do it earlier in the week, he looked at me like he looks at a plateful of Doritos before he devours them (meaning heavy breathing, with his nostrils flared, and a weird angry glare), so instead of incurring his wrath, I’ll just do it.

Without further ado…..

MAC Championship

Northern Illinois over Bowling Green

This is a rematch of last year’s championship game, which Bowling Green won. Northern Illinois is 10-2, and are playing in their 5^thconsecutive MAC Title Game. Bowling Green backed into the championship game, as they finished the season with two straight losses. NIU has been much more impressive lately, as they haven’t lost since October 11^th. Aren’t the Huskies just significantly better? I think so.

Conference USA Championship

Marshall over Louisiana Tech

The original thinking behind this pick was, “Marshall, because Derek Dooley coached at Tech, and I’m not sure they’ve been able to quite get rid of his stink yet”. But then I remembered that Marshall was 11-1, and hadn’t lost a game all year until last Saturday. They’ve been the best team in that conference all season, and will prove as much this weekend.

Mountain West Championship

#22 Boise State over Fresno State

How is Fresno State in this game? They finished the year 6-6! If the SEC West and the Pac 12 South are the Larry Bird and Magic Johnson of college football divisions, then the West Division (which Fresno is in) of the Mountain West is definitely Kwame Brown. Meanwhile, Boise State has had another really good season (they’re 10-2), this time under first year head coach Bryan Harsin. I’m not picking against them. They’ve burned me too many times when I thought I was smart and picked their opponents. Plus, Fresno State lost 6 times this year. So that makes it a whole lot easier.

SEC Championship

#1 Alabama over #16 Missouri

The Tide are the best team in the country. The only thing that concerns me about this pick is the fact that Alabama struggled last week to cover all of Auburn’s big, speedy wideouts, allowing Nick Marshall to have a career day. Missouri has the same type of athletes on the outside. Bud Sasser, Darius White, and Jimmie Hunt (their three leading receivers) are all 6 feet or taller, and are capable of making plays in the passing game. And honestly, I’m not even sure why I used the word “concerned”.I hate Alabama, and nothing would bring me more joy than seeing them lose this game to a clearly inferior Mizzou team, followed by Nick Saban pulling his hair plugs out. Unfortunately, I don’t think it’s likely. The Tigers don’t have a superstar player like Nick Marshall back there tossing the ball all over the yard for them; instead, they have Maty Mauk, who’s been vacillating between Alex “Game Manager” Smith and Jamarcus “Please Stop Hurting Us” Russell all year, with almost every in-between quarterback iteration in between (yes, even Rex “What Are You Even Thinking?” Grossman). Why would I have any faith in that guy, playing against one of the nation’s best defenses? I shouldn’t, and I won’t. Either he’s going to have to be great on Saturday, or their defense is going to have to find a way to completely slow down Amari Cooper and that offense. Good luck.

ACC Championship

#4 Florida State over #11 Georgia Tech

I badly wanted to pick the Yellow Jackets. I really did. And I can see plenty of scenarios in which they’d win. But they won’t. FSU always finds a stupid way to win these games against inferior opponents, and they’ll do it again tomorrow. Believe me, I’d love to see just about anybody else in the four team playoff besides the‘Noles. Anybody who has watched football all season couldn’t rationally or logically argue that they’re one of the four best teams. They’ve won all of their games, but so what? Wouldn’t Alabama, Oregon, TCU, Baylor, and a bunch of other teams be undefeated in the ACC this season, and look way more impressive doing it than FSU? Of course they would. Because they’re the defending champs, and haven’t lost in two years, I’m fine with keeping them in the playoff, but that doesn’t mean I have to ignore what I’ve seen all season. I’m not going to be a drone and a fool like Mike Greenberg, and declare that Florida State should be ranked number 1. That’s crazy.

For Tech to win, they’ll need two things to go in their favor:

1. Score touchdowns early with long, physical drives. They can easily do this, because they run the ball more times than Verne Lundquist butchers calls during games. I love you Verne, and you’ll always be the voice of SEC Football for me, but it might be time for you and CBS to move on.
2. Get another “Bad First Half Jameis” game from Winston. He’s done this multiple times this season, most recently last Saturday, when he threw three interceptions in the first 30 minutes.

If both these things happen, and Tech is able to jump out to an early lead, they might be able to kill the clock in the second half with that aforementioned devastating run game. And even that might not be enough. Jameis has been much better in the second half of games this season, and teams just haven’t been able to put them away. It’s weird how FSU can suck until they need to be great; and when they need it, they’ll suddenly morph into the Greatest Show on Turf mixed with the’85 Bears, and begin murdering the other team. I could easily see that happening again this week, and that’s why I’m picking the Seminoles. Then, in a month, when they get blasted in the semifinals by Alabama or someone else, we can finally be rid of college Jameis and slimy,” I’ve-got-to-cover-for-Winston” Jimbo Fisher forever.

Big 10 Championship

#13 Wisconsin over #5 Ohio State

If J.T. Barrett was playing on Saturday, I’d go with the Buckeyes and not think twice about it. But now, with Cardale Jones lining up under center for them, I’m nowhere near as confident. In fact, I’d argue that they’re mostly average around Barrett, only he was so great as the season progressed that he covered up a ton of holes for them. Plus, Wisconsin has one of the few really good defenses left in college football (they only give up an average of 260 yards a game). That doesn’t bode well for a guy making his first career start in an extremely big game. And good luck slowing down the Badgers’ Melvin Gordon with a rush defense that gives up 145.6 yards per game. I expect Gordon, who should win the Heisman, to have a huge day on the ground, and for Wisconsin to win by at least 10 points.

Pac 12 Championship

#2 Oregon over #7 Arizona

A lot has been made over the last week about the fact that Arizona has beaten Oregon two straight times, and that because of this, they might just be the better team. That’s silly. The Ducks are playing great right now, and they’ve been blasting and blowing through the 2^ndbest conference in the country. They’ve won seven straight games by at least 12 points or more, and are getting Marcus Mariota’s best season of his career (Through the air: 3,470 yards, 36 TDs, 2 picks. On the ground: 636 yards, 11 TDs). Plus, if you remember back to that early October Arizona win, Oregon had a ton of injuries on the offensive line, which pretty much killed their chance to run the offense the way they wanted to run it. Those injuries are no longer a factor, and because of that, Oregon will win tonight.

#6 Baylor over #9Kansas State

This is the best Saturday football game. People have forgotten how good K-State is, because they’ve been eliminated from the playoff race since they got thrashed at TCU. No one has really talked about them since then. But this is still a good football team, and one that doesn’t beat themselves (they only have ten turnovers all year). They could easily win on Saturday. Then again, that Baylor offense has been unstoppable, and I’ve watched them torch a ton of teams this season (they absolutely dominated Oklahoma in Norman). The only thing that could trip the Bears up this week would be if Bryce Petty plays poorly because of the concussion he suffered in their last game against Texas Tech. This win, if Baylor can get it, is one that should’ve cemented them in the playoff, because Kansas State is a really good team, and this would be a great victory at this point in the season. But the committee has already shown their hand, and pretty much let us know that Baylor’s only shot at making the playoff is if a bunch of teams above them lose. What a load of crap.

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Now, onto the NFL (home team in CAPS)......

Cowboys over BEARS

This is the first week of December, a month that has been a bigger pain in the neck for Dallas than a noose. So I half-expected for them to go into Chicago yesterday, play terribly, and lose. Shockingly, and amazingly, they played really well, and left the Midwest victorious. Keep an eye on Dallas this month though. It wouldn’t surprise me if they got run over by December, again.

BENGALS over Steelers

I have no idea what to do with this Cincinnati team. They, after struggling mightily during the middle of the season, all of the sudden have turned back into that team we saw in September. They’ve won their last three games, which were, impressively enough, all on the road. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh really hurt themselves last week. That New Orleans loss was a stupid, and there’s no reason they should’ve got completely outplayed by a mediocre Saints team, one that has always struggled outside. I always feel foolish when I shrug my shoulders and pick a team quarterbacked by Andy Dalton, but Cincy is just playing better right now, and they SHOULD win. And when they inevitably lose on Sunday, I’ll frown, sigh, shake my head, and once again remind myself to never pick a team with Dalton at the helm again.

