My 2014-15 College Basketball Preview, Plus Early NBA Season Thoughts

The college basketball season officially tips off tomorrow, so, in celebration of that, I thought I’d run through a few of the highlights coming into the season….

 

Kentucky and their superstar freshmen are preseason number 1

 

Isn’t that a familiar sentence? Last year, the Wildcats, on the strength of “The Greatest Recruiting Class since the Fab Five” were also ranked number 1 coming into the season. However, it was an up and down season from the start, as Kentucky didn’t beat a ranked team all year, and had some puzzling defeats, including a loss at LSU, at South Carolina, and two defeats against Arkansas. After losing the SEC Tournament Championship Game to Florida, the selection committee slotted the Wildcats as an eight seed in the Midwest Region. Suddenly, something flipped for this team. After dispatching Kansas State in their first game, Kentucky improbably won 4 straight games against what would’ve been considered superior competition. They knocked off previously undefeated Wichita State in the next round, handed Rick Pitino his first ever loss in the Sweet Sixteen, as they beat Louisville in the Sweet Sixteen, ended Michigan’s season in the Elite Eight, and barely beat Wisconsin in the Final Four, before losing to one of the most surprising champions in NCAA Tournament history, Connecticut. Despite this, it was still a magical run for the Wildcats. They benefited from huge, game winning Aaron Harrison three pointers at the end of three tournament games, and got, in my opinion, the best coaching performance of John Calipari’s career. It’s no secret that I’m not a fan of Coach Cal (he will/has been a frequent target of mine in this space). He reminds me of a sketchy car/insurance salesman, someone who is always putting out a false, coldly concocted and controlled image of himself to the public. But not even I can deny that he’s a great basketball coach. Last year, Calipari became one of six coaches to take a program to three Final Fours in his first five years at the school, joining Harry Combes, Fred Taylor, Ed Jucker, Steve Fisher, and Ben Howland. Only Fisher, Howland, and Calipari have accomplished this feat with the modern, 64-68 tournament field, though Fisher had his ’92 and ’93 Final Four appearances vacated because Chris Webber took money while at Michigan. But the fact that he was able to take this team, one that relied heavily on five freshman, who had all struggled at various times throughout the season, (seriously, the Harrison twins were absolutely abysmal for almost all of last season, before they started to light it up in the tournament) to get their act together, start playing as one unit, and fully maximize their skills and abilities, is one of the most impressive coaching performances of my lifetime. And somewhere along the way, Calipari won me over, though I still trust “The Boy Who Cried Wolf” a million times more than I trust Cal.

 

As always, Calipari did an excellent job recruiting, but I’m actually more impressed with what they brought back. They did lose freshman stars Julius Randle and James Young, but both Harrison twins have returned, and if their strong play in the tournament is any indication, they should only get better this season. They also bring back Willie Cauley-Stein, a great defender/rim protector, and Alex Poythress, an up and down junior who finally showed flashes of being the player he was recruited to be. It’s been no secret that Coach Cal and Poythress haven’t exactly seen eye-to-eye since he committed to Kentucky. In fact, it wouldn’t be THAT much of a stretch to say that Poythress has spent more time in Calipari’s dog house than his own dog the last two seasons. But if he can keep his head on straight, and recapture some of that magic he showed at the end of last year, he could really make an impact for this team. I think the Wildcats will rip through the SEC this season, and they may only lose two or three games in the regular season. If they aren’t a number 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, then they had a disappointing regular season.

 

Kansas reloads better than any program in the country

 

As long as Bill Self is the coach at Kansas, I’ll go ahead and pencil them in as the Big 12 champions. It almost doesn’t matter who they lose year-to-year (and it’s a lot of guys, because college basketball has more roster turnover every season than all other sports combined), because they always seem to just fill in the gaps with another equally capable player. They’ve either won the regular season or conference tournament every season since Self’s second year (he’s been there 11 years). I’m not even worried that they lost Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid, their two best players from last year’s team, because I know Wayne Selden and Perry Ellis and a host of other guys will be able to step up and fill that void. It happens every single year in Lawrence, and I expect it to happen again. They’ll have a great regular season and get either a 1 or 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. But that’s where Self’s trouble has been. In his 11 years at Kansas, he’s lost 4 tournament games to double digit seeds (including last year), one to a number 9 seed, and blew a 14 point lead in the final minutes to Michigan in 2013. It’s not like he’s stunk in the tournament (he won a national title in 2008, and lost in the championship game in 2012), it’s just that the Jayhawks haven’t exactly been reliable in the tournament. That’s the only question I really have with this team.

 

It’s all about Jahlil

 

Duke freshman Jahlil Okafor is a monster, and he was the only newcomer to the college game to be selected to the preseason All American team. He’s going to be extremely important for the Blue Devils if they want to go anywhere this season, because this is one of the weaker Duke rosters in recent memory. Rasheed Sulaimon, Amile Jefferson, and Quinn Cook are their best returning guys? I think they’re all solid basketball players, but I’m not sure they can win a title if they have to rely on those guys to be extremely important players for them. They have two other potential superstars in freshman Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow, but I hate relying on freshman-dominated teams. Only one has ever won a national title, 2012 Kentucky, and most of them end up finishing closer to the disappointing 2013 Wildcats than the group led by Anthony Davis. In all honesty, I actually like North Carolina in the ACC. They’ve got the best point guard in the nation in junior Marcus Paige. They’ll only start one freshman, and they return some good players from last year’s team, like Brice Johnson and J.P. Tokoto.

 

It’s going to be a long year on Rocky Top

 

This will probably be the Vols worst team since Buzz Peterson was on the sidelines in Thompson-Boling Arena. If Josh Richardson is your best returning player, you’re probably destined for a 11^th place finish in conference. And that might be generous. They’ve got no size (Armani Moore will start at power forward), and Donnie Tyndall hinted in late September that they’d be starting Kevin Punter, Devin Baulkman, and Willie Carmichael, names even the most devout Vol fans have never heard of. I’m interested to see how Robert Hubbs III (a Cuonzo Martin five star signing who had his freshman season ended by a shoulder injury), Memphis transfer Dominic Woodson, and four star late signee Detrick Mostella play this season, but I’m not crazy or delusional enough to expect them to be saviors for the program this year. It’s going to be a tough year in Knoxville, and I don’t expect this team to be a serious NCAA Tournament threat.

 

Your 2015 NCAA Tournament Champions will be……

 

The Wisconsin Badgers. My Angry Old Man might have a heart attack reading this, because while I made fun of Badger center Frank Kaminsky for almost the entire tournament, he staunchly and ardently defended him, before it eventually devolved into him gargling a bunch of nothing. What can I say? Kaminsky looks like the type of guy that would sit in his parent’s basement all day playing World of Warcraft and downing Dr. Pepper’s. Look at this picture!

He’s just goofy, and that’s why it took me a while to be a believer in Frank the Tank. I was even shocked when ESPN ranked him as the best player in college basketball in the preseason, before I remembered just how good he was in last year’s NCAA Tournament. He was unguardable and unstoppable in the Elite Eight against Arizona (he finished the game with 28 points and 11 rebounds), and was the number 1 reason they played in the Final Four. They’re one of the most experienced teams in the country, as they return 4 starters, including 3 seniors (Kaminsky, Josh Gasser, and Traevon Jackson), a talented junior (Sam Dekker), and the uber athletic sophomore Nigel Hayes. It’s the best starting lineup in the country, and this experienced group will carry Wisconsin to their first national title since 1941.

 

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We’re two weeks into the NBA season, and while I don’t like to make sweeping declarations about the association until we’re about 20-25 games in, a few things have happened since the opening Tuesday that I feel the need to touch on.

 

KEEP FIRING ‘EM UP KOBE!