Rams over REDSKINS

St. Louis is the right quarterback away from being a contender. Where are the holes on this team, besides that position? They just shut out the Raiders (yeah, I know, it’s the Raiders, but it’s still an NFL team, probably), winning 52-0, with Shaun Hill starting at quarterback. What if they had someone above average guy like Ryan Tannehill playing that position for them? How good would they be then? Regardless, they won’t need anyone other than Hill to beat a horribly inept Redskins team this week.

Giants over TITANS

The G-Men can’t lose again can they? They’ve now lost seven games in a row after last week’s debacle in Jacksonville. I think Tom Coughlin is a really good head coach, but I also think it’s time for a change in leadership in New York. Including this season, the Giants have made the playoffs one time in the last six seasons. Here’s a potential candidate for their next head coach, a name that I haven’t heard connected with them just yet: Jim Harbaugh. Why not? They play in a big market, with a smart, stable organization, and a two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback in Eli Manning. Wouldn’t that be the best open job in the NFL this off-season? Why would Harbaugh and the Giants not be interested in each other? New York needs to make improvements on the offensive line, and on defense, but besides that, it’s not like this team is THAT far from contending again. Things can flip in the NFL in an instant. Why couldn’t it happen in the Big Apple, with a smart and dedicated guy like Harbaugh, and that front office?

SAINTS over Panthers

Carolina has quietly been one of this season’s biggest disappointments. After starting the year 3-2, they haven’t won a game since October 5^th. I’m not going to pile on Cam Newton too much, like a lot of people have, because I don’t think he’s even close to being 100%, and he has the worst offensive weapons in the league. His best receiver is Kelvin Benjamin, a rookie who isn’t ready to be a franchise, number one wideout quite yet. New Orleans actually showed a pulse last week, the first time they’ve done that since their still-puzzling victory over Green Bay in Week 8. I think the Saints will ultimately win that division, even if they finish 7-9, and it will start this week with their victory at home against Carolina.

VIKINGS over Jets

Every other NFL locker room thanks you, the Jets, for being on their schedule this season. Not only do they love a guaranteed win, but they’re also overjoyed about seeing a team quarterbacked by Geno Smith/Mike Vick. The defense loves when they get to make plays and get stops without even trying.

DOLPHINS over Ravens

The Seahawk-like Adderall suspension for Ravens' defensive lineman Haloti Ngata is a huge blow for this Baltimore team. He was such a huge part of what they did on defense, and without him, they aren’t anywhere near as intimidating or difficult to deal with. Plus, Ryan Tannehill has secretly been really good this season, as he has completed over 70% of his passes in five straight games. The only quarterback over the last decade to have a longer streak than that is Peyton Manning, which is impressive company for the third year starter. Plus, if you just look at Miami’s losses, they’re really not that far from being 9-3 or 10-2, instead of 7-5. They were so close in that Green Bay game, before Aaron Rodgers led that huge, game-winning touchdown drive. Their game in Detroit could’ve gone either way, and they were a bad 4^th quarter away from leaving Denver victorious. This is a really good team, and I expect them to play much better than Baltimore on Sunday.

Colts over BROWNS

Cleveland is the worst 7-5 team in the league, and Brian Hoyer has suddenly turned into a below-average NFL starter. In his last three games, he has one TD and six picks. In other words, he's doing his best Geno Smith impression. If Hoyer isn’t great (and I don’t think he will be) for the rest of the season, this will be his last year in Cleveland. His contract is up after this season, and the Browns drafted Johnny Manziel in the first round so they could play him, not so he could sit on the bench behind a 29 year old with 11 TDs and 10 picks in 2014. Indy has beat up on all the average-to-bad teams they’ve played this year, and I expect that to continue this week. And when Cleveland loses in two days, I think the run for them, at least this season, will be over. They’ll throw Manziel in there, and I think at times, he'll struggle greatly.

LIONS over Bucs

We haven’t seen Detroit since Thanksgiving, but they played their best offensive game since Week 1 that day, as they dismantled the Bears. Then again, how impressive is that really? Everybody has done that to Chicago this season. Regardless, even if the Lions’ offense struggles again, they won’t need them this week to beat the hapless Bucs.

Texans over JAGUARS

Congrats Jacksonville and Blake Bortles on your big win last week against the Giants. This week, prepare to meet and deal with J.J. Watt. He’ll destroy you.

BRONCOS over Bills

Denver seems to have discovered a physical running game (C.J. Anderson had 168 yards on 32 carries on Sunday Night), something they’ll need to win in the playoffs. Denver won’t need Manning to be great to win on Sunday, but keep an eye on how his ball looks on Sunday. He threw 10-12 absolute ducks againstKansas City, a disturbing trend for that team.

CARDINALS over Chiefs

I don’t have a great feel for this one, though many people would argue I don’t have a great feel for any game, because if I did, I wouldn’t consistently whiff on pick after pick after pick. Whoops. Anyway, both these teams are reeling off back-to-back losses, and haven’t looked good in two weeks. I just think Arizona has a better roster, and they have the ability to force turnovers, something Kansas City isn’t great at doing. If they could get a turnover or two that could set them up with a short field, they might be able to score a few points, something that’s been a challenge for the Drew Stanton-led offense. This will be a close, low scoring game, one that the Cards will eek out late.

Seahawks over EAGLES

Mark Sanchez has been fairly impressive this season, but he also hasn’t faced a defense like Seattle’s, one that flies around and is relentless for four quarters. The Legion of Boom has gotten their swagger back, and the pass rush is inching closer to being that unstoppable force they were last year. If Sanchez struggles early, I think this game could get ugly. Seattle is so limited offensively that I’m not sure they’re capable of beating someone 41-10 anymore, but they are definitely capable of physically and mentally overwhelming a team with a 19-3 win, like they have the last two games. I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw a similar type game this week, one that resembles their last two victories.

49ers over RAIDERS

The Harbaugh Bowl, because a Jim-to-Oakland trade has been rumored all week. Here’s my advice to Harbaugh: RUN IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF OAKLAND AS QUICKLY AS YOU CAN!!! YOU SHOULD LEAVE SKID MARKS FLEEING FROM THAT HELL HOLE!!! New York is a far superior franchise, and they’d be silly to not want you as their head coach. If given the opportunity, go there.

CHARGERS over Patriots

I know, I know, I probably have a blind spot for the Bolts (actually, there’s no “probably” about it, I definitely do). Though, to be fair, they do seem to be hitting their stride again, which I thought would eventually happen. And here’s the craziest stat of the week: Philip Rivers is 30-6 in his career as a starter in the month of December. Impressive, right? In other words, he’s like the Cowboys in December, except the exact opposite. Two concerns for San Diego: they’ll start their fifth different center of the season on Sunday (uh oh), and New England, instead of flying back to Massachusetts after Sunday’s loss in Green Bay, decided to fly out to Southern California, and spend the entire week preparing on the west coast, eliminating the potential jet lag/traveling-across-the-country advantage for the Chargers. Hmmm…. 30-6! THIS IS PHILIP RIVERS’ MONTH!!!!

PACKERS over Falcons

Finally, the Monday Night game. Why am I even thinking about this one? Atlanta’s terrible! Green Bay’s the best team in the league! Will this one even be close?

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So, like always, enjoy football this weekend. You deserve it.

The Week In Football: The College Football Playoff Heats Up, Manning's Dead Duck, and Tattoos on Santa

On Saturday night, the Tennessee Vols got their 6^th win of the season, making them bowl eligible for the first time since 2010. They also ended Vanderbilt’s embarrassing two game winning streak against them, allowing the Commodores to finish the year 0-8 in the conference. Not a great first year for Derek Mason in Nashville. So much for Vandy “not missing a beat” without James Franklin. That school has a ton of smart fans, but they did their best dumb Alabama fan (Harvey Updyke or Phyllis) impression by blindly declaring that they didn’t need Franklin to continue their level of recent success. Really? Vanderbilt, like I expected, quickly returned to mediocrity and unimportance, just like they’ve been for most of their history. Franklin was a game changer for them, and probably didn’t get enough credit from the rest of the country (or the Vandy fans) for how great he was down there. I mean, he won 9 games in back-to-back years at Vanderbilt. I’ll probably have grandkids or be dead before that happens again.

 

But back to the Vols. Making a bowl game was huge for this team, and for Butch, because there’s no way he could’ve allowed Derek Dooley to have more success in his first two years than he did (Dooley went to a bowl game in year 1). They’ll get some extra practice time, another game on television, and some added momentum to carry into next season. They still have more holes on the offensive line than the plot of the Star Wars prequels, but they showed enough signs at the end of the year to get me excited for next season.

 

Now, onto the rest of the weekend…..

 

Tossed out of the Cornfield

 

Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini got the axe on Sunday morning, as he was fired, despite winning 9 games for the 7^th straight season. He went 67-27 in his seven years in charge of the program, though they never won a conference championship, or played in a BCS Bowl. Athletic Director Shawn Eichorst’s reason for the canning was simple; “We weren't good enough in the games that mattered… I didn't see that changing at the end of the day.”

 

My question is, what are they expecting? They’ve won 9 games every season he’s been in charge, and they’ve been in the conference title race pretty much every year. This isn’t Nebraska of the ‘70s, ‘80s, or ‘90s. The landscape of college football has changed, as it’s really hard to convince kids to come to Lincoln, Nebraska (which is in the middle of nowhere), with it’s bone-chilling winter temperatures. The state produces almost no legitimate Division 1 football players, and neither do any of the states that border them. They’ve got fan support, and an administration that is fully committed to winning, but so does 25 other programs. Honestly, I think Pelini’s done a pretty good job there, considering all the obstacles. Plus, this was probably the worst off-season to make a change, because Nebraska is the 3^rd best job opening. Florida is way better (in state talent, warm weather), as is Michigan, which borders Ohio, only one of the most fertile recruiting areas in the country. Two names stand out to me as potential replacements, at least right now: Mike Gundy and Jerry Kill. Assuming both of those guys get passed over for the Florida and Michigan job openings, I think Nebraska would (and should) be really happy if they got either of those guys.

 

ACC Dominance?

 

It wasn’t a good day for the SEC on Saturday, at least on the surface, as the conference lost all of their in-state rivalry games to schools from the ACC. Never mind that these were the combined records for the teams heading into those games:

 

SEC: 26-17

ACC: 36-8

 

You had the horrible and offensively inept Gators, the “we can’t stop a nosebleed” Gamecocks, Kentucky (they’re so bad they don’t even need a qualifier), and Georgia, who blew their game against Georgia Tech. Besides the Bulldogs, this wasn’t exactly the class of the SEC this year. It’s not like the ACC teams beat Alabama, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss on Saturday. The fact is, their undefeated team, the one that will be favored in this weekend’s conference championship game, FSU, struggled mightily for 4 quarters at home against Florida, a team that plays offense like a bad Pop Warner team. On paper, the ACC had the best team in 3 of these games (FSU-UF, Clemson-South Carolina, and Louisville-UK), and got Georgia’s best Clemson impression in the Tech game that allowed the Yellow Jackets to escape Athens victorious. How in the world do the Dawgs lose that game? You have a three point lead with 18 seconds left! Tech can’t consistently throw the ball down the field. If they kick the ball deep, instead of squib kicking it, they win that game 99 times out of 100. Instead, because they kicked it short, Tech started their possession close to midfield, which allowed Yellow Jacket QB Justin Thomas to get them in field goal range by simply breaking contain and rushing for 21 yards. What a head scratching and game-costing decision.  Again: THIS TEAM STRUGGLES TO CONSISTENTLY THROW THE BALL DOWN THE FIELD. You should know this, because they spent almost the entire game running the ball. Georgia allowed Tech to get into field goal range without even completing a pass. Just boot the ball deep, cover the kick, and make them beat you chucking the ball down the field with the little time they had remaining. I’m frustrated with this game and I’m not even a Georgia fan. I can’t imagine how I’d feel if I rooted for them.

 

My 4 Team Playoff

 

1. Alabama. Despite three interceptions from their quarterback Blake Sims, the Tide were still able to score 55 points. Who else in the country could do that? And what other team could survive Auburn QB Nick Marshall’s best game ever, as he passed for a school record 456 yards? The process for getting into the playoff is simple for the Tide; win Saturday’s SEC Title Game, and they’ll be in. And honestly, I hate that. I don’t think I’ve taken enough time in this space to let everyone know the level of disdain I have for the Crimson Tide. I’ve taken more shots at Clemson and UCLA this season, schools I don’t even hate, than I have at Alabama, a program I wouldn’t root for against the Soviets. The only thing more annoying than the Tide’s recent success is how angry their redneck fans get when their number of claimed national titles is called into question (I’m sorry, but they don’t have 15 legitimate national championships), or when their fans get equally angry when people mention that their head coach, hero, and God, Nick Saban, is a surprisingly short 5’6.
2. Oregon. The Ducks took care of business in the Civil War this weekend against Oregon State, and now face an Arizona team in Pac 12 Championship Game that has beat them two straight times. Just like Alabama, the playoff formula for Oregon is simple; win, and they’ll be in. Also, on a side note, take a look at this Marcus Mariota picture:
   
   That’s the greatest in-game Heisman pose since Desmond Howard's punt return against Ohio State. However, I’m not Alabama (meaning dumb) enough to let a single cool photo change my opinion on the Heisman race. Melvin Gordon is still the best player in college football, and should win the award.
3. Florida State. With Mississippi State’s loss in the Egg Bowl, and Baylor’s narrow victory over Texas Tech, I moved the ‘Noles up a spot this week. Jameis Winston was terrible on Saturday (4 picks), and FSU allowed a bad Gators’ team to hang around for way too long. I’ll be rooting like hell for Georgia Tech to knock them off this weekend in the ACC Championship Game, though I realize it’s probably not going to happen. As bad as the Seminoles have been for long stretches in games, they always seem to find a way to squeak it out at the end, or catch a lucky break. I hate that this team gets to struggle every week in that cupcake conference, and I can’t wait for them to get in the playoff and be blasted by Alabama or Oregon in the semifinals.
4. Baylor. Bryce Petty’s concussion in the 3^rd quarter against the Red Raiders was concerning, though he has vowed to play in next week’s showdown at home against K-State. Assuming he can go, I think the Bears should get into the playoff with a win on Saturday. They’d be conference champions, and they’d have the head-to-head win against TCU. Then again, I’ve been saying this all season, and the committee has still been putting the Horned Frogs ahead of them. So what do I know?

 

I’d rank TCU 5^th, Ohio State 6^th, Arizona 7^th, and Mississippi State 8^th. I don’t think the Bulldogs can’t get back into the playoff race after their loss this weekend. They don’t have any games left on their schedule to impress the committee, and they, unlike everyone ranked ahead of them, cannot win their conference title. So as great and memorable as their season has been, it’s probably over.

 

TCU can get into the playoff if they win, and K-State beats Baylor, or someone else above them loses (like Florida State). They’d have one loss, be conference champions, and have some impressive wins (K-State, West Virginia, Minnesota, Oklahoma, etc.) under their belt. Ohio State will get in if they win the Big 10 Title Game against Wisconsin, and two teams above them lose. I can’t see them, without star QB J.T. Barrett, making a strong case to the committee unless two teams lose. That Barrett injury was as damning as it was disappointing. His rapidly improving play was one of the main reasons people were arguing that they should be in the playoff. Now, without him, they don’t stand a chance without catching a few breaks in the last week of the season. They aren’t going to jump anyone that wins this week.

 

Arizona is an interesting team. If they beat Oregon in the Pac 12 Title Game, they’d have two victories over the Ducks, while also having two losses themselves. They’d also be champions of the second best conference in the country. Could you really justify putting two Big 12 teams in the playoff, or a Big 12 and Big 10 team in, without putting in the Pac 12 champ? That league, particularly the Pac 12 South, has been brutal this season. USC just got done mopping the floor with Notre Dame, and they lost 3 games in conference this year. And what if Baylor, Florida State, and Oregon all lose next week? Would the playoff be Alabama, TCU, Ohio State, and Arizona? How much would the committee penalize FSU for losing? And could Georgia Tech find a way to sneak into the playoff? There are so many unanswered questions going into the final weekend of the season, and ultimate chaos is still a possibility. Regardless, I can’t wait to see what happens this weekend.

 

Now, onto the NFL…..