 

Bryant has been putting up shots at an alarming and extremely inefficient rate this season, as he’s shooting 38.8% from the floor on 24.5 field goal attempts a game. Here’s his game by game shooting performances:

 

Game 1: 6-17 from the floor, 35.3% shooting, 19 points

Game 2: 11-25, 44%, 31 points

Game 3: 6-15, 40%, 21 points

Game 4: 12-28, 42.9%, 28 points

Game 5: 14-37, 37.8%, 39 points

Game 6: 7-20, 35%, 21 points

Game 7: 10-26, 38.5%, 28 points

Game 8: 10-28, 35.7%, 33 points

 

He’s chipped a lot of paint off the rim this season. 44% is his best shooting percentage in a game this year? That may be one of the main reasons why the Lakers are an abysmal 1-7. Obviously, they have a terrible roster, but it doesn’t help when your 36 year old two guard decides to break the offense on multiple occasions throughout the game and start putting up as many shots as he pleases.

 

One more Kobe tangent: on Tuesday, Bryant surpassed John Havlicek as the all time leader in missed shots in NBA history. I thought it was curious that many media pundits raced to defend Kobe. Honestly, I don’t really think it’s that big of a deal. Anybody that’s watched basketball for Bryant’s entire career knows he’s a gunner, and someone who will go down shooting in every single night. It makes sense that the Black Mamba, an almost indestructible athlete that’s played with so many ailments over the years (broken finger, torn wrist ligament, multiple knee issues that he had to fly over to Germany to solve) who also happens to have a propensity to put up as many shots as humanly possible, would break this record. He’s played 18 years and been given free reign to shoot as many times as he wants. We shouldn’t be shocked that this happened. In fact, I think this record perfectly captures Kobe’s career; a volume scorer who was just good enough at putting the ball in the basket to justify all of his misses.

 

Derrick Rose alienates the entire city of Chicago

 

Rose’s comments about sitting out because he didn’t want to be sore when he was older were understandable, yet also a little concerning at the same time. Just as a basketball fan, I don’t really care if he’s out there gutting it out every night right now, because it’s November, and these games largely don’t mean all that much. I’d much rather him be healthy and flying around in April and May than now. Then again, I can certainly understand why Chicagoans would be upset. That’s a tough, gritty city, and a lot of people in their 30’s, 40’s, 50’s, and beyond, who never played professional sports, wake up in that city sore every day. Heck, I’m 21, and sometimes I wake up feeling discomfort somewhere. It happens to almost everyone. Plus, a ton of people in that city are dropping hundreds or thousands of dollars every year on Bulls’ tickets, only to hear that Rose won’t be playing because he doesn’t want to be sore when he goes to his children’s high school graduation. Add in the fact that the city has two terrible baseball teams, and a football team that plays worse defense than any other Bear team has before, and that Rose is making more than 18 million dollars this year, and I understand the city-wide frustration. I really do. Rose’s biggest problem was that he was TOO honest. Obviously, telling the truth is really important, but sometimes, holding back some details isn’t the worst thing in the world. You may not want to be sore when your older, but you can’t say that, because those words are so contrary to the character and image of Chicago, and frankly, the character and image of the team he plays for. That’s a physical, defense-first team that includes players like Joakim Noah, who played with the extremely painful plantar fasciitis all of last season and never really complained about it. Regardless, I hope Rose is able to get healthy, and find his way back on to the court full-time once again. Because the NBA is better when it’s full of athletes like him.

 

The Greatest Draft Class in the History of the NBA?

 

Early returns haven’t been as great as projected on this class, particularly at the top. Andrew Wiggins is averaging 10 points and 3.1 rebounds on 43.8% shooting, while Jabari Parker is averaging a slightly better 10.9 points and 5.9 rebounds on 41.9% shooting. Not a great start for these two, though we are only two weeks into the season. I haven’t been able to watch as much of Jabari as I would like, but I did watch almost all of the Rockets-T’Wolves game last night. Athletically, Wiggins looks like he belongs on the court, and defensively he’s going to be fine. But it’s still a nightmare to see him on the offensive end. Originally, I thought he was cut from the Ben McLemore/young Rudy Gay mold, an extremely talented basketball player who could spend entire stretches of the game just drifting, not touching the basketball or do anything noteworthy. But after watching him the first two weeks, he just looks like he doesn’t know what to do on the offensive end. He can’t create a shot for himself, and he doesn’t do a good job of moving when he’s off the basketball. He doesn’t have a consistent jump shot, and when he does dribble, it doesn’t go anywhere. Wiggins won’t be able to get by on athleticism alone anymore. I’m more worried than ever that he’ll end up becoming a more athletic Tony Allen, one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, as well as a guy who couldn’t make a 20 footer if his life depended on it, and someone who will never sniff an All Star team. Then again, it is early, and Wiggins is just 19. He’s got a whole career ahead of him.

The Week in Football: Auburn's luck ran out, Alabama wins in Tiger Stadium, and the Niners save their season

 

 

It was, like always, a great football weekend. In fact, the most enjoyable thing about it was the Auburn loss. You know, Auburn, the program that’s caught more breaks than anyone the last 5 years? On Saturday though, it appeared that, finally, the Tigers’ luck had run out. Texas A&M blocked a field goal and returned it for a touchdown on the last play of the first half, and they were also gift-wrapped two Auburn fumbles in the last 2:37 of the game. Last week I wrote that I was tired of their luck, and that I was going to root against them in every game for the rest of eternity. So to say I was “happy” about them Clemsoning a winnable game against a mediocre team would be more of an understatement than saying Honey Boo Boo was an annoying television program. This was the most overjoyed I could be on a Saturday that didn’t involve a Tennessee victory.

 

Alabama and Mississippi State are head and shoulders above every other team

 

Why? They have two things, unique only to them, that have happened this season:

 

1. Both teams have won night games in Tiger Stadium
2. Neither defense has been completely torched and stomped on by an opposing offense

 

I can’t state strongly enough just how impressive both those things are. There isn’t a venue in college football that’s harder to play at then night in Death Valley, and both teams escaped victorious. Les Miles only had two losses in home night games at LSU before this season, but these teams doubled that total this year. The Bulldogs were dominant through most of their victory, before having to hold on late to prevent a furious LSU comeback. And Alabama took every body blow the Bayou Bengals could throw and were never fazed, including what could’ve been a soul crushing fumble deep in their own territory late in the game by TJ Yeldon.

 

In this era of football, where defense has no shot on a week-to-week basis, the fact that both these teams haven’t had that, “We can’t generate a pass rush, stop the run, tackle any ball carriers, or prevent receivers from running through the Grand Canyon-sized holes in our secondary” is extremely impressive, and that’s ultimately why I think these are the nations two best teams. Alabama has been great on defense since Saban’s second year, and that’s really why they’ve been able to dominate college football since 2008. Mississippi State, at least this year, has been the same way. Having a defense you can count on is so rare in football now, but it helps so much when you have that inevitable offensive stinker game (which both schools have had this season).

 

Interestingly enough, these teams play each other this week, in Tuscaloosa. At least right now, I’m leaning towards the Tide, solely because they’re at home. And much like Saturday in Death Valley, I expect it to be a 60 minute slug fest. But more on this game later in the week.

 

It’s time to for me to stop doubting Ohio State

 

I gave the Buckeyes almost no shot to go into East Lansing and beat the Spartans. As always, I was an idiot. Superstar freshman QB J.T. Barrett was fantastic (300 yards passing, 3 passing TDs, 14 carries, 86 yards rushing, 2 TDs), and Ohio State proved they’d come a long way from that embarrassing home loss to Virginia Tech earlier in the season. I’d been sitting back all year, watching them from a distance, doubting their accomplishments, because I just rationalized it in my head that they were doing all of this in an abysmal Big 10, and it was ultimately meaningless. But now, after Saturday night? Sheesh. J.T. Barrett for Heisman? I think it’s a possibility.