 

SAN DIEGO SUPER CHARGERS

 

The Bolts, my AFC Super Bowl pick, made me look intelligent for siding with them for only the second time this season (the other time was their Week 2 victory against Seattle), as they played one of their most courageous games of the season, and won at Baltimore. And yes, I really do appreciate when I look smart, because it’s happened so infrequently this season. It was a gritty win for San Diego, and a game they had to have. They’ve still got a brutal schedule remaining (home against New England and Denver, and then at San Fran and Kansas City to finish the season), but they are 8-4, and at least game ahead of all the other AFC Wild Card contenders. The New England and Denver games should be difficult, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect them to win at least one of those games. At San Francisco looked like a tough game a few weeks ago, until you remembered that they’ve been pretty dreadful on offense all year (thank you Kaepernick!), and that the situation between Jim Harbaugh and the front office could implode at any time. And should they really be scared of Kansas City at the end of the year? They can’t complete any throws down the field, they haven’t been able to generate much of a pass rush the last two weeks, and teams have suddenly figured out how to gash them with running game (CJ Anderson had 32 carries for 168 yards yesterday). For the first time since they were 5-1, I feel good about San Diego. And now that I’ve said that, they’ll probably lose the last four. Please don’t.

 

Peyton and the Dead Duck

 

Manning had one of his worst games of the season last night in Kansas City (50% completions, 179 yards), and there were multiple times where his ball failed to cut through the wind and ended up dying in the air. It’s no secret that he doesn’t have the same zip on throws that he did five years ago (and that’s probably the case for every 38 year old), but in terms of arm strength, he’s a whole lot closer to Chad Pennington than he is to Aaron Rodgers. Denver didn’t need Manning to be great to beat K.C., but they’ll need him on his “A” game to win at New England, or a cold weather game in Denver against Indy or whoever they end up playing in the playoffs. It was 23 degrees at kickoff last night. What if it was 15 degrees in Denver or New England, with snow on the ground, or driving wind? How would Manning fair then? He’s never been great in cold weather, even when he was in his athletic and physical prime. Now? It could be disastrous. Thankfully for Denver, the defense seems to be hitting their stride again, and the offensive line has started to open up some holes for the running game. That will be enough for them to make the playoffs, but if they want to accomplish their ultimate goal, winning the Super Bowl, they’ll need Manning to be great. And I’m not sure he can be outside, in cold weather.

 

Green Bay cools off the Pats

 

The Pack handled their business at home against the hottest team in the NFL, New England, who hadn’t lost a game since September. Aaron Rodgers was, like always, great (368 yards, 2 TDs, no picks), and was amazingly able to stay upright for most of the game. It was shocking to watch how much time he had to stand back in the pocket and look down the field. There were multiple instances where Rodgers was able to reset 3 or 4 times in the pocket and continue to search for open receivers, before he was able to either complete a pass to one of them, or take off and run through and enormous hole in the defensive line. I’ll give Green Bay’s O-line a ton of credit for giving him all the time he needed. Basically, they did the exact opposite of what Tennessee’s offensive line has done for the Vols’ quarterbacks this season. Still, I think, at least right now, that these two teams are the NFL’s best, and I wouldn’t be shocked in they met in Arizona for the Super Bowl in February.

 

The Champs back on track, and the end of Niners?

 

Come back with me to Thursday night. The Seahawks have now won back-to-back slugfests against Arizona and San Francisco, and now sit just one game behind the Cardinals for the NFC West lead. They now look like the Legion of Boom, crazy pass rushing, Adderall-fueled (just kidding… hopefully) machine that they were last year. I would not want to play them in the playoffs, particularly if they end up getting a home game. That place is crazy; it literally melts other teams.

 

I stupidly picked the Niners on Thursday, because I keep ignoring the fact that Colin Kaepernick, for all his talents, might be the most inconsistent QB in the league. He was so bad on Thanksgiving (55.2% completions, 121 yards, 2 picks), and really hasn’t been that great all season (15 TDs, 8 picks, only one game in which his team scored more than 30 points). Those two playoff wins against Aaron Rodgers seem like a century ago.

 

Is this the end of the Niners run? They sit at 7-5, out of the playoffs, with games left at Oakland, at Seattle, and home against San Diego and Arizona. They could easily go 1-3 in those games, finish 8-8, and miss the playoffs. And if that happens, then it’s the end for Harbaugh, who hasn’t been able to agree to a new deal with San Fran going into the last year of his contract. He might get fired, or he might take another job, but he won’t be back. And it would be a shame, because as great as they’ve been, I’m not sure there’s a team in sports’ history that’s had a more devastating end to three straight seasons than the Niners. They had the Kyle Williams' fumbles in the 2011 NFC Championship Game against the Giants; 4th and goal stop against the Ravens in the Super Bowl the next season; and then last year's excruciating pick in the end zone that sealed their fate against their heated rivals, Seattle, in the NFC Title Game. Devastating losses to end three straight seasons? Just brutal. The only NFL situation I can compare to this one would be the Buffalo Bills, who did lose in the Super Bowl four straight years, though only one of those games was actually close, the Scott Norwood missed field goal game in Super Bowl XXV. In other sports, the most comparable example would be the Detroit Pistons, who had two straight brutal eliminations, including losing the 1987 Eastern Conference Finals to the Celtics in seven games. In that series, they had the Game 5 choke job by Isiah Thomas, when his inbound pass late in the game was picked off by Larry Bird, who immediately flipped it to Dennis Johnson for for the winning layup. They also lost Game 7 in Boston by three points. They followed it up in 1988 by losing back-to-back heartbreakers (Game 6 by 1 point, and Game 7 by three points) in the Finals, in Los Angeles against the Lakers, including Game 7, in which the fans stormed the court before the game was even over. But their hearts were only broken for two years, as they won the title the next season by getting revenge on the Lakers and sweeping them. San Fran might not get their chance at redemption like the Pistons did, and what a bitter pill that would be for Niner fans to swallow. Heck, I was pretty mad when Tennessee lost to Missouri this season, a game that ultimately doesn’t matter all that much in the long term. I can’t imagine how I’d feel if I went through gut punch losses to end three straight seasons.

 

Finally, my Angry Old Man, who, through his ramblings, has once again forced his way onto this page. He shot me an angry text on Saturday night; “We’ve lost the country! I just saw a commercial with Santa Claus, and this Jolly Old St. Nick had tats! Is nothing sacred! Why do we have to destroy every American icon? The disappointment I felt in that moment reminded me of the disappointment I felt every time you brought your report card home from school!”

 

As you can see, he’s riled up, like always. Personally, I don’t necessarily think there’s a problem Santa having tattoos. I’ll admit that when I saw the commercial later, that was the first thing I noticed, but it wasn’t necessarily a big deal to me. I don’t have any tats, and I don’t really have any interest in getting one, but I also don’t think it’s big deal if a person has one. There is still a certain rebel element associated with them, but I also don’t think that stigma will exist in 15 or 20 years. How many people on TV now feel like they can freely unveil their tats without any consequence. Adam Levine is on “The Voice”, and his arms are covered in them. I haven’t heard any controversy about that, and I think it’s an overall relaxed attitude that our culture has towards them. Society is more casual than ever, and I wouldn’t be shocked if you start to see more and more television reporters and media personnel freely showing off their ink in the next few years.

 

But back to the original question; is it a big deal for Santa to have tats? I guess it depends on how you feel about tattoos, and how passionately you feel about how Santa looks. I don’t necessarily care about either of those things, particularly not how St. Nick looks, because he’s a created character (I’m sorry, but it’s true), and I don’t necessarily think it’s a big deal if a character goes through minor physical changes through time, depending on what the culture and society deems appropriate and acceptable. As long as the characteristics of Santa stay the same (a nice, warm spirit, who chortles, brings presents, etc.), I’m fine with a few physical changes. Plus, it’s not like Santa suddenly becomes a bad guy if you throw a few tats on him right?

 

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Like always, enjoy the Monday Night Game. You deserve it.

Thanksgiving Weekend College Football and NFL Game Picks

My weekly football picks are back, this time on Wednesday, because there are so many huge college and NFL games over this Thanksgiving weekend. I’m too excited to blabber on about anything else right now, so let’s just get to it.

 

College Football (Home Team in Caps)

 

Arkansas over #17 MISSOURI

 

If Missouri wins this game, they’ll be the SEC East Champs. If they lose, then Georgia wins the East. I almost sided with the Tigers, before I remembered that they have one of the worst offenses in the SEC. Mizzou averages just 361 yards of total offense, which is just more than what Vanderbilt averages (290), and just below what Florida averages (379). The Razorbacks and that defense are probably the worst possible match up for them right now, as Arkansas has shut out back-to-back conference opponents (LSU and Ole Miss), and has given up only 31 points combined in games against Alabama, Mississippi State, LSU, and Ole Miss. I think the Tigers will struggle to score the entire game against that swarming Razorback D, allowing Georgia to play in next Saturday’s SEC Championship Game.

 

#9 GEORGIA over #16 Georgia Tech

 

This is the 109^th meeting of Clean, Old Fashioned Hate, and the Bulldogs lead 64-39-5. Out of all the instate rivalry games this week, this one feels like there’s the least at stake, not only this year, but every year. I’m not from Georgia, or in that state, but is there really all that much “hate” between these teams, and these fan bases? Regardless, this game is going to be a physical, pounding football game, with lots and lots of running (Georgia rushes for 260.5 yards a game, 2^nd in the SEC, while Georgia Tech rushes for 327.9 yards, the best in the ACC). I think Georgia has the physicality edge, they’re at home, and they’re just a better team than Tech, and will prove it on Saturday.

 

#3 FLORIDA STATE over Florida

 

As much as I’d love to pick the Gators, I’m not an idiot (at least not most of the time). Though, to be fair, there is a scenario where Florida could beat the ‘Noles. What if they started running the ball early in this game like they did against Georgia, and got out to a big early lead? We know it’s possible, because FSU has sucked in the first half multiple times this season, before rallying to win in the second half. Plus, you’ve got the Muschamp factor. Those players in the Gators’ locker room love that guy (Florida O-lineman D.J. Humphries said he’d be carried off the field if they win on Saturday), and they’d love nothing more than to win his last game, against their hated instate rivals. I don’t think it will happen, because Florida sucks on offense, meaning I’m not sure they’d be able to get out to any sort of lead, but I don’t have much faith in FSU either. This game will be closer than people think, but the Seminoles, like almost every game this season, will find a way to squeak one out late.

 

#4 Mississippi State over #19 Ole Miss

 

Before the Laquon Treadwell injury, I would’ve picked the Rebels to win one of the most important and anticipated Egg Bowls of all time. But since he broke his leg, the Ole Miss offense looks completely different (they were shut out last week at Arkansas). Add in Bo Wallace’s ankle injury, which could really limit him, and I have no idea how the school in Oxford will be able to put enough points on the board to win. And if Mississippi does lose on Saturday, it would drop them to 4-4 in the conference, which would be a great disappointment, considering how crazy and excited those fans were after they won at Texas A&M, and gave Alabama their lone loss of the season. They would’ve had two of the most crushing and soul sucking losses in recent memory (the LSU game, and their back-to-back fumbles red zone fumbles late against Auburn), and it would be a shame that a season that started out so promising ended up being mostly meaningless.

 

And if Mississippi State does win on Saturday, then I think the playoff conversation for anyone else should be over. The flavor of the month right now seems to be Ohio State, who is having a nice close to the season. I don’t care. I’m creating a new rule, right here and now; if you lose a home game by 14 or more points to a team that won’t finish with a winning record (Virginia Tech) at any point during the season, you shouldn’t be considered for the playoff. It’s really that simple. Just go ahead and cross them off right now.

 

#14 WISCONSIN over #18 Minnesota

 

Minnesota’s Jerry Kill should get some national coach of the year recognition for the amount of success he’s had this year. I mean, he’s got the Golden Gophers a win away from the Big 10 Championship Game. I know Michigan is going to want to hire a big name to replace Brady Hoke, but if one of their dream candidates, like Les Miles or Jim Harbaugh tells them no (and I think they will), the Wolverines shouldn’t be upset if they ended up hiring Kill. He’s a cultural fit (his last three coaching jobs were all in the Midwest), and he’s won everywhere he’s been. Minnesota has pretty much sucked every year for the last half century, yet he’s been able to turn them around relatively quickly (they’ve been to two straight bowl games, and are, incredibly, as mentioned before, one win away from the Big 10 Title Game! At Minnesota!)

 

Regardless, I still think Wisconsin is better team, and they’ve got the best running back in the country, Melvin Gordon, who should win the Heisman Trophy. I expect the Badgers, who are at home, to run the ball almost at will (like they did against Nebraska two weeks ago), and win by at least two touchdowns. Plus, YOU DON’T WIN AT CAMP RANDALL (they’ve lost 3 home games the last 5 seasons). It’s that simple. Sorry Gopher fans. It’s been a nice year.

 

#1 ALABAMA over #15 Auburn

 

Last year's game was one of the defining sporting events of my life, one that I will always remember, where I was, who I watched it with, and how I felt at the time. It’s one of the greatest games I’ve ever seen. I love when games like that, with all the build up and importance in the world, deliver in a memorable, improbable, and amazing way. Tennessee’s most improbable win ever was probably the stumble and fumble game in 1998 against Arkansas. I don’t really remember that one, because I was 5, but I know if something like that happened now, I’d probably have a heart attack. And I’d even argue that Auburn’s Kick Six was even more incredible and unbelievable than that one. Games like that one are the reason we as sports fans watch a zillion games throughout our lifetime. We hope to see incredible performances, and amazing victories, and we’ll deal with all the blowouts, because we hope to see something we’ll never forget.

 

But back to Saturday; Auburn’s defense is terrible, and they’ve proven to be phonies this season (like I thought they were). They were torched their last two SEC games by Texas A&M (41 points) and Georgia (34), and they haven’t won a conference game since they caught two huge breaks on those late fumbles against Ole Miss. Alabama has been the best team in the country in the best conference (they average 485 yards per game on offense, 2^nd in the conference, and they allow the fewest yards per game in the conference, 283.5) and I don’t expect that to change this week.

 

Other college games

 

#11 ARIZONA over #13 Arizona State

 

This is more of a “Todd Graham, you’re a snake” pick than anything.

 

#6 OHIO STATE over Michigan

 

Remember when this game used to be competitive, and anticipated every season? I do. The Buckeyes have won 9 of the last 10. I think it’s going to be 10 of the last 11 after Saturday.

 

#5 Tcu over TEXAS

 

As much as I want Texas to win, so the media and playoff committee will stop stupidly putting the Horned Frogs over Baylor in the playoff race, I don’t see it happening. Charlie Strong has had a strong (yes, pun intended) finish to his first season though, as the Longhorns have won 3 straight conference games by at least 17 points. I was a little unsure about him after their early season falters (including a 41-7 loss at home to BYU), but now, I think he’s going to do a great job there. It just won’t materialize this week.

 

Lsu over TEXAS A&M

 

The Tigers have physically overpowered the Aggies the last two seasons, and I think Les Miles just has the match up with the “genius” Kevin Sumlin figured out. Remember that time when everybody was rushing to proclaim the Aggies “the next great dynasty in college football” after their thrashing of South Carolina on the opening Thursday of the season? I hope those people feel real stupid right now, kind of like I feel every week when most of my picks blow up in my face. If Sumlin and the Aggies lose on Thanksgiving night, he’d have back-to-back .500 or below finishes in the SEC, and have a three year conference record of 13-11. Genius? Please.

 

#2 Oregon over OREGON STATE

 

I wish the Beavers would be a worthy opponent for the Ducks this week, but I don’t see it happening.

 

#21 CLEMSON over South Carolina

 

Dabo Swinney has lost 5 straight games to Steve Spurrier, and hasn’t beaten the Gamecocks since he was the interim coach in 2008. Is this the year he gets it done? I don’t feel great about a game any time I pick Clemson, because they’ve burned their fan bases in the most debilitating way about a zillion times, but South Carolina does have one of the worst SEC defenses I’ve ever seen. They can’t lose this one, can they?

 

Tennessee over VANDERBILT

 

Vandy head coach Derek Mason didn’t say the word “Tennessee” throughout his entire Tuesday press conference, instead referring to the Vols as, “that school out east”. I’m not sure why he did this. Maybe it would be cool if the Commodores weren’t 0-7 in the conference, gotten blown out 37-7 by Temple, and beat Charleston Southern by one point. I think Tennessee, despite having a Swiss Cheese offensive line, should be able to take care of business in Nashville this week.

 

NFL

 

All of the Thanksgiving games are awesome, and have playoff implications. Let’s run through them.