 

Right now, regardless of where they played, I’d take them over Florida State. The ‘Noles struggled again on Saturday, this time with Virginia. Really? I’m supposed to believe FSU is one of the four best teams when they’ve trailed 4 times at halftime this season, and could’ve lost five games? They’re in the ACC! That league sucks! If they were actually a top 4 team, they’d be blowing everyone off the field, like they did last year. No disrespect to Duke, but you’re probably not in a great league if the Blue Devils have a chance to win back-to-back Coastal Division titles. It’s ridiculous. And the sad thing is, Florida State is probably going to struggle and look awful a few more times this year, only they’ll win because their schedule is full of a bunch of cupcakes. What a shame. They’re taking a playoff spot away from a really good team.

 

Baylor is the most playoff-deserving team in the Big 12

 

TCU is getting a lot of love right now, which is understandable, because they have a flashy offense that scores a ton of points, but if I had a vote, I’d rank the Bears higher than the Horned Frogs. Why? Because when they played on October 11^th, TCU played matador defense, blew a 21 point lead in the 4^th quarter, and lost. Assuming that both these teams win out and finish with just one loss, that game should be the most important factor when these teams are compared. They played head-to-head, and Baylor proved by winning that they were the better team. And if both teams do finish with just one loss, Baylor will be the Big 12 Champion. How would it make any sense to put the second place team in a conference in the playoff over the conference champion, particularly when that conference champion beat that team head-to-head? You’re right, it wouldn’t. I’d put Baylor 5^th, and keep them above TCU until they lose, which might not happen the rest of the year. Plus, how great did the Bears look on Saturday? I know TCU also had a blowout victory over K-State, but Baylor went into Norman and put it on them for almost the entire game, scoring 45 unanswered points. Baylor should be that team on the fringe of the playoff, not TCU, and I hope the committee wakes up and realizes it.

 

The Fighting Irish punched themselves in the face, and out of the playoff conversation

 

This game was more about what Notre Dame didn’t do than what Arizona State did. Everett Golson played well in stretches, particularly during their comeback from a 34-3 deficit, but he also threw 4 interceptions, and had 3 turnovers in a 4 minute stretch in the first half that all but doomed the Irish from the start. Golson’s actually been a turnover machine this year; including his five on Saturday, he now has 17 in his last 6 games. 17! That’s almost three a game! I hate to put all the blame (or the praise) on one player, particularly the quarterback, after a loss (or win), because that’s such an oversimplification of what happens each week, but in this case, it’s hard not to point at him. Those turnovers were so debilitating, and it put them in an almost impossibly difficult and deep hole at the beginning of the game. And how did Arizona State let them come back? I have no idea. Imagine if Golson had just taken care of the ball just a little bit better. Regardless, those turnovers doomed their entire season, and eliminated them from playoff contention.

 

My 4 Team Playoff

 

1. Mississippi State. It’s the same story every week with this team. They’re undefeated in the best conference in the country, they’ve got Dak Prescott, a Heisman contender, at quarterback, and a great defense.
2. Alabama. I’ve bought some Blake Sims stock, particularly after this week. I still had some questions about his chops in big games, and while he wasn’t spectacular on Saturday (just 209 yards with 2 TDs, all while completing less than 50% of his passes), he did lead them into field goal range, going 55 yards in 50 seconds, on their most important drive of the season, against a swarming and physical LSU defense in the most hostile environment in college football. That’s extremely impressive, if you ask me. But with as good as that defense is, they don’t even really need him to be great every week. They just need him to make a few plays in the passing game and with his legs, and not turn the ball over. I think he can manage that.
3. Oregon. I bumped the Ducks up to number 3 this week, because they’ve been more impressive this season than Florida State ever dreamed of being. They went into Utah and absolutely whipped the Utes like it was nothing, just like they’ve been doing recently. Since their loss to Arizona on October 2^nd, Oregon’s smallest margin of victory has been 12, against UCLA, a game that wasn’t as close as the score would indicate. This, in my opinion, is the best Ducks’ team since the one that lost to Auburn in 2010 BCS Title Game.
4. Florida State. As much as I’d love to leave the Seminoles out of the top 4, I really can’t, because as an undefeated team from a power conference, they’re going to be in the playoff. As much as I don’t like it, I’ll just have to deal with it.

 

Now, onto the NFL…..

 

San Fran silenced their critics, and saved Jim Harbaugh’s job, at least for another week

 

Such a huge win for the Niners. They needed this game badly, and got off to a great start, as they led 21-10 at halftime. But when New Orleans came out and dominated the second half, and took the lead on a Drew Brees to Jimmy Graham TD pass with 1:52, I thought it was over for San Fran. There have been so many times over Colin Kaepernick’s career, in late game situations, where he’d made a horrible decision with the football that led to a game ending turnover. Last year’s interception in the NFC Championship Game (when he challenged Richard Sherman deep, who had great coverage on Michael Crabtree, only to have the ball batted away and picked off) is a perfect example of this, as is last week’s fumble against the Rams near the goal line. And there was no way I thought he’d convert that 4^th and 10. Only, he did, accomplishing it in the most Jekyll and Hyde way possible, a 51 yard bomb to Michael Crabtree, putting them in field goal range. For all the mistakes and bad decisions Kaepernick makes, this guy always seems to make at least one play a week that amazes you. That’s why he’s got so many people who defend him, because he’s got all the tools and skills to consistently be one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

 

But it wasn’t just Kaepernick who stood out. For the second time this year, the Niners, with their backs against the wall, in a big spot, hit the field and gutted out a must-win. The first time it happened was in Week 4, when they beat the Eagles in San Fran to avoid starting 1-3. They won that game with great defense and their famous physical, pounding, running style. They did the same thing this week, running for 144 yards on 32 attempts, holding Brees below 300 yards passing, picking him off twice, and forcing him to fumble in the overtime, which allowed them to kick the game winning field goal. They might not make the playoffs, but they certainly won’t be eliminated from playoff contention without kicking and screaming the entire way there. There’s just too much pride in that locker room for them to go away quietly.

 

The curious case of Dez Bryant

 

Bryant, by all calculations, is one of the best receivers in the NFL, and proved as much yesterday, as he did just about whatever he wanted to against Jacksonville (6 catches, 158 yards, 2 TDs). I could throw out so many more stats to indicate this guy’s greatness (48 career TD catches, almost 5000 career receiving yards, and he’s only played 4 and a half seasons!), or I could show you videos like this one. And the Cowboys know this. They know he’s one of the best 3 receivers in the NFL. But they, understandably, have concerns about Bryant off the field. It was concerning, though not completely shocking, to hear yesterday that the police had been called to Bryant’s residence SIX times to deal with multiple incidents. This is also the same guy that got suspended for almost his entire junior season at Oklahoma State for lying to the NCAA. He also had an extremely questionable and troublesome upbringing, as he was born to a 14 year old mother who was arrested for dealing crack when he was 8 years old. Throw in the fact that he lived in 8 different homes during high school, as well as the fact that he didn’t really ever have a solid and consistent father figure growing up, and it’s really concerning, yet also extremely sad. Should the Cowboys’ really feel comfortable committing guaranteed millions to a guy with so many issues in his personal life? It’s not a completely unreasonable question. Obviously, I don’t know Dez, but if one thing is evident about his character, it’s this: that guy is so freaking competitive, and I’ve never seen him slog through a game, looking like he doesn’t care about what’s going. On game day, that guy is ready to go. He’s out there making plays, throwing a few blocks, and doing whatever his team needs him to do to win. He’s not a quarterback, meaning I don’t really need him to be a leader on my team. I just need him to show up and continue to do Dez Bryant things, which I don’t have any doubt he’ll be able to keep on doing. Plus, it’s not like the Cowboys haven’t been taking almost every precaution possible with him. I mean, they’ve got someone basically baby sitting him 24-7. Give him the money, and keep the baby sitter around. Plus, I think it would be good for Bryant to have some continuity in his life. In his 26 years, he really hasn’t had any consistency in his life (again, no father figure, 8 different homes in high school, mother in jail, etc.) No authority figures have ever made a long term investment in this guy, and allowed him to constantly be involved in something with consistent structure, like a professional football team. Even with all the faults Jerry Jones has, I’d never criticize him for the way he cares about, and takes care of his players. Once you’re a Cowboy, you’re a Cowboy for life. That’s how Jerry does it, and I ultimately can’t see him not trying to do everything he can to help Bryant succeed, not only as a football player, but also as a person. He needs that consistency, and I think Jerry knows that. He’ll get his money, and he’ll be a Cowboy for a long time.