 

LIONS over Bears

 

Chicago, despite probably having the worst defense in Bears history, is somehow still alive for the playoffs at 5-6. They didn’t win a home game until Week 11! That defense should help the suddenly putrid Lions’ offense, which secretly hasn’t scored more than 24 points in a game since Week 1. Calvin Johnson has had some injuries, but he’s also had a strangely bad year (in 8 games, Megatron has just 38 catches for 578 yards and 3 TDs). If he’s ever going to figure it out this season, it has to be this week, against the Bears’ embarrassment of a defense. Even if they don’t, Detroit’s defense is good enough to win the game for them. You also can’t discount the Jay Cutler factor. He’s good for at least two horrible picks tomorrow right?

 

COWBOYS over Eagles

 

Philly ranks 16^th in rush yards allowed per game, though it is interesting to see how much their defense has struggled since Demeco Ryans went out for the year, and how tired they’ve looked as the season has gone on. Dallas hasn’t been able to pound the ball quite like they were earlier in the season, but if they can establish the run even 90% as well as they were able to in Weeks 1-7 (and I think they can), then they should win tomorrow. The biggest concern for Dallas will be the lack of rest they’ll get. They played on Sunday night last week, follow that up with the game tomorrow, and then play next Thursday against the Bears (who are in the same boat). That’s 3 games in 12 days, which sounds brutal, and probably not good for your body. But wait, I thought the NFL cared about player safety? Whoops.

 

49ERS over Seahawks

 

This might be my favorite NFL game of the week. Both of these offenses are extremely limited (San Fran has only scored more than 30 points in one game this season, and Seattle’s done it twice), but have physical, punch-you-in-the-mouth defenses. I could easily see this game being 13-10 or 10-7, and I’d love to see that. There’s just not enough defensive slugfests anymore, and sometimes, there’s nothing wrong with seeing a hard hitting game that really challenges the offense. I’m siding with the Niners simply because Seattle just played an extremely physical game against the Cardinals, in which Russell Wilson took shot after shot the entire game, coupled with multiple violent collisions between Seahawk and Cardinal players. I’m just not sure their bodies have had enough time to heal.

 

Now, onto the Sunday games…..

 

COLTS over Redskins

 

Remember that time when “Luck vs. RG3” was an argument? That seems like an eternity ago. Now, Colt McCoy is starting, and Griffin might be done in Washington. The most damning comments about RG3? On the Michael Kay Show last week, Steve Young said, “I’ve talked to his previous coaches, people I really trust and admire, that know quarterbacks. He doesn’t put the time in”. Ouch.

 

TEXANS over Titans

 

Please watch this video. That’s all you need to know about this game.

 

Browns over BILLS

 

Josh Gordon is back for Cleveland, and he made his presence felt almost immediately (8 catches, 120 yards last week against Atlanta). He completely changes everything for them on offense, and he may even help Brian Hoyer look like a semicompetent quarterback again (though he did throw 3 picks on Sunday). It’s been a nice year Buffalo, but I think the run will be over on Sunday. Don’t worry, Cleveland’s will be at some point as well, and both of you guys can return to being the same old, irrelevant franchises you’ve been throughout most of your history.

 

Chargers over RAVENS

 

This one is probably a “Lose, and you’re out” game, particularly for San Diego, who has a brutal remaining schedule. The last time the Bolts flew across the country to play a 1 o’clock game, it was in Miami, and they lost 37-0. Sheesh. I’m also worried because the Chargers just put their 3^rd different center on IR this season. I was going to say that the Ravens haven’t beaten a good team since Week 2, but then I remembered that San Diego hasn’t either. This pick is mostly about me just defiantly sticking by my preseason Super Bowl pick. Plus, I do think there’s a really good team somewhere in the the Chargers' locker room. They’ve just had so many injuries. They did impress me with their victory on Sunday against the feisty Rams. Have they finally turned the corner? We’ll see.

 

Giants over JAGUARS

 

I’m going to put Odell Beckham Jr.’s catch right here for you, just in case you were living under a rock somewhere and missed it, because that’s the best catch I’ve ever seen. I mean…. Wow. Beckham’s potential to make catches like that is really the only reason anyone should watch this game. Also, on a side note, I think this is going to be Tom Coughlin’s last year New York. Including this season, the G-Men will have only been to the playoffs one time in the last six seasons. I think he’s a great coach, but it might just be time for a different voice in that locker room.

 

Bengals over BUCCANEERS

 

Could Andy Dlaton find a way to blow this one? There’s no way right? It’s Tampa Bay! And how in the world are the hapless, 2-9 Bucs, only two games out of first place in the NFC South? Thank you, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Carolina, for helping to create the worst division in the history of the NFL.

 

RAMS over Raiders

 

St. Louis is so close. They’ve got one of the best head coaches in the NFL in Jeff Fisher, a physical, stout defense, and some nice skill position players. They’ve just got to find the right guy at the quarterback position, and I’m don’t think he is on the roster.

 

STEELERS over Saints

 

New Orleans is done a legitimate contender, and I have less faith in them this week than anyone. They are no longer dynamite in home games (they’ve lost 3 in the Superdome this season), and they’ve never been great in outdoor, weather affected games. The forecast for Pittsburgh on Sunday? Low 50s, and rainy. Good luck. Then again, it’s not like this loss will hurt them. Atlanta’s not winning this week either.

 

VIKINGS over Panthers

 

I created a rule for my self this season; if a team from the NFC South is playing a game outside the division, I always pick the team they’re playing. It’s worked pretty well for me so far.

 

Cardinals over FALCONS

 

Atlanta doesn’t get the East Coast, 1 o’clock Eastern Time, game against a team flying across the country from the West Coast, as the league scheduled this one for 4:05. So that hurts. Plus, I forgot to mention (and probably should’ve said this first) that the Falcons suck! So there’s that.

 

PACKERS over Patriots

 

The New England thrashing/annihilating of the entire NFL will come to an end this week in Lambeau Field. If this game was in Foxborough, I would’ve picked the Pats. It’s so rare in the NFL that we get a regular season meeting of the two hottest teams in each conference, and it’s funny how everybody counted both of these teams out early in the season (I know I did with the Packers), only to look incredibly stupid when they started destroying everyone week after week. The media is going to spin this one as a “Rodgers vs. Brady” game, but there’s so much more to it than that. Green Bay got really inventive on the defensive end when they started putting Clay Mathews in the middle to help against the run, and the results have been really impressive, except for last week. In the two weeks following that change, Green Bay held Chicago to 55 yards rushing, and Philly to just 109 on 31 carries, or just 3.5 yards per rush. They gave up 155 on the ground last week against Minnesota, which isn’t great, but they’re probably never going to be elite against the rush at any point this season. Mathews at least makes them decent in that category, which might be good enough. At least they won’t get gashed to quite the degree by Jonas Gray the way Indianapolis was two weeks ago. Then again, I do expect this to be a high scoring affair, with Green Bay coming out victorious because they’ve got better offensive weapons, and the league MVP in Rodgers, who has somehow quietly had a great season (30 TDs, 3 picks, almost 3000 yards passing with 5 games left).

 

Broncos over CHIEFS

 

I love how Denver rallied on Sunday at home against Miami, when their whole season was teetering on the edge of a knife. They took all the early body blows that the Dolphins could throw, and still stood on their feet. They were down 28-17 late in the 3^rd quarter, but were able to turn it on in the 4^th and score 22 points, while holding Miami scoreless in the quarter until the 1:34 mark. They, for the first time since the San Diego game in Week 8, showed that edge and unconquerable will they had in the first half of the season. Contrast that with Kansas City, who probably just played their worst game of the season, losing to the laughably bad Raiders. Granted, Kansas City had been playing really good football (they’d won 7 of 8), and Oakland was bound to win a game at some point. The most disheartening thing for the Chiefs was how the Raiders literally did everything they could to lose the game on K.C.’s final drive, only they somehow couldn’t capitalize. Still, Kansas City, despite that embarrassement, should still be a factor in the playoff race the last 5 weeks. But if Denver is back to being the Bronco team from the beginning of the season (and I think they are) they should win this game on Sunday night.

 

Dolphins over JETS

 

Finally, the Monday Night Game. Can this Jets’ season please be over? You’ve tortured us enough.

 

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Before I go, I just want to take this time to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving. This is my favorite holiday of the year, because there’s not a better day for eating than this one. It’s the only time the entire year that I feel fine about stuffing my face until I can no longer physically hold down anymore food. So enjoy tomorrow, and have fun over the long weekend (those of you that get one). You deserve it.

The Week In Football: Tennessee Loses, And The AFC Is Loaded; Plus, What Should Tennessee Do With Lil Jon?