 

Stick a fork in the Cardinals?

 

Last week, I wrote that I believed Arizona, at the midway point in the season, was the best team in the NFL. Carson Palmer’s play at the quarterback position was one of the reasons for that, as well as one of the reasons as to why I thought they’d be Super Bowl contenders throughout the rest of the season. Well, Arizona suffered a huge blow yesterday when Palmer, on a strange play with hardly any contact, tore his ACL in left knee for the second time in his career, ending his season. Drew Stanton was thrust into duty for the second time this year, and actually threw a huge TD pass to John Brown on his first pass. Stanton was serviceable in the 4 games he played this year (3 TDs, no picks), but after hearing that Arizona was fearful Palmer had torn his ACL, I pondered the question I asked about the Dolphins and Chiefs last week: can I see a scenario where that starting quarterback (in this case, Drew Stanton) could be lifting up the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the year? Meaning, could Stanton get hot for 3 or 4 weeks, play extremely well, and propel his team to a Super Bowl victory? You aren’t going to win the Super Bowl without great quarterback play (it hasn’t happened since 2002 with Tampa Bay and Brad Johnson); is there a chance I’d ever say, “Man, Drew Stanton is great!” Unfortunately, I don’t think there is. I still think the Cards will make the playoffs, and they may even win their division, and get the one seed, but somebody with a hotter quarterback, and a defense that can get consistent pressure on the QB, will defeat them in the playoffs.

 

Now quickly, from my Angry Old Man, who called me on the phone on Friday, ranting and raving about new Tennessee basketball coach, Donnie Tyndall, who is now under NCAA investigation for things that happened at his previous job, Southern Miss. My Old Man wasn’t a fan of the hire to begin with. I couldn’t understand all of his points, because he just started snarling about halfway through, making strange, angry noises. Here’s what I caught:

 

“Aargh! I wanted Gregg Marshall, not this smiling buffoon! I don’t even care that his wife is way better looking than him! How is it possible that Buzz Williams (the former head coach at Marquette) took a pay cut to go to Virginia Tech, one of the worst jobs in the ACC, when Tennessee, which I think is a pretty good job, was open? And for all this talk about how they couldn’t hire back Bruce Pearl because of his NCAA trouble, how could they hire a guy who is now potentially in NCAA trouble? If it’s proven he lied to UT on signing his ‘Memorandum of Understanding’, he should be fired immediately! Let’s not be hypocrites! Maybe if your hearing wasn’t so impaired from that dumb boom bang music, or rap crap, or whatever you dang kids call it, you’d actually be able to learn something from your pops instead of making crappy football picks every week!”

 

He then violently hung the phone up, as he often does when he’s riled up (which is just about all the time). However, he did make some good points. I never liked the hire in the first place, just because I felt like Tennessee is the type of program that could make more splashy hire than that. I mean, really? Donnie Tyndall? I’m not saying I won’t be rooting for him to do well, and I hope he wins a national title, but I’m not overly optimistic about the program with him in charge of it. I just don’t understand how they weren’t able to hire a bigger name, someone like a Buzz Williams, a guy who has had a lot of success at Marquette. You’re not going to be able to convince me that Virginia Tech is a better basketball job than Tennessee. The Vols’ program has more fan support than any program in the SEC besides Kentucky (they have the enormous Thompson-Boling Arena, which is packed for almost every game), they’ve got great facilities, and you can win big there. They’ve been to the Sweet Sixteen four times in the last eight years! If you can win back-to-back national titles at Florida (a program with less fan support), you should be able to win ONE at Tennessee.

 

Now, if it comes out that Tyndall was dishonest, and lied to Tennessee, should he be fired? It certainly would make sense, and be consistent with what the Vols did in the past, particularly with Pearl. And why even hire a guy like Tyndall, who already got in trouble at Morehead State for committing NCAA violations? My only concern about firing Tyndall would be that this season is now, more than likely, a lost year. This team was already going to have a down season (they lose Jordan McRae, Jarnell Stokes, and Jeronne Maymon, only their three best players), and I can’t imagine firing a coach just days before the season starts will help. But if he was dishonest, and Tennessee is concerned about being perceived as hypocritical, then he probably should be gone.

 

Speaking of college basketball, with the season tipping off on Friday, I'll have some sort of preview for that later in the week, as well as something NBA related. So keep an eye out for that.

 

Enjoy Monday Night Football, and have a great week.

 

 

The Most Important Saturday in College Football; Plus, the end of Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers?

 

 

 

Saturday is, at least up to this point in the season, the most important day in college football. I count six games between ranked teams with playoff implications. And speaking of playoffs, how awesome is it that we now finally have one in college football? Without the playoff system in place, we’d already know (more than likely) that the National Championship Game would feature Florida State (who’s going undefeated), and the SEC Champion (assuming that team has no more than one loss). But now? No one really has any idea what’s going to happen. Almost every one loss team is still alive, and there’s so much more at stake for so many more teams as the season winds down. Interesting. I thought the playoff would kill the importance of the regular season? Oh wait, that’s just what the clowns who supported the BCS said.  

 

College Football Picks (home team in CAPS)…..

 

#15 OKLAHOMA over #12 Baylor

 

Shockingly, this is only the second most important game in the Big 12 this week. I thought this contest would be the one that decided the Big 12 (shows how much I know), but thanks to the Sooners’ two losses, it doesn’t quite have the same sense of importance around it. However, it is a must win for Baylor, who, despite having only one loss, sits at #12, with a ton of teams to jump over if they’re going to have any shot to sneak into the playoffs. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but this game will swing on two things; Oklahoma’s physicality, and their ability to get pressure on the quarterback. Baylor’s biggest problems in their one loss this season (at West Virginia) was the fact that the Mountaineers were so much more physical than them, and that they were able to get pressure on Bryce Petty (he was sacked 4 times). The Sooners have a better and more physical defense, and they’re significantly better at rushing the passer than WVU. The Bears will score some points, but Petty’s also going to be spending a lot of time on his back, staring at the Oklahoma sky, on Saturday afternoon.

 

#9 ARIZONA STATE over #10 Notre Dame

 

The Irish have gotten way too much credit for their close loss at FSU. This is the same Notre Dame team that gave up 43 points to a bad North Carolina squad. Plus, how good is FSU? They could easily have five losses this year. Then again, I’ve never thought, “Oh my gosh, that’s one of the ten best teams in the country. Dang, they’re national title contenders” after watching Arizona State this season. If anything, I was (and have been) disturbed how they got completely destroyed by an above average UCLA team at home. Plus, is there a more shady character in college football than Todd Graham? This is a guy that pulled a Lane Kiffin (heartlessly and nefariously leaving a school after just one season) twice in his coaching career. In his last Kiffin-esque move (when he left Pitt), he didn’t even meet with the players, which is customary when a head coach leaves a school. Instead, he had a text message forwarded to all of them from the director of football operations. Spineless. He makes John Calipari look like a choir boy. I hate even picking a team he coaches, but I just think they’re a little bit better than the Irish. Plus, it’s so hard for college teams to fly across the country and play extremely well, which is exactly what Notre Dame is going to have to do. I like the Sun Devils to win close, and stay alive in the playoff race.