 

On Saturday night, for the first time since the Josh Dobbs era began on October 25^th against Alabama, Tennessee fans left a game feeling disappointed. Yes, of course I was unhappy about another loss to the Crimson Tide, but I was also excited, because I believed the Vols had found their QB of the future. And nothing has changed that. If anything, the power of Dobbs got us to believe that Tennessee was in every game again, and that there was no opponent that would completely overmatch the Vols. I heard a bunch of analysts and media pundits picking Tennessee this week, and they were even favored by three points against a team that was in first place in the East. Clearly, people thought the Vols were back, or at least legitimate again.

 

And that’s what made the loss so devastating. I’ve grown accustomed to Tennessee defeats over the years, though most of them leave me feeling one of two ways: either the Vols would get blown out by a superior opponent, leaving me thinking, “Oh my gosh, they suck, and they’re never going to contend for anything meaningful ever again”; or they’d be in a close game against a better team, scratching and clawing and fighting the entire time, looking like they might be able to squeak one out at the last moment, only to whiff so badly at the end (13 men on the field at LSU) that it almost made me laugh, before I realized how depressing it was that this was actually the team I rooted for.

 

Regardless of how those games ended, I always went into them thinking that they’d lose, or that it was going to be really tough for them to pull it out. But not on Saturday night. I expected the Vols to come out, execute in all phases of the game, squeeze the life out of the Missouri offense, and above all, win. There’s no worse feeling than losing a game you expect to win, and it sucks even more when you play the way they did. Dobbs was the worst he’d been since his miraculous rise (24-37, 195 yards, 1 TD, 1 pick, and only 13 rushing yards on 17 carries), and the offensive line returned to being the one that had tortured Vol fans all year (it seemed like Missouri defensive end Shane Ray was in the backfield the entire game).

 

We as Vol fans were so excited about the Dobbs era beginning that we ignored almost all the problems this team still had, or created for themselves. Not having A.J. Johnson because of his involvement in a rape investigation hurt them, as well as Brian Randolph’s first half suspension for the targeting penalty he got last week against Kentucky. Plus, the Tigers had the best defensive line by far of anyone the Vols have faced since Dobbs began starting, and the O-line just wasn’t up for it. They’re going to have to get significantly better up front if they’re going to contend in the SEC East next season. And then there’s the Butch factor. As much as I like him as a person, and think he’s done some great things down in Knoxville, I still have concerns about his clock management, decision making in crisis, and his overly conservative approach in almost all of their games. Case and point, it was a terrible decision to challenge that illegal touching penalty on the onside kick at the end of the game. The ball clearly didn’t go 10 yards, and losing that challenge cost the Vols a valuable timeout, one that they could’ve used to stop the clock and help them get the ball back. Yeah, they wouldn’t have had much time left had they been able to force a Missouri punt on that possession, but that challenged killed any chance of a miracle happening. And it’s not like they haven’t had an improbable victory this season. Remember the South Carolina game?

 

Who wants to hold the single game rushing record?

 

Last week, the Wisconsin Badgers’ Melvin Gordon obliterated the Nebraska defense for record an NCAA record 408 rushing yards. Really impressive right? Well this week, Oklahoma freshman Samaje Perine amazingly rushed for 427 yards against Kansas. How does that even happen? And how do you feel if you’re a defensive player for the Jayhawks? Perine had 34 carries, good for 12.6 yards per carry. These cartoonish rushing numbers, accomplished in a pass happy, all offense college football, speak more to the lack of defense today than anything. Don’t get me wrong, Gordon and Perine are both great players, but when you rush for over 400 yards in a game by yourself, it has a lot to do with the fact that the team you just went against played defense like a revolving door. There are only two teams that haven’t gotten torched by an opposing offense, Alabama and Mississippi State. Everybody else has had at least one stinker of a game on defense, and some teams (like Texas A&M and South Carolina) have had multiple. Kansas has been awful on D all year. They’ve given up 30 or more points 6 times this season, and the only teams they’ve held below 20 are Central Michigan and Iowa State. Obviously, you wouldn’t expect them to give up 400-plus yards rushing to one person, but it’s not completely shocking right?

 

How good is Arkansas?

 

Over the last 3 games (at the time, #1 Mississippi State, #17 LSU, and #8 Ole Miss), the Razorbacks have only allowed 17 points, and they’ve pitched back-to-back shutouts against the Tigers and Rebels. They completely overwhelmed and dominated those last two opponents for the entire game, particularly Ole Miss (they forced six turnovers against Ole Miss, held Bo Wallace to a 51.6 completion percentage, and swallowed up the Rebels rushing attack, holding them to 63 yards). Plus, they threw a pick in the end zone against Mississippi State late as they were driving for the tying touchdown. Throw in their one point loss to Alabama, and I’m not sure there’s been a more overlooked solid team this season than them (in fact, they were so overlooked that I wrote things like “Arkansas is Arkansas” and that Ole Miss was better at both better quarterback and on defense on Friday. Whoops. The lesson, as always; I’m an idiot). Bret Bielema’s coaching tenure got off to a terrible start (he lost his first 13 SEC games), but it appears that he’s starting to get some of his type of players down there, and they’re implementing the type of style he wants to play. I’m interested to see what kind of game they’ll give Missouri on the road this week, as well as how they’ll look next season, the pivotal and always-important Year 3 for Bielema.

 

My 4 Team Playoff

 

1. Alabama. We literally learned nothing about the Tide this week, as they beat up on Western Carolina, who was more overmatched than your character was in Punch-Out when he had to face Mike Tyson. This week is the Iron Bowl, at home against Auburn, or, in other words, the most consistently redneck week in the state of Alabama. It inspires dumb Alabamans to become even dumber (who knew that was even possible?), call Paul Finebaum's radio show and yell like children, and poison hundred year old trees at Toomer’s corner. What a terrible week for anyone who has sense and can think rationally down there. I’m sorry, I really am.
2.  Oregon. The Ducks blasted Colorado this week, and they haven’t played a close game since their lone loss of the season on October 2^nd against Arizona. They and Alabama are the two best teams in the country right now, and I expect them to win their semifinal games and meet in the national title game, at least right now. Then again, both teams still have to play rivalry games (Auburn and Oregon State), and they’ll both have to win their conference championship games to even get there. A lot of crazy stuff can happen between now and the time the playoff committee puts out their final rankings in two weeks.
3.  Mississippi State. I bumped the Bulldogs over Florida State because of the Seminoles horrible play this week, this time against Boston College, though I realize it’s probably unreasonable to expect the committee to do the same thing. If Alabama knocks off Auburn this week (and I think they will), then the Egg Bowl on Saturday at Ole Miss will be the Bulldogs last game of the regular season. Will it be enough for the committee to keep them in? Or will one of the “co-conference champions” in the Big 12, Baylor and TCU, jump them, assuming all three of them win out? I hope they won’t, and I don’t think they should. I’d argue Miss State has a way more impressive resume than either of those schools. They have one loss in the best conference and division in the country, and that loss was on the road, at Alabama (the best team in college football), by 5 points, even though they out-gained them. Conversely, TCU blew a 21 point 4^th quarter lead to Baylor, and the Bears looked horrible in their loss on the road at West Virginia (the “scary” Baylor offense gave up 4 sacks and only scored 7 points after halftime).
4. Florida State. I’m tired of the Seminoles getting by week after week against mediocre to crappy competition. They clearly aren’t one of the four best teams in the country, but because they always finish each Saturday victorious, they won’t (and probably shouldn’t) be dropped out of the committee’s top 4. They still are in one of the Power 5 conferences (the ACC), and they’ve showed more resiliency than almost anyone (they have 5 wins by 6 points or less). And as much as I don’t like it, they’ll more than likely be there at the end of the season. Florida probably won’t be able to give them much of a challenge (they can’t score), and I’m not sure how good their opponent in ACC Championship Game, Georgia Tech, really is.

 

I’d rank Baylor 5^th, TCU 6^th, and Ohio State 7^th. And honestly, I think those 7 teams are really the only ones with a shot to make the playoffs. I don’t see 4 of these teams losing in the next two weeks, and I can’t see the committee putting a two loss Georgia, Missouri (assuming they win the SEC Championship Game), or UCLA (assuming they win the Pac 12 Championship Game) in over any one loss team. Then again, that’s just my feeling. I have no idea what the committee will do, because there really isn’t any precedent yet, as this is the first year of all of this. How much will they value a team being a conference champion? Do they care if the SEC (the best conference) is represented? I have no idea. We’ll have to see how it plays out.

 

Now, onto the NFL….

 

San Diego stays alive for another week

 

The Chargers (my preseason AFC Champion) won on Sunday afternoon, ensuring that their season will live on for another week. They couldn’t have afforded to drop to 6-5, particularly with how tough the AFC is right now. Here are the records of all the teams in the playoff hunt:

 

New England: 9-2

Denver: 8-3

Cincinnati: 7-3-1

Indianapolis: 7-4

Pittsburgh: 7-4

Kansas City: 7-4

San Diego: 7-4

Cleveland:7-4

Baltimore: 6-4 (they could get their 7^th win tonight in New Orleans)

Miami: 6-5

 

That’s 10 teams still very much alive with only 5 weeks left! Only six can make it. Miami, who is a really good team that blanked the Chargers 37-0 in Week 9, might be done right now after losing their fifth game yesterday in Denver. Look how many teams they have to climb over! And how about the AFC North? All 4 teams could have seven wins after tonight, and everyone still has at least two division games left.

 

I’m going to go ahead and pencil in New England in the AFC East and Indianapolis in the AFC South. That leaves us with 8 teams fighting for four spots. I think the Broncos will win the West, though they do have 3 tough road games remaining (at Kansas City, at San Diego, and at Cincinnati). The North is wide open, but if you held a gun to my head, I’d take Pittsburgh to win the division. They just got to rest up this week because of their bye week, and the schedule breaks nicely for them. They host New Orleans this week (the Saints suck outdoors, and I’m sure it will be cold outside in Pittsburgh), followed by back-to-back road games at Cincinnati and at Atlanta. There’s no reason they shouldn’t be at least 2-1 in those games. They’ll then finish with home games against Kansas City and Cincinnati. Again, not horrible. They get to face the “we hate outdoor games” Saints, the inept Falcons, Andy Dalton twice, and the King of Clock Mismanagement, Andy Reid, and his sidekick, quarterback Alex Smith. I have no faith in Cleveland and Brian Hoyer, because they’re the Browns and haven’t won a championship in 50 years for a reason. And I think Ravens will lose this upcoming week at home against San Diego, and ultimately falter either because they secretly aren’t that good (there best win was over the Steelers, in Baltimore, in Week 2) or they won’t have any of the tiebreakers in their favor (Cincy beat them twice). The Bolts have a brutal schedule left (at Baltimore, home against New England and Denver, and at San Fran and Kansas City), but because I’m tremendous homer and a guy that sticks by his predictions until I look like an idiot, I’ll roll with the Chargers to somehow sneak in the playoffs. It’s not a crazy pick right? Baltimore is overrated; Denver seems to have lost their physical edge on defense, they can’t consistently pass block, and they can’t (or won’t) run the ball; and San Francisco secretly hasn’t played a good game on offense almost all year, as they’ve only scored 30 or more points in a game once this season. As far as the other playoff spot, I think it’s going to be….. the Bengals. And even typing that makes me uncomfortable. Do I really have to bet on Andy Dalton? They’ve got a great roster, but I just don’t trust the Carrot Top look-alike/wannabe they’ve got playing quarterback for them. His debacle against Cleveland this season will forever be burned in my mind. And even if they do make the playoffs, I think they’ll be one and done, just like they were the last 3 years.

 

Seattle also survives to fight on… for another week

 

Their victory yesterday against Arizona was the most Seahawk-like game they’ve played since Week 1 against Green Bay. Seattle ran for 124 yards, while holding Arizona to just 64 on the ground, and also controlled the ball for more than 35 minutes. They sacked Drew Stanton seven times, and the Legion of Boom actually looked like that great and frightening secondary we thought they were. They, also like the Chargers, couldn’t have afforded to drop to 6-5, because the NFC is also challenging. If the playoffs began today, both Detroit (who was the two seed just two weeks ago) and San Francisco would be out. This Thursday’s game in San Francisco is probably the second most important Niners-‘Hawks game ever (after last year’s NFC Championship Game), because the loser would be 7-5, down a game to the winner, and out of the playoffs with four weeks left. Are the old Seahawks back? It’s hard to say. It’s only been one game, this is the same team that got gashed on the ground in Kansas City eight days ago, and this is the most limited they’ve been offensively since Pete Carroll got there. Regardless, I can’t wait for that slugfest on Thursday night. But more on that game on Wednesday.

 

Finally, my Angry Old Man. He’ll probably be upset that he was relegated to the bottom of the page this week, but he’ll figure out how to make it work. Plus, it’s not like he hasn’t been dealing with things he doesn’t like (anyone under the age of 50) for the last decade. He’s used to it. Anyway, he was riled up by a column written by John Adams of the Knoxville News Sentinel, which encouraged the Vols to say goodbye to “3^rd Down For What?” and rapper Lil Jon, because of his explicit lyrics. His words, “I’m a Butch Jones fan, but he shouldn’t be embracing all that rap crap you and your idiot friends like (just for the record, I think the song ‘Turn Down For What’ is a hot piece of garbage. What does that even mean?), particularly if he advocates raping women in his other songs, like his newest piece of art, ‘Literally I Can’t’. I have a problem with that personally, and I don’t like the team I root for embracing him all that garbage, because it’s wrong. Plus, they do have two football players involved in a rape investigation! Get that clown out of there!”.

 

I do think it’s interesting that people embrace, listen to, and even purchase this type of music. Because if you listen to most rap music nowadays, women are objectified as objects that are only on earth for male sexual pleasure. And how does Chris Brown still have a career? He punched Rihanna right in the face, and then acted like an idiot when he was asked about it by Robin Roberts. As far as I can tell, he’s never shown all that much remorse for it, and actually mostly just made excuses as to why it happened. Now he’s releasing songs with lyrics like “these hoes ain’t loyal”, which people are listening to like it’s going out of style (the video has more than 180 million views on Youtube).

 

Why are we as a society fine with musicians saying whatever they want? If I went around, publicly announcing, “these hoes ain’t loyal” or calling women the “b” word, I’d be skewered by the media (and I probably should be). But if I put music to those words, suddenly it’s “art” and it’s no big deal. There has to be some line where it’s no longer “art” right?

 

And just for the record, I don’t necessarily think there’s anything wrong with cuss words, or suggestive themes in songs or movies or television shows. How does the musician, or artist, or actor feel about what he is saying? How is he/she being portrayed? Are we glorifying rape and violence against women, children, and the innocent? Sometimes those things can be a theme, but the lifestyle isn’t exactly being celebrated. When I listen to a song like “Loyal” or “Literally I Can’t”, rape, the objectification of women as sexual objects, and the “B***h, shut the F Up” culture are glorified and perpetuated. Contrast that with a Tupac song like “Life Goes On”, or “Wonder Why They Call U B***h”, and while themes like gang violence, going to prison, disrespect of women, and murder are discussed, they aren’t being given the thumbs up. If anything, they have a somber, reflective, sad tone. They recognize the importance of human life, and how heartbreaking it is when that life is mistreated, wasted, or ended. To me, that’s how rappers should be, telling stories about their lives and what they saw, advocating changes in their communities, and dismissing the ideas that the “gangsta” lifestyle is awesome, and that having sex with whoever you want whenever you want, regardless if they’re willing, is ok.

 

So back to Lil Jon. Simply because Tennessee has two players involved in a rape investigation, I’d be fine with the program disassociating themselves with him. I don’t think his lyrics caused A.J. Johnson and Michael Williams to do anything nefarious, as was suggested by some fool that called Paul Finebaum’s show this week, but I’m also not sure he’s a great a guy to be involved with the Vol program right now, particularly with his lyrics, and the serious allegations against two players. My Angry Old Man thinks this is a black eye for Butch Jones, and that this will hurt recruiting, because other SEC coaches could tell recruit’s moms that Tennessee, Lil Jon, and pro-rape lyrics go hand in hand. I don’t think it would be all that much of an advantage, but that’s just me. I think people are selectively offended by things, and music is one of those things that just doesn’t bother them. That’s why I think it’s up to us as good people to stand up and say, “Wait a second, we can’t be ok with these lyrics, and these themes talked about in a positive way. It harms our communities, and tells men that women are only as good as the sex they can give us”. Do you feel great about, “B***h, I don’t wanna hear no from you” being spun in a positive light? I know I certainly don’t.