 

#6 TCU over #7 Kansas State

 

I think TCU is going to win the Big 12 (and maybe sneak into the playoffs), despite spending the entire season playing as little defense as possible. I thought they’d trip up last week at West Virginia, but as poorly as they played (particularly Trevone Boykin, who was 12 out of 30 passing for only 166 yards), they somehow found a way to squeak it out. Plus, it helps when an “air it out” coach like Dana Holgorsen inexplicably decides to start playing as conservatively as possible in 4^th quarter when his team has the lead. Nice job Coach H. I don’t expect Boykin, or that offense, to struggle two weeks in a row (this is the same unit that scored 82 points against Texas Tech on October 25^th). They’ll get back on track this week.

 

#8 MICHIGAN STATE over #14 Ohio State

 

The Buckeyes last victory over a Top 15 team was when they beat #12 Wisconsin, in Columbus, on October 29^th, 2011. You have to go all the way back to 2009 to find the last time they won a road game against a Top 15 team. And then you look at their schedule this year; where are the impressive wins? Who have they beaten that makes you say, “Wow, Ohio State is pretty good”? If anything, that Virginia Tech game, as long ago as it was, is still front and center in my mind when I think about the Buckeyes this season. Granted, Michigan State’s resume isn’t much better, though they do have a victory over a pretty good Nebraska team, as well as an okay showing at Autzen Stadium against Oregon earlier in the year. Everyone has been raving about Ohio St quarterback J.T. Barrett these last few weeks, but it’s not like he’s been lighting up the ’85 Bears every week. Rutgers? Maryland? Illinois? He’s never faced a defense as good as Michigan State’s (which gives up only 279.4 yards per game, 5^th best in the country), and he’s still just a freshman, starting on the road in a tough environment against the best and most physical team he’s ever faced. The drought against Top 15 teams on the road will continue for Ohio State, and the Spartans will keep their playoff hopes alive for another week.

 

#4 Oregon over #17 UTAH

 

What a gut punch loss for the Utes last week. Their kicker, “Amazing Andy”, (who made 87% of kicks this season) missed both of his attempts on the game tying field goal in overtime, allowing the Sun Devils and shady Todd Graham to eek out a close victory. What makes that even worse is that they don’t even get a chance to catch their breath after that heartbreaker, because the Ducks from Oregon are coming to town. Oregon is firing on all cylinders right now, and they’re just blowing teams off the field. Just ask Stanford, their latest victim, who they overwhelmed from start to finish. I thought this game would be close last week. Now? Not so much. I expect it to be another good ole fashioned Oregon whooping, something like 45-24.

 

#5 Alabama over #16 LSU

 

I went back and forth on this one more than any other game this week. Tiger Stadium, at night, is a crazy place. Weird stuff happens. The ball just seems to bounce LSU’s way almost every time, and they catch every break. It’s one of the few home venues in sports that really make a difference. Plus, Les Miles has been dynamite in night home games, as he’s 46-3 in them since taking over the program. Physically, the Tigers can match up with the Tide. Why am I fighting this? Why don’t we just do this….

 

#16 LSU over #5 Alabama

 

For all the reasons I just mentioned. Plus, I don’t completely trust ‘Bama’s quarterback, Blake Sims, in a big spot, on the road, in a crazy environment like Death Valley. You saw what that place did to Bo Wallace, who I think is a better QB. And yes, I realize Vegas is in love with the Crimson Tide, and they’d be a favorite against every single team in the country. And yes, I did have Alabama ranked 2^nd in my most recent college football playoff rankings, but that doesn’t mean I think they’re incapable of losing, particularly in a place like Tiger Stadium, which seems to give LSU magic powers. This game will be close throughout, but I think the Tigers will catch some weird break at the end of the game that propels them to the victory. And yes, this game will be ugly, and low scoring. It might end up being 13-10, or even the iconic 9-6 like this game was three years ago.

 

 

NFL Picks

 

This is a strangely weak NFL slate. There just isn’t a whole lot there on Sunday, or at least compared to the last few weeks. At any rate, let’s run through some of the highlights…..

 

CHIEFS over Bills

 

I have an admission to make before I continue any further with this game. About two weeks ago, when the Bills rolled into their bye week an impressive 5-3, I overreacted and said I thought the Bills were going to win 10 games and make the playoffs. I came to this conclusion mostly because I stupidly overlooked how good Kansas City was, and how well they’d been playing. I also forgot that I probably should’ve made the rule “You should never pick a team quarterbacked by Kyle Orton to make the playoffs, because that’ll probably blow up in your face quicker than Mount St. Helens”. The Chiefs are just better than Buffalo, and will prove it this week. I haven’t given them enough credit for being good, mostly because I don’t trust Alex Smith. But in the regular season, he’s fine (most of the time), and you can make the playoffs if you start him. Buffalo’s pretty good in the trenches (they absolutely whooped the Jets their two weeks ago), but KC isn’t bad either, and they’re a little bit healthier (Buffalo’s two best backs, CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, are both banged up). They’ll take care of business on Sunday in Buffalo.

 

LIONS over Dolphins

 

Or in other words, “The Majority of People Don’t Actually Think We’re Legit” Bowl. I have my doubts about both teams, though they have spent most of the year winning the games they should win. I actually think the Jim Caldwell hiring has done wonders for Detroit. As much as I’ve made fun of him for his blank facial expression (he’d react the same way to winning the Mega Millions Jack Pot as he would to having all of his limbs cut off Anakin Skywalker-style in the movie Revenge of the Sith), I think he’s actually got the right temperament to deal with all the brash and loud characters on this team. Jim Schwartz, an overbearing, arrogant, and out of control maniac, only reinforced, and sometimes sent overboard, this team’s attitude and swagger. Caldwell has combated that, and he’s mellowed them out a little bit. And they definitely needed it. Plus, there defense is ferocious (they allow the fewest yards per game in the league), and Matthew Stafford is playing very well this year, mostly without his best weapon, Megatron. I think they eat up Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins this week, and move to 7-2, something almost no one predicted at the beginning of the year.

 

PACKERS over Bears

 

This is the end for Chicago this season (and maybe Mark Trestman forever, though I think he deserves another year. That defense is awful, and he was brought in to fix that offense, something he’s done fairly well). Jay Cutler is 1-9 all time against Green Bay, and this team, reeling after so many horrible performances, isn’t going into Lambeau and winning. I don’t trust Cutler in a big game (like this one), and it’s more likely that my limbs will start stretching like Mr. Fantastic than it is that the Chicago defense will finally show up and stop somebody. Fun fact: I picked the Bears to go to the NFC Championship Game before the season started. Whoops.

 

SAINTS over 49ers

 

The biggest game in the NFL this week, in my opinion. It’s basically an elimination game for the Niners, as they really can’t afford to drop to 4-5 with only seven games left. Off their bye week last Sunday, San Francisco played one of their worst games since Harbaugh got there, as they only managed 10 points at home while giving up 8 sacks. Meanwhile, New Orleans has quietly been impressive two weeks in a row (their beat down of Green Bay on Sunday night, followed by their victory in Carolina last Thursday), and seem to be rounding into the team we thought they’d be before the season started. I get Brees and Payton, at home, against a 49ers team that’s falling apart, quarterbacked by Colin Kaepernick, the NFL’s version of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde…. I mean, isn’t it pretty obvious? It’s got to be the Saints.

 

And if they do lose on Sunday, this will be the end of Jim Harbaugh. And it’s a shame, because I think he’s one of the five best coaches in the NFL. I don’t think he’ll get fired on Monday, but he won’t be back next season. It’s been established that he and general manager Trent Baalke get along about as well the Bloods and Crips, but they’ve managed to make it work because they’ve been winning. But now, with the number of appalling losses that have piled up, coupled with the fact that Harbaugh’s contract is up after next season makes me think he won’t be around in 2015 (and believe me, he won’t be back next year unless he gets a new contract. He’s not going into next year as a lame duck head coach. He’s going to want some security). If Harbaugh doesn’t return, won’t the Niners be an interesting job, with many smart people vying for that head coaching position? An extremely talented roster that just spent the 2014 season underachieving, with an inconsistent yet spectacular young quarterback. This will be the best job opening in the NFL.

 

Other NFL picks

 

BENGALS over Browns (Yes, I whiffed on this one. Badly. Thank you Andy Dalton!)

 

RAVENS over Titans

 

Cowboys over Jaguars (in London)

 

Don’t start Tony Romo this week. Give his back another two weeks (their bye week is next week) to heal. You should be able to beat the Jags with Brandon Weeden. Heck, you should be able to beat the Jags starting Jamarcus Russell. Just have him turn and hand it to Demarco Murray and Joseph Randle 40 times if you need to. You don’t want Romo to take another shot and miss significantly more time.

 

Steelers over JETS

 

Falcons over BUCS

 

Atlanta picks up their first victory since Week 3! Congrats! Despite being one of the five worst teams in the league, they’re still somehow alive in the NFC South race.

 

Broncos over RAIDERS

 

SEAHAWKS over Giants

 

CARDINALS over Rams

 

EAGLES over Panthers

 

I can’t believe I’m picking a team that’s starting Mark Sanchez at quarterback. What am I thinking? Then again, he did look surprisingly competent last week when he came in against Houston. So who knows?

 

Like always, enjoy football this weekend. You deserve it.

The Week in Football: Butch Jones is a Genius? Plus, another Ole Miss Gut Punch Loss, and NFL Power Rankings

On Saturday night in Columbia, Tennessee pulled off their most improbable victory since the 2005 game in Baton Rouge against LSU. You know, the game where the Vols trailed 21-0 at halftime, Erik Ainge played so horribly that he got pulled midway through the second quarter for Rick Clausen (Ainge finished the game 7-19 for 54 yards, with a pick six and a horrible fumble that set up an LSU touchdown), only Clausen was amazingly able to bring Tennessee back to win 30-27 in overtime. It’s been nine years since the Vols pulled one out that they shouldn’t have, and that’s why this one was so special. For years and years, Tennessee has been on the wrong side of these games (13 men on the field against LSU in 2010, the blocked kick at the end of the game against Alabama in 2009, the Florida games the last two years, etc.). It was just nice to finally win one.

 

Which brings me to my next point…..

 

Why in the world was Josh Dobbs not starting at the beginning of the year?

 

This literally, and never will, make any sense to me. It’s been obvious since he stepped on the field that he completely changes the make up and dynamic of the offense. It’s funny how no one has mentioned how bad the offensive line is the last two weeks, because when there are breakdowns in protection (and there’s still been many the last two weeks), Dobbs can use his legs to escape the pocket and make a play, either by running the ball (which he did for a school record 166 yards on Saturday night) or throwing downfield to those big, physical, speedy receivers. Justin Worley and the Worst Quarterback in the History of the Program had no chance when there were rushers in the backfield, because those guys are about as mobile as a house phone. But Dobbs changes everything for them. They don’t win that game on Saturday with anyone else back there.

 

Also, I find it interesting how the narrative on Butch Jones among Vol fans has completely flipped. Since the Florida game, everybody’s been down on him, questioning his decision making in crisis, his clock management, and wondering why in the BLEEP he wasn’t starting Dobbs at the beginning of the year. His stock had never been lower. But on Saturday night, after their comeback victory, Vol Nation was suddenly acting like Butch was the second coming of Christ, and that Tennessee had won the national title. I saw you guys on Twitter and Facebook, and it was a little…. disconcerting. Let’s not forget that this was the same guy who threw his hands up and trotted Nathan Peterman out there on multiple occasions. And yes, I realize Butch wanted to redshirt Dobbs this season so he’d have 3 years eligibility remaining, but that doesn’t mean it was a smart decision, or a defensible one. What if the Vols had started Dobbs at the beginning of the year? How many wins would they have? I don’t think they’d win at Oklahoma, at Ole Miss, or against Alabama, but besides that, what games would they have lost? As well as Worley played against Georgia, I still think the Vols win that game if Dobbs had started it. Tennessee jumped all over Georgia early, and they would’ve been able to keep their foot on the gas if Worley hadn’t gotten hurt. His injury forced Peterman into action, who played like a scared freshman suiting up for the first time with the varsity. I’m pretty sure they’d still have that lead over Georgia early if Dobbs started, and they would’ve been able to keep it with him at the helm. And there’s no way they’d lose that Florida game if Dobbs was in there. All they needed to do was score more than 9 points. Heck, they scored 14 points in the last 4:52 of the fourth quarter on Saturday. I think he could’ve managed that. And no, I don’t hate Butch, and in a lot of ways, I’m a fan of his. But that doesn’t mean I think he’s done a great job this year. I’m a pretty big Vol homer, but I can’t just suddenly forget about the questionable things that have happened in Knoxville, on Butch’s watch, this season, after they win one SEC road game. This fan base was, and still is, desperate for a winner. Why not start the guy that gives you the best chance to win? Why not go all in on this season? Do you realize that if Tennessee had won the Florida and Georgia games, they’d be 6-3, and in control of their own destiny in the SEC East? And it’s not like they’ve got a brutal end to the season. The two toughest remaining games on the schedule, Missouri and Kentucky, are both at home. They could’ve easily been the SEC East champions this year. How much momentum and pride would that give this program heading into next season if they’d played in the SEC Championship Game, regardless of the result? The division was there to be won. If only Butch had decided this year was more important than the 2017 season.

 

Ole Miss Clemson’d for the second straight week

 

It’s really a shame. For those of you that don’t know what “Clemson’d” means, it’s pretty much when you blow a game after you’ve been given chance after chance to win it, just like the Clemson Tigers do at least once a year on the football field (see this year’s Florida State game if you still have any questions). But back to Ole Miss. After last week’s debacle in Tiger Stadium, the Rebels followed it up with another gut punch loss, this time at the hands of Auburn. Ole Miss fumbled on back-to-back possessions in the red zone late in the game as they were driving for the winning touchdown. Plus, on that second fumble, they lost their best receiver, Laquan Treadwell, for the rest of the season with a broken leg and dislocated ankle, as the pain from his injury caused him to lose the ball on the one yard line. Oh, and I forgot to mention that they’ve essentially been eliminated from the college football playoff. Not a great two weeks for the Rebels. And honestly, I feel bad for them. I really do. This was their best team since the ‘60s, or at least since Eli Manning was there. They’ve had some great moments this year, but almost all will be forgotten after what’s happened over the last two games. All they really have left is to play the role of spoiler (they host Mississippi State the Saturday after Thanksgiving), but if that’s what this season turns into, it will be extremely disappointing, because they had the potential for so much more.

 

How much luckier can Auburn get?

 

Let’s run through the lucky breaks Auburn has gotten since they fired Tommy Tuberville after the 2008 season….

 

1. Cam Newton got paid thousands of dollars to play football for Auburn for one season. His dad was literally selling his sons services to the highest bidder, only the NCAA was unable to find “sufficient evidence” to do anything about it (probably because that would mean forcing Auburn to vacate a national championship, something the NCAA doesn’t want to do). Cecil Newton, Cam’s father, reportedly told Mississippi State boosters that it would take between 100,000 and 180,000 dollars for his son to attend that school, something the boosters were willing to pay for. Apparently, they weren’t the only ones willing to throw some cash around, because if they were, Cam would’ve ended up there. But since he didn’t, it’s obvious that Cecil had the same deal with the Tigers (and probably many other schools), and that Auburn outbid everyone. Also, your not going to convince me that Cam was clueless about what his father was doing, which the NCAA claimed to be the case. Why would, or how could, Cecil be selling his son to schools if he had no guarantee that Cam would go play for that program? Did he think he’d be able to convince his son to go play for the highest bidder without telling him about how that school was dropping thousands of dollars for his services? There’s a better chance of Lil Wayne putting out a good album than that being true. The NCAA blew this one, and they stuck their heads in the sand, once again proving how hypocritical and corrupt that organization is. In fact, the only good thing about that situation was that everybody could make the, “Cam Newton took a pay cut to go to the NFL” joke. Classic.
2. During that same season, Auburn got off to a horrible start against Alabama and trailed 24-0 during the second quarter. Suddenly, the Tigers began to catch a bunch of breaks (including the first fumble of the season for Mark Ingram as he was nearing the end zone), and they shockingly came back to win the Iron Bowl 28-27. It was the biggest comeback victory in the history of the program, and the Tigers won the national title a little over a month later.
3. After a 2012 campaign that saw Auburn go 3-9 (and 0-8 in conference), Gene Chizik, who had won a national title only two years earlier, was fired. The Tigers hired former offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, who immediately and curiously turned everything around, as they won the SEC title and played in the National Championship Game. Only Auburn would be able to fire a national championship winning coach two years after he won it, and then hire a guy who would immediately take them back there.
4. During that miracle 180 degree 2013 season, they had this amazing hail mary to beat Georgia, which was somehow only the second most improbable victory of the season.
5. The Kick Six. Honestly, I don’t really need to say anything besides that.

 

So while the two Ole Miss fumbles in the red zone late in the game on Saturday night would be thrilling and amazing for every other school, it’s just typical for Auburn. I’d feel bad for them blowing a big lead against Florida State last year, except that was really the only time over the last few years that they were unlucky. The breaks have to go against them at some point right? Regardless, I’m tired of Auburn and their luck. I’ll probably root against them in every game for the rest of eternity.

 

Will Muschamp saves his job…. for now

 

I don’t understand what happened in Jacksonville on Saturday. It was probably the most confusing victory of the entire football season. Florida had looked so bad all year, and their offense was anemic from day one. But suddenly, this physical, overpowering running game sprouted up out of nowhere. The Gators ran for 418 yards, and Treon Harris only attempted 6 passes the whole game. Honestly, I’m not sure which stat is more amazing. And how did Georgia allow themselves to be dominated by this run-heavy Gators’ offense? How could they not just load up with nine guys in the box and stop them? Florida obviously wasn’t interested in throwing the ball, and their play calling indicated that. I don’t have any answers. If I did, I wouldn’t have picked Georgia to win by at least 4 touchdowns. In fact, the only thing that I really can make sense of with this game is that Will Muschamp probably bought himself a tiny bit of job security. He got his first win in this rivalry (he was 0-4 as a player at Georgia, and 0-3 as Florida’s coach), and they did it in a dominating fashion, as they completely dominated from the opening kickoff to the final whistle. I don’t think Muschamp is a good coach, and as a Vol fan, I actually hope Florida has a good finish to the year, and does enough to convince Athletic Director Jeremy Foley to bring back that clown next season. Anytime the Gators are horrible and inept, it brings me joy. Then again, as terrible as Florida has been during his tenure, Tennessee hasn’t beaten him yet. Those are the types of things that make me want to smother myself with a pillow.

 

My 4 Team Playoff

 

1. Mississippi State. The Bulldogs held on late at home to beat Arkansas 17-10, though they looked far from the dominant force that they were earlier in the season. Still, they belong at number 1, because of they’re undefeated in the best conference in the country. It will be interesting to see how they play in two weeks when they travel to Alabama, who I think is the most underrated team in the country. And how bad do you feel if you’re an Arkansas fan? They haven’t won an SEC game since they beat Kentucky on October 13^th, 2012. It’s been a rough two years in Fayetteville.
2. Alabama. I bumped the Crimson Tide over Florida State this week, because I haven’t been impressed by the ‘Noles at any point this season. Vegas says ‘Bama would be favored over any team in the country right now, and I believe them. They seem to have gotten back on track offensively after their middle of the season offensive no-shows against Ole Miss and Arkansas. This week, they’ll play in one of my favorite rivalries of the season, as they travel to Tiger Stadium, at night, to take on LSU. Crazy things happen in night games against the Bayou Bengals at home. Just ask Bo Wallace. I think the Tide will win, but Les Miles is 46-3 in these situations. Don’t be shocked if the Tigers pull of their second huge upset at home in two weeks.
3. Florida State. The Seminoles, in my opinion, aren’t one of the ten best teams in the country. They easily could’ve lost five games this year (on a neutral field against Oklahoma State, at home against Clemson, at home against Notre Dame, at NC State, and at Louisville), and yet, they’ve always found a way to gut it out. And honestly, as much as I’ve been critical of Jameis Winston for being a clown off the field, I’ll give him credit for being great every time his team’s been trailing. But that still doesn’t change the fact that they’d have at least two losses if they were in the SEC. They’re fortunate that they play in the cupcake conference, the ACC, which has allowed them to be mediocre and still remain undefeated. I think they’ll finish the year that way, because the schedule really isn’t that challenging (home against Virginia, at Miami, home against Boston College, home against Florida, and the ACC Championship Game), which will allow them to make it into the playoff, where they’ll lose their first game.
4. Oregon. I’ll defiantly keep the Ducks here, mostly because I’m just tired of Auburn, though they did show me something this week by going into Oxford and winning. It was their first really impressive showing of the season, unless you want to count their victory over an LSU team that was starting a true freshman at quarterback for the first time on the road. But let’s not forget how good Oregon has been. Besides the Arizona game, where they were extremely banged up on the offensive line, they’ve been blasting people every week. Stanford was just the latest victim in a long line of butt-kickings. Plus, if they win out, they’re going to make it into the playoff. The Pac 12 is the second best conference in the country, and if they can make it through that league with only one loss, it’d be extremely impressive. I think they will.

 

I’d rank Auburn 5^th and TCU 6^th. Keep an eye on the Horned Frogs. They won at West Virginia this week, destroying my prediction that the Mountaineers would win the Big 12 (darn you Dana Holgorsen and your suddenly conservative play calling at the end of the game!). If they can win at home against Kansas State this week, they might be able to sneak into the playoff as another one loss conference champion. It’s in play.

 

NFL Power Rankings

 

A lot of interesting things happened in the NFL on Sunday. And in celebration of the NFL reaching the halfway point, I’ll celebrate it the only way I know how: power rankings, but this time in reverse order, from 32 to 1.

 

32. Oakland Raiders

31. Tampa Bay Bucs

30. Jacksonville Jaguars

29. New York Jets

28. Atlanta Falcons

27. Tennessee Titans

26. Washington Redskins

 

Lots and lots of bad football. And here’s the hilarious thing: The NFC South is so bad that Atlanta, who is one of the five worst teams in the league, is still in contention for the division! They’re only two games out! How is that possible? They haven’t won since Week 3! But besides Atlanta, all these teams have pretty much been eliminated from postseason play. And the Falcons would be if they were in any other division.

 

25. Chicago Bears

24. New York Giants

23. Minnesota Vikings

22. Carolina Panthers

21. St Louis Rams

20. Houston Texans

All these teams are teetering on the brink of elimination, and they’d better start stringing together some wins if they want their season to continue. In fact, I’d say that all these  teams that aren’t on their bye week have virtual elimination games this week (except Carolina, because their division sucks). Chicago travels to Green Bay; the Giants play at home tonight against the Colts, and then are at Seattle; and the Rams play in Arizona. Good luck.

 

19. San Francisco 49ers

18. New Orleans Saints

 

These disappointing teams, who both had Super Bowl aspirations at the beginning of the year, actually play each other in New Orleans this week. This is almost a must-win for the Niners. They really can’t afford, like the Saints, to drop to 4-5. Their division is too strong, and they would have too many NFC teams to jump over in the Wild Card race. I’ve been higher on San Francisco than most this year, but if they lose on Sunday, this season has a lot of potential to quickly and furiously spiral downwards. That loss to the Rams yesterday was awful. Granted, St Louis has shown some signs this year, and been impressive at times, but if you’re the Niners, that’s a game you have to win. You can’t, at home, score only 10 points and give up eight sacks. You just can’t.

 

17. Cleveland Browns

16. Buffalo Bills

15. Baltimore Ravens

 

All middle of the road teams, though I still maintain that the Bills will find a way to incredibly slip into the playoffs (their schedule is too easy for them to not win at least 10 games). Cleveland, as shocking as it is that they’re 5-3, did lose to Jacksonville, and I’m actually not sure how good Brian Hoyer is. I was a fan of his last year, and earlier this season, but he didn’t exactly light up the three worst teams in the league the last three weeks (3 TDs and 3 picks in those games, including a terrible performance against the Jaguars where he completed only 39% of his passes). Plus, they’re the worst team in their division, and I think they’ll finish in last even if they go 8-8. And I have no idea what to do with Baltimore. They only have one win against a really good team (Pittsburgh in Week 2); besides that, they’ve struck out against the best of the NFL (Indy, Pittsburgh last night, and twice against Cincinnati). Maybe they just aren’t that good.

 

14. San Diego Chargers

 

My Angry Old Man texted me angrily yesterday about my preseason AFC Super Bowl pick, saying, “You fool! I told you San Diego wasn’t that good, but like always, you never listen to your Pops! 37-0 yesterday?! What a bunch of clowns! There’s a better chance of me going to a Kanye West concert than there is of the Bolts going to the Super Bowl! You don’t know how lucky you are to have me around to tell you how the world works! Why don’t you go back to salivating over regular season NBA games instead of insulting our intelligence with your crappy football picks?”

 

Like always, he was riled up. And yeah, it’s been a rough three weeks for the Chargers. Rivers was Geno Smith-level-bad yesterday (52.2 completion percentage, 138 yards, 0 TDs, 3 picks), and the defense was abysmal for the third straight game. Is there a team that needed its bye week more than San Diego?

 

That loss yesterday was terrible, and I don’t have any excuses for it. Sometimes you just don’t have it on a particular day, and you get embarrassed in every facet of the game. It happens. They’re just so banged up right now (Donald Brown returned from injury yesterday, but wasn’t much help, as he only had 4 carries for 23 yards), but having this week off will only help them, as it gives them a chance to catch their breath, and it also gives those guys who are banged up an extra week to get healthy. I’m sticking by this team. Plus, they’ve always been a squad that plays better in December than they do in October. Heck, just last year, they looked done after starting the year 5-7, before they won their last 4 games to sneak into the playoffs. And in those playoffs, they defeated Cincinnati in the Wild Card Round, and followed that up by giving Denver everything they could handle in the Divisional Playoffs. They’re a second half team. They’ll be fine.

 

13. Miami Dolphins

12. Kansas City Chiefs

 

I’ve got the Chiefs in front of the Dolphins only because they won in South Florida in Week 3. But Miami certainly has been impressive over the last few weeks, including the aforementioned dismantling of the Chargers yesterday. Here’s the only question for these teams: can you really see Alex Smith or Ryan Tannehill lifting up the Lombardi Trophy? In fact, that’s a good question for every team that thinks its a contender: can you see your starting quarterback holding the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the year? If the answer is no, then go ahead and mentally prepare yourself for a disappointing and unsatisfactory end to the season. Every quarterback since Brad Johnson in 2002 has either been one of the best QBs in the league, or got extremely hot in the playoffs (Eli Manning in 2007, Joe Flacco in 2012). You’ve got to have elite play from the quarterback position to win the Super Bowl. I can’t see Smith or Tannehill (who aren’t among the best QBs in the league) putting together a 4 game run of dominance like Flacco did two years ago.

 

11. Green Bay Packers

10. Seattle Seahawks

 

Two teams with fatal flaws that could ultimately end up preventing them from reaching their goal. For the Pack, they’re too Aaron Rodgers dependent, as they can’t run the ball (they’re 24^th in yards per game) or stop anybody on defense (they’re 25^th in yards allowed per game). And Seattle isn’t good offensively at all. They don’t get any big plays from the passing game, and while they still run the ball well (they’re second in the league in rush yards per game), you can’t win playoff games, much less the Super Bowl, if you have to dink and dunk your way down the field because you don’t have any game breaking plays (see the New England Patriots since 2004).

 

9. Pittsburgh Steelers

8. Cincinnati Bengals

 

These two will be fighting out for the division title, and as much as I’d like to side with the more dependable quarterback (Roethlisberger), Cincy’s roster is just better, and I ultimately think they’ll gut it out and win this division, which might be the best in the NFL. Quick tangent on the Steelers: who thought James Harrison, at age 36, a guy who hadn’t had a meaningful NFL moment in years, would make a huge impact, both culturally, and on the field, for this team? This defense looks like the Steelers of five years ago. They’re constantly flying to the ball, and they get pressure on the quarterback whenever they want. And how good has Roethlisberger been the last few weeks? Sheesh. This is a Super Bowl contender.

 

7. Philadelphia Eagles

6. Dallas Cowboys

5. Detroit Lions

 

I’ve got the Eagles ranked this low because they’ll now be starting Mark Sanchez at quarterback for the next several weeks. Who knows when Nick Foles will be back from his broken collarbone? Dallas has got their own issues at quarterback. Tony Romo, who had back surgery at the end of last season, just suffered ANOTHER back injury. Reportedly, he has two fractured vertebrae in his back, which sounds about as fun as going to the dentist. They aren’t going to win a playoff game starting Brandon Weeden at QB, a guy who looked lost almost the entire game yesterday.

 

And then we’ve got the Lions, who I don’t completely trust yet. Yeah, statistically they’ve got the best defense in the NFL, and Matt Stafford has played pretty well this year, but there’s just something shady about this team. It probably has something to do with the fact that they’ve been inept for half a century. But for now, with as well as that defense is playing, coupled with how the other NFC contenders have struggled with injuries or poor play, I can’t put them lower than 5^th.

 

4. Indianapolis Colts

3. Denver Broncos

2. New England Patriots

 

The class of the AFC thus far. Indy should bounce back tonight, fresh off their torching in Pittsburgh. I expect them to be in the thick of things for the rest of the year in the AFC.

 

I’ve been a seller on the Pats all year, and I still don’t think they can win the Super Bowl because they don’t have any weapons on the outside. But anyone that was panicking earlier in the season, declaring Brady and Belichick’s run to be over, is a fool. They’ve really struggled early in the regular season the last few years, before they inevitably round into shape in October in November. And they kick everyone in the head for two straight months. It happens every year. They’re going to be AFC contenders as long as Brady and Belichick are involved.

 

I was a little worried about Denver going into that game yesterday as soon as I heard the forecast: cold and windy. Basically, Peyton Manning’s kryptonite. He’s never been the same dude outside in cold weather, and now that he’s had 3 neck surgeries, his ball flutters through the air at times, even on warm days. But when it’s cold and windy outside, with a weakened arm, it becomes so much harder for him to be successful. Brady isn’t bothered by the weather (and never has been), as he can still power his throws through the elements. That’s why Brady’s been so much more successful in the playoffs than Manning. The possibility of having a playoff game, either in Denver or somewhere else, with snow or heavy winds, could ultimately cripple the Broncos this season.

 

1. Arizona Cardinals

 

This is a team that’s 7-1, despite the fact that they started Drew Stanton at quarterback for a long stretch of the season. They’ve got a great defense, playmakers everywhere on offense, and one of the best coaches in the NFL in Bruce Arians, who should be the coach of the year. Carson Palmer, who everybody thought was done 3 years ago, has been really good (11 TDs and only 2 picks in five games this year). In fact, that’s really the only question for this team: can Palmer keep it up? Because they’re awesome everywhere else. Regardless, they’ve been the best team in the NFL through the first 9 weeks